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These conventional markets are looking really ugly

August 21, 2015

How much further down can the markets continue? Doc says things are looking bad and there is no denying that.

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Discussion
80 Comments
    Aug 21, 2015 21:26 AM

    You know Doc, one thing I am noting today is that there is sufficient upside room on the 30 year bond before we get any major resistance to allow an assumption it keeps rising next week and suggesting stocks keep falling until mid week.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:33 AM

    And the SUPPER COMMUNIST CORRUPTS EURO is GOWING UP ! Fiat FIRE ! fihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7lMj-3l6fc

    Aug 21, 2015 21:36 AM

    GOT to sell the SHEEPLE something………….circus and clowns…………

      Aug 21, 2015 21:37 AM

      ha,ha, funny comment on Gartman……..DOC………………

      Aug 21, 2015 21:38 AM

      DOLLAR…….yuan……and the dong…………currency wars are heating up…..

      Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

      “Let them eat cake”

    Aug 21, 2015 21:41 AM

    DOW looking for 14000……..then 9,000

      Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

      You really think that 9K is possible?

        Aug 21, 2015 21:58 PM

        50% retracement off 18,000 which extended to far…….and anything is possible.

          Aug 21, 2015 21:59 PM

          but, I am not expecting it to go down that low………but, things would really be UGLY

    Aug 21, 2015 21:42 AM

    Take what Gary says and what Doc says, mix the two opinions, and you have a pretty good idea what the markets are gonna do.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

      Agreed, Jason!

      Aug 21, 2015 21:07 PM

      Nice.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:35 PM

      I just separate them into my Right and Left brain and let my corpus callosum figure out the details.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:42 PM

        Smart thinking.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:48 AM

    Hi Doc,

    XON has been a curious one today – currently up 6% with its ‘child’ ZIOP up about 5.5%.

    I understand that there has been a seconadry XON offering today and I notice on some of the messageboards that people are speculating that the underwriters are trying to push the stock price up to lure people in.

    Surely this will now fall into the 30s as the general market fall – or am I missing something fundamental?

    Aug 21, 2015 21:48 AM

    Watch Bernie Sanders tell Alan Greenspan, in 2003, that Americans are not living the way that Mr. Greenspan imagines they are.
    Then just 5 years later Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, admits that there is a flaw in his ideology.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJaW32ZTyKE

    Are we gone hear Janet talking about QE in the next months ?

    PF
    Aug 21, 2015 21:04 PM

    Doc, what you said about Dennis Gartman is wrong! He has been absolutely correct in his bearishness on gold in US dollar terms, and his bullishness on gold in Yen and Euro terms.

      CFS
      Aug 21, 2015 21:17 PM

      Except prior to 2011, when Gartmen was wrong for years.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:15 PM

    Doc, You say “There are no easy answers”
    But, of course, there is a simple answer: Dump the stupid socialism and Keynes, proven-wrong theory.

    You want Growth, then lose the drag on the economy of excessive taxation.

    You want Inflation, then keep on printing your fiat; you will get inflation.

    You want a systemic collapse? Slow or fast? Then chose Socialistic overspending; the more you overspend the faster the collapse will come.

    Economics ain’t that complex. Sure it has many interwoven parts, because no economy is isolated from the rest of the world anymore.
    But the basics are still pretty simple:
    You want less of something, then tax it or regulate it to death.
    You want more of something; reduce the regulations or taxation.
    Things have not changed in thousands of years.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:18 PM

      KISS, huh Professor!

        CFS
        Aug 21, 2015 21:24 PM

        I try not to over-estimate the intelligence of politicians, and not to under-estimate their corruption. Yet, I fail, so often.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:30 PM

      CFS, you should be running the economics dept. at Harvard.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:24 PM

    I agree Doc, I am shorting the S&P.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:32 PM

    This is going to get more scary.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:41 PM

      Doc, last week when TGD was @.25 you warned me that it could bottom @.20. I watched it go up to .32 this morning and got scared I would miss its surge, so when it fell to .30 I bought it. I’m sure you are right and when it falls to .20 I’ll load up the truck.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:53 PM

        BB; the fat lady hasn’t sung yet. The monthly chart has not turned for TGD yet and looks like a continuation pattern and that means the odds are good for lower prices yet. I’m not yet impressed by this gold move which we most of us knew was coming. The PM stocks did not perform well today considering the move higher by gold.

          Aug 22, 2015 22:46 PM

          Doc, I don’t know what came over me. I had decided to wait for TGD to go lower, but watching it go from .25 to .32 was more than I could stand, and when it dropped to .30 I could not control myself. If Gary is right about gold going to 1250 next month then I can probably sell the TGD for .40 and buy it back later. Do you follow NSRPF? What do you think of it?

      Aug 21, 2015 21:47 PM

      Maybe QE is coming. At least no rate hike.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:50 PM

        DOW is the new Pet Rock !

      Aug 21, 2015 21:29 PM

      By scary do you mean exciting?

    Aug 21, 2015 21:47 PM

    Day are working ferry hard to make THE US population crazy fore KING OF KING’S ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80Sy_SBnwZU

    Aug 21, 2015 21:52 PM

    On Monday watch the markets put in a dead cat bounce, enough to fool the bargain hunters.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:11 PM

      Remember, this bull market has survived some tremendous shocks, perhaps it is destined for a longer life, I would wait for Tuesday to come and go before placing my bets, terrible Tuesday could be the real storm and if it comes and goes without too much trouble we could see a reprieve, just saying!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:00 PM

    Dow down 475 now to 16,515.10.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:09 PM

      NOT looking good for the weekend worriers………

      Aug 21, 2015 21:27 PM

      Whoa…that was an ugly close.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:08 PM

      Yikes!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:21 PM

    Al, why is Doc now called Charley now? I am all behind.

    There is technical divergence now between Doc and Gary. Doc is moving down and Gary is moving up in forecasts. This you could name the Al theory (instead of the Dow theory).

      Aug 22, 2015 22:27 AM

      That is what all of his friends back in the mid West call him.

        Aug 22, 2015 22:35 AM

        Cheers Al! I am now in the know!

          Aug 22, 2015 22:48 AM

          Regarding?

            Aug 23, 2015 23:05 PM

            Regarding why Doc is called Charlie.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:30 PM

    I don’t think Gary said a bubble begins in Oct…. he said a crash or a low….
    then he said a blow off S&P bubble in 2016-17… didn’t he??

    Aug 21, 2015 21:31 PM

    Nice call on the S&P Short Al!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:42 PM

    with all due respect doc– the HUI dropped only 3.5 pts on a more than 500 drop in the Dow
    imo that aint bad at all…… in fact…..

      Aug 21, 2015 21:57 PM

      Agatha, that’s not bad however this is just a tradable rally IMO and we have a lot of work yet to go on the PMs and the stocks. 2016 looks like a better year for the PMs.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:16 PM

        DOC
        Is there a gold or GDX(J) price where you would reconsider or change your predictions for a final low in gold in 2016?

        For example, if gold broke above $1300 and then held for resistance, would you change your outlook?

    Aug 21, 2015 21:08 PM

    Stanley Druckenmiller, the famed hedge fund manager, just placed more than $323 million of his own money into a gold ETF, at a time when sentiment toward the yellow metal is in the basement.
    Between 1986 and 2010, the year he closed his fund to investors, Druckenmiller consistently delivered 30 percent on an average annual basis.

    And now he’s making a call on gold. The $323-million investment is currently the single largest position in Druckenmiller’s family fund. It’s twice as large, in fact, as its second-largest position, Facebook, and amounts to 20 percent of total fund holdings.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:12 PM

      I caught the a couple days ago. He may not have called the absolute bottom in gold, but he knows a trend hen he sees one.

      Aug 22, 2015 22:21 AM

      BigBill, do you have a source?

    Aug 21, 2015 21:30 PM

    Doc:
    Really enjoyed your cautious comments today. Even think I noticed a level of concern, more than any time in your comments over the past 60 days. Please continue to give us your honest thoughts. They’re certainly appreciated.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:59 PM

      Silver, you’re welcome. We’re entering a very volatile period where gold will hold it own and comparatively do better then the conventional markets.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:51 PM

      Agreed. Good thoughts today Doc. I tend to agree with you that there is maybe another week or two left in the PMs bounce. There is likely some upside left, but I won’t be surprised to see it turn and start heading back down, especially if it hit that 100 week MA Gary discussed. Regardless unless we break out of the wedge on the monthly charts in a major way, then I think we grind down in gold by mid September.

      This next month or two is going to get to crazy in the general stock indexes, commodities, currencies, and bonds. There should be many sudden changes in directions, and it should be quite volatile with big swings each day = opportunities & risk.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:01 PM

        PS. – Doc as you know, I am in complete agreement with you on the VIX, and I took profits today in UVXY, and if the markets snap back at the beginning of next week then I’m going back in.

        ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (VIXY) -NYSEArca  Watchlist
        13.76 Up 1.96(16.61%) Aug 21, 4:44PM EDT
        After Hours : 13.65 Down 0.11 (0.80%) Aug 21, 6:15PM EDT

        ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)
        42.22 +10.86(+34.63%) NYSEArca – As of 4:45PM EDT
        After Hours: 41.38 Down -0.84 (1.99%) 7:59PM EDT

    Aug 21, 2015 21:44 PM

    Any idea technicians, Should we get a relieve rally on Monday?

      Aug 21, 2015 21:53 PM

      If we do, it will probably happen after further downside unless news or the PPT intervenes.
      Imagine the sell orders that will get placed by people getting from work today to see that the Dow has finished the week down over 1,000 points.

      It’s been a very long time since the picture has looked this bad for stocks.
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31256454701

        Aug 22, 2015 22:13 AM

        Matthew,

        Don’t you agree that one day does not tell the entire tale?

        In this case; however, given the lack of fundamentals in the mkts; and the lack of freedom; and, the trend that has been going on for awhile yesterday may very well be an exception to that rule.

          Aug 22, 2015 22:11 AM

          One day, Al? The technical picture has been deteriorating for a lot more than one day!

            Aug 22, 2015 22:11 AM

            I realize that Matthew, I meant one very dramatic day!

            Aug 22, 2015 22:18 AM

            One bad day that happened to end the worst week since 2011. Plenty has changed and stock could get even more expensive if “E” collapses more than “P” -and it just might.

            Aug 22, 2015 22:50 AM

            Eventually, if history again repeats itself, it will. But, not until we get through this one.

            Aug 22, 2015 22:01 AM

            Just to be clear, I’m talking more expensive in terms of PE multiple NOT price. Price is heading lower but if PEs rise due to plunging “Es” then stocks will be more expensive despite falling in price.

            Aug 22, 2015 22:13 AM

            I figured

            Aug 22, 2015 22:17 AM

            Thanks for the chart, Matthew!

    Aug 22, 2015 22:13 AM

    I think that anything based on lies and fairy tales is going to turn seriously UGLY when there is a serious reality check and people are forced to accept the truth. Current gold and silver prices point to a extreme hyper deflation for everything else and it has been that way for almost a century and may be longer. Permitting the metals to go to a proper un leveraged exchange rate is the poison pill for the global financial system because it challenges the official fairy tale the world financial system is based on.

      Aug 22, 2015 22:05 AM

      Interesting comment Steven.

    Aug 22, 2015 22:07 AM

    Jim Pulvava is saying Buy The Dip this weekend.

    I just found a chart that has almost exactly what Gary Savage is looking for:
    http://goldtadise.com/?p=350238

    Correction to 1550 then move up to 3400.

    As for me, I have no idea!

      Aug 24, 2015 24:49 AM

      Good chart.