Will oil lead the move up in gold
Gary kicks off today with comments on oil and how it will impact the rest of the commodities. His outlook continues to be much more bullish than most people on oil. Do you think that oil is set up for a sustained run up?
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really, wow that’s a tall order Agatha, heading into the most volatile two months of the year with so many issues coming to a head and your asking Gary for direction?
Flip a coin, then flip it again, lol
Oil and Gold have not danced well together this past year
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42679293693&listNum=1&a=422985308
Agree Gary a close, especially a weekly close above $62.58 will be very bullish, long way to go yet!
ECB QE announcement today juiced US equities, Gold popped and rolled over as Yen did the same up/flop….pm’s miners don’t get bought on money leaving US equities and not with US equities, hmm
Best advice I’ve heard here lately is “stay in cash” . . . seems like the FED direction is the great uncertainty. No one really knows for sure if they are stupid enough to raise rates and crash the markets, or if they will “stand pat” and have the markets move sideways, or if they will reverse course and start easing again – which would likely reverse the PM bear markets. Time will tell, but I am keeping the powder dry for now.
no signal to short the pm’s sector or get long on my charts, Fri US NFP could reverse every move today, after long weekend all the pro’s are back at it lets see if they create a real move next week, cash is K$NG
When, in your opinion, should rates be raised? If not now, then when? Personally i think the risks to the economy of rate normalization is being heavily over-rated. Presumably it is understood by most people that at some point the emergency measures that have been by in place for so long already, must come to an end. So if you were the Fed, Phil, how would you select a date and time to end the interest rate suppression?
By the way, easing did nothing to help gold. So don’t wait for that to save your investment.
Mr. Listener –
I don’t remember stating an opinion in my post as to what the FED “should do” . . . you seem to have erroneously concluded that I did.
Now for my opinion: I never would have printed $3-4 trillion over the last 6 years or so years to try to “fix” a congressionally created real estate bubble in the first place. IN MY OPINION that was a very stupid thing to do. From that point of extremely poor judgement on . . . I am only along for the ride . . . and trying to make the best of it with my OWN monetary decisions.
However since YOU are a bit of a self-proclaimed (and apparently self-impressed as well) expert on national monetary policy, my recommendation to you is to contact Janet Yellen at your earliest convenience and let her know that you have the solution to all her woes. I am sure she would love to have you along for the ride to be another scape goat when she decides what to do and it invariable fails.
Have a nice day!
So when should rates be raised? That was the question. I am kind of curious since you wondered aloud if they were going to be so stupid as to do something to “crash the markets”.
In other words, when would it be safe to raise rates and not cause some discord?
Next month?….next year?……never? When would you rip off the band-aid Phil?
Let me see if I can be a bit more clear . . . I don’t think it matters a tinkers damn when they raise the rates. Frankly, it is my humble opinion that the FED should not even exist. They are an “extra-constitutional” organization that is aiding and abetting the destruction of this nation. BUT . . . the American people have long since lost the ability to understand this, and will blissfully step off the cliff with all the other lemmings . . .
No matter WHAT the FED does with rates, I think ultimately the U.S. and global economy is going to fail in a big way. Perhaps not tomorrow, or the next day . . . but soon.They have “wound the clock spring” so tight that it is going to break with one more turn . . . and turn it they will. To quote Jim Rogers: “of course they will print money . . . they don’t know anything else!”
+1 Bird.
Best,
LPG
Cheers, man.
The Fed is about to put the coup de grace on commodities, gold and EM currencies. Gold has a textbook head and shoulders on the daily, and a very rare black candle on the futures at $1117. The GDXJ now 2 days below its 20dma which mean it has a very very good chance of visiting the lower Bollinger band in the next week or so.
$Hui is headed below 100 and likely to 50 or lower. Sure at some point it will be a buy, maybe even soon, but not now.
Thx Gary, interesting, wonder if we see across the board inflation with the price rise in oil or if we continue with inflation and deflation simultaneously.
bb, what we really need to see is real wage inflation, wouldn’t be too quick to suggest higher oil is a true inflation indicator as you look around the world its deeeeflation, contraction, economic growth where?
The ndp government in Alberta is doing what they can by raising minimum wage, only thing of course is businesses are intending to employ fewer workers and fewer hours.
what are the chances NDP win federal election bb, raising min wage is not from economic growth, small business I’m sure would rather raise wages based on business growth
Of course jj, for some reason they got it in their heads that a family can not be supported on minimum wage, therefore it had to be raised.
I havnt had the chance to ask them when the purpose of minimum wage changed to raising families.
Seems a lot of corruption by Harper has been exposed and people for some reason have decided that too much corruption in a government is not beneficial.
The Liberals (last I looked) were still supporting the spy on Canadians bill c 51 and want to deficit spend their way to prosperity.
The NDP are talking balanced budget. And lord forbid helping indigenous peoples.
So its actually neck and neck, a toss up between all 3 right now.
Long way to go yet, and from what I hear the Harper group has the only prepared treasury, a little trick they did extending the time to convince voters.
Kinda similar to what the Canadian government did to the Newfoundlanders in 1948,
with its own twist of course.
Harper is a sneaky guy.
FYI, Alberta NDP has raised the minimum wage to $15. It will be implemented in 2017. Not sure how small business can afford it under current environment and how many young people out of job.
Society, not corporations, pays dearly for such stupid interventions as minimum wage laws. It’s a short term band aid that plunders savers and limits opportunities designed to keep the real problems from getting fixed.
And since when does an employer owe anyone a living wage? How dumb can people be?
As dumb as Americans, lol
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/americans-have-never-been-dumber
Canadians have approved of Obama even more than Americans have; so I think Americans have been trumped on that distinction. Sorry about the pun, that was uncalled for. 😐
When has oil ever lead anything? If anything, the unweighted CRB (which no longer exists) leads oil and will bottom before oil.
Gold looks absolutely terrible in the medium term. Absolutely nothing bullish going on technically in it or the miners. Ok, well maybe the miners put in an inverse hammer today, which could be bullish. But it would not shock me one bit if they just gap down tomorrow am.
NFP could well be the push Fri am in the pm’s sector
Looks like the S&P might be having some problems getting back to 2K. I hear the claws scraping for traction now.
Oil goes on sale, buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell!
How on earth is oil up 5% is the Saudis have just cut the price?
its a very thin line isn’t it Bob one that we have no idea how the computer driven oil trading market will react too, its on sale suggests higher demand??, its on sale suggests weaker prices??
Sounds like a pump and dump in operation?
Oil pricing is normally based on global supply and demand, not short term pricing discounts. I don’t see why Saudi’s price cut would affect anything at all because it is already based off what the market has done in the past. So it does not really tell us much about the future except that Europe saved a few cents a barrel..
Russia is China’s #1 oil exporter so this discount seems like at shot at the China/Russia relationship, there was a time Saudi’s were China’s #1 oil partner, maybe Saudi’s will except payment from China in Yuan, now that will get the market on CRACK!
is = if
Ok, if I squint, there is a possible larger inverse head and shoulder pattern on the $gold daily chart over the last few months in which the neckline slopes from top left to bottom right. Gold would not have to actually rally all that far to break the neckline.
I am thinking we are soon going to get a retest of the August lows.
Look at that H&S on Seabridge for a sense of what the market thinks.
Was the buyout of Gold Canyon mentioned on this board? Were they not a sponsor recently ? As a shareholder I cannot complain about the 0.35 offer.
Yes, it was mentioned.
Bob Moriarty did not mention the takeover of PC gold PKL.V though a couple of days ago, as part of the first finance deal. (From memory)
Your probly aware but Bob Moriarity wrote an article about Gold Canyon today at 321 gold.
NFP if it comes in with terrible numbers will shoot the S&P 500 above 2000 into the close as it would completely remove any chance of a Sept rate hike, weak data up it goes, completely nuts!!!!!!!! down goes $ reversing Euro weakness today, and yen pops with gold popping, oil up further
Strong data and Sept rate hike is in play so $ takes off above current resistance at 96.50 heading for 97.50 before testing 100
Somebody said they had not heard from Peter Grandich recently:
Yesterday’s comments. Enjoy.
http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/grandich.09.02.15.mp3
met Peter many times during the uranium bull market, nobody called it better than Peter, then when it was over he just couldn’t hit a bid, I haven’t been back to that sector since 2007 when Denison mines was $15 ($16.57 high) now flatlined these past 7 years between $2.00 and .55
Gave Pete a listen, there is nothing bullish on the monthly chart of gold these past 3 years, lower highs met by short position takers and lower lows, if this was a stock you’d trade it, breakout starts with leaving $1169 behind, $1225, $1275 before calls of $1400 have any hope of reality!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1
I tuned in to the Grandich interview too. He is contrarianly bullish. I don’t see it either though. Not yet anyway. As far as I can see 1050 is still in play as its inside the falling channel.
lets just test $1000 and get it over with bounce hard off $1000 and continue to play $1000-$1200 or set up a new trading zone $800-$1000 but lets get moving
Hello there. Greetings from the other side of the planet.
All this talk is getting me confused. It is my experience that in this global marketplace more or less everything goes down when the big indices go down for real. Gary is talking about the seven-year-cycle-low, Avi yesterday said that he expects the big indices to go lower after a minor push to the old highs.
As I understand it there are so many big players investing with borrowed money that they will have to sell also some good assets, stocks etc. to cover the losses the would make on borrowed money.
Wouldn’t this also take down or suppress oil and oil stocks even if the CRB low is in right here and right here and now?
My experience is that just everything goes down. 😀
Best Regards.
I agree with you Nic, and there may not exist a safe haven.
I suspect however,if the system collapses, gold will not go down as much as the rest of non-essential goods. Where to store wealth where it won’t be stolen or taxed to death is a non-trivial problem.
Who knows if gold will follow oil up or even whether oil will continue going up?
the gold to oil ratio is very high, close to historic highs at 30 recently and has come down a bit into the 24 level with the rally in oil. Normal gold:oil is around 15. The high ratio is more than a hint of deflationary conditions.
So if the ratio were to normalise, oil might rally without gold. If it stays high then both will probably not rally much if at all due to deflationary conditions.
I would guess that if deflationary conditions go away to some extent oil will outstrip gold to the upside on any return to inflation and the ratio will normalise. If commodity deflation persists, the ratio will stay high and neither oil nor gold will move much to the upside and might go down instead in US dollar terms.
Conventional markets made giant hammer candles on the weekly charts last week, mostly slight up candles too. Is that not short term bullish?
NFP could reverse every market move today silverbug dave as we have seen many times in the past, it may well be time to get long US equities again?
In answer to Cory’s comment, maybe we need to look back further for perspective on gold
Gold under $1150 does not look good compared to the past 5 years but it looks excellent compared to anytime before 2008.
I am beginning to think that we need to look at those pre-2008 prices for a level on gold as faur value, especially since oil and some other commodities never exceeded their 2008 highs. Maybe gold should never have gone above $1080 and silver should never have gone above $21 (their respective early 2008 pre-credit crunch highs)
I think you are right at some level. Gold likely cannot return to pre-2008 levels. Too much inflation has been “built in” to the economy. It is not human nature to accept deflation. No one wants to sell things for less than they paid for them. At some point, they will simply hold on until the economy moves the other way.
For you who believe the Fed/Gov’t/PPT is in these markets, why not just announce it as China, Japan, Russia, etc. have done? They would get 100x more bang for their buck, so why keep it secret? Why print $4t and ANNOUNCE every monthly purchase of bonds, but keep it quiet about stocks, gold, etc. And finally, the stock market means little to the public on a large scale, whereas as prices at the the pump matters more than anything, so why not use all that firepower to keep crude under $50 than to keep the spoos up every day?
Hi there jon. I don’t know what to make of all this. But I am really interested in what You have to say.
1.) So then when and why do You think will markets crash next time?
2.) Here I got a citation from a recent article by James West:
“”””Authoritative articles on the ‘Plunge Protection Team’ as it was coined for a headline in the Washington Post in 1997, suggest that the group deploys funds from the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a (2006 figure) $38 billion secret account of the Treasury department to buy large volumes of stocks and stock futures to influence technical indicators and thus ease selling pressure during times of abnormally huge market sell-offs.
The only hard evidence that such is the case is the consistently repeated pattern during market swoons of 400 points or more on the Dow in a single day, or when the 50 day moving average moves below the moving 200 day average – known as the ‘Death Cross’ among technical traders – of miraculous reversals against all logic. “”””
What do You think? Does it make You think at all?
Best Regards and Good Luck with Your trading.
also, the volume in the 3x miner funds is meaningless on any timeframe greater than a month. Yes, large volume predicts a pop, but we very well may have already finished the pop up.
The next “bottom” will probably have even higher volume, and so on and so on.
Pop goes flop….seeing $yen and so many other sectors included in a lot of charts lately with yen, finally MSM wakes up, its only been going on under the radar for 8 years and in full view since 2011
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/why-rally-just-fizzled-draghis-puff-was-not-enough
Watch Dr. Copper.
Today’s action won’t show on those charts until this evening.
Those in power get to write history:
A lesson, the worst president in history might note.
His will not be praised.
Not to be crude, but here’s some info for the oilier types here:
http://www.howardweil.com/docs/Reports/WEEKLY%20REPORTS/REFININGReport.pdf
🙂
You slipped that one in.
But avoided a spill. 😮
ha ha ha !
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BDI
Always interesting in conjunction with tanker data.
The BDI bottomed well ahead of oil (and I do think that oil has most likely bottomed) this year and in 2008-09.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=8&mn=11&dy=30&id=p02329487404
BDI=black line
Good stuff, Matthew.
All of Hillary’s emails are now on the market at $500,000, offered by the Romanian Hacker, including satellite photos, classified secret, sent by Hillary.
The server installer pleads the fifth.
Hitlery stated they are on a witch hunt.
Well…they hunt no further..
They got the witch!
CFS, you empty more than $500gs out of your trouser pockets every night why not buy them and post it here, lol
LOOKS LIKE A SURE 10 BAGGER………………….
XLE is in a weekly and daily downtrend – lower highs and lower lows. Trend traders should stay out still, IMO.
GDX is also in a weekly downtrend – lower highs/lows. The daily chart is just drifting sideways. Trend traders should stay out of here, too, IMO.
Gary- you say 2 months churning in the S&P.. then what do you expect…?
thanks