Today we focus on gold
Since yesterday we did not get to gold, today we focus almost exclusively on the metal and its markets. Doc has a lot of the same views that we heard at the Sprott conference.
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Respectively, Doc really isn’t committing. “We could continue to go down or we could bounce. Guess I come down on the side of a bounce, based on time elements and sentiment reading. Everyone is saying lower. That’s when the crowd may be wrong on an intermediate basis. JMO.
Just another thought. Today might be one of those days when gold closes at 1:30 near the days center and then runs in the after market, along with a catch-up by metal stocks.
PROLONGED. word of the day………………………………………THE CLAW
Good on you Al…something big going down in the Fall.
YES ANOTHER ROUND OF …….QE……….
Gold is not going anywhere quickly……….prolonged into the fall and beyond.
Avi is out with 50 yr. forecast…..on silver………Better get a 1000 yr planner out.
Done Frank. And here is the answer……
15 dollar an ounce silver compounded at the average 3.22% annual inflation rate for the coming 1,000 years is going to become a staggering $870,855,287,369,282 by the time you cash in the chips.
That’s 870 trillion in case you don’t have your glasses on. Wow!
What an investment!!!! Course you have to live that long to enjoy it. Or have hefty hyperinflation to make it all so. The other thing is that it proves what Bob Moriarty just wrote about Zimbabwe dollars which inflated into the trillions in just a few short years.
100 Trillion Dollar Zimbabwe Currency Note….. Man…are those guys rich, or what?
https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=AwrB8pUJ2rtVoUUAg0wunIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTIyNjZhOXZjBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDaW1nBG9pZANjMjI0MTA0N2VkMzQ3OWQ4YjQzNmQ2ZjU5N2Q3ODkxMQRncG9zAzEEaXQDYmluZw–?.origin=&back=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fyhs%2Fsearch%3Fp%3DLargest%2BZimbabwe%2BNote%26fr%3Dyhs-mozilla-002%26hsimp%3Dyhs-002%26hspart%3Dmozilla%26tab%3Dorganic%26ri%3D1&w=925&h=481&imgurl=cache.wists.com%2Fthumbnails%2F3%2F05%2F305777230e62eabfe763877247d1de27-orig&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oobject.com%2F12-examples-of-money%2Flargest-denomination-note-ever-zimbabwe-100-trillion-dollars%2F8217%2F&size=95.6KB&name=link&p=Largest+Zimbabwe+Note&oid=c2241047ed3479d8b436d6f597d78911&fr2=&fr=yhs-mozilla-002&tt=link&b=0&ni=21&no=1&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=13e9nme94&sigb=1437vh1pm&sigi=125q9g43c&sigt=104vuutdh&sign=104vuutdh&.crumb=vQt.aH82nJm&fr=yhs-mozilla-002&hsimp=yhs-002&hspart=mozilla
That is about the amount of inflation the fed reports……….just think if you are around you can get that turtle soup and a salad at the……..new fast food joint…”Turtle Delight”………slow service great dine……….
🙂
Only 870 trillion for a bowl of hot turtle soup. Salad is extra of course. And hold the bread, waiter. My budget is going to be busted. I wonder if I can afford to put salt and pepper on that snapper.
Funny thread.
An interesting comparison chart re pick-up times in PMs.
://sgtreport.com/2015/07/peak-gold-vs-peak-silver-must-see-chart/#more-398275
Correction…
http://sgtreport.com/
GREAT CHART ………..on comparing the two ……..thanks …………
I’m kind of in the same camp as Doc on the final bottom just bouncing around for months. But I think we need a really good fakeout rally to get everyone’s hopes up first. Then when it too fails we get the utter demorlization that leads to a final low and many months of bouncing around doing nothing that drives everyone out of the sector.
I’m looking for that fakeout rally out of this ICL.
That makes sense to me that there would need a counter-trend relief rally to get bullishness going before the final leg down. Once people start getting bullish on the rising tide (likely in the miners/small producers first), then the last washout can occur cleansing sentiment, and then the long consolidation and gradual climb out starting a new bull market.
Avi Gilburt has been mentioning that in the Elliot wave count we just finished or will be finishing next week the end of the downward Wave 3. He also believes a counter-trend leg up in a Wave 4 could have some legs and improve sentiment, and then the Wave 5 would take Gold all the way down to it’s major bottom. It sounds like a similar thought process.
Bouncing up for an August Wave 4, and then declining down in the last major Wave 5 down would also allow the larger monthly falling wedge pattern to continue to play out. Gold would remain in that pattern and eventually dip down lower to put in its major lows before eventually breaking out to the upside. As Doc mentioned, that may take until 2016 if the pattern goes all the way out to the apex of that wedge, but it also could break out or decide to break down before that.
Lastly, a bounce up, proceeded by the final plunge down would also match up with the expected weakening US dollar, followed by a surging US dollar. Gold would rise on the weakening dollar, and then put in its major low on the Wave 5 down when the dollar strengthened. When this happens it should also mark the low in the CRB index and for the commodities sector.
This seems like the most likely path to me.
Having said that, there is no doubt that Gold has continued to flirt with $1080 support repeatedly and even dipped down below it into the high $1070’s a few times, it always could just fall out of bed down to the $1000-$1045 zone eveyone’s been watching for, and this would negate the falling wedge pattern and lead to a more severe breakout to the downside. Personally, it would be great to get the low over with, but that scenario would likely be more dramatic.
Seriously, taking intra-day shorts has been very profitable as of late. Not investment advice, but shorting silver after initial strength at open of market, has been a winning trade for me for the last 2 months.
Not a single losing trade in the last 20 to 30 trades.
Hey Doc,
XON is keep moving up. what you think about XON? good time to add?
Earning is in few day.
Thank you
TRDE; I would be careful here. We’re due for a pullback. Personally, I’m not chasing the stock here and am not adding. I’ll wait for a pullback (if it ever comes). This could be a buy on the rumor, sell on the fact for the earnings.
Thank you Doc.
I am so miffed about XON – up over 50% since I looked at it around 40 bucks.
I was greedy and wanted it for 35… drat!
Rather than talking daily about gold we all should have just jumped into biotechs and ridden the bull.
The biotech stocks just seem to keep sucking in money.
Jim Grant very bullish on gold as THE investment in monetary disorder.
Thank you Andrew. Jim Grant is one of the best.
Absolutely agree. Here is a video of him from 2012 where he stated that gold was the refuge for idiots.
James Grant: Gold is the Refuge of Idiots
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=jim+grant+gold+2012&ei=UTF-8&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-002
I don’t think you watched your video.
Below the video, it says: “Yes, he did say it, but just to explain how people felt about it in 1996…”
Did he or did he not say that gold was the refuge for idiots? 🙂
—————————
But here is another interview snippet to show Jim’s instincts are maybe not as good as you would like to imply:
In December 2011 (four months after gold peaked) Jim said:
Question: So Jim, with inflation ahead, are you buying gold at $1,480 an ounce?
Answer: I am not buying it now. I have bought it in the past. Gold is a very difficult investment because its value is indeterminate. It is the reciprocal of the world’s confidence in the likes of Ben Bernanke. I think the price will go higher.
Q: When did you first buy gold?
A: Well, my first misadventure with gold was standing in a queue in front of the Nicholas Deak currency and coin shop, which was on lower Broadway. And it might have been January of 1980 at the very peak but if not then, it was late 1979. I almost top ticked it. That was before I learned never to stand in line to buy an asset. You always want to go where nobody else is in line.
————
Yup, Jim said gold would go higher. And 48 months later I am sure he is very happy he was not buying because gold prices (in his words) are indeterminate. He also said he bought at the top in 1980. Good timing there. We all learn the hard way I guess.
The best part is that Ron Paul once wanted Jim to be the next Fed Chair. Yeah….right.
IF JIM WAS THE NEXT FED CHAIR………..GOLD WOULD BE AT $2500
Anyone that has been around long enough can put all the details together, see who the players are, see who is being played…….more valuable going forward…………JMHO.
As our departed friend……..HH says……..trust only one…..and it sure is not man…..
Correction…if Jim was the Fed chair the world would go down in a hellish deflationary super-nova and world war three would be about to break out as one outcome, The guy actually wants a gold standard for gosh sakes.
And people take him seriously.
You are too much, Birdy.
Nobody serious listens to Jim Grant no matter how professor-like he sounds. Isn’t he one of those Bavarian economists or something like that? By the way…who is Birdy?
Thanks in advance.
Right, no one listens to Grant and you’re not Birdman. At least you go big. 😉
Rev:
Thank you for posting JG. He’s a peach and always speaks the truth as he views it. Secondly, he really isn’t selling anything except his service, which he has a valid right to do. Loved two terms: ” institutional pride” and “reciprocal asset” and his validation of both ideas. He brings a level of respect to the whole subject. JMO
Thanks Silverdollar – I find myself endlessly having to sift through certain people on this site who presume to know more than those who are clearly insightful, shrewd and constant. Best, A
COT commercial report for this past week—-neutral for silver and a net long position of about 3000 contracts for gold.
For the stocks I own (all juniors), the weekly chart patterns are showing a possible inflection point: If they drop significiantly next week, I would expect it is another leg down. If they continue up or flat/up-bias, they could gain another 25%.
Interestingly, the GDXJ chart just looks real sleepy.
We shall see in the next 5-10 business days
I think I will take a position in some gold/silver miners on Monday and Tuesday.
I am also looking at some oil resource companies. I think we might get a new 52 week low this coming week but I am not convinced that we will go straight down to 35 bucks. (I also think, if we do go to 35 bucks this summer, that we will not be there for too long.). I think, a bit like Gary’s call for a bounce in the precious metals, that we could get a new low and then a sizeable bounce in oil.
Does anyone else have any thoughts on oil?
off topic:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/least-transparent-ever-irs-used-wholly-separate-instant-messaging-system-to-hide-communications/
Why hide your computer like Hillary, and destroy your hard drive when subpoenaed?