There could be some big market moves coming… We will have to wait though!
Today we chat with Doc about the new range that volatility is hanging out in. This is reminiscent of back in 2007. We can all assume what might happen but we think it will take some time to further develop.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I’ll try to explain it this way—it appears we’re not anytime soon going to move back down to the previous “little volatility” we’ve had in the past. We’re at a higher level of volatility now and it appears we’ll remain in that range for the next few days. That means there is now a higher level of fear then in the past. It also means we’re set up for another spike in volatility to higher levels at anytime.
There will be impressive rallies but I don’t see how stocks can avoid going to MUCH lower levels.
Dow 33 years:
http://schrts.co/0zrMTw
Matthew, those are some great charts.
What charts? Nothing loads.
Can you see this one?:
http://schrts.co/ba1fi8
NICE CHART……….THANKS MATTHEW…………….
DOW broke 16,000 and in the 15,000 ,is on it’s way DOWN.
Bear Market….says Doc………I said that yesterday……..THE CLAW.
No. When they print as the short version “schrts” I cannot see them. I will assume you put something comedic up since Jerry is getting excited. What I am trying to figure out is why the old stockcharts were visible but the new ones aren’t……like the ones on Gary’s thread for example. No problem.
What is the difference? Serious question.
I get excited , with the mention of my name. You have aroused the animal nature in me………………………..THE CLAW…… 🙂
A…..L………..HOW is the turtle, ….found a mate ,yet.
A Listener; are you still having trouble loading the charts?
Yes Doc. I don’t know why either except the long versions that everyone used to put up still work but these annotated “schrts” versions won’t load.
Easy to see a line that crosses 5000-6000 area (And gold would meet it to make the 1:1 ratio – it just seems inevitable by 2020)
appreciate matthew
The Dow appears to have found a little support at the Schiff fork median line -for the moment anyway…
http://schrts.co/FFxQF2
CRB chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$crb&p=M&yr=35&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1
What a bubble 2008 was!
S&P GSCI Commodity Index:
http://schrts.co/gXzJgT
Can’t see them!…… Why do you bother posting charts nobody can open?
Why bother, you would not understand them anyway……
Here we have a weekly chart in which the Dow fell out of a modified Schiff fork while simultaneously falling into a standard Schiff fork (green):
http://schrts.co/nMMWii
Sorry. It won’t open. Try again Matthew.
It’s a strange thing – probably not so strange for the computer experts.
Without logging in to StockCharts, Matthew’s chart opens in three browsers, however, all three automatically convert the URL to
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=8&mn=5&dy=0&id=p36155196861&a=421704680
Must be something to do with your settings.
Thank you Irwin. I am not all that literate with computers. Maybe I can find someone around my neighborhood who can help. This has not happened before though. That’s why it puzzles me.
If silver can close the week above approx. 15.10 (green line), the door will be open to $17+
http://schrts.co/tWQb0V
This one too. Are you just being an ass now. I can’t open this chart.
Nooo, I think YOUR behavior qualifies though.
The S&P Bullish Percent Index is now at a 6 year low and its major monthly EMAs are pointing down. The index was launched in January, 1996 and the RSI reading has never been lower.
http://schrts.co/wK7qxg
Waste of my time. Chart will not load.
The Venture exchange is still higher than its August low but not by much.
http://schrts.co/8rSZtg
More wasted time. Don’t you have another place to post buddy?
Nope.
Shorted the S&P yesterday DOC for a 13% profit taking. I hope to be able to buy back in soon for the crash next month.
Jason, currently I’m shorting the Chinese market and added to those shorts today. I’ll short the conventionals by going long volatility at a certain time.
I bet GDM will break today’s fork support tomorrow:
http://schrts.co/jC9kBk
Can’t see it.
Matthew……….he is jacking with you………..
I’m wrong so far; GDM’s fork support is holding.
The Dow plunged versus oil from 1998 to 2008 before embarking on a 7 year countertrend rally that now appears to be ending in a double top after achieving a “382” Fibonacci retracement.
http://schrts.co/rK4K32
Here’s a daily look at Dow priced in oil:
oops…
http://schrts.co/WrBt10
Can’t see any of those charts Matthew. You are wasting your time. I bet I am not the only one. Silverbug Dave’s chart works though.
They all load fine for me,
Both on the phone & the computer.
Cheers.
OK Skeeta….then why won’t they open for me? I use Windows same as everyone here.
I don’t use Windows.
A.L.
I’m not sure why you can’t view them (sorry but I’m not a computer geek)
But everytime you’ve mentioned you can’t bring them up I’ve personally had no problems seeing Matthew’s charts posted on both my work pc & my phone.
I can only guess that the problem is at your end ?
It’s definitely not at Matthew’s end….his charts are liading fine for me & I don’t read others mentioning that they cannot access them ?
Hope your able to get it sorted out soon.
Cheers.
Charts opened fine for me as well – not using Windows.
Thanks Matthew, and best to you as always.
LPG
This is getting embarrassing for you. Why post charts nobody can open?
I’m not worried about “nobody,” I post charts for all the “somebodies” out there. 😉
Thanks for posting Matthew. They all load fine. Ignore the whiners.
If TCK and Freeport go down to the levels Doc thinks the commodities’ shares will have totally collapsed. Glencore will be long gone and there will be some kind of deflaionary collapse / panic occuring.
If that happens I go extra long on ECA and UWTI.
DOC:
Thanks for the market insights & details today. Trying to use your technicals to help get my timing in sync on both the PM’s & CRB stocks for year end buying opportunity. Listened to the seven minute mark covering the CRB several times and would appreciate some clarification. Do you see both the PM’s stocks & CRB stocks bottoming “AT THE SAME TIME” approximately late December, middle January?
All The Best,
JIM
Jim, that’s a tough one. It’s a tough one since normally when commodities and the PMs bottom, history shows the PMs bottom before the commodities. Right now the charts of both seem to be in sync with both looking like they’ll see an interim low in this cycle around December. Of course, this might not be the ultimate low since it’s possible that it’ll be around July of 2016. After this cycle bottoms around December, I’ll probably be able to get a good read whether we have one more low in 2016.
Jim, I just want to add one more thing—it’s interesting you mentioned the possibility of late December, middle January. Based on what I’m watching, you could be right on with that statement.
We are all living in the Twilight Zone.
funny irish…….
xing your back…………are you a cab driver…….
your to you’re
Tony, your spaceship just crash landed, and now you can see yourself in the past, doo, doo, doo, dododo!
I meet all my girlfriends there.
Here’s an interesting site for volatility:
Doc,
Good comments on the markets. I think you are correct.
Canadian dollar with Andrew’s fork based on monthly closing prices:
http://schrts.co/vPdGoH
That’s an ugly chart for the CAD.
Thanks also for this Matthew.
Best,
LPG
Matthew,
And yet another chart that proves my point.
Over 33 years up up up.
Slight corrections along the way but always always up.
Buy stocks and real estate, retire rich.
Buy gold and silver, enjoy the roller coaster and end up where you started at.
Thanks again Matthew
JTL, your obviously correct.
Thing is, gold has a place in a portfolio, that place is 5-10% physical of Investable income, OLeary for example says 5%.(sort of a successful investor)
Guys hollering gold,gold gold, meaning a greater allocation than 5%, altho entitled to their opinion…better have their timing down. Which could be said for pretty much anything.
That, trying to time it, trading it, is not the purpose of gold. Gold shares, differant than gold, imo, comes from the 95% remaining after physical gold, as does physical silver.
IMO, those arguing with you are 100% wrong, but your not 100% right either, your missing 5% physical. lol
If we think about the actual amounts Im talking about, 5% is peanuts, most tradesman for example dont have $1000 a month to invest,(annual income is about 70k) but if they did, were talking $50 a month to gold. or , a night at the pub.
Everyone on this site, apparently has about $10k a month to invest so, $500 a month or about 1/4 once.(in canada)
If they are suggesting to put $10k a month into gold, I would consider the source, also, last I read 1% of the worlds population owns 30 onces or more.
On the other hand, the person with 3000 onces will never be poor.
My daughters education was paid for with shares in Disney, not gold, she was born in 83, you mentioned 1982.
My biggest profit ever was shares in a bank (other than businesses)
Shares can definitely be a good thing, and so is 5% physical gold. imo anyway.
Keep contributing, nice to have some balance around here.
Re: “And yet another chart that proves my point.”
-Really? What point is that; that linear extrapolation is a good idea? Or is it that one should avoid learning the difference between nominal and real? Are you aware that gold is up TWICE as much as the Dow since 1966? (16x vs 32x)
I doubt that anyone besides BB is impressed with your recognition that the ’80s and ’90s were a good time to deploy capital. Hopefully, but doubtfully, you also realize that holding a lot of the best form of cash has been the best thing to do since ’99/’00. Gold is STILL worth THREE TIMES more Dow today than it was back then. In 2011, it was worth 7.5 times more Dow(!!!).
Yes, keep bringing that “balance” that is SO needed around here, lol.
Absolutety Mathew, buy buy buy gold gold gold, god is on our side, shortage shortage shortage is plain bs. unless your selling of course.
Ive used “get it while there hot” myself many times.
gold does have its place tho.
For those who like stuff that collect dust.
I do, with 5% of investable income.
Actually, 1 more point, disney shares paid for my daughters education, not gold, the gold I purchased then still has dust on it. lol
In other words, it has done nutin, some people might figure that it has been useless all those years.
Where as the shares, they were arguably a little more useful I think.
BB, when are you going to stop the silliness? Shares are more “useful?” “Arguably” I think not. But it’s a silly claim either way. There’s a time for each but gold should not be compared to the stock market it should be compared to the dollar.
I have to say, Armstrong has provided a valuable service with his shilling. Based on those who eat up everything he says, we now know just how far up the food chain the mass confusion goes. It doesn’t just include your set, BB.
You owned Disney during one of the greatest economic expansions ever. However, since 2000, the economy has been contracting in real terms (though not in a straight line!). This is why (REAL) cash has been king. Gold is not only worth 3 times as much Dow, but it is worth 4 times as much fiat Fed debt paper.
Question: Would you feel more comfortable putting a modest $100,000 into gold right now or Disney stock? Hopefully James TL will opine too.
I dont feel comfortable with either option.
I dont think 100k is modest actually, and if it is for you, why are you bothering with any of it? Plain “action” I would guess, that I understand, I used to thrive on it.
If you have enough investment dollars to consider 100k a modest toss of the dice, maybe ask yourself how much you actually need.
Wealth is no sin, but dieing with it might be.
Why am I bothering with any of it? Wealth is no sin, but dying with it might be?
Scary stuff BB. You REALLY need to study economics. When enough people have thoughts like yours, EVERYONE suffers.
If you bought stocks since 1982 you are a wealthy person,
If you bought gold and silver too bad
JTL , my recommendation for you is to sell your gold and forget about it. I just wish you follow your own advice. If you have no interest in gold, what is the point to come to this hard asset site and convince the people with strong commitment to do something even yourself don’t won’t to do? I.e. dump gold and buy stocks. I don’t understand what is you purpose of what you are doing? Release anger?
+1 🙂
+2
He likes it when Al strokes him, and refers to him as “greater”.
Great comment James. You are correct of course.
Hi Doc!
Is Xon a good buy at this levels(29-30$)?
Or is there an imminent risk yet?
Blue; XON is now dead money for awhile. You may get a short term bounce here but it appears it wants to head down to about 15-20. I believe there’s still a lot of imminent risk. It’ll take awhile to get down to 15-20.
Thank’s For your valuable answer.
You’re welcome—-have a great day.
if I heard correctly doc said no to little volatility less than 2 weeks ago-