Will this market continue to comeback and why did gold’s rally stall?
Doc ha some comments on the direction he is looking for the conventional markets to take. We agree that we are in a bear market but see it playing out in slightly different ways. As for gold is the rally over?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Need someone to focus on oil
Coming up in the Market Wrap in about an hour Tony.
IS THERE A REAL MARKET, with HFT allowed?
SHAME on SEC regulators.
A middle finger to the CRIMEX non-regulators.
cfs….No such thing as a real ..( HONEST ) market…..The only real people making money in these markets are those who control them.
Thanks Al
lol I’d shelve oil talk until January.
Jason: the technicals indicate the odds of that are very good at this time.
RICHARD…..The technical don’t count, “THEY” who control the value of the markets can turn them around on a dime…..If they so wish.
Jason, I sold my UWTI today at $.82 and used this rally off $38 as an escape hatch. After much thought yesterday and pouring over articles from energy experts, I think even $38 may fall to lower prices. Many are calling for $32-$33 as the bottom. I see key support from 2009 at the $33.55 trough.
___________________________________________________
On August 24, 2015 at 10:30 pm,
Shad says:
I like the idea of Oil building a technical base around $38-$39 and then moving higher gradually, and it is in oversold territory here. Unfortunately, it is looking more realistic that Oil will get a minimal bounce on Tues maybe Wed, and then head even lower to the mid to low $30s before finding bottom.
My thought is that the the $38 level did just hold as support, and oil is currently priced at $39.05 in overseas trading, so it may be bouncing to $40+, before turning back down lower. I was thinking calls for $32-$33 sounded a bit extreme and really thought the $38 area would be support (and maybe $35). However, there were so many energy pundits that came out of the woodwork today expecting $32-$33 oil, that is has me re-evaluating my thesis of where Oil should bottom. This is commodity to watch because it’s getting darn close to a bottom.
Here’s a chart with that $33.55 trough from 2009 as a potential bottom.(?)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p51446861804
Kind of like “callibration”? Heck, he is a very smart physician. Even I don’t understand a lot of his words. I guess that I am not very bright!
“… it’s clear that the operators of the great gold-market price-suppression scheme have been doing a lousy job and deserve to be fired for poor performance.”
http://biiwii.com/wordpress/2015/08/25/gold-manipulators-should-be-fired/
I totally agree with DOC here….I think we are in a bear market. That FACT is the US is growing some what and Corp profits are good but there was some hot air in the markets…. No Crash just and adjustment.
It looks rosy next the the rest of countries. Emerging economies are in big doo doo…Canada Pooh Pooh to.
No boom for gold….NEM looks terrible. ASR.TO had a major breakout then retrenched..Its one of the stronger companies…
FWIW… re: gold’s performance yday.
During the Oct. 1987 equity crash, gold moved up for 1 day. And that was it.
Best to all & good luck investing trading.
LPG
Hi LPG,
Also FWIW…
The Dow lost about 43% versus gold from its August ’87 high to its October ’87 low. The briefness of such a windfall makes sense when you consider that the Dow was in the first third of a secular bull market and gold was in the first third of a secular bear market.
It also makes sense when you consider that, at the crash low, the Dow was historically cheap and worth less than 3.5 ounces of gold. Who knew that just 12 years later, it would be worth almost 45 ounces?
Interestingly, when gold peaked in 2011, the Dow-Gold ratio was right where it was at the pre-crash 1987 high.
The Dow is currently worth about 14 ounces – which is historically expensive at well over twice the average since the Dow began 17 Shemitahs ago.
Matthew
You JUST wasted 2 minutes and 45 seconds of my life as I tried to find out if your, indeed, the Dow is 17×7 years old. Of course it is (26May1896).
Let’s see how the 17th Shemitah unravels the financial and agricultural world, eh?
“All debts, except those of foreigners, were to be remitted”
Hopefully I will actually own my 2015 VW TDI, real soon ! ! !
But carrots will be REALLY expensive …
You say Shemitah
And I say Shmita
Ohhhh …..Lets call
The whole thing off
Hello BRIAN….Are you allowed to use the word..SHEMITAH..( I belive to be a Jewish word )…After what happened over the weekend & whats been said since ?…….
Just asking.
funny Irish. Also funny Brian about cross checking the 17 Shemitah’s back.
You’re right Tony. I should have said 6 score minus one year ago…
Brian -Sorry about the lost 2.75 minutes.
The September Short and then further damage into October. Been waiting on that scenario all year. Good thoughts Doc as per usual, and I agreed with you in July and in early August that this August counter-trend move would only be a few weeks and would be muted. I was confused by some who got a little overly-enthusiastic and suddenly proclaimed the bottom was in. I still don’t believe that $1076 was the Major bottom, and I believe that after we get this pullback in Gold over with that we’ll run a bit higher with resistance at $1800, $1200, and $1224. Then I expect the long wave down in Gold to put in the Major bottom on that leg down. This keeps us in that falling wedge pattern that we’ve all been following, and this seems like the most likely probability.
Yes, Don Corleone and I have had a very nice discussion on the potential path for Gold today on Gary’s Editorial and I invite anyone else to chime in and join the discussion. Good luck to all in their investing!
I’ll just re-post the discussion here for reference so you don’t have toggle threads.
___________________________________________________________________________
On August 25, 2015 at 9:17 am,
Shad says:
These kinds of volatile markets are exactly why I don’t advise buying and “holding” because you may get you clock cleaned on these pullbacks. I just don’t see the point to holding if you know an asset is going down further.
Example: I bought JNUG around $11.36 on Friday and sold it at $11.61. (Not much of a profit, but I didn’t want to hold it over the weekend). Thank goodness I didn’t hold it into Monday and today’s sell off! I bought some JNUG back this morning at $7.77 (the same basic place it was at on Aug 4-6). This is still a very risky trade here, but not nearly as risky as holding on from $11.61 to $7.77 as that would have been a 33% loss just for “holding tight.”
Another point: If Big Al would have held his short position today, he would have watched his gains erased. Now the trick will be going in and pulling the trigger again before the next leg down. Rinse and repeat. 😉
On August 25, 2015 at 9:22 am,
don corleone says:
I am watching volatility very closely shad but it is still early to take any position.The third leg down is the best moment for taking position.Not there yet.Maybe next october/november.
On August 25, 2015 at 9:42 am,
Shad says:
Yeah, I was just taking a JNUG position for a day trade, because it got so knocked down yesterday and again this morning, that there may be a bit of a bounce up today. Then I’m out and waiting for gold to pull back further.
Don Corleone, I appreciate your insights, as we expected Gold to top out this week (just like Doc did), and everyone else said to hold on tight for the big rise up. I knew we’d get a slight pullback soon, and not to hold tight, and that was my point.
Again, I do think we’ll get a very nice surge in gold up to $1180 and then possibly $1224, but I don’t believe July 24th at $1076 or $1071 was the Major bottom. We are going to be up nicely in Wave 4, but we still have that final larger Wave 5 down later this year, which corresponds with the falling wedge pattern that Doc, Jordan Roy-Byrne, and Gary Wagner have all noted the last few months. That will be the major bottom and the time to “hold tight”.
On August 25, 2015 at 9:51 am,
don corleone says:
Shad I doubt if gold will exceed 1200 on the next bounce.The leg up from the 1076 has the looks of an impulsive leg which means that currently gold is correcting for another leg up.shad always remember to use logarithmic charts when charting especially on long term charts.Bear that in mind because you will get off target on linear charts.
On August 25, 2015 at 9:59 am,
Shad says:
Hmmm that is a very interesting point. I normally shun the logarithmic charts because I like an even spacing on the chart of the linear, but you really have me thinking here.
Yes, I concur that this is corrective move down before the next leg up. Until gold dips, reverses back up, and takes out $1180 then it’s a moot point, but $1200 will have a lot of congestion around that level. Gold could get deflected from the 1200 resistance and never make it to $1224, so that remains to be tested.
In the mid-term, once this overall leg up (Wave 4) is completed up to one of those resistance levels, then it will start the long (5 Wave leg) Wave 5 back down to put in the Major bottom around $1033-$1000 in my opinion.
On August 25, 2015 at 10:14 am,
don corleone says:
Thats right shad.That is the pattern that I am watching in my crystal ball 🙂
On August 25, 2015 at 10:17 am,
Shad says:
Ha! Good luck to you in your trading Don Corleone. I really appreciate your insights and technical feedback. Cheers!
On August 25, 2015 at 10:26 am,
don corleone says:
Thanks buddy and the best of luck to you too !
SHAD…….Please Please Please…..Stop repeating , I am piss5ed of reading the same comments over & over again…..Theres a good chap.
Irish – I reposted the comments that related to the audio that Big Al was discussing in the editorial today. I’d say that was fairly relevant.
I’ll repost a segment if I feel it is relevant to the discussion being had, if it is breaking news, if a similar discussion breaks out on the same topic, or if it was already worded well. Often I post on a board that is from a day back and already expired, and I will bring it forward to the current day’s discussion.
Anyway, some people say the same things every day about Greece, or China, or the manipulation, or the ever-going naked shorting debate, etc…etc…
I’ll post the way I feel it is most helpful, and you can deal with it and not tell me how to post……There’s a good chap.
If you really are pissed off and can’t scroll down for 1 second, then that sounds like a personal problem to me. Good luck with that and chasing rainbows.
See Don Colelone’s comments at 9:51am above.
I was trying to put those comments in the context of the discussion they were in without people having to toggle over to the other blog, and invited others to chime in and join the discussion in the spirit of being inclusive.
I didn’t mean complain that you had to read something a second time (that’s just terrible). BTW you didn’t have to read it again and could have just skipped over that segment. Geesh!
Hi Shad….I was just messing around with you.
OH & BTW I don’t chase rainbows……..Only UNICORNS………Pink ones, wink wink.
Hey Irish. Thanks, that is good to hear, as for some reason I was taking it at face value, that you were really pissed at the re-posted message.
There were several challenges both at work and in my personal life yesterday with management and life forcing me to do things I was not happy about, so I was already past my limit with people ordering me around. When I had a few spare moments and was posting in the spirit of being helpful, it honked me off already being in a tense state. I’ve just never understood why people can move on to the next post if they don’t like something, and people complain to one another all the time on this blog and really all blogs. Just move on people….
I apologize for the strong reaction, but I always do my best to post helpful content, and my intent was to get a discussion going around:
– where do people think the Run from July 24th (at $1076) would run to?
– What resistance levels are they watching on the upside?
– Has the August gold pop already fizzled out?
– Was July 24th the Major low, and end of the 4 year bear market, or just another Nov 2014 fake out?
– Does Gold have a destiny with testing the July 24th bottom ($1076 or $1071?)
(depending on which trading platform you use)
– What levels are people targeting as next support below that low? Will the next move down be a sudden fall or a gradual grinding down in the falling wedge pattern?
Cheers to you Irishtony, and I thought all this time you were chasing rainbows for a pot’ o gold (and silver), but incognito, you were really stalking the pink unicorns.
May you have a great rest of the week sir.
Doc,
I must be learning something. I find my self agreeing with just about everything you say. My track record is getting better. The only thing is, I think gold is going much lower than you do. But the timing is close to the same.
So uh.. I guess by November I’ll be proven wrong.. (-;
Chartster, keep practicing at your technicals and learning more. Develop the variables you’re comfortable with and after awhile you’ll see recurring patterns and get pretty comfortable into your techniques—-happy for you.
Doc, makes one laugh when the gold bugs are so quick to call a bear market in US equities while they are in denial that gold has been in a bear market for years!
said another way: These same experts who are calling for a major bear market in equities have been calling for pm’s bottoms for years!
Doc gold is being traded off $yen go ahead put up a chart of yen with gold running in the background, yen bottomed at 79.86 with the big pop Monday hitting 86 just as gold broke out off $1104 hitting $1169 resistance perfectly Monday as yen rolled over
Partly true but I was a bull on US equities and became cautious the last few months…I think its highly possible we are in for a bear now.
AND Gold is not in a bull that’s for sure. I JUST listened to Hoye and think he’s got great points.
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/08/equity-markets-beyond-central-bank-help/
Regarding the “bear” in the conventionals, I happen to agree with all of our contributors.
OJ; thanks—–the correlation is amazing.
It is Doc and it puts the whole gold is manipulated BS to bed, look back since July 2007, yens top and golds top and all the way up and down is in since, yen manipulated, lol
sorry is in sinc
There has been a strong correlation between the Yen and Gold for some time.
I’m comforted by the fact that I’m not the only one on this site who doesn’t have a clue on what is going on………………
No one else does either…We are just guessing with a bit of education.
Buy real estate and good levels you will live longer. Commercial is the best..
Bill:
Not sure about about commercial real estate. If small business continues to drop by the side with more exits than entries, who you gong to rent to in this day and age of fewer storefronts and more internet business?
Commercial industrial..Trades ect always need a home…
You have to get the right market and location….
I use to own a 40,000sq ft storage facility..A lot of junk people stored and they could even afford it….Nuts
Knowing a person’s limitations is a huge asset!
LOL AL
The more I know the more I realize its not near enough…
I’m more afraid then ever!!!
AL:
If that be the case then I’m swimming in assets but am not getting any wealthier !
“Knowing a person’s limitations is a huge asset ”
By that criterion, I should be multi-millionaire !
😉
funny.
Sooooooo BIG AL, when we gonna short the S&P again? I am waiting for $19.75 on SPXS before I think about getting back in. I held for 3 weeks last time. So if the OTHER DOC is right, I should buy back in soon.
Probably be a bit of a while.
So Doc, do you think this August is somewhat like September 1929 and September 2015 can be like late October 1929?
Silver, that would really be going out on a limb—-I hope not for the good of this country but it certainly is a possibility. The Dow Theory has been put in play by the big drop in the industrials and it’ll be interesting if the market now confirms the Dow Theory by moving lower as we go forwards.
Dead cat bounce over ???
good question.
ALL
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DO NOT take this lightly
Seven years of money printing smoke and mirrors will not just correct 10%
if the distortion is that great so will the adjustement
CORY WHERE,ARE,YOU COMING UP WITH THESE OPINIONS?
This market is closing like a cheap claimer trying to get to the finish line on one bad hoof
LOOK OUT BELOW TOMORROW!
James:
I agree with your market analysis and speaking of a cheap claimer with a bad hoof, my eldest just had to put down her 31 year old TB arena and cross country jumper and dressauge champion with a cracked coffin bone who had to retire from the track while in his early prime; son of Native Dancer and grandson of Northern Dancer and the nicest gelding ever, he will be missed.
This market was nothing but cheap money for seven years.
The crash is coming!
They could deny it, they could delay it but they can’t dodge it!
Money needs a home and its still cheap…The safest home is still the US…..Its growing albeit slowly..
China is a CRASH…
China will be a buy again soon enough. I am just trying to look for the silver lining in their current declines and it is getting obvious some bargains are appearing as the baby gets flushed with the bathwater (like in all major declines). So it can’t be all bad news.
Off message Goon cops rough up four star general.
Or again….Men falsely arrested in Missouri for being oath keepers….
Andrew I’m back
Glad to hear from you!
Thank you James.
Its interesting to me how we all see this market so differently. I am back on the bull side for equities although in the back of my mind I cannot help but be concerned that a return to the 18,000 level on the DOW in a months time more or less would potentially be posting a large double top. I guess we will just play it by ear and see what comes but meanwhile I don’t expect deeper lows than we have already seen for the near term.
On a separate note….the 30 year looks like a good short right now.
Are you thinking TBT is the play?
Sure, that’s fine. I was charting off TMV though but its all in a name I guess. I might be a little early here though…..or maybe I am crazy.
It’s actually a good time to revisit yields and bonds. I was looking at TLT and TBT earlier today as well, due to some comments that both Rick and Doc made. For a while earlier in the year I was trading both ETFs back and forth, but I had more of an investing premise and better sense of the direction at that point.
Things have become so wild (not just in the US but globally), that I am at a bit of a loss for which way the 30 year is headed. I’m not sure if foreign investors will flood to the perceived safety of the US markets, or if the fears that the US market is capsizing will win out.
I can relate to those comments Shad. There are definitely times I have had more certainty but this past week has kind of jumbled my process. That’s usually a good time to do absolutely nothing because it often means the market is in a state of change where the usual relationships start breaking down.
Maybe I’ll just take a break from the old laptop for a few days and get some fresh air and exercise. Its not like I will miss much either……there is always another trade.
I’m actually thinking it is time for a break as well, it was just so crazy last week and this week, that I may move some trades to dry powder and let things unravel a bit further. I am still watching a number of separate commodities for some sort of bottom, and I did well using volatility to short the markets. I don’t want to miss the next mother of all shorts, but I may just skim the highlights and spend more time in nature, with people, and spend less time in front of a computer monitor. Life’s calling….
Apparently according to the people that don’t post on the site we are just goofs……
Guess I’ll go goof around 🙂
For your information, my wife agrees with Chris that I am a goof. And here I was in my bubble thinking I was special! Ha ha Ha! Fortunately my wife has a bad foreign accent and when she say goof it sounds like Goove so I get a laugh out of it anyway.
Drives her nuts. She is being serious trying to push my buttons and I can’t keep a straight face.
China has some serious problems…I wouldn’t be to quick to pull the trigger..
They are mass manipulators of reporting numbers / economy / stock market…..
They threw everything they had to keep it together but still poohed the bed last night….There will be ripples for some time.
Not worried Bill. All in good time. There WILL eventually be a bottom. Just like the seasons, man. It is just a matter of being patient and waiting out the current tragedy…….and then its spring again.
I heard the talk in the last few days from china that government is planning to stop the intervention since it costs too much. Instead they are going to adopt a longer term plan nick named two bird policy. In which their are two points, remove indebtness of state owned enterprises and privatize them by shifting ownership to public and pension funds. The immediate measures are lower rates and allow pension funds to own stocks. That is what I heard.
There is an article on zero hedge as well
The other rumor is that leadership core has decided to stay away from financializing the economy. The focus will be back on manufacturing economy. So interfering on stock market which has very small impact on manufacturing economy does not help. I can see it happening since top leaders are mostly engineers by training. I am afraid one implication is to devalue the currency to out compete every one else.
Too bad but devaluations never work. Not when others respond. So that pointless exercise will only end up impoverishing the people themselves who end up losing buying power. A devaluation by nature is a shift in the division and makeup of wealth transfers both within an economy, Lawrence. For each winner there is always a loser and so forth. But the guy on the street usually pays the price unless he has the sense and knowledge to hedge the risk. Look at Argentina or Russia as examples of how falling currency values hurt the economy suffering the devaluation most.
I dont think China knows what they are doing at all.
I predicted that the intervention would blow up in their face.
Its a typical outcome from that type of monetary intervention.
I did mention to be very careful before their market blew up. Car sales have collapsed.
Real estate may ride beter but I would not bet on it.
I love my cash position after the big melt everywhere but not sure what to do at the moment. BEST!
FWIW
IDGAS
Word to Doc “equilibration”