Tuesday and the Doctor Is In.
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Doc shares his views on the domestic conventional markets, gold and gold stocks.
Very interesting thoughts today guys.
It’s going to be interesting to see how this bounce on metals plays out. If we don’t get a big move tonight or tomorrow, and it stays sideways for a week or two? It would be pretty surprising. I guess this is the object lesson of just how oversold can oversold get.
Al’s comment of uncharted waters couldn’t have more credence than right now.
I do hope the bottom in metals comes before or by mid September..
I see this as a trench warfare, attack, consolidate and attack again and consolidate again. They will push gold to as low as possible. Gold and silver have lost their volatile nature for a couple of years. Only volatility is on the downside, even that is small compared with historic data. We feel the slump is severe since it is almost uni-directional.
Greece reported to be about to start printing drachma.
I believe that is the logical thing to do.
Euro should rise slightly when that news is confirmed, and result in a small decline in USdollar, small increase consequently in gold price.
The longer the flat metals play out, the larger and more violent the final washout will be. Everyone is going to be shocked how low the bottom will be. The only trades in PMs are swing trades. Holding mining stocks right now is crazy. Luckily I’ve known that for a few years.
There are a number of technicals why I’m talking about a 1-2 week lack of a significant rebound; one of the important ones is how horrible some of the PM stocks look like and technically are going to fall yet for a few days. There’s no way that would happen if we get a bounce soon.
agreed. There’s not anywhere to hide but cash.
It’s amazing how the fed and banksters have basically forced the investment community into technical analysis and charting. In the wake of the financial meltdown and ZIRP, it leaves the investor no other choice.
All in all, the criminals have made most investors better.
If you don’t have the guts to buy at these levels, then fuggedabout backing up the truck at 817 – you’ll be shitting yourself then.
I beg to differ Irwin.
People need to get their orders ready BEFOREHAND. It helps…
Afterwards, there’s just a need of a click on a mouse 🙂 if/when gold gets there.
Said otherwise, 50% of the job will be done by being prepared… and it will just come down to execution. But I agree w. the fact that execution is key.
Also, whatever an investor’s exposure to the PM sector, one has to understand that if one has no edge, then portfolios are likely to be lower in value if/when gold hits $817. Being prepared mentally for that situation also helps.
What also help is not trying to time THE bottom, but to buy at levels that one deems very good value.
My 2cts.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
Great post LPG. I especially agree on the being prepared part. There is nothing worse in my mind than seeing the day arrive when gold takes off again and not having a target stock list on hand. You just cannot get that act together in a day or two and feel you did a good job on your homework before hand.
Doc,
You are right about XON. It seems Apple of biotech for long .
What you think about XON? it break out IBD fashion. Do you have more recommendation like XON.
Much appreciated!!!
Thanks
Been watching XON for a dip for some time to buy in but have not got it.
When market corrects it will too. But waiting to hear what Doc has to say.
I believe XON is very close to correcting. In fact, today I wrote in the money calls for August at a strike price of 50.
Thanks Doc.
I did not get what is “Wrote in the Money Calls”? Can you please elaborate?
Earning in August.
Guess I should lower my buy order on NUGT.
The best time to buy gold is when gold price drops but gold miner holding well or even gained after few days of drops.
The best time to short gold is when gold price is still moving up or stalled but gold miners drops.
People might have the guts to buy at these levels but not the brains
Wait a few years until gold is at 800, then buy
Cory, the buying opportunity of a lifetime was when gold was 250 and silver was 4
There will be no more buying opportunities of a lifetime, unless you are Methusalah
James, I have to disagree. Priced in real money, the miners have never been cheaper nor so oversold. We are heading into a new era for gold, not just a new bull market. I’m parroting Stewart Thomson with that opinion because I completely agree with him.
Quarterly XAU priced in gold:
http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15july/2015jul21xau1.png
And that is a great chart that should encourage us to be fearless when buying into miners as their time to shine approaches again.
What’s next ? TIMBER !!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX%3A%24XAU&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94671520978
That’s a very telling chart. We are getting very close to the bottom of these markets.
Yep ! Apple plunges despite EPS beat On iPhone sales miss, drop In China sales, weak guidance and strong dollar …
After the bell Microsoft and Yahoo showed weak results and Apple was an outright miss.
That’s a huge drop for Apple and if it holds tomorrow the stock is doomed to break down further—-it may then move up to challenge it’s previous highs but if apple goes, so goes the nasdaq.
I guess they did not sell enough $10,000 plated watches………….lol
Substitute $NDX:$GOLD and the ratio is at the top of a longish term trading range. Looks like it is due for a correction from 4.25 down to 3.8 or so.
… -7% and testing 200 DMA.
All these predictions in PM are great in the paper world but I never hear anything from the 3 musketeers about real world supply ? Its all very well to sell 700,000 oz of non-existent paper gold to smash the market in 30 seconds and then get your subsidiary partners to buy it back at lower prices; That only encourages real metal buying over here in Asia. Sooner rather than later the game will be over and so will supply.
The trouble is Ronnie the gold market went to $1900 on paper speculation only. Indian real physical demand had fallen off a cliff. At 1900, the real customers left gold market. SO it cuts both ways, doesn’t it? It was the paper game that took gold up to an extreme at $850 in 1980 too.
Essentially I think the longs in the futures market are basically naken longs. They don’t have the cash to buy the stuff and they gamble – on margin. That’s why they never take delivery on the COMEX. They can’t pay for it. That’s what the BS goldbug crowd never mention. So they have got flushed and flushed all the way down to under $1100 now and it will continue until they leave the casino. The big money boys know they can just stuff these speculative longs who don’t have the money to pay and should never have been in the market at all.
naked longs I meant.
BOB M…….said there no such thing as a NAKED SHORT……SO THERE CAN BE NOT naked longs…………………..or not…………….
Silverbug Dave I don’t know how you measure Indian gold falling off a cliff ? In that country there is so much distortion of gold purchases and smuggling that the official figures are as useless as the official PBOC data last week as regards their reserve. I think the paper market is likely in the near future to seperate from reality once again as we saw in 2007/2008. Paper bugs enjoy this while you can basking in the limelight of a completely fictitious economic recovery. Let’s see Yellen announce the rate rise while the economic picture crumbles at her feet. You are right this market is a casino and you are not the house. Unfortunately nor is the Fed. Oh by the way this $50 rout in Au was due to the Chinese purchasing too much gold over the last few months now selling it. I love the mainstream press alway telling you the truth.
hello Ronnie……….Have a question…..
.you stated…”Oh btw this $50 rout in Au was due to Chinese purchasing too much gold………..and now selling it”
Where did you get the info. concerning the CHINESE selling? thanks…………..CCF.
Nice to hear from you Charlie. You sound just like Doc. It’s fortunate that it isn’t Charlene, given Doc’s deep voice!
It has always been good to hear Doc’s balanced analysis.
As usual, the goldbug websites continue to huff and puff all the same old bull that they have shoved down people’s throats in the past several years as they sucked all the suckers in at the top and kept them invested all the way down.
It’s about time that people turned away from those shysters and did their own due diligence as well as looking for some balanced analysis.
Gold has lost 1100 US dollars (now 1093.40), 700 British Pounds (now 699.39), has dipped under 1000 Euros (but is now 1000.63) and under 1500 Aussie dollars (now 1475.87) and under 1050 Swiss francs (now 1048.63). Weak in every currency, even broken down in Japanese Yen. Does not look good.
The key as Doc says is if any bounce holds or if the metal takes out all these to the downside and goes into a lower trading range, perhaps a $900-1100 trading range from the recent $1100-1300 range.
Update, gold is now on sale for 999 Euros! Well, € 999.67.
The question from me: is the Doc refusing to eat tuna, now?