Rick and Doc chat markets and economic data points
Rick Ackerman and Richard “Doc” Postma team up this morning to chat about the recent US retail sales number (lower than expected) and how the direction they see the markets moving. No one is saying that these markets are going to move significantly higher, so then why bother staying in them…
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Canadians are tapped out, regardless if the USD is strong or not. In my neck of the woods (Montreal) job losses are pilling up. Also, housing prices are starting to fall, which doesn’t bode well for people who paid $300,000 for their house… and let’s not forget the renovations. We have quite a problem up here in the Great White North.
No job…….no income……………..no house payment………..no house., over supply comes to mind, lower prices are on the way.
Doc, are you by any chance watching the Hui? I mentioned a few days back what I was noticing about the similarity of the magnitude and term of the declines in the past three years to the corresponding strength of the rise between 2003 and 2006. To me there looks to be a certainty that the HUI will fall below 100 before any chance of a price recovery is in the cards. You can readily visualize the time period needed before we hit the real bottom (if you squint your eyes a little and relax your mind!) when looking at the very long term charts going back to 2000. Give it a try and you will instantly see what I mean.
I looked at the chart you posted, chart readings got to be an art.
Doc needs to drink a couple of tall tins of Moosehead beer, that will straighten out his chart reading abilities. LOL!
I noticed that NAT was putting on a show today, tomorrow is dividend day! BURP!
Funny guy. Maybe I will pour myself a cold one too. I can even chart upside down.
Tomorrow before the opening, DT; I bet it’s a good report and we most likely might get a spike and then a sell off—NAT is one of my long holds—I’ll most likely not be selling it anytime soon.
lol
Funny on the Moosehead chart analysis DT.
I see it and you make an excellent point—-we have further to fall and could hit 100 easily. I do believe we’re finally beginning the homestretch.
We are on the same wavelength Doc. What is great about charts is how they often help find an answer to a question in both time and price. But this one really does look like it will make nearly a 100% retrace before staging a recovery which is no doubt going to upset some who have predicted that gold would assert itself almost immediately. I side with your assessment that the story must play out until at least mid to late 2016. It really depends on how that chart fulfills the demands now placed on it since there are no major Fibs remaining until we see the year 2000 lows again.
How nuts is that?
Doc, could the bottom for gold be pushed back all the way to 2016 or 2017?
Yes, every webinar Cory and I’ve done, I start out with the monthly chart of gold since I’ve developed the technicals for the position i’ve taken for weeks and months. I’ve also stated innumerable times to listeners going back months to suspect a slow grind down for gold and that the soonest that the next leg of the bull market to take place (and note the word soonest) would be 2016 and probably toward the end of the year. I believe as mentioned in the webinars and which we’ll follow every webinar as the first chart, the monthly chart shows a fallin bullish wedge and we have a while to go before we get to an apex from which we should break out to the upside. If we break the lower support line then we could have a big move down and that would not be good.
Doc – I have really enjoyed your video webinars and have a similar outlook that we are whipsawing in the falling wedge pattern. I am curious as to whether there isn’t precedence of a wedge pattern breaking out quite often before reaching all the way to the apex of the wedge? I’ve seen things break out of a wedges, triangle, and pennant patterns early at times, and so couldn’t we leave the door open for a potential breakout before 2016 if something dramatic happens in the market?
Gary Wagner (using Elliot Wave & Japanese Candlesticks) has had a similar outlook on the falling wedge out into the next 3-6 months. Another guy I follow Jordan Roy-Byrne, and he has been tracking this “falling wedge” pattern all year. I am going to post his latest video from July 8th below as it is very much along the same lines.
Precious Metals Market Update: Final Breakdown In Precious Metals Begins…?
Jordan Roy-Byrne
JULY 08, 2015
http://palisaderadio.com/precious-metals-market-update-final-breakdown-in-precious-metals-begins/
Shad you could have a breakout before we get to the apex and if you draw a line from the highs of 2011 to the next high, you actually have a larger falling wedge pattern.
Yes, I remember you mentioning on the webinar that you could go back to the 2011 highs and have a very large falling wedge pattern, and this one may break sooner.
Thanks and good thoughts Doc.
Shad,
Thanks for the link. Jordan made good sense.
Yes, he is pretty level-headed, has good technical analysis, and his basis outlook seems to align nicely with Doc and Gary Wagner and also Gary Savage.
The only main difference I see in his analysis is that he thinks we may break down below support trend-line in the falling wedge down to the Major Bottom around $1000-1040 (with maybe a little dip down briefly as low as $960), and then at that point start the new PM bull market.
PF – If you didn’t see the last 2 video webinars that Doc, Al, Cory, (and on the last one Chris T.) did, then they are definitely worth checking out. Cheers!
A recovery that impacts everyone won’t ever happen again. One reason is that ‘everyone’ has become such an overwhelming number. As long as the oligarchs (2-300) keep their billionaire status, where’s the reason or incentive to change. Wages have (inflation adjusted)stagnated since the late 70’s and people keep on keeping on since there isn’t much chance to do anything else. What are the answers? I have none and neither do the 20 some clowns who want the job of President.
Nothing new under the sun…….nothing new in the news.
Frank…same ol same ol for the news..continued destruction of the U.S. by the Marxist authoritarian and his co-horts…good news for the distilleries…the more news you hear the more you have to drink….
Funny one Gator……..
Just bragging but I took 9% profit on RUSL today. Missed my 10% target by pennies when I got stopped out at $22.84. I would like to thank Comrade Colonel Mr. President Putin for my profits. 🙂
funny Jason. Good work sir.
You mentioned today that the miners still face a bankruptcy and consolidation phase, that should scare us all. If this destruction of the metals market continues for another year what will be left?
Another question also who is going to supply the metals?
Bankruptcy phase coming………10cents on the dollar………and the banksters with any loans on the property will own them.
Ten cents? Hell Frank, some are already just a nickel based on their 2011 highs. You mean 2 cents I suspect.
Right.
However not all mines are located in North America which is safer for banks to buy. Most mines are in 3rd world.
Actually, I was thinking of a Book I read in the 70’s …called: “Ten Cents on the Dollar”
Yep the banksters with loans will own their mining assets for pennies on the dollar as the bankrupcy phase continues, and the sentiment washout will play limbo with the absurd evaluations. This is where most will throw up their hands and walk away, but really will be the area to build long-term positions on the surviving quality companies.
Good luck to all in their investing.
The ones with a lot of liquidity will last—-that’s one of the big variables when you consider purchasing any of these stocks.
In Toronto working on a film lot. They are saying business hasn’t been this good in 8+ years….no parking spaces left the place is filled with carny looking union labour…nice to see people working, getting a fair wage and the industry on fire!!!
Having The Canadian dollar at 78 cents US is the reason Hollywood North is on a roll.
Kirkland lake is a buy yo!
Yes sir but the uptrend has been in place more than two years. This is before the Can Dollar tanked. Combination of American states closing their tax credit offices and a downtrending dollar and also major directors moving their operations here.
Retail sales: Because of the strong USD we are not getting our normal slew of Canadians and Europeans traveling to NYC for their annual shopping trips. Last time I read about it NYC hotel bookings are down around 30% from Europeans and overseas tourist to Las Vegas and Orlando were down double digits.