Commentary on the overall markets
Doc is back and we are recapping the markets. We cover everything from the conventional markets, gold, US dollar, and oil.
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BB; I won’t even look at GG until it falls to less then 10—-ask me then again what I think.
Thanks, Doc. Ouch! I thought it might be bottoming from the daily chart, but you have warned me away from SLW since it was 27 last fall, so I’d better listen to you on GG.
How about PVG, RGLD, and BTG? How low would they have to go before you’d look at them?
BB; I held a little of PVG and just sold it—-I believe we could see 3 eventually.
Sorry to hear you sold PVG. I just can’t sell mine during the summer while they are drilling up there, but I’ll try to hold off buying more. Thanks, Doc.
Doc – I know you and many other are following Yamana Gold. With the share price at $1.86 (US), it is all I can do to hold off buying the rest of them 🙂
Here’s their 2nd quarter results:
_____________________________________________________________
YAMANA GOLD ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER 2015 RESULTS
TORONTO, ONTARIO, July 30, 2015
Sandstorm Gold Announces Record Production in Second Quarter
VANCOUVER, July 30, 2015
BB; RGLD could short term pop when gold pops but the odds are good for a 40 handle.
BB; BTG is a harder one to tell—-I believe we’ll continue to head down toward $.50.
You’re killing me, Doc. I bought RGLD @42 several years ago. I didn’t sell when it was 100 so I won’t sell now, but I’ll sure buy more @40. How low do you think TGD can fall?
BB; I hate to sat it but we could see BTG near $.25. Don’t quote me on that one.
TGD has a chance to bottom at about $.20.
Thanks, Doc. I don’t own BTG so it won’t hurt me if it falls to .25. I do own TGD and would buy a lot more @.20.
Doc, just wait, GG will eventually go there. Many others quality names will be going to lows you can’t even conceive of today.
The diverging confluence of forces bearing down on the hard & soft commodity complex is as formidable and powerful as any in modern history. It will take years to correct the imbalances.
The wealth destruction and its social implications over the coming years will be things written about in you grand kids history books.
I agree entirely.
I remember years back when Money-Week recommended GG, the title of the article still stays with me ‘Talk about a golden future’. The dividend has been one of the few sources of extra income that I’ve enjoyed all these years. Dang!
Doc, when you say oil will rise what you are also saying is that the dollar is going to drop. Recall those charts of oil versus dollars that were being published as crude was falling and you know exactly what I mean. So if Saudi really does cut back on oil production is it almost implicit the dollar will fall. And that’s exactly what I think is in the cards but it will be timed to coincide with a bottom in commodities. Thus, an announcement from Saudi that in the fall they will reduce pumping so much excess is tantamount to us embarking on a weak dollar cycle and rising commodity prices.
Listener; even though the saudis may announce, it’ll take time to soak up all the stored oil on land and tankers. It should take time for prices to rise. I agree with the ultimate assessment of the dollar dropping but it will not be anytime soon.
I am looking for the dollar to drop as early as Monday morning Doc. It has almost reached its current peak. We may finally see gold bounce next week too since this consolidation looks to have almost completed.
You could be right. As mentioned below, the charts are really getting very tentative right now. I’m looking at some variables I normally don’t consider.
Well, it is a day later and the dollar did indeed drop. But that drop came on Friday instead of Monday which was my prediction and it looks like it was a little premature. The dollar never quite hit the upper boundary resistance line so it looks like traders jumped the gun on that technical marker. Since then it has recovered most of the decline so perhaps it will rise to the resistance level after all before beginning its more significant decline.
Maybe I just spoke too soon. Next time I will wait until we are almost at the sweet spot.
I’m certainly hoping and watching for such a scenario, but oil has some other headwinds so I’m unsure of timing. I read that Canada is bringing 500,000 more barrels online. Then there is Iran. And reduced demand.
$30 oil would not surprise me at all…………
Saudi arabia has announced that they will cut production after summer .
We still have a glut of oil. Someone mentioned several weeks ago…….the container ships were full of oil , waiting off shore ….Plus I think there are some deep water rigs that have been moth balled…..so, if the price rises they will go into production. OIL is a big game of chicken or chicken little……………………….the oily claw…..
Surely oil has soared on that news?
Rpyal Dutch Shell oil lays off 6,500 workers… more likely to follow.
Commodity sector carnage is coming. By the time its over I won’t be surprised if we are talking a million lost jobs or more around the world.
In the oilsands they are cutting employees by at least 50%.
How many people total are we talking about DT?
I read a couple people a year ago saying oil would go to $30.
Kinda looks like it will.
Actually, When all that talk of “peak oil” was happening Mikey Fulp said “peak oil” was BS and I do believe he was expecting then a drop in prices.
Cant remember the price at that time tho.
Yup, Micky the mercenary should debate that funny Puplava character.
funny…………..puplava character is right…………………
Peak oil………..8 yrs ago………
Peak Puplava was five years ago. 😉
You guys don’t like Puplava?
He’s generally pretty good and I believe he is honest. That alone makes him better than most of his mainstream colleagues.
I agree. He does a nice market roundup each weekend. I almost always enjoy listening in even if I don’t always agree with his conclusions.
Puplava’s great. Loved it when all his stuff was free!
I still believe in peak oil. I don’t think fracking does much to change it. Another one of those things where it’s just a matter of timing, but I think we’re more or less there. Cheap credit has clouded the picture, short-term, I think.
The funny thing about Puplava is that he always blamed high oil prices on peak oil even though gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, etc, were up just as much or more due to weak currencies especially the dollar. Now we have oil at 30 year lows in real terms (vs gold) and Puplava’s interest in oil has peaked. It should be piqued.
I work in Oil industry but I never bought the peak oil theory but i believe the oil will be more and more expensive as times go along. The reason is that currency can be printed at will but oil is harder and harder to extract. One day if we spend one barrel of oil of energy to get one barrel of oil, the game is over.
Lawrence, I agree with you.
Lawrence, Charles Hall is a fisheries ecologist who has been one of the developers of the EROEI concept (energy return on energy invested). I believe he figures that our modern civilization requires an EROEI of 11 or 12 to keep working. I believe new oil discoveries are a fair bit below that.
Jeremy Grantham has some interesting commentary on oil and other things in his new quarterly letter:
https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=14
Mickey, is no resource guru, his head may look like a crystal ball but that is about it for him.
You guys make me laugh, tuff to make money! Doc, Gary and Rick were all suggesting lower gold when $1170 support broke, Dust is up over 100% the last 4 weeks and Jdst up 100% and short Oil has been a great trade, you guys talk about it yet you make no $$$$$
Learn to trade the markets as Armstrong has suggested or get killed he has been spot on these past 4 years calling gold’s trend and US equity markets…..lol
There Marty goes again with that moronic comparison: “A $1,000 investment in gold in 1980 vs. a $1,000 investment in the Dow Jones …”
He must know that his followers aren’t too bright. He chose a 50 year secular high for gold and a 50 year secular low for the Dow as his starting point. Nope, no axe to grind there! No way, not at all! LMFAO! Gee, why didn’t he start his comparison at the 1999 secular top for the Dow and bottom for gold? Could it be because the Dow is STILL down 65% versus gold even AFTER rallying a whopping 180% since since 2011? Nah, Marty’s too honest for that.
Yes, the Dow is up over 180% versus gold in less than four years. Yes, everyone should sell gold and buy the Dow right now! 🙂
ojj…don’t let your love for Armstrong over rule your common sense…..
You guys are as thick as bricks, I don’t trade off Armstrong I trade what the charts suggest long and short while you guys only talk about lower gold or oil or lower crashing US equities, lol you don’t even believe your own opinion those that have called for lower gold, oil making no money shorting and yet you think your chart experts, what an insult to the industry!
Marty’s computer data not his opinion has called the trend correctly for the past 4 years while you guys continue to call bottom after bottom after bottom, pathetic!
Imagine how much money you would have made trading the swings up and down instead of always bottom calling, I know I have, why because I have the balls to short any sector that suggests to do so while you guys only trade the long side and pisssss on anyone who trades against your opinion regardless of you being dead wrong!
Who’s pissing on who? I enjoy your trading commentary. The attitude that comes with it, not so much.
Armstrong’s got the same problem, by the way.
jj is back….so its not true you were banned for life. Good to hear fro you, man.
I’m not back Birdman I have no interest in the clowns here as I thought I’d check in after the Fed meeting to see if anyone has made money shorting oil, gold, mining stocks.
An obvious lie. If you had no interest you would be back at all. I hear Dr. Tom Woods offers a good course in logic, fwiw.
There was a time Matty when I actually thought you had some chart skills, a true chartists makes money off any momentum swing long or short. I have no time for those that like to promote themselves as experts calling for lower oil, equities, gold and yet hold no short positions they make their followers no money!
I only posted because I couldn’t believe what a joke it was hearing Doc again suggest lower gold, oil etc and yet he has not made a cent shorting anything!
This isn’t a place to make money its old men sitting around like a bunch of old ladies complaining about every down turn as manipulation, make money off it and stop complaining!
GONE!!!!
I share only a little of what I do here. Do you think FELP is a sell today?
Btw, when have you heard me complain about manipulation or anything about the market action? I’d like to know.
He was never banned for life Birdman, he left voluntarily in an angry fit. I actually like some of the points JJ makes, and agree if people think markets are going down they should short them. I’ve used JDST and JNUG to play both directions, and am a little shocked when some analysts are convinced things are going down that they don’t short them and make money. However, I think that same point could be made without being so hostile and combative all the time with the name calling and insulting. It takes away from the otherwise smart analysis and come across as snarky. How about just sharing good advice in friendly way so everyone learns together?
ditto……………
LET’s chalk it up ……to maybe O RING IN AL JJ………..had a hard day…….. 🙂
No, he acts like that every time he posts FFM and has for a long time. It is one thing to have a difference of opinion, or come from a different point of view and share ideas with folks. However, it is an entirely different approach to come on insulting the speakers, insulting guest contributors on the weekend show a phonies or clueless pumpers, and call everyone clowns or say Doc is joke. If someone posts an article or video from someone he doesn’t like he comes in and craps all over that poster for daring to put up thoughts from an economist, mining CEO, or newsletter writer.
That doesn’t stop him from pumping the Jew-hating Mike Stathis at Ava Research who is just full of hate and insults towards almost anyone in the precious metals space. He pounds his chest about how right he was about PMs being in a bear market and assumes everyone else got it wrong (missing the point that many investors on this site and even the gurus they despise sold out right before or right after the top). Many people have been in agreement that PMs topped in 2011, and noted it when it was happening and since it happened, but that just falls on deaf ears. There are also a number of speakers, guest hosts, and bloggers that successfully played the counter-trend bounces on the way down in the overall bear the last 4 years and shorted PMs the rest of the time, but they don’t get any credit, because he has made himself the final judge of who is intelligent and who is a clown.
I actually think Original JJ is one of the better technical guys that has been on the this site, but he gets so pompous about his indicators (like the MACD) and will post something to another blogger and say “you’re welcome,” like he has some special dibs on using the MACD. We all use the same technical indicators, but he likes to jab at people or attack their posts or sources.
It is sad because Original JJ was on this site for years as bull, then lost money, then got jaded, then got spiteful towards all the precious metals gurus (but negates their business and market experience, all the short-term calls they got right, and throws the baby out with the bathwater.
So now he decided to come on only to gloat about how smart he is or how dumb everyone on this site (clowns) are. He initiates a discussion from the position that everyone bought at the top in 2011 and are upset that they lost everything, when that hardly applies to anyone on this site. He also thinks everyone on here is a conspiracy theorist or a hard-core GATA manipulation theorist and that everyone is blaming a loss on market manipulation.
Most people on this blog are fairly level-headed, and understand most markets have some degree of manipulation from the larger hedge funds, but still take personal responsibility for the choices they make, and know the only losses they have are due to trades they decided to execute. They are also respectful or encouraging towards one another, not a wet blanket ready to scoff and insult right out of the gate.
Coming on just to call everyone clowns like a Mike Stathis worshiper isn’t helpful, doesn’t spread knowledge, doesn’t win friends and influence people, and isn’t even comic relief….it’s just troll behavior.
On second thought……..I agree with you………the Claw ootb, jthlong, CCF, as you can see there are a lot that agree.
Funny you count for 4 different people with all those names 🙂
OJJ,
You are right about trading the markets, there is always something to trade. You just come across so arrogant with everything you say. Just be real, bud. You don’t have to make everyone wrong, even when they are …
Who thinks this chart of Marty’s has any value at all?
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GC-1982-Dollars.jpg
What measure of inflation does he use to correct it? How does he get a $1200 1980 peak? and I’d rather see it in 2015 dollars than 1982 dollars. So no, it’s not the best version of that chart that I’ve seen.
Doc:
No comments on the metals? We are now in your time frame that you had mentioned a couple of weeks ago as a bottoming area.
Tom, you’re right—It’s interesting that you mentioned that since I thought the same thing after I talked to Cory. I’ve been absent a couple of days. I’ll address it tomorrow since there are now a couple of scenarios I’m adopting. The PMs and stocks are doing what I expected and now after looking at the charts, I believe there are 2 possible scenarios. I’ll have Cory focus on that tomorrow instead of writing in length. But thank you for bringing it up.
You tease Doc 🙂
Bob; the charts are getting murky right now. We will move lower yet in gold before we have a bounce. We’re getting close. What bothers me is the monthly BB has turned down. We could have either of 2 scenarios. August could be an awful month where we finally washout for the whole month—that would mean an extended cycle. Otherwise, in the next 2 weeks we could have a bounce and then work our way lower again to the end of the year and into early 2016—I guess we’re at a “pick your poison” time.
Excellent thoughts, Doc! I appreciate you sharing them. Those are the two options I see too. I find a washout August unlikely for multiple reasons, but one is that in the last 5 years every year gold has ended the month higher than it started at an average of 5.7% higher. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24GOLD
This isn’t to say that it will turn back up immediately when August starts but I’m not sure that it will stay down too long. A bear market rally is what I expect. I agree with your end of the year/early 2016 timeframe, but who knows…
I am thinking the same thing on those 2 scenarios Doc. Really, I’d love to just get the final plunge over with in August and finish the 4 year bear, but I’m prepared to play the brief bounce and then short things going into the later part of the year if necessary if it is the second scenario.
Right! It is almost exactly a four year bear now. Gold hit its first intraday peak in excess of 1900 dollars on August 23rd, 2011 so that’s maybe the anniversary of the beginning of the bear. We can all celebrate….kind of!
I’ll bake a cake with for the 4 year bear party, and put 4 candles on it for each year…
Nice one Shad. 🙂
I suspect you’d rather not be putting a 5th candle next year. 🙂
Best as always,
LPG
*Gold is back down to the $1080 level again. This makes me concerned it may break through this time as triple bottoms or quadruple bottoms rarely hold.
Jul 31, 2015 05:36 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1079.70/1080.70
We may still get scenario #1 (August washout) if this level breaks down on Friday.
As mentioned previously there is a small support level at the $1067 Fib – $1065 prior trough, and then at $1044.70, and then the fall to $1000 should those yield. $993.20 is next support, and then many other investors have mentioned a slurry of targets down in the high 900’s.
Well now it bounced back up to $1090 in the pre-markets. Gold is still stuck in this range whip-sawing back and forth from $1080-$1094. It has tested $1079 three different times now in the last 2 weeks, but it didn’t break through today (yet). Maybe this level will hold, but it is teetering on the brink.
Matthew- you read srsrocco report site??
PEAK GOLD vs. PEAK SILVER: Must See Chart
Filed in Energy, Mining, Precious Metals by SRSrocco on July 30, 2015 • 2 Comments
Thanks Agatha, I will take a look.
Hey Core! You Kanukians aren’t gonna cut my dividends on ECA are yas?!?
Shadmeister, I am hoping for a $1 gap up and a $1 run on RUSL tomorrow for maybe a 10% profit. Fingers crossed.
hey Jason – I played the JNUG game today and it came out basically a wash at a 2% gain. Went in at $7.95 and got out at $8.11 hoping for a bigger bounce at the close.
I almost went in on RUSL a few days back but held off and I’m kicking myself now. Good luck man!
Antofagasta has made some interesting acquisitions lately and has been doing better than it’s peers in the mixed commodity space. They also acquired Duluth Metals and sold their water unit in the recent past. Interesting company.
____________________________________________________________________
Barrick Agrees To Sell 50% Of Zaldívar Copper Mine To Antofagasta
Thursday July 30, 2015
Here is a nice 200 day composite chart of some of the major Base Metals and Commodity players. Featured companies:
– Teck Resources, Vale, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Antofagasta, Glencore Xstrata, and First Quantum.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TCK,VALE,BHP,RIO,FCX,ANTO.L,GLCNF,FM.TO#
Is It Time To Buy Metals?
Avi Gilburt
July 29, 2015
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When the market made it clear three years ago that much lower levels were going to be seen, as the bottoming set up we were tracking was invalidated in June of 2012, I put out the lower targets we have had on our metals charts for the last three years. And, during those last few years, many of you have questioned me about us being able to strike those targets, as they seemed too unbelievable to most. In fact, I have been warned by many market participants, as well as other analysts, that if I wait for my targets, I will likely miss the next bull market. Well, I don’t think we have missed much, and, in fact, have done quite well with our short side trades.
With the markets now dropping towards our long term buying zones, the most common question I am asked is “do we buy now?” And, much of the answer depends on your risk tolerance perspective. But, for those that are not trying to perfectly time the market, the answer is “yes,” if you already do not have initial positions in this market. But, if you do, please do keep in mind that the “potential” still exists that silver can see the as low as the $10 region (ideal target has been 12.75), whereas GLD can still drop as low as the 75 region (ideal target has been 98) in an overemotional capitulation event, which I have warned about for quite some time.
With the break down this past week, the GLD has now moved into the buy zone, and is approaching my “ideal” target at 98. However, silver is still hovering a little over that buy zone, and many of the miners we have been watching on our list have moved much closer to their buying zones. So, while gold has moved into the target zone, silver still has not, and I would prefer to see them both in the zone together to consider we have a strong long term buying signal. That has not yet happened.
For those that are trying to time this market, I would have to say that it seems we still need a “rally” in a 4th wave to set up our final run to lower lows. So, just like shorting the markets from the highs, one has to determine how much risk they want to take down here, and, more importantly, how much “pain” they would feel comfortable in taking if they begin to buy their long term positions now. But, should you begin to buy now, we still have at least one more opportunity to hedge our positions as we did back in May and June of this year.
How I Am Viewing The “Buying” Opportunities
I am going on record that I still do not believe the final lows have been struck YET. I know that some analysts in the market are again considering this last drop as the “final capitulation” which precedes the major market turn, but I am still not yet in that camp. While we have begun to see the masses turning strongly against the metals right now, some even considering them akin to “pet rocks,” as well as seeing some of the lowest sentiment readings for metal bulls on record, our downside pattern does not yet look completed.
If I were to be an absolute purist, I would say that we need another rally in a wave iv of 3, followed by a lower low in a wave v of 3, which would be followed by a second rally in a wave 4, which would then be followed by another lower low in a wave 5.
What this ultimately means is that after a wave 4 rally, which should last between 2-4 weeks, as I expect it to be much larger than wave 2 based upon the theory of alternation, I am going to be “calling” the lows are in at the next lower lows following that wave 4. But, I want to be clear. Should we see a lower low within the next week or two, I would only view that lower low as being the completion of wave 3, with us still needing a wave 4 and 5 before the lows are in. However, at whatever the next lower lows are, even if they are only wave v of 3 within the next week or so, I will personally be buying more metals and miners on those lower lows, and leaving capital available for more buying at the next lower lows I expect. My intention has always been to layer into my long term positions.
This means that my answer to the question of “is it time to buy?” is to be answered in the affirmative on whatever next lower lows we see. Should that lower low be seen within the next week or so, it is a good long term buying opportunity, but we still have a high probability of seeing one more lower low below that, even after a rally is seen. Yet, remember, just as we did our initial buying for the first time in 4 years at the November lows in 2014, and we successfully hedged those longs in May, we can always do the same on the next larger wave 4 rally.
But, the lower low I am still expecting in a month or two, would be a VERY STRONG buying opportunity, and those levels may not be seen again for many decades to come.
Wave Count
Silver is still not providing us with a standard impulsive pattern to the downside, and still strikes me as forming an ending diagonal to complete this final run to lower lows. Furthermore, we may yet see a little lower to complete this wave (3). What this likely means, if I am correct, is that the upside in silver’s 4thwave may be relatively limited as compared to that for gold and GDX. But, it also means that when silver does complete its full 5 waves lower, the move off that 5th wave bottom will likely be one of the more powerful moves we will see in silver.
As far as GDX and GLD, those of you in our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net know that, by the end of this past week, I have gotten out of the significant portions of my puts/hedges which were entered in May and June. Yet, I am struggling with whether the low we saw on Friday was the end of the 3rd wave in this 5th wave, or if it was only wave iii of 3. Should we see lower lows in the next week, that would suggest to me that the low on Friday was only wave iii of 3, and the next immediate lower lows are wave v of iii. However, should the market begin a multi-week corrective rally/consolidation, it would confirm that the bottom struck last week was the completion of wave 3.
I want to clearly note that I have reached a point at which my fears may drive my wave count, and I am concerned that this may affect my objectivity. But, when I look at the long term picture, it is not reasonable for me to be suggesting to those who have been waiting for me to issue the “buy” signal to continue to wait, at least for their initial entries into this market. But, if I were a complete purist, I would almost have to expect lower lows within the next week or so, which would then complete wave v of 3. And, as you can see from my GLD chart, this is how I must present the count, as it really makes the most sense, despite my fears. However, I cannot maintain the same perspective in the GDX at this time. And, oddly enough, silver also looks like it needs another lower low to complete wave (3).
So, for now, I am going to be looking for a lower low within the next week or so, which would complete wave v of 3, which will then kick off a multi-week corrective rally for wave 4.
EWT Miners Portfolio
As an update on the Elliottwavetrader.net miners portfolio, Larry, Zac, Garrett and I continue to prepare for the final bottom in the miners. We are meeting this coming week to review all the stocks we have initially picked for that portfolio to re-assess if our initial picks will remain in the final cut.
For those that may not know, we are creating our own miners portfolio within our StockWaves service at Elliottwavetrader.net, with the goal of outperforming the GDX. We are analyzing all the stocks within the GDX, and taking out the ones that we feel will underperform, and replacing them with stocks we expect to outperform, once the bottom has been struck. Furthermore, our “committee” will be regularly reviewing all the stocks within the portfolio every two weeks to assure that we maintain an outperforming portfolio.
And, since my expectation is for bottoming to occur no earlier than September, we should have our list and allocation percentages completed by our roll out date of September 1. And, we thank you, our membership, for constantly pushing us for this over the last year. Ultimately, we expect this will place us the enviable position of having recommended exiting the market at the exact top in 2011, and attempting to time the publication of our managed miners’ portfolio right at the expected bottom.
See Avi’s charts illustrating the wave counts on the metals at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-GDX-GLD-YI-20150726776.html
********
Thanks for posting the Avi article Agatha.
+1 w. Shad.
Thanks Agatha.
On July 20, 2015, BullionDirect, Inc. filed a bankruptcy petition, Chapter 11 No. 15-10940 in the U. S. Bankruptcy Court, Western District of Texas, Austin Division Additional notices will appear at this site regarding hearings, deadlines, filing proofs of claim and other such matters.
There might be some more going BR………….like miners,….overhead without sales will eat you alive………………………………………………………..the CLAW
Original jj
Are you again past posting?
How bout a challenge?
I remember when Barrick started buying old abandoned gold workings in Nevada and started drilling deeper to see if the resources would prove profitable and the rest is history. That is what turned me on to Defiance Silver, Bob M wrote them up a while ago and I was intrigued, success is a formula. Remember always DYODD. DT
off topic:
of the people, for the people, by the scum
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/kerry-we-cant-reveal-contents-secret-side-deals-american-people_1000761.html
We just might have a very nice head and shoulders bottom forming in gold. We’ll know very soon; probably tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p42626306032
Between November 2013 and May this year, the gold chart formed a Head and Shoulders pattern that somebody here claimed was “just a shape”…..but in fact, it WAS a large H&S formation despite the fact it materialized at the bottom of the chart trend rather than at a peak as is normally expected.
For some reason there is this block people put up against the idea that a H&S can form during a basing process. They seem convinced they can only exist into rising, oversold and over-bullish market that is terminating.
But this is not the first time I have seen this so there is something more too it although what the explanation might be I am not quite sure. Maybe it is just the same forces of bullish / bearish sentiment in a trading range tug of war that results in the pattern.
Anyway, I think that pattern has now been proven with the recent price plunge below 1100 and that is pretty good evidence the assessment was correct. Take a look at any gold chart and that H&S is clear as day. Birdman called that one and he was right. The size of that pattern though suggests a lot of downside for gold is yet in store.
Once we get a relief bounce out of the way of course. Monday possibly?
Morris Hubbartt and Stewart Thomson shared my opinion. The volume pattern and even its shape did not support that it was a head and shoulders top. Such “tops” that occur after a decline are unusual and don’t carry the same weight as the textbook variety that occurs where its suppose to -at a top.
If gold is able to take back the neckline area soon, it will have been “just a shape” after all. If it’s real, the NL will hold and we’ll be on our way to the H&S target which is much lower than the low we’ve seen so far.
I wonder if you realize how wrong you were just yesterday…
On July 29, 2015 at 9:18 pm,
Matthew says:
Silver continues to look good relative to gold.
SLV:GLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p20700702161&a=415279966
Reply to this comment
On July 30, 2015 at 1:15 am,
A Listener says:
Silver is down another 15 cents this morning. So much for looking good.
————–
Yes indeed, silver is UP vs gold just like I said. It has ONLY been up vs gold since I made that comment.
Btw, you can stop the charade that you are not Birdman, it’s getting creepy. 🙂
Silver WAS down 15 cents at the time of writing. That was a fact.
Fact: Bird Listener can’t read a chart. Note that I said “Silver continues to look good relative to gold.” Also note that my chart is of SLV priced in GLD -NOT dollars.
At the time of your comment and since, silver was up when priced in gold. Hence, “Silver continues to look good relative to gold” was/is correct.
My comment had nothing to do with yours.
Of course it did. That’s why you said “so much for looking good.” That was a reference to my comment: “Silver continues to look good relative to gold.”
You just want my attention. But that’s OK. Everyone does.
I am not sure about gold but silver looks like it has bottomed. The reason I know because silver refuses to out run gold. It look like physical delivery has finally cause trouble for the shorts. People start buying physical in the futures market since it is too cheap. You can read Craig H ‘s articles about July physical delivery anomaly. When you compare it with silver price movement, it makes a lot of sense. shorts can no longer hide behind the naked short positions. When industry feel it is cheap and prefer to source silver in the future, it is hard to suppress the price. This is a case I have been waiting for since 2004. Without being able to suppress silver, gold price suppression will force people to hide in silver and cause a COMEX default. So gold downside is limited. I have been talking about this in the last few days.
I know most people get more bearish when market declines and get more bullish when market rises. These include most of the experts. Now at least one expert I heard is trying to justify $350 gold ). He is confused between possibility and probability. Apparently investment is a fake science so people believe whatever junk theory there is. A lot of them makes no scientific sense and more aligned with fortune telling. I would rather go to a Feng Shui expert.
This fear will get you out of market when you need to buy and in the market when you supposed to avoid.
Silver has not hit bottom yet. It is now a high probability that it will also retrace most of its climb and revert back to its inflation adjusted beginning point. Ten dollar silver is NOT out of the question.
I will appreciate if you give me a fundamental analysis. Thanks.
Everything is possible but most possible things will not happen. For example, If we discover a huge gold deposit with million tons of gold grains tomorrow just 10 meters under ground, gold will drop to $10. But the chance is nil.
Unlike gold itself, GLD is showing a potential double bottom rather than a head and shoulders bottom. Still good…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p66229112220
Hey Doct,
XON is keep moving up. what you think about XON? good time to add?
Earning is in few day.
Thank you
Matthew, LPG….and others– yes, Thomson & Hubbartt–the later on 321gold now..
smarter people than I will keep us informed re gdxj..appears the stocks have gone up in this decline…as Thomson says…. fundamentals make charts..
Thomson is right about that. Here’s Hubbartt:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt073115.html
Hubbartt echoes and illustrates what I was saying about the transports yesterday:
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015july30dowchina/2015july30dowchina.html
Thanks for posting. I thought the embedded video on GDXJ priced in GDX from Morris Hubbart was interesting:
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015july30gdxjgdx/2015july30gdxjgdx.html
GDXJ has lost 55% in a year……GDX yearly performance is a loss of 49%. I think for my money I will stick with the bears who forecast these kinds of losses were coming rather than the bulls who saw a bottom thrice per month and slapped on a happy face after each wimpy little bounce!
And GDXJ is up 23.86% vs GDX since the middle of March. Is this meaningless to you or do you think the implication is significant?
GDXJ has lost 55% in a year……GDX yearly performance is a loss of 49%.. What more needs to be said. Those are big numbers. Anyone who bought and held is really hurting right now regardless of what one loser is doing versus another loser.
You are kidding with me of course. I appreciate your humour.
Let me try to rephrase what you are saying with an analogy: …. There was a serious vehicle accident. One of the passengers was paralyzed for life and the second was put on life support with poor chances of survival.
But one is doing better relative to the other!!! 🙂
Is that about correct?
Ok, so it is all lost on you. You do not understand the implications.
Oh, I think I do. And so does everyone else who reads these threads.
That’s not what the evidence says. As long as you let your emotions rule your decision-making, you will continue to be most bearish when the odds are most against you.
Of course, having chickens to blow could mitigate your fears somewhat. 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNBC4mC5y4&list=PLDt749rNtV4OI7GUbDjnTNjYOnrM1nNNY
Hi Doc, GG just slashed it’s dividend 60%. At what price would you buy GG? Thanks.