Thanks. Definitely agree about NUGT and DUST. I’ve made some decent lunch money with them when buying at the extremes, but no major wins yet. I’m in NUGT toward the recent lows, but am not sure how long to hang on to see if we get the major upturn Gary believes is coming.

Banana republic definition is here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_republic

these countries usually have unstable government and often over thrown by army
These countries have large trade deficit
These countries rely on exporting raw materials
These countries have tiny rich minority and impovished mass

What is the similarity with China. It is almost the opposite.

Calling China banana republic is like JJ calls CCF a sheeple.

The hard floor is around 2000. But now government stopped IPO and issuance of new shares which is main tool Chinese government suppressed the market.

I remember an additional character of banana republic is a large foreign debt.

Yeah, I agree with you Lawrence, and I personally wasn’t calling China a Banana Republic. The video had an interesting section on the effects of the Chine markets in the last 1/3 so that is why I was posting it in response to their markets finding a floor.

I’m going to be watching the Chinese, Russian, Greek, and stock markets carefully for the remainder of the year for unique opportunities, but they’ve all been a bit squirrely lately.

@Lawrence……………. 🙂

This will not be commodity bullish, Avi, $11-$14 silver how about $7-$11 if China does devalue the Yuan aggressively as the BOJ will follow suit, don’t think its impossible, who would have thought looking around at the world today that 4+ years later silver would be sub $15, hmmmm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-02/what-if-china-devalues-8-bofa-warns-profound-consequences-commodities-financial-syst

China’s devaluation is going to put more pressure on the ECB and BOJ to devalue further which is not gold, silver, commodity bullish as the US$ climbs there are Trillions in US$ loans that will have hedgers and countries like Brazil in a lot of pain!

Yes the currency wars wage on, and commodities have continued to take it on the chin. I expect that these devaluing events by different currencies will reach a tipping point in the next 3-6 months.

Competitive devaluation is the best environment for PM. Please read currency war by Jim Richards or Hong Bing Song. US has to join the war if it does not want to lose all its industry and have a devastating trade deficit.

The question on my mind is whether Gold, Silver, Base Metals, Oil, and Soft Commodities have one last leg down into the bottoming of the CRB index, or if the recent lows in these sectors were the lows (as many here and elsewhere claim)?

I’m leaning towards one more leg down in most of them in the next few months, and that is where I’ll bottom fish in many commodity names. Of course, I’ll be watching RSI levels, Slow Stochastics, MACD crosses, prior peaks/troughs for support, and the 50 and 200 day EMAs for confirmation.

It just didn’t feel like the final washout in Gold/Silver, Oil, Base Metals, or Agricultural commodities the last few months, and I expected more “blood in the streets” and one last capitulation. My expectation is that these commodities will put in an intermediate top soon and turn down one more time, and that would likely coincide with dollar strength (likely from the other currencies being devalued).

I’m not a dollar bull (and 6 months out I’m very bearish), and I’ve seen people lay out convincing charts that look very bearish for the USD. However, some longer term charts conversely show where the USD could still have some strength to the upside left. It would likely catch people off-guard if other currencies devalued more and this strengthened the dollar.

In the very near term I’m not too bullish on the dollar and could see it coming down to $94 and this may give one last nudge to the commodities. Then I believe the USD could surprise people to the upside, and this is the point where it’s most likely we’d get the major bottom in commodities. At that point, (wherever that is), I’d expect it to be the longer term top in the USD, and then the longer decline from there. This would coincide with a longer term increase in commodities at that point (Q4 2015, or Q1 2016) – as Doc mentions.

I could concede there is good reasoning from people that claim this is stealth bull market starting in commodities, because many of them put in lower lows recently and have bounced, and the dollar has weakened some. However, those same folks claimed we were in a stealth bull in November and March, and I didn’t buy it then, and we weren’t. I mentioned those were counter-trend rallies, and they were.

I’ll admit that this move up in commodities feels a little different due to how many assets hit new lows in the last 2 months, and have shown some strength since then (and may for a little while longer). However, it is my position that this move is still a counter-trend move up, with one final leg down to go. If $1076 or $1072 in Gold was the low, and $37.78 was the low in Oil, then yes, the bull market has begun, but I could see both making one last low along with Dr Copper, and Silver later this year.

For now I’m short term bullish, mid term bearish, and longer term more bullish the commodities.

Upon thinking it over, I don’t believe the US dollar has to put in a new high if gets down to $93-$94 and then turns up. It could just strengthen for a period, but commodities may just continue to fall in that window of time. So, commodities could bottom during a period of time where the US dollar gets up to $97-$98 again (likely due to other currencies devaluing hard and possible jitters about a Fed rate hike pending).

Thanks for the charts.

You’re welcome.

Thanks Matthew.

Yeah saw that gap. Good thoughts – I’ll take a little short term positivity.