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Watch out for the continued fall in the markets

Big Al
August 6, 2015

Doc is here and he is worried about the future of the markets. With 6 straight down days he thinks this could be the start of the bear market. Just look internationally, there is weakness all over and this will continue to drag down the US markets.

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Discussion
108 Comments
    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:07 AM

    I informed this blog on monday that I had bought SDS last week, shorting the S&P.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:16 AM

    Al:
    When you mention people don’t want to see an erosion in markets, no one will argue that. However, isn’t that always the case? I believe everyone has a fear tolerance level, that if exceeded, automatically takes over and will sell at any price. I got there once in 2004 with a gold mutual fund. It turned the next day but I couldn’t hold on and so added to the damage. Just saying….
    Good comments, Doc.

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:23 AM

    I diksagree about a 40% drop. Not yet, because we need a blow off top first. Stocks will be propped up by virtue of their dividends. The bond market should collapse first.
    Stocks currently are not cheap, but they are NOT expensive relative to the bond market, which is in a bubble due to central bank purchases.
    The real question is whether the central will continue its ZIRP policy.
    Since it prints money at negligible cost, I suspect it will continue to print until the dollar becomes excessively weak.
    Remember the Federal Reserve is NOT federally owned, but owned by bankers, so who do you think it is really working for?
    If you answer to maximize bankers profits, you will be close to the truth.

      Aug 06, 2015 06:24 PM

      Me too.Stocks will go up further.zirp is like qe.Borrowing at zero interest and speculate on stocks or buy back stocks.Central banks are propping up markets too.It is convenient for a company listed on the stock exchange to buy back its stocks.The eps will be higher and ceos will get a bigger dividend cause many are paid partly with future options so it is in their interest to speculate on their own stock.There is no free market.

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:28 AM

    Seriously!
    Why really do you think we have had HARP, TARP, QE1, QE2, etc.?

    Was this the optimum policy? Or was it a policy to bail out banks?

    Aug 06, 2015 06:33 AM

    I enjoy Doc’s comments – Today Al says “Doc , what is the magnitude of the implosion you expect?” Doc responds – “Al I am not talking about an implosion but goes on to say that a 40-50% drop in share prices is not out of the question” …must be missing something !!

      Aug 06, 2015 06:01 PM

      40-50% over 18-24 months is not an implosion. The action of 2008-09 or the crash of 1987 are examples of implosions. In the bear market that started in 2000, the Dow lost almost 40% and the S&P 500 lost 50% but it took about 2.5 years.

      I agree with Doc’s view that we’re probably starting a bear market. We do not need a blowoff top.

      I hope Doc will correct me if I’ve misunderstood him.

        Aug 06, 2015 06:42 PM

        Matthew, couldn’t agree more—-when words like implosion, etc. are used I think of just a cascading down of prices. A real bear market just lolls you to sleep. 2 steps down and one step up over and over and it takes place over a couple of years. It’s gruesome in the sense people think after the initial move down and subsequent rebound that it’s like the past and will move higher again. They get whipsawed and before they know it they’re down 20% with more to go.

          Aug 06, 2015 06:30 PM

          Doc,
          I think you are right on. But I do think the correction is a slow crash. It looks like the Dow will hit 7,000 by February. Yes, it will be up and down, but down will be the deal. And your comments about a different type of QE were absolutely spot on!

            Aug 06, 2015 06:21 PM

            Wow, 7,000 by February is a crash and not a slow one.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:49 AM

            The Fed giveth, the market taketh away.
            QE is false accounting vapor. It will evaporate.

          Aug 07, 2015 07:13 AM

          Good thoughts in both the editorial and the blog today Doc. I appreciate hearing your thoughts and analysis.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:36 AM

    ( CAESAR OF ROME ) Is coming to America ( THE MARKETS WILL GO UP ) Your Army works ( NICE ) for Caesar you deserve a reward ! US MARKET UP !

    Aug 06, 2015 06:46 AM

    I think the next US QE will be what it should have been in the first place – investing in the US infrastructure.

    Roads, railways, the entire transportation situation. Ports and airports added lumped in with that. The electrical power system, which is a failing mess in the US, and broadband, etc, etc. New dams and water pipeways. The whole nine yards.

    That would bump up the commodities and, IMPO, would generate the missing inflation.

      Aug 06, 2015 06:11 PM

      Bob:
      You may be right. Sadly, that investment could have been made with many of the original TARP funds but it takes smart people to figure that out and most of those in charge don’t fit that definition.

        Aug 07, 2015 07:16 AM

        Agreed Bob UK and Silverdollar. There was some minimal infrastructure used from TARP, but unfortunately most of the TARP funds went to clean up bank balance sheets. Instead of loaning it out to small businesses, the banks sat on it, and then borrowed at near 0% and then played in the stock market for returns. What a waste of taxpayers money.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:49 AM

    what is the magnitude of the bounce in gold that you are expecting doc?to what level you think gold will bounce?

    Aug 06, 2015 06:12 PM

    Raze it, raze it to the ground.

    They managed to get a few more years out of stocks and those invested in them got the biggest gift of their lives

    Now there are just too many holes in the boat and it is time to let it sink.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:15 PM

    There’s no bounce in gold here.

    Commodities have no bottom, stocks to follow

    This is game set and match folks, I kid you not

    Aug 06, 2015 06:03 PM

    james– are you on auto pilot…?

    Aug 06, 2015 06:59 PM

    Agatha,

    Please elaborate.

    I’m curious to know exactly what I am missing

    Aug 06, 2015 06:02 PM

    FIRE UP THE helicopter ……..drop some cash from the sky……

      Aug 07, 2015 07:31 AM

      funny. I’m sure we’ll see that again at some point, but for now the show must go on…

    Aug 06, 2015 06:06 PM

    I am not shorting S&P. Correction is possible but not bear market. To reach bear market, liquidity has to go away and interest rate has to be a lot higher. Most importantly, FED has to decide not to support the market ANY MORE.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:32 PM

    OK.
    One of my pet peeves is the mis-use of “Order of Magnitude”.
    It means “10 x” or “10 times”

    “If numbers differ by 1 order of magnitude, x is about ten times different in quantity than y. If values differ by 2 orders of magnitude, they differ by a factor of about 100. Two numbers of the same order of magnitude have roughly the same scale: the larger value is less than ten times the smaller value.”

    Example: The Richter Scale for earthquakes.

    “As measured with a seismometer, an earthquake that registers 5.0 on the Richter scale has a shaking amplitude 10 times that of an earthquake that registered 4.0,

    A 5.0 earthquake is a magnitude larger than a 4.0

      Aug 06, 2015 06:54 PM

      +1 😐

      Aug 07, 2015 07:19 AM

      Great point Brian. I think it would be better to just talk percentage increases or declines. Usually a 10-20% move is a correction, and 30-50% is bear market.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:39 PM

    RIG up 12% today.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:18 PM

    Most of the people that post on this site are concerned about their investments that’s okay for them but the future is happening now and I will refer you to the Republican Presidential debates, Trump could be a game changer, why don’t posters here become more political and less critical. Tonight the first Republican debate is on TV but few here care, and I don’t want to hear the same old rhetoric it doesn’t really matter. Guess what it does. DT!

      Aug 06, 2015 06:40 PM

      We live in a time where life is all about me, myself, and I, no wonder our society is so askew. DT

      Aug 06, 2015 06:41 PM

      DT, the Trump is not as he appears. He’s there to split the R vote so his (well documented) buddy Hilary can win. He’s a globalist crony. If he posed any threat to the establishment, the MSM would be “Ron Pauling” him.

      It does not matter. When has any politician ever made good on any promises of any significance? When has an incoming president ever repealed the bad laws of the outgoing president? Never. The leviathan just keeps advancing and growing as the buffoon masses focus on distracting but entertaining left/right minutiae.

        Aug 06, 2015 06:44 PM

        Matthew, I have supported in the past but this time I can see you have it all figured out, if life wasn’t so easy. DT

        Aug 06, 2015 06:51 PM

        Not sure about your exuberance in touting gold stocks, Matthew, but I agree with you on this one! Splitting the Republican vote may just be the whole point!

      Aug 06, 2015 06:48 PM

      Trump is popular because he is the anti-politician. I don’t think he will succeed. Right now he seems unstoppable but those in political power have many tricks up their sleeves to keep themselves in power. If he brings change that’s needed, I’m all for it, but I don’t think he will succeed. Any number of scandals, new or contrived (I doubt he needs ones contrived though!) could knock him out of the running. If the media is horrible (which it is), they may wait until he is the only Republican candidate before they unleash the attack.

        Aug 06, 2015 06:53 PM

        Wiseguy, we all want change, when someone comes forward who is a businessman and understands how the mechanics work, most say let’s accept what doesn’t work rather then thinking there is a way out. DT

          Aug 07, 2015 07:48 AM

          That is correct, until people get so fed up that revolution is sensed to be a citizen’s duty. We aren’t to that place yet.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:22 PM
    Aug 06, 2015 06:55 PM

    Thanks again Matthew for ALL your input..continually appreciate it..keep it up…man..:)

      Aug 07, 2015 07:21 AM

      agreed.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:04 PM

    It is really sad when Americans aren’t interested in reform although the ones here claim to be but they don’t get involved even in in looking for a way out. Why wouldn’t you pay attention to your political debates are you even you that disinterested. As a Canadian , I know I am not! DT

      GH
      Aug 06, 2015 06:03 PM

      Nothing of interest happens there DT. They blather about the false reality that has been constructed to bamboozle Americans, and tell a bunch of lies. Access is controlled by the Democrat and Republican parties.

      The public discourse in America has become so perverted by the pervasive propaganda system that paying attention to it will likely lower your IQ. I know very few people with whom I can even discuss politics in the US in a worthwhile way.

      One small example. Virtually all Americans accept the corporate media’s lies about what’s happening in Ukraine. Multiply that many, many events.

      Those who run the country for their own benefit have pretty much destroyed the ability of the general populace to engage in productive discourse about policy.

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:16 PM

    Meanwhile as Obama is destroying US military capability:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/divine-eagle-how-much-of-a-threat-is-chinas-new-highflying-drone-to-us-air-superiority-10441385.html

    I also hear under the Obama administration that Chinese troops are being trained on US soil on American tactics and methods. It happened first in 2013 and repeated as part of RIMPAC exercises last year.
    Unbelievable,! Please someone, impeach him. A Traitor!
    The Chinese have publish maps of US together with nuke strikes and estimated American death tolls.

      GH
      Aug 06, 2015 06:07 PM

      Seems the military itself does a pretty good job damaging the US. Un-auditable finances, pork-barrel projects galore, destroying our reputation and good will around the world by brutalizing civilians in pointless wars. Etc. ad nauseum.

      That’s not to say I like Obama. I’d say pretty much all of our national level politicians are traitors, if not keeping their oaths to uphold the constitution counts as treason.

      GH
      Aug 06, 2015 06:13 PM

      e.g.:

      http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/08/05/u-s-government-enthusiastically-tweets-about-its-arm-sales-to-the-brutal-and-autocratic-egyptian-regime/

      And this after the US propped up their last brutal dictator for 30 years! What have the poor Egyptian people done to deserve such treatment from the US? And of course the US has done this to many countries. This doesn’t meet my definition of enhancing our national security.

    Aug 06, 2015 06:29 PM

    Axel Merk is talking my book:

    http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=673209

      Aug 07, 2015 07:32 AM

      Good post FranSix. I always enjoy listening to Axel Merk and concur with many of the points he makes.

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:29 PM
    Aug 06, 2015 06:29 PM

    I bought SPXS this week to short the S&P. Phil Grande says the crash started in June with the largest stock sell off in US history.

      Aug 07, 2015 07:34 AM

      I was thinking of doing the same Jason, but decided to finally allocate some funds to the miners on Wed/Thur. Glad I did today as they are up nicely. If we get a move back up in the S&P with some strength, I’m considering both SPXS and TZA.

        Aug 07, 2015 07:34 AM

        TZA shorts the Russell 2000.

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:33 PM

    Remember illegals from Nicaragua were hospitalized for carrying the plague.?…….Well apparently those were not the only ones carrying it:

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/aug/06/n-carolina-insurer-must-raise-premiums-more-than/

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:40 PM

    Police Department of Eugene, Oregon found guilty of discrimination for daring to ask if job applicants were american citizens!

    Unbelievable!

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:24 PM

    OFF TOPIC, but pieces are coming together in a truly scary way.

    I am told by someone I believe and trust that Iran has ordered Club K or Klub K missiles from Russia.

    If you’ve not heard of these, you may check them out at:
    http://archive.defensenews.com/article/20140416/DEFREG03/304160021/Russian-Missile-System-Masquerading-Innocent-Cargo-Container
    or
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/7632543/A-cruise-missile-in-a-shipping-box-on-sale-to-rogue-bidders.html
    or
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M-54_Klub

    Now ask yourself the question:
    If I wanted to attack Israel (or the US) in such a wsay that I could not be blamed unambiguously for the attack, what is the best way to do it?

    What is more anonymous than a slightly run-down container ship sailing in international waters far away from its country of origin?

    Get the pieces fitting together?

    Ok, you’re thinking they might attack Iran, but the US is too big to hurt much with just a nuke or two. It may take out a few cities but we could survive that easily and retaliate.

    Here’s another piece of the puzzle:

    Dis you know the US has had two Commissions studying Electromagnetic pulse effects and making recommendations. The most recent being in 2012.

    Obama and Congress have totally ignored those recommendations.
    http://www.hstoday.us/briefings/daily-news-analysis/single-article/emp-attack-on-us-would-be-catastrophic-congress-told/1b5e33a26545ac5ebf9398f00064dc0a.html
    or
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/james-woolsey-and-peter-vincent-pry-the-growing-threat-from-an-emp-attack-1407885281

    the consequence of ONE powerful nuke EMP set off in orbit above the center of the US could be 200 million Americans dead within two years; mostly from starvation.

    Korea is thought to have the technology, as do Russia and China.

    Now the final piece of the puzzle:

    Iran and North Korea have an agreement to work together on nuclear technology:
    https://books.google.com/books?id=ZCIwNCoTx_8C&pg=PA22&lpg=PA22&dq=iran+korea+agreement+on+nuclear+development&source=bl&ots=ANUcjv_TnS&sig=Gamp1ByN76XIddXMAm-CBTIk3Xo&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CF8Q6AEwC2oVChMI1qa3nOaVxwIVgTGICh0n1g5J#v=onepage&q=iran%20korea%20agreement%20on%20nuclear%20development&f=false
    or
    http://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm/frm/160346/sec_id/160346

    Think about the danger of Obama’s treachery!

    CFS
    Aug 06, 2015 06:27 PM

    I meant they might attack Israel not Iran in line about 16 above.

    Aug 07, 2015 07:22 AM

    The Republican candidates and the moderator spent all their time and energy last night attacking Donald Trump, even Rand Paul looked ridiculous he obviously isn’t his father Dr. Ron Paul. I guess most of the other candidates felt uncomfortable without their cell phones. That is to say they have no substance, but Trump speaks the truth. DT

      Aug 07, 2015 07:36 AM

      DT, I’m surprised at you. You’re right, Rand is no Ron, but speaking up for the Bill of Rights is ridiculous? That attitude is why the U.S. and the West are absolutely screwed.

      Did you miss the part where Trump pretty much proved what I’ve been saying? He will run as an independent if necessary to keep the R vote split.

      Didn’t you wonder why he would want someone like Hillary at his wedding?

      It’s all theater and Trump is your typical globalist crony.

        Aug 07, 2015 07:45 AM

        good point

          Aug 07, 2015 07:49 AM

          BUT, we do need another party……….NOT THE TWO HEADED SNAKE…….

            Aug 07, 2015 07:53 AM

            Five parties won’t help unless the sheeple wake-up and zero parties will be needed if they ever do. Ironic ain’t it?

            Aug 07, 2015 07:03 AM

            Very………..

            Aug 07, 2015 07:10 AM

            I guess we can count on the sheeple never figuring it out…….and plan accordingly.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:15 AM

            That’s the smartest approach!

        Aug 07, 2015 07:54 AM

        Matthew, you are a critical thinker but when it comes to politics your mind is closed and I think you need to allow yourself to assess what is happening now not what has happened in the past. DT

          Aug 07, 2015 07:10 AM

          Is that your way of saying “Go Hillary!?” Just kidding.

          Without some evidence to support your claim, I don’t believe that my mind is closed.

          Do Trump supporters really believe that building a wall is a good idea? Wouldn’t it be cheaper to recognize/admit that the immigration problem exists by design and that there would be no problem if existing laws were strictly enforced? How many illegals would get hired if those doing the hiring knew that stiff fines and jail were likely not just a slap on the wrist or far less? Why is it that poor Latin American countries protect their borders far better than the most powerful country on earth? And why is it that only in the U.S. is it seen as a race issue when it is clearly a legal and therefore economic issue? I’ll tell you why, because there’s an agenda. That’s where my commentary ends. Figure it out.

            CFS
            Aug 07, 2015 07:27 AM

            I hope I am not right at putting the pieces together.

            Because if I am right the US will cease to exist in another decade.

            I can’t believe Congress has no one with sufficient insight to see what I believe is happening; either financially to the country, or with the Iran treaty.
            Seriously interested folks should bother to go to some of the sites for which I gave URLs and look at the pieces of information collected and see if you come to any similar conclusion.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:30 AM

            Matthew, the fence is necessary because first you must stop the illegals from coming then you can deal with the existing laws. If you don’t plug the porous border it’s pointless shipping them back.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:33 PM

            DT, they wouldn’t come at all if the opportunities they seek were removed. That means jailing those who hire them rather than looking the other way as they’ve always done. They should also get not government perks of any kind. The wall is ridiculous and unnecessary. The shadow government want exactly what’s happening.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:48 PM

            Matthew, when people become desperate laws to regulate their movement are meaningless you must stop them at the border. Look at what is happening all over the World in Europe and The Middle East.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:51 PM

            DT, desperate people go where there’s opportunity; eliminate the hiring of illegals and the vast majority would stay home.

            What’s happening in Europe is also by design. The globalist central planners are trying to destroy each nation’s identity and sovereignty by diluting their cultures, languages and sense of community with a flood of people who could hardly be more different.

            By rewarding these criminal immigrants with access to the perks of the system and giving them drivers licenses, social security numbers, and even the right to vote, U.S. leaders are proving what their intentions really are.

            Get ready for the North American Union.

      Aug 07, 2015 07:46 AM

      DT……….I SAID BEFORE RAND IS NO PAUL………………THE CLAW

    CFS
    Aug 07, 2015 07:42 AM

    I’m still buying, focused on silver. (Call me CashForSilver, CFS)
    Bought some more ASM this morning. No dividend, but positive cashflow, P/E ratio.

      Aug 07, 2015 07:50 AM

      Good one CashForSilver! I been following ASM for a while and we had some good overall discussions on it 2 weeks back. Good call and good luck. My Silver & Gold stocks are up nicely today 🙂

        Aug 07, 2015 07:53 AM

        On August 6, 2015 at 2:51 am,
        Shad says:

        Me too. I want to see a bounce start on Friday or the beginning of next week, and hope it doesn’t take until the 3rd week of August. Having said that, I’ll take the bounce the 3rd week over it falling out of bed here, because I just entered a few new positions in the miners to play the potential bounce. I still have some dry powder if we drop further, but Gary’s point about now being a time with so many indicators coming together does lend some rationale behind taking a contrarian position.

        I’m about a 40% contrarian at this time (more than that percentage if you count some of the other sectors I have positions in). The only snag is the turmoil in China and some of the Greek fireworks earlier this week has kept adding strength to the USD and is keeping a lid on commodities. At this point it is still a tug-o-war, and I’m hoping Friday turns the tide (and doesn’t pull out the rug).

        On August 6, 2015 at 9:35 am,
        Shad says:

        “….. I’d like to see Gold get above $1094-1095 and see if it has any legs after that.”

          Aug 07, 2015 07:56 AM

          Well, Friday has bounced, and Gold did finally punch through $1094-$1095 and climbing. Currently at $1098.70. $1100 may act as resistance, and slap it back down a bit, but overall……very nice!

          CFS
          Aug 07, 2015 07:06 AM

          I don’t know where gold or silver are going short term. I’m just hoping to preserve capital. (Not even sure I’m doing that well)

          These times in which we live are much too interesting.
          Alas, I suspect they will not get any easier during my lifetime, but the US is clearly in decay and will try to muddle through indefinitely.
          It makes sense to try to preserve some of one’s assets as best as possible, but the best technique is highly debatable. Diversification guarantees, I hope, will preserve something.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:11 AM

            Yes, I these are unprecedented times, and I’m a fan of diversification of assets to reduce risk. Sometimes it limits my gains, but I’d rather limit that downside as well.

            Good luck to you CFS!

        Aug 07, 2015 07:55 AM

        Hey Shad, great timing on your purchase of Americas Silver Corp. yesterday. Are you now marking your investment up? 😮 😉 +9% today!

          Aug 07, 2015 07:09 AM

          Thanks. Yes, I’m happy I added to Americas Silver Corp yesterday 🙂

          Also Argonaut, Yamana, and Sandstorm are moving higher as well so those were nice pickups as well. Silvercrest, SIL, and Hecla are moving higher again as well. These all also had some nice gains yesterday afternoon but here’s the report card today so far:

          Argonaut Gold Inc. (ARNGF) -Other OTC
          0.9706 Up 0.0196(2.06%) 9:53AM EDT

          Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY) -NYSE
          1.93 Up 0.13(7.22%) 11:03AM EDT

          Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SAND) -NYSE MKT
          2.59 Up 0.10(4.02%) 11:03AM EDT

          Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) -NYSEArca
          6.66 Up 0.20(3.10%) 11:04AM EDT

          Hecla Mining Co. (HL) -NYSE
          1.96 Up 0.05(2.62%) 11:06AM EDT

          Silvercrest Mines Inc. (SVLC) -NYSE MKT
          0.8865 Up 0.0565(6.81%) 11:03AM EDT

          Some were up even more earlier, but I’m happy so far with the Friday bounce I was hoping for. Cheers!

            CFS
            Aug 07, 2015 07:48 AM

            I own some SVLC so I can get all their reports in full. I believe they have great potential and don’t want to knock them or appear to knock them in any way. But I tend to concentrate more on producing companies, because there tend to be fewer losses on stocks which are dependent on substantial financing and building i.e. less risk.
            Controlling risk is importatant to me.

            Profile for SilverCrest Mines Inc (SVLC)
            $ 0.87 0.04 (+4.82%) Volume: 20.42k 11:11 AM EDT Aug 7, 2015

            Revenue (LTM) ($): 43.92m
            Revenue per Share (LTM) ($): 0.46
            Revenue per Employee (LTM) ($): 170,507.73
            Revenue Growth 3 Yr: -8.87%

            Annual Dividend Rate ($): N/A
            Annual Dividend Yield: N/A

            Stock Splits: N/A
            Quick Ratio: 1.20
            Current Ratio: 7.00
            Long Term Debt to Total Capital: N/A
            Total Debt to Equity: N/A

            Gross Margin: 43.70%
            Pre-Tax Profit Margin: 101.30%
            Profit Margin (Cont. Op): -6.34%
            Profit Margin
            Management Effectiveness LTM 5 Yr Avg
            Return on Equity -1.05% 2.16%
            Return on Capital -0.82% 22.97%
            Return on Assets -0.82% 0.77%

            Asset Turnover: 0.10
            Inventory Turnover: 4.90
            Receivable Turnover: 3.60

            P/E Ratio: N/A

            Price to Sales: 1.79
            Price to Book: 0.69
            Price to Tangible Book: 0.72
            Price to Cash Flow: 9.30
            Price to Free Cash: -7.80

            Aug 07, 2015 07:57 AM

            CFS – They are being acquired by First Majestic for consideration of 0.2769 of a common share of First Majestic (the “Exchange Ratio”) plus C$0.0001 in cash per SilverCrest common share. For me, the bounce in PMs will help First Majestic, and the price of SilverCrest is now pegged to the mother ship.

            The financials will be irrelevant once the acquisition happens, and Keith and the team at First Majestic are more than capable to get things rocking with Silvercrest’s assets.

            Aug 07, 2015 07:13 AM

            Silvercrest Mines Inc. (SVLC) -NYSE MKT
            0.8869 Up 0.0569(6.86%) 11:40AM ED

            First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) -NYSE  Watchlist
            3.16 Up 0.14(4.64%) 12:08PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
            ________________________________________________
            Silvercrest is actually outperforming the ratio at present:

            ($3.16 AG x .2769 exchange) = $.875 (Currently SLVC @ $.8869)

            Aug 07, 2015 07:44 AM

            Sorry about that last post, as it wasn’t making sense that it would trade at a premium to the ratio, and I updated the pricing a few moret times and my browser was stuck. The ratio is back on the money and will likely remain pegged to AG from now on:

            Silvercrest Mines Inc. (SVLC)
            0.8721 +0.0421(+5.07%) AMEX – As of 12:15PM EDT

    Aug 07, 2015 07:44 AM

    silver looking good…………….

      CFS
      Aug 07, 2015 07:54 AM

      don’t bother to look at how my stocks are doing each day, but hope this profile on ASM might be of use to folks.

    CFS
    Aug 07, 2015 07:50 AM

    Profile for Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM)
    $ 0.9399 -0.025 (-2.59%) Volume: 10.83k 10:19 AM EDT Aug 7, 2015
    Income Statements
    Revenue (LTM) ($): 9.79m
    Revenue per Share (LTM) ($): 0.35
    Revenue per Employee (LTM) ($): 30,613.12

    Dividends & Splits
    Annual Dividend Rate ($): N/A
    Annual Dividend Yield: N/A

    Stock Splits: 0.50; 2:1 (02/11/1994)
    Financial Strength (LTM)
    Quick Ratio: 0.30
    Current Ratio: 1.20
    Long Term Debt to Total Capital: 0.04
    Total Debt to Equity: 0.07
    Interest Coverage: 14.70
    Leverage Ratio: 1.40

    Gross Margin: 40.20%
    EBIT Margin: 22.90%
    EBITDA Margin: 28.50%

    Profit Margin (Cont. Op): 12.86%
    Profit Margin (Total Op): 12.86%

    Return on Equity 3.69% 2.69%
    Return on Capital 3.85% -3.64%
    Return on Assets 2.61% 1.13%

    Assets
    Asset Turnover: 0.10
    Inventory Turnover: 2.90
    Receivable Turnover: 2.10

    P/E Ratio: 25.20

    Price to Sales: 2.77
    Price to Book: 0.96
    Price to Tangible Book: 0.96
    Price to Cash Flow: 15.40
    Price to Free Cash: -2.40

      Aug 07, 2015 07:25 AM

      Yes, I’m a fan, and if you check out some of what they have planned on their website with the mine improvements, the recent acquisition and exploration on the Bralorne Gold Mine, and their initiative to process the old tailings, then they have a bright future in my opinion.

    Aug 07, 2015 07:31 AM
    Aug 07, 2015 07:53 AM

    As a follow up on the weekend show regarding Seabridge Gold; it is up 22.48% today:

    Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA) -NYSE  Watchlist
    4.75 Up 0.87(22.48%) 11:51AM EDT – NYSE Real Time Price
    _______________________________________________________________________
    On August 1, 2015 at 9:29 am,
    Shad says:

    Fronkly speaking…. I believe Seabridge Gold has a very bright future.

    On August 1, 2015 at 11:27 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    The only objection that I have with Seabridge , is they need a partner to build out the project(s). A joint venture with deeper pockets, and that sometimes mean you are having to trust someone with the control and hopefully they will not get in your back pockets and drain you………………………………………………CCF……….the claw

    On August 1, 2015 at 4:43 pm,
    Shad says:

    Yes, but if you heard what Rudi said, there are 12 different companies with non-disclosure agreements discussions options, and you know that those are the Majors or larger Mid-tiers that are going to partner up. What I see is a project that may actually see the light of day, and I’d like to have a position before that news breaks.

    On August 2, 2015 at 6:31 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Good thought…………………………I am waiting tell I see sunlight….just coming out of hibernation………………………….the CLAWOn August 1, 2015 at 8:48 am,

    Big Al says:
    I have known Rudy for a longtime and I can tell you that he is not only a quality individual but also a very capable member of the industry.

    On August 1, 2015 at 9:36 am,
    John Chew says:

    Thanks for the interview. Would it make sense to discuss the economics of SA’s deposit. With low grades of less than 1/2 gram of gold, is the deposit even economic?

    There is plenty of gold in the ocean, but not economic to extract. $7 EV to oz of gold tells you nothing. You can buy free cash flow operators for almost cash value. Why SA?

    On August 1, 2015 at 9:49 am,
    John Chew says:

    I forgot to add: I’m not complaining; just understanding why this company is or could be an outstanding investment vs others.
    ______________________________________________________________________

    SEABRIDGE GOLD PILOT PLANT SUCCESSFULLY TREATS SELENIUM IN KSM WATER
    Tuesday, 4th August 2015

    http://seabridgegold.net/News/Article/540/seabridge-gold-pilot-plant-successfully-treats-selenium-in-ksm-water-

      Aug 07, 2015 07:15 AM

      THANKS FOR THE REPLY……………..NICE……………….. 22+% ONE WEEK…….

        Aug 07, 2015 07:17 AM

        if MY real estate went up 22% in one YEAR I would be happy

          Aug 07, 2015 07:26 AM

          Agreed. Big time!

            Aug 07, 2015 07:47 AM

            Correction – now up 23.71%. Wow.

            Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA) -NYSE  Watchlist
            4.80 Up 0.92(23.71%) 12:46PM EDT – NYSE Real Time Price

            Aug 07, 2015 07:06 AM

            Wake up call………….radar list……………………………..

    Aug 08, 2015 08:47 AM

    it’s interesting what Doc says abut taxes and QE because the original Ben S Bernanke paper on fighting Japane’s deflation perhaps that got him named Helicopter Ben said:
    “Of course, the BOJ has no unilateral authority to rain money on
    the population. The policy being proposed—-a money-financed tax cut—-
    23 is a combination of fiscal and monetary policies. ”
    http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf
    ben s bernanke japan self induced paralysis

      Aug 08, 2015 08:48 AM

      and then he went on to mention:
      “money-financed transfers to domestic households—-the real-life
      equivalent of that hoary thought experiment, the “helicopter drop” of
      newly printed money. I think most economists would agree that a large
      enough helicopter drop must raise the price level.”