Are we right around the corner from a “Financial Reckoning Day”?
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With the Chinese actions revaluing it currency, albeit somewhat slightly, financial markets around the world have so far today reacted negatively. Does this mean that we are getting closer to the “Financial Reckoning Day”?
Doc, Cory and Big Al think that might truly be the case this time.
Still want XON at 40 bucks – not sure I am going to get it though.
Doc, do you also think XOM will drop to 40? I got my mom to buy several thousand shares of XOM in 1980 at less than $2 and she’s never sold.
TrdewithG; I would stay away for a few months now. What I did today was buy back my 50 August calls and write 40 Sept. calls. I believe the stock will probably get a short term reprieve and then head lower toward 40. It appears to be a great stock for the future but now is hurt technically. I believe the general market is now at risk and that will hurt the high flyers and XON is one of them. It’ll have to bottom for quite awhile and then I’ll add to my position. There is no hurry. Happy to have helped you.
Doc, Thanks. Great respect for your knowledge. you are Genius!!!. Do you offer any service where you recommend stock like XON for 15 years to hold?
Doc – Volatility may be gradually starting to rear it’s head after a long bottoming process. Check out the action in UVXY recently. I know you don’t really swing trade often, but this one has been a blast lately, but I’m considering building a longer term position finally. Recently, rather than shorting the markets, I’ve just been buying UVXY during extreme complacency and then selling when the markets gets roiled and it spikes up. Could this be a tipping point where we see the equity markets reverse and volatility spike?
I’d really enjoy any thoughts you have on the VIX and volatility possibly returning due to the topping pattern in the general markets and the extreme complacency and lows in volatility lately. Also, I have even considered building a buy and hold longer term postion in UVXY and wondered how you see this area of the investing universe.
August 10, 2015, 12:40 P.M. ET
A Tale Of Two VIX Signals
Shad, I bought the VIXY today since the daily BBs are really narrowing. The way the MACD on the Dow looks on the daily, the odds are good that we break to the upside on the daily vixy tomorrow. However, if we break down then I’ll sell my position.
Good thoughts Doc. Yes I saw the narrowing Bollinger Bands and thought the same thing. I bought UVXY yesterday and sold on the spike up today. If we get a dip back down tomorrow I’m going back in, but think, with the volatility this low that this may be a time to start building a longer-term position (just in case their is a big correction in Sept/Oct). What are your thoughts a little more longer term 3-6 months?
OK – After looking at charts for the general indexes, high flying stocks in the tech and healthcare sector, reading about 10 articles on the general markets and volatility I just picked up a small position in the afterhours trading in UVXY at $26.50, which is not bad considering I sold my prior position at $27.38 earlier today. If the general markets are to the downside again tomorrow, then this should do well, but I’ll have to wait until the pre-markets to see what the lay of the land is. Good luck tomorrow in your trading Doc Charley.
Wow! I just sold my UVXY position in the pre-market trading for $30.00, for a 13% profit from afterhours to premarket. Thank you China!!
Why to Expect More Volatility Ahead (Part 5 of 5)
Avoid Momentum Stocks, as Volatility Could Pick Up
By Russ Koesterich, CFA – Disclosure • BlackRock • Aug 6, 2015
“Growth expectations and credit market conditions are both important determinants of equity market volatility. Last week the VIX Index, a measure of stock market volatility, traded back down to 12, roughly 40 percent below its long-term average, according to Bloomberg data. This implies equity investors may be too complacent.
Should volatility rise and equities correct, one area of the market is particularly at risk: the popular “momentum” trade (in other words, stocks or sectors exhibiting strong price gains recently). If volatility heats up, so-called momentums stocks, which have rallied strongly this year, could falter.
Volatility Has Sobered Down after the Greek Debt Resolution 2015-08-05
As the graph above shows, stock volatility has plummeted after the resolution in the Greek debt episode. However, all the factors cited in the previous parts point to higher stock volatility (VXX) going forward.
Momentum stocks are those that are more likely to keep moving in the upward trajectory. This strategy typically relies on short-term moves and not fundamental analysis. This is why their prices tend to be frothy. In a risk-off situation, investors usually punish these stocks more. Thus, when volatility (VIXY) does rise, these stocks are likely to underperform. “
August through November, most volatile time of the year
JEFFHIRSCH 5:35 PM
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/126453639783/august-through-november-most-volatile-time-of-the
Investment Legends Warn of a Crash
By Graham Summers Phoenix Capital Research On August 11, 2015
http://gainspainscapital.com/2015/08/11/investment-legends-warn-of-a-crash/
The Central Banks Will Soon Implode Taking Down the Financial System
By Graham Summers Phoenix Capital Research On August 10, 2015
12 Signs That An Imminent Global Financial Crash Has Become Even More Likely
August 11th, 2015 – ETF Daily News
Global Stock Correction Continues
by Tiho | Aug 12, 2015
-S&P is now on the verge of breaking its tight range and trading below the 200 day MA
-Possibility of a 10% correction is high, with last one occurring almost 4 years ago
-If the global stock market correction continues, Emerging Markets will feel more pain
https://shortsideoflong.com/2015/08/global-stock-correction-continues/
Those were a few of the articles I read today that makes me think volatility may return to the marketplace in a big way in the next 2 months, and why starting to build a position in VIXY or UVXY may be prudent. (not investment advise).
Anyone else have any thoughts on taking advantage of the complacent marketplace and the present very low volatility readings?
(UVXY) surged 11-14% this morning in pre-market and early morning action.
Still have Bonner’s book in my ‘old’ collection. It was a great title and it may be apropos for the near future. Guess we’ll see, won’t we. Just a thought: Maybe China is trying to save the less developed who are in dollar debt up to their ears by heroically keeping the Fed from raising rates. Kind of a ‘back door move and perhaps a brilliant one’. I’ve no doubt they know what they’re doing. It’s likely much more difficult for Occidentals to understand. Been reading an old book: The Ugly American again. Likely my above thought was assisted by that experience.
Hi Doc!
Any thoughts on Theralase given the recent price decline? TLTFF actually touched 20cents earlier today. I sold it a few weeks back at 29cents and am wondering if it’s now a buy at these lower levels? Thanks in advance.
Clark, it looks like Theralase is heading to $.20 and late Sept. might be a good time to look at it again for purchase—-unless news comes out before that. However, the clinical trials are to supposedly begin later this year so no significant news should be in the offing for awhile.
An economy is not SUPPOSED to be totally controlled by a central bank.
Economies historically and should be regulated by TAXATION POLICIES.
We have a corrupt incompetent government and OVER-TAXATION killing the economy.
QE ON THE WAY…………….
Deflation? There will never be deflation in a fiat currency world. Period. The only deflation this country saw was in the 30s when money was destroyed by banks. We now live in a world where money is credited digitally. Yes PRICES of some assets might rise or fall, but that is not deflation or inflation. Some knowledgeable guy once said that inflation always has and always will be a MONETARY EVENT.
This is an excellent article.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-11/will-china-play-gold-card
Dis is a plant robbery of the World’s population ! Agenda 21 !
Facebook wil call police ! SLAVE’S !
By the Way…….for anyone following Seabridge it continues it tear up. This is getting crazy, and I would expect a reversal, but look at a 5 day chart……dang!
Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA)
5.67 +0.65(+12.95%) NYSE – As of 3:04PM EDT
up about 45% since last Thursday. Big Al & Cory – thanks for having them on the show ahead of the curve. Here were some of the thoughts we had last week:
_______________________________________________________________________
On August 1, 2015 at 9:29 am,
Shad says:
Fronkly speaking…. I believe Seabridge Gold has a very bright future.
On August 1, 2015 at 11:27 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
The only objection that I have with Seabridge , is they need a partner to build out the project(s). A joint venture with deeper pockets, and that sometimes mean you are having to trust someone with the control and hopefully they will not get in your back pockets and drain you………………………………………………CCF……….the claw
On August 1, 2015 at 4:43 pm,
Shad says:
Yes, but if you heard what Rudi said, there are 12 different companies with non-disclosure agreements discussions options, and you know that those are the Majors or larger Mid-tiers that are going to partner up. What I see is a project that may actually see the light of day, and I’d like to have a position before that news breaks.
On August 2, 2015 at 6:31 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
Good thought…………………………I am waiting tell I see sunlight….just coming out of hibernation………………………….the CLAW
On August 1, 2015 at 8:48 am,
Big Al says:
I have known Rudy for a longtime and I can tell you that he is not only a quality individual but also a very capable member of the industry.
On August 1, 2015 at 9:36 am,
John Chew says:
Thanks for the interview. Would it make sense to discuss the economics of SA’s deposit. With low grades of less than 1/2 gram of gold, is the deposit even economic?
There is plenty of gold in the ocean, but not economic to extract. $7 EV to oz of gold tells you nothing. You can buy free cash flow operators for almost cash value. Why SA?
On August 1, 2015 at 9:49 am,
John Chew says:
I forgot to add: I’m not complaining; just understanding why this company is or could be an outstanding investment vs others.
On August 7, 2015 at 9:15 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
THANKS FOR THE REPLY……………..NICE……………….. 22+% ONE WEEK…….
On August 7, 2015 at 9:17 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
if MY real estate went up 22% in one YEAR I would be happy
On August 7, 2015 at 9:26 am,
Shad says:
Agreed. Big time!
On August 7, 2015 at 9:47 am,
Shad says:
Correction – now up 23.71%. Wow.
Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA) -NYSE Watchlist
4.80 Up 0.92(23.71%) 12:46PM EDT – NYSE Real Time Price
On August 7, 2015 at 10:06 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
Wake up call………….radar list……………………………..
On August 7, 2015 at 10:14 am,
Bob UK says:
Surely the Seabridge bounce is just very over-exaggerated today and it will give up the 23% gains in the coming weeks.
Looks like shorts having to cover in the same way shorts had to cover with RIG this week?
On August 7, 2015 at 12:13 pm,
Shad says:
You’re likely correct Bob UK. It was likely a short covering rally, but it was sure an interesting streak.
On August 7, 2015 at 3:50 pm,
Temple says:
Could very well be…
On August 7, 2015 at 10:18 am,
CFS says:
I agree on Seabridge with two provisos:
Development requires huge financing.
The concentrations of Gold/copper are on the low side…..requiring substantial physical price increases.
So I’d like anyone’s thoughts on whether Seabridge can sustain this rally even higher, or whether they feel it will correct down hard?
Is there possibly some news leaking out about who may be partnering with them for the financing of the project? They said in the interview 2 weekends ago that they had non-disclosure agreements with 12 different companies at present.
I SEE THE LIGHT……AND it ain’t no train………………………the semi claw…..
Good to see you’ve seen the light semi-claw-dawg…..Contrarian’s Contrarian Frank.
Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA) -NYSE Watchlist
5.76 Up 0.74(14.74%) 4:01PM EDT
This stock has increased so much and so fast, that SA may very well correct down hard from these lofty levels and the light may be an oncoming train coming to run over the longs…….But never J….The Long….OOTB of course:-)
My question is why it is rising so much, as this 47% move up seems more than just short-covering. I am wondering if they have found a financing partner out of the 12 that have been meeting with them, and some people know what’s up already. Very interesting.
Shad,
I just saw the SA chart, wowzers! I’m glad Al and Cory had them on the show. Looking at the chart today makes me feel kinda goofy, but hey, I’ll be with it..
It does look as if the run is about over. Tipping on the daily and getting close on the weekly. It has more downside IMO. But I sure wish I was looking at it last Wednesday …
Yes, agreed that it may top soon and reverse, but I wonder what will happen if Gold suddenly surges to $1130? Regardless, it has been such a quick rise, that I’d expect it to give back some of the gains, unless investors in the know are front-running a major announcement of their financing partner.
I know. I can’t tell if GDX/GDXJ are topped or going higher. I keep thinking we get a quick pullback before the run up, but it never comes. Or maybe it already happened and the bounce is mute.
Strange markets right now. I’m thinking oil and commodities ( not gold ) are getting really close ( maybe a week or so ) to a bottom. Gold on the other hand has a long ways to go before it hits bottom.
All the emerging markets are getting real close to a bottom. At least the ones I’m watching. Something big is about to break loose.
Yes, agreed that something big is about to break loose.
I could see GDXJ making it to $21.72 before correcting back, but felt like the action was odd (hesitant is a better word) today in Gold and the miners. I’ve sold out of some of my individual mining positions and have been playing the ETFs yesterday and today. I sold my JNUG position today near the close and considered buying JDST in case their was a pullback tomorrow. I agree with many that think Gold will make a run towards $1131 before pulling back down, and that there still may be legs to this rally, but as for tomorrow….no idea. The overseas markets will be interesting to watch to see what support or resistance levels they may test.
SHAD…..GOOD THOUGHT ON the ….”finding a financing partner out of the 12″…………………..CLAW
If an announcement comes out soon that they have determined who their partner (Major or large Mid-Tier) is going to be, then I want to know who was doing all this buying in front of that news……
If that is not what is causing this, then I guess people are just really excited about their gold pilot plant being able to treat selenium.
Very good points from all.
The government has always jiggered the numbers to fit their agenda. Unfortunately quality of growth has been sacrificed for quantity of growth.
For example in 1991 when the GNP turned into the GDP.
The link is to an article from the Atlantic Monthly,1995 titled “If GDP is up,Why is America down?” The article is as relevant today as it was in 1995.
http://www.theatlantic.com/past/politics/ecbig/gdp.htm
Yesterday RT reported that in a Chinese boarder city with Russia, China is accepting Rubble for retail purchases, sounded like they were eliminating the U.S. dollar there as well.
Doc, Thanks. Great respect for your knowledge. you are Genius!!!. Do you offer any service where you recommend stock like XON for 15 years keep adding and hold?
Thank you
Doc:
Good stuff. Do you have any thoughts on lithium? Stuff I read says global demand will double within 5 years (batteries, electric cars etc.) and that the U.S. imports 80% of their lithium.
Very interesting close. Uptick in price of miner at the very last minute for today and yesterday. Could this be panic shorting; that is, not wanting to be in GDXJ, JNUG, etc. overnight?
Brian
Also, can we expect a positive follow-through day getting close to Doc’s 1130?
Yes I saw that Brian. Let me ask you then, would you want to be in JDST overnight?
Are you personally expecting a pullback day tomorrow in Gold, or the surge to $1130?
I am clueless on the daily and hourly moves. I tried to trade JNUG/JDST on a daily basis but failed miserably.
I am one of those crazy people that uses JNUG for an extended period of time (days, weeks) as a way to ride the waves of an upward trend. Worked great in early 2015 (Almost a 100% return). I’m hoping we get to at least 1130 and I should have a 50% on some of my shares bought around $7.50.
Brian
Thanks for the response Brian. Well best of luck to you. I also have held bot JNUG and JDST for extended periods of time (weeks instead of days) when I wanted to play a longer range trend. People get so freaked out about decay in holding them, that they miss the point that you can wait out a loss or ride a gain and still be absolutely fine.
Question: when you made almost a 100% return earlier this year by holding, were ya real worried about decay? 🙂 😉 [great job by the way!!]
If you are in at $7.50 now, you should do great if Gold has a little more left to this rally. I sold my JNUG today at $9.92 (a little too early as it ran higher), but I was worried it may reverse in the last 10 minutes of trading.
Good luck to you Brian, and may your investing bring you great prosperity.
… and it is reversing in Hong Kong, so your sell before close was probably the right trade
Now the Hong Kong reversal has reversed and Gold is back up to 1110, so you never know…….
Gold has remained flat-lined around $1110 since the dip down/reverse up in Hong Kong, so it looks like we’ll have to wait for the pre-market actions to see if we get an unloading of contracts in thin trading forcing Gold down, or a spike up squeeze in Gold as shorts continue to cover. We can’t tread water forever……
Gold is up making recent highs at $1116.40, so it looks like the move is to the upside.
Gold got as high as $1118.90, then has dipped down and is slowly climbing again at $1117.10. In retrospect, I should have held onto JNUG, but I dislike holding it over-night typically. Should be a rocking day in the PMs though if this trend can continue or even just sustain at these levels.
From Stewart Thomson article on 321Gold:
“That’s the daily GDXJ chart. I think that a three day close above $21 will send this key ETF to the $27 area, and many individual stocks could see much bigger price action.”
http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15aug/2015aug11gdxj1.png
“Uptick in price of the ETF miners (GDXJ, JNUG)”
If Gold hang onto these overnight highs, then yes, we’ll see a nice uptick in GDXJ and JNUG.
I just picked up some Lake Shore Gold and Coeur Mining in the premarkets to see if don’t still have a little pop left in the PM miners.
I sold both positions into the strength today to allocate the profits elsewhere, but both were up nicely on the day.
JNUG is up about 16% today so you should have done very well Brian. Congrats!
DOC
Do you see the ADX/Weekly on GOLD?
Quite the divergence and then snapback to the mean,
with a very high strength indicator.
Do you see this pattern often on the weekly charts? I’m just a novice.
Brian
Brian, I see it often. What to focus on are the 2 directional lines, green (UP) and red (down)—-the red is now pointing down and the green is pointing up and they will probably intersect in 2 weeks —–when you see a pattern like this it’s rare for them to diverge but much more common for them to intersect. It sends a message that you’re probably on the right side of the trade on the long or bullish side. However, the black line which is the strength of the trade is not yet showing considerable strength and if it continues laterally or even starts trading down, your rally is probably coming to an end.
Good advice on using the ADX Doc Charley.
Great. Makes sense, Doc. Still lots to learn, here.
I just checked a chart and the Japanese Yen is down about 43% against the Chinese Yuan in the last 4 years and actually it is down nearly 40% in the last 3 years!
The Chinese have made a first shot across the bows. it will be interesting to see what happens to the Japan Nikkei 225 stock index tonight.
Competitive devaluation is toxic. But as an export country, it is hard to avoid. So far all major exporting currencies have devalued against the dollar. Yuan is the new Comer. US has consolidated as an importing country or dump ground of world products. This will accelerate the exile of US industry which Obama has claimed to reverse.
For China, the negative effect is inflation. It is due to that import are more expensive and more products are shipped outside
I thought that RIG held up very well today despite the fall in the price of the oil and that there is still a sizeable chunk of shares shorted.
Bob, currently, I’m long RIG until it looks technically like it wants to roll over. Not investment advice.
I appreciate that Doc. I am looking to build a small position and am keeping a close eye on it re the oil price.
This is looking more and more like late 1928 / early 1929. When the German World War I debt was looked at again at the Young Conference in early 1929, the debt was set at about $30bn (which was real money then – equivalent to 1 trillion+ today) payable over about 58 years and Germany was already in recession. Even so they had to raise interest rates a point to 7.5% to stop capital (gold) fleeing the country. Deflation was showing up in all sorts of places, commodities were in free fall and the US stock markets were still soaring. The came the Dow crash after the high of 381 on 3 September 1929 (10 years to the day before the start of World War II).
Germany’s war debts were never paid of course. The French were furious.
Sound familiar? Today, Greece’s and the other peripheral nations’ debts will never paid off and ironically Germany is furious.
Watch out for fireworks when the Greek deal goes through (perhaps) this 20 August. More amateur dramatics to come, I think.
Once the tsunami of the 2008 GFC passed, the Fed maintained ZIRP and QE explicitly to create a wealth effect in the economy by elevating asset prices. They were successful probably beyond their intentions in elevating asset prices – as US bond yields are at 200 year and the US stock market is at valuation levels almost guaranteed to produce negative 10 year returns according to reliable historical data. The Bernanke/Yellen stock bull market has been stoked by leverage, as margin debt for the purchase of stocks is now at the highest level in history both on an absolute and relative basis. If Doc is correct and the stock market trend changes from up to down, it is almost a given that margin calls will turn the decline disorderly in very short order. Look at what happened to China’s overleveraged overvalued market in a matter of weeks earlier this summer. What worries me is that the policy involvement by Chinese authorities of halting trading in well over half of their stocks as well as making short selling a criminal activity could well become a new page in the Fed’s playbook. On top of that, if the desired wealth effect created by the Fed vanishes along with high stock market valuations, then what is the Fed going to do to revive consumer sentiment in the overall economy? If public perception of the Fed changes to that of Dorothy towards the Wizard of Oz when she learned the truth, I am afraid we are in for some rough sledding. Of course this sort of environment should strongly revive the investment appeal of precious metals but we should be careful what we wish for.
This may be the most extreme bullish chart sentiment I’ve seen for the S&P where the general investing marketplace has gotten overboard likening the S&P to T-Rex. However, what I see are the Fib retracement levels that T-Rex can fall to in the next 2 months.
_____________________________________________________________
The S&P 500, Jurassic Park and Greece Walk Into A Bar…
http://stefancheplick.tumblr.com/post/110723174053/the-sp-500-jurassic-park-and-greece-walk-into-a
I think the general marketplace is about to get a September Surprise, along with Greece possibly not being as dramatic as they expect. This marketplace never ceases to amaze.
I KIND OF LIKE……………….MR T…..with the gold necklaces
The following article from Jay Taylor is very interesting and worth the read.
___________________________________________________________________
Dr. McHugh’s Work Says, “This is it!”
Friday August 07, 2015 – Jay Taylor
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-08-07/Dr-McHugh-s-Work-Says-This-is-it.html
Shad ~ Fantastic article. One of the most coherent reads, involving Elliot Wave Theory, I have read in a very long time. ~ Brian
Yes, Elliot Wave can get murky and artsy-fartsy, but that analysis from Dr. McHugh seemed fairly straight-forward, and the article was well written by our friend Jay Taylor.
Here is a video of Jay Taylor interviewing Dr. McHugh last week. Good stuff.
Robert McHugh The Next Great Bear Market Has Begun
Published on Aug 5, 2015
“Robert McHugh shares from his wave analysis why he believes the top is in and the great Bear market has started that is worse than the “Great Depression.”
It’s a bit of an extreme view on the severity of the correction in the general markets, but it is enough of a confirmation that something large is coming as it relates to a haircut in the general markets.
Good one Shad.
I read this few days ago and I thought that wa a good count …
I believe China asked for inclusion in the SDR basket while believing it would not happen. The China devaluation of the yuan is the first shot …
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38394/gold-and-mining-stocks-bottom-is-imminent
Another good Dr McHugh article with great charting. Thanks for posting that article Gabriel and agree that Chinese devaluation of the yuan has put things into motion.
Silver Standard Acquires Valmy Property at Marigold (from Newmont Mining)
VANCOUVER, Aug. 11, 2015
Silver Wheaton: Record Silver Equivalent Production and Sales Volume During the Second Quarter of 2015
VANCOUVER, Aug. 11, 2015
Tahoe Resources Reports Strong Cash Flow In Q2
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug. 11, 2015
Batero Gold Corp. Commences Offer to Acquire CB Gold Inc.
TORONTO, ONTARIO and VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLOMBIA–(Marketwired – Aug. 11, 2015)
Alexco Reports Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Aug. 11, 2015)
Gold defying gravity as it bounces back above $1,100/oz
Lawrie Williams | 11 August 2015
“Despite the 1.9% Chinese yuan devaluation, the gold price has risen sharply today. Is this the start of a new bull market or just another dead cat bounce?”
http://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/gold-defying-gravity-as-it-bounces-back-above-1100oz/
Glencore leads mining slump As metals tumble on Yuan Devaluation.
Javier Blas and Eddie van der Walt, Bloomberg | 11 August 2015
http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/glencore-leads-mining-slump/
Japan restarts reactor after break due to Fukushima
MARI YAMAGUCHI and ELAINE KURTENBACH,
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/japan-restarts-reactor-break-due-fukushima-014156596.html
Japan committed to nuclear power despite Fukushima fiasco
ELAINE KURTENBACH and MARI YAMAGUCHI,Associated Press
It should be an interesting rest of the week in Uranium based on this news.
I picked up some extra shares of Denison and Uranium Resources in the pre-markets before this news sets in. Luckily I added more Ur-Energy and Uranium Energy Corp a few days back. I’m going to wait until the markets open on Energy Fuels and Cameco as they have too big of an arbitrage in the pre-markets.
XON……………what a difference a day makes…………..down big on quarterly loses.
$70 to 49………….ouch…………………………………stepped on my claw
Oh, I do not own……..not trading advice…………………………………..ccf
author Bill Holter on jsmineset Aug 12 On Yuan devaluation..
On August 12, 2015 at 1:55 am,
gabriel says:
Good one Shad.
I read this few days ago and I thought that wa a good count …
“I believe China asked for inclusion in the SDR basket while believing it would not happen. The China devaluation of the yuan is the first shot …”
ALSO,,,,,while at jsmineset ……….CHECK OUT BILL’S form letter, that you can send to your board of directors …….to withhold product from market , in an attempt to break the NAKED SHORTS AT COMEX.
Forget this Agatha …
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38394/gold-and-mining-stocks-bottom-is-imminent
GREAT INFO……..thanks…………………….calling for $1425 yr end……….claw
FFM: Great idea for the mining companies who are already on the ropes. Stop selling your product and reduce your income to zero so you can go out of business faster to break “naked shorts” that don’t exist.
Whose team is Sinclair pitching for?
Good points Bob M.
you can not keep selling a product at a loss……..business 101
THESE dummies should have done this four years ago………….
Yes, if the whole industry or even a large enough group of companies in the sector witheld reserves it would work, but it is the same argument for all the OPEC countries to cut production in the Oil sector. It sounds good, but even operating at a wash or small loss is better than curbing production, laying off people, idling equipment, and losing market-share ( so most companies don’t have the gonads to do it).
Sometimes it is good to close down for a while………..
1. wear and tear on equipment, and replacing is expensive.
2.labor can sometimes get tired of to much work, and does not work to full capabilities, and causes increase in the cost of labor., or they become un
appreciative of having employment or they may just enjoy the time off………….ootb
If it cost you more to shut a mine down than to keep producing, yes, you can produce at a loss. You don’t want a 5 or 10% loss, you want a 110% loss.
Do the math.
I want management of mining companies to be good at one thing and that is not speculating on the price of their commodity. If they know how to mine, that’s good enough for me.
Speculating, or manipulation of price would be a better terminology………and I think this is the REAL ISSUE. Management would do well to get organized , than live in a dream world. Do we have geologist or business individual running these operations.
Long term planning would tell you that these plant managers have not done any long term planning, only, management by disinformation.
The strong will survive BOB….
BOB…..I KNOW we have been over the NAKED SHORTS…..
There are plenty of companies that should not be listed, and need to bite the dust,…jmho
OR, there are a few who need to correct the misbehavior at the COMEX., …..OOTB
Agreed. The walking dead, need to just get it over with already.
Restricting supply would only really work (like a well executed boycott) if many companies restricted supply all the same time. This strategy would likely be the death nail if a smaller producer did it as a rogue gesture though.
There is a 53 year supply of gold above ground at current demand. Tell me exactly how long it will take to show up in the price of gold if every single gold company in the world shut down tomorrow.
53 year supply……then do we have and OVER SUPPLY……Then long term planning and running a business at a loss, for how long……..before , you have to shut the doors at a 10% loss.
I am glad you have pointed out the OVER SUPPLY ISSUE. thanks
I am just passing along information, as you would say BOB…..DO YOUR OWN DD……
Since we have a 53 YEAR SUPPLY……….that would bring me back around to the STRONG WILL SURVIVE…..the weak hand will simple expire.
Comex leverage has reached 124:1. Are you sure all the other 123 times metal exist in the hand of shorts? If they do not have or do not have guaranteed supply when they need to deliver, it is naked short. Just like naked shorting stock without borrowing it first. Otherwise you have to redefine naked shorting. In the future market, naked short is allowed. You don’t have to store the shorted amount in COMEX vaults, do you?
I Think there is a lot of Misrepresentation …..and a NAKED SHORT might be one of them, but, Bob is say……….You can not have a naked short in commodities, but, I think there is a SHORTAGE……..as KYLE BASS said , he is taking DELIVERY .
say to saying
There is no such thing as naked shorting in commodities. First of all it’s a zero sum game. So if someone dumps 10 contracts of fridgets short today, they have to buy 10 contacts of fridgets before the contact expires so actually shorting anything has no long term effect because it will be offset by the later purchase
And all contacts long or short can be covered with the required margin. There isn’t a single commodity text ever written that uses the term “naked short” because it doesn’t exist as a concept. A short contract is covered with no margin if the short owns registered fridgets and if he doesn’t he is required to put up the published margins. There are no naked short and there are no risk free shorts or longs.
thanks for going over “NAKED SHORTS” again……..I am keeping that in mind as we go forward.
BOB , while WE have your attention…………
WHAT do you think of KYLE BASS taking deliver of $1bill in gold for his hedge fund, thanks……………………………………………………….ootb….ccf….ffm
I know Kyle Bass and he’s a very bright guy. He has it in his hot little hands just like I do.
AND so do I………………..
BTW………..thanks for the reply……..I really appreciate your information……OOTB
Bob M.- according to sinclair- MeEwen did this yrs ago at goldcorp…
good point Agatha……………
Agatha:
The way Al’s software works it’s hard to keep track of threads. McEwen did what according to Sinclair?
Here is a company that has been quietly having a great deal of success in the precious metals mining space to little fanfare:
————————————————————————————–
SIERRA METALS PRODUCES RECORD 3.1 MILLION SILVER EQUIVALENT OUNCES IN Q2-2015
Toronto, ON – August 12, 2015
http://sierrametals.com/investors/news_releases/index.php?&content_id=246
Hi Doc,
you were 100% correct about XON. wow! great call.
what you think now? Is this a candidate like apple , googl to keep adding every big dip for 10-15 years? Or stay away for few months.
Thanks