Now that the day is over, here is what we think
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Again, it is all about diversification and strong fundamentals.
NOTICED………..the IMF HAS MORE GOLD THAN CHINA…………..?
When someone stores something,,,,that usually means there is VALUE, unless you have a mental disorder. Of which could be true of the IMF.
Just wondering……….has anyone ever seen a chart or graph or memo or any information showing the amount of gold the IMF has or had………wondering minds want to know…………………………………………….ootb
Totally agree w. Mr. T.
When things turn, they can turn quickly. And the worse the sentiment/the larger the net short position, the more intense the snap back is likely to be.
For any idea of what a snap back can lead to, anyone can have a look at a few months back, at for ex. GDX and GDXJ in Nov. 2014 following gold’s year low on the first week of that month.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
No question the miners have been bloodied. Some obviously worse than others. I was looking at Barrick’s chart(ABX) for a refresher and notice it is now back at its 1987 price peak. That’s 28 years ago! And by the looks of it Barrick has further to drop, not that it would surprise anyone here given their debt load.
The HUI and GDX saw another double digit decline today. But I don’t know why anyone here would be very surprised because we saw this coming from a mile off. Gold was testing its lows and the probabilities favoured a breakdown.
We got that in spades. Gold and silver remain in a bear market just as they have been for the past four plus years and as such should not be bought except by short term traders.
Basically, metals markets must complete their retrace and finish correcting back to old lows. Sounds dumb doesn’t it? But what is in motion tends to remain in motion until another force comes into play to stop the momentum. In the case of silver it should have been obvious to all that after its 2011 parabolic climb that the bursting of that bubble told us something important.
All we needed to understand was the basic principles behind speculative chart formations to know that the price collapse could not be reversed until silver had returned to almost the place it began its climb.
Hope springs eternal I guess. I just don’t know why smart guys forget their chart basics when it comes to precious metals or what drives their optimism in the face of relentless declines.
Off topic, but worth listening to:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/6998/batchelor-cohen-discuss-brics-and-sco
I must be in a disagreeable mood today!
There are times to be diversified, and there are times not to be diversified.
I believe when things are on sale IS THE TIME when you should overweight in the cheap items.
So I’m buying physical silver. I will continue to buy physical silver until about 50% of my net worth is in silver.
And I will worry less about the physical silver in my possession in two different countries on two different continents, than I will worry about three years of living expenses that I keep in cash in several different banks. Regardless of what silver prices may drop to, there will be a time when it will have more purchasing power per oz than $15, but on the other hand, not only is my cash in a bank probably not going to gain in purchasing power, the corrupt banking systems or the governments may steal it.
Just call me CrazyForSilver, CFS
CFS…I am not diversified and have 75% of all assets in physical silver alone. I sleep very well and would not change anything May be awhile before it pays off but I can be very patient….regards…
Smart money is always early, ….and never late………………the boot.
early to recognize value…………….and never late getting out……………..ootb
James Turk the sanest gold guru –on king world news tonight
Interesting.
Revisionist Historian.
Going back to April, 2011…..as one of many examples.
About 8:00 in to Segment 4, Mr. Korelin reminds everyone of what he considers to be “diversification”.
http://www.kereport.com/2011/04/16/eye-perfect-storm-gold-silver/
When listening to some of these witch doctors, it is sometimes useful to go back and see what history really is, as opposed to what they now “claim” it to be.
Thank you for the link Shoobedoowa.
Best to you,
LPG
Jay is into inflation/deflation, so I’m posting the link on Stockcharts for Pring’s inflation /deflation indeces. Click on the third chart to see where the ratio has gone:
Big Al,
If you are NOT diversified – you DESERVE not to be able to sleep tonight..classic!!!!
BTW
Jay Taylor – CLASS act!!!!
Cory, thanks for that little uplifting talk of yours. As Adali Stevenson said after losing a second time and after visiting the Taj Mahal, wrote in the guest book: “I feel a little better now.”
All eyes on sugar. It may have bottomed or be very close to seeing a bottom. Check out SGG (alternatives CANE and SGAR) as examples of ETF plays. All are off 22% this year. But SGG is currently down 74% since its July 2011 high. Sugar itself is almost back at its 2010 low point having retraced nearly 100% of the rise into 2011.
So sugar is cheap by any standard. Much lower is not all that probable in my opinion and I think therefore this is a very low risk bet.
Sorry, missed linking the chart….here is the sugar futures chart from Finviz:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SB&p=m1
Sugar is highly dangerous at the moment because of normalization with Cuba.
Other things being equal, it might be OK, but with the nut job in the White House, you never know what trade deals the Marxist might make with Cuba.
Technically SGG does NOT look like it has bottomed yet.
Agree about SSG. The point is that the sugar chart itself is near a major bottom.
Looks like today is the day the Euro and Dollar reverse direction. Dollar should begin to fall, Euro begin to rise again.
Turns out I was exactly right on the dollar / euro reversing. It moved down almost immediately after I left my earlier post and has since dropped .73% confirming the two earlier highs in March and May as the peaks from which the trend line will be established. So now we have a channel to focus on and can likely expect a long slow decline in the buck. The move was significant and is in defiance of those who keep insisting that USD is heading to the moon anytime soon.
And I get a feather in my cap for being right!
Good discussion guys. Yes staying diversified is key. I think different people have different strategies. To me I think about having pockets of energy tied up in different assets (ie real estate, cash, bonds, different types of mutual funds or ETFS (growth, low turnover, emerging markets, small caps, blue chips), and then in addition, a few areas with increased focus. Some of this is tied up in 401k or IRAs, and parked in my retirement account.
For my trading account (higher risk/higher reward/actively managed) I trade in those focused sectors where I have some knowledge of the general industry, the competitive companies in the sector. the Energy and Commodities sectors. Oil, solar, uranium, wind, green energy, lithium & batteries, energy conservation companies, Precious Metals, PGMs, Base metals, Agricultural/Fertilizer/Food related, specialty metals, etc….
Notable to the gold price adjustment on Sunday night is that IT BARELY REGISTERS a blip on the volatility chart, but that the very notable change would be the decline of correlation below -.50. Compare with other price lows, and you’ll see this was a BS move on the part of speculators.
+1 FranSix
Thanks Fran. Good post and a good observation.
The new Obama database seems to me to be Big Brother at its dangerous worst.
Mark Levin talks about it at:
http://podbay.fm/show/209377688/e/1437444318?autostart=1
Stewart Thomson has it right…
Amateur investors spend most of their time trying to forecast the next short term price action. They believe their forecasts will create wealth, and eliminate risk. They are mistaken.
Professional investors simply respond to price action. Strength is sold. Weakness is bought.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_072115.html
Totally agree. Buy high sell low is what I have been doing but gold market has not given us opportunity to sell for several years. It is a lot easier a few year back. I remember I sold so much gold equity in 2010-2011. Hope good days come back.
Buy low sell high, geez.
confusing isn’t it……………. 🙂
Just because of cell phone typing. It is hard.
Must be that Pinyin keyboard. But I knew what you meant. 🙂
So the bank’s drubbing the gold price opens a window to accumulation. At this time, we should be seeing an end to the skew that the gold price has been under for a couple of years.
I think you are correct…………..
A difference between this smash and others is that silver is somehow decoupled from gold. Gold has make a new low and silver is way about its 14.1 low made in November. Gold/silver ratio actually went down during the drop. It means someone big is selling gold and buy silver. This should not be a natural market reaction since silver always out runs gold in either direction.
Above not about.
London is reporting Russia is buying gold at these low prices.
The dollar seems to have a lot of volume on the downside.
. .???
Relative to things, yes , but may not be to other fiat currencies.
So Buffett buys his first Greek island of 1 sq. km. just over a half hour by boat from Piraeus. I could not find anything of interest while I was there. Although I do note there is a Bahamian island in my price range for sale.
The vultures are circling!
Better get one ,while you can.
A whole Greek island for less than a New York apartment is not too bad.
like who wants to live in NY………..sound pollution will kill you, and will make you go mad……like Donald T…………..
Jerry – sooooooo true!
I could go for one of those greek island condos………..BLUEST WATER AROUND…..
It only means almost nothing is alive under the surf. What you want is dirty seawater, Frank. And lots of fish.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/buffett-johnny-depp-snap-cheap-greek-islands
Johnny Depp also bought a Greek island and Brad Pitt/Angelina Jolie are looking! There go prices up.
FYI:
http://sgtreport.com/2015/07/obama-is-creating-a-secret-race-database-that-he-has-massive-plans-for/
He does without congressional permission, funding or anything.
This is the Dictator running amok.
He defines a district having less than 50% non-white population as non-mixed or racially-biased and intends to DHHS, EPA and HUD to force integration on such areas.
If that does warrant impeachment, as vast over-reaching of presidential powers, I don’t know what does.
This will appear to allow a local authority to allow or disallow building permits based on skin color and nothing else.
http://nypost.com/2015/07/18/obama-has-been-collecting-personal-data-for-a-secret-race-database/
Worth reading!
Unbelievable!
Not unbelievable, considering the O…………it, is unbelievable that the sheeple are so asleep……….
He is working on the gun control on the old people……ssi people who have to have a little assistance. Better get all the guns and ammunition you are going to need and fast.
The problem with guns is that guns require permits and depending on the authorities, permits can be withdrawn/withheld at whim.
Ultimately you only get to keep a gun if you are prepared to keep one without a permit.
A permit is still not required in most states and I would bet that tens of millions are willing to keep their guns without a permit.
ditto
JUST NOTICED…….that the following have gold IMF…2814 tons…….. ECB….504 tons, WHY?………..chart at zerohedge.