The general consensus is that a huge bull market in most sectors is just around the corner.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I had been looking into buying some as something could trigger a big rally. It has risen very sharply. I missed the Cdn oil sands too. I wanted to get into Transocean but that has started rallying very hard and gone too quickly even while rig counts are falling.
Yep, I have missed Transocean also – flew up.
You guys have not missed anything! Not sure why you would say that. There is another chance to buy RIG by my reckoning if you only wanted it at its prior lows. But I still don’t think its final bottom has arrived either. All you missed was a short term trade…..no big deal…..another comes every day.
DT.. can you consider including the Link.. or the ‘news’…
thanks
Agatha here is the link to the article I read:
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2015/10/07/teck-t-tck-b-unloads-its-stake-antamina-jv-us$650-million-streaming-deal
Haven’t some streaming deals gone belly up lately? I was wondering is the whole streaming model was going to go up the chute if this bear market reaches a mega-climax.
However, I would think that FNV has done a great job negotiating a deal here when their counterparty is probably on the floor.
Yeah right. I thought these marginal “higher highs” were designed to paint the charts and trap technical trend followers. Bought more SPY puts today.
Gary,
I know you think the fed is going to do more QE to save the markets, but that’s not going to happen. The US and European markets are going to hit the skids pretty soon.
All of the emerging markets gave bottomed including Shanghai and Russia. Once we hit new highs there will be a blowoff top. And the 7 year cycle low should be around February of 2016. Just giving you the heads-up.
There should be some kind of stimulus or capital that saves the economy, but it won’t go into the stock exchange. It will go into commodities. That’s why most commodities ,except gold and oil ) have bottomed along with the emerging markets.
If you think the Fed is going to just sit on the sidelines and watch 4-5 trillion dollars of QE go down the drain and do nothing to stop it I have some beach front property I’d like to sell you here in Las Vegas. 🙂
Really? On what lake?
Better find the beach in Vegas…( – ;
Great lake there in Vegas……has an Elliott WAVE SLIDE…..
Ha!
What the Fed holds on its balance sheet are called assets, Gary. They are not going down the drain regardless of what happens to stock markets this year or next. Have a look at the linked chart for a better idea of the value and various components of their holdings are.
Federal Reserve Board Statistical Release for October 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
I will go beck ! To get you ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhBHz_jsvsc
Helpe ME !
Am waiting for a pullback in GDX, and XLE.
Understand, folks that Gary uses cycles – which enables him to “see ahead”. TA is a windsock, and only shows the past. Cycles and EW (Elliott Wave) are the only TA tools that enable one to see ahead.
Do they actually work or not?, is open to discussion. Me, I think they work enough to take a 2nd look. But I still rely 100% on TA for my actual money, in actual trades.
Actually, let me correct myself – Gary doesn’t use just Cycles – he uses TA, and COT, and Sentiment, plus a few special things like volume checks in NUGT, WSJ buying on weakness, etc.
And so far Gary is right – GDX went up.
And here I sit on the sidelines, waiting for a pullback, hoping and praying.
Don’t fret Bill. You will get your pullback. It has already begun actually so the wait won’t be a long one.
The outlook for underlying fundamentals in gold is correct, that we will see the 34-week EMA. There should be an accompanying rally, but the action in the gold price says a pause. Gold prices saw short sales preceding FOMC notes, so I guess the notes will be an important message for positioning in the markets.
^ This indicator depends very much on a rally in the miners, and not necessarily the gold mining companies, and not necessarily major indeces.
Doc the Fed minutes Thursday afternoon if Hawkish or Dovish will give you your volatility as of Thursday not weeks out.
Gary you pull the manipulation card when gold doesn’t do what your cycle work suggests and now your pulling a QE card when the US equities rise, so what QE are you talking about the one the market has not been told about??????
You do realize what you’ve said regarding the miners you’ve said many. many times these past few years, many times!
If the Fed minutes are as Dovish as the FOMC statement than gold and the S&P will rise as they did off the FOMC meeting and the NFP release as they were all Dovish
Like I said in the interview it would be better for gold to slow down and back and fill a bit. That is bull market behavior. And as you well know but choose to forget, I was just looking for intermediate degree bear market rallies. Now I think we have a good chance that the bear market is over.
Of course if I only made calls two weeks in hindsight like you, then sure I could get every call exactly right, but as far as I know no one gets to trade in hindsight with real money.
Start making calls in real time and maybe we’ll start taking you seriously.
You do have a great sense of anticipating moves Gary. I really appreciate that about you. I just don’t think we have completed the bottoming process in metals yet. check your longer term charts and see if maybe you agree with me. To my eyes they are unequivocal. Gold remains in a bear market.
Doc
You sound tired. Keep short your gold position 🙂 🙂
Peter
Sold half my Royal Gold (RGLD) position today.
If a decent pull-back materializes I’ll buy equal weighting of RGLD and FNV.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGLD&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p77176335779&a=426852495
Irwin, do you watch Freeport? It has come close to doubling. The run looks to be over for now but it was a worthy move.
No, have never paid much attention to it, although I likely own some through a mutual fund or two.
Here’s a story of a different streaming company doing a deal with a different commodity conglomerate, but this seemed like a relevant place to post this article:
_____________________________________________________________________
Franco-Nevada to Acquire a Silver Stream on the Antamina mine from Teck for US$610 million
TORONTO, Oct. 7, 2015
Gosh Doc, if you agree with Gary that we may have seen the lows in July in silver and gold@1071, why do you think HL can drop to $1 and SLW to 10 ?
I can’t see any bull market with a move up to just 1179 or even 1200. Gold has rallied $200 in past years and then declined again. A move to 1400+ would be needed but we really would have to reach 1500+..
True Paul,
but that would not be a new bull market in Gary’s analysis….as he said “a slow grind up a wall of worry”…..like the 2009 conventionals. Probably wishful thinking on my part, but so far my Detour gold is up +30% since the July lows as is KGI, .
By the way, dropped my Penn West today…mission accomplished. Could ramp up another +%20 but the stock should take a nice mini kick if oil returns to the 43-45 dollar mark. Might buy it again at that point or secure something more stable like a Advantage oil & gaz.
I am in your camp Doc. I know everyone here is jumping to get back on a gold bull but its just not happening yet according to what I watch. Seasonally, I expect precious metals to do well in January just as you have mentioned but even then, if gold cannot break out of its declining channel in the first quarter of the year there are going to be a lot of sad faces around here.
On a high note, Teck has really taken off the past few days. Volumes are at very high levels not seen in the past two years. We were over 20 million shares traded today and it is still on a buy.
Maybe Teck has indeed put in its final lows. That would be a good sign for gold going forward.
Man, I should have put the Teck & Franco Nevada story (posted up above) near this.
This streaming/funding news probably accounts for some of the increased volume.
Beat you too it!
I know that Doc thinks that we will see TCK under 5 bucks again but I think the FCX down to 1 or 2 bucks looks very difficult now.
I get a feeling that the big panic when Glencore dropped down to about 65p the other week has somehow caused some kind of bottom in the resource stocks. It – Glencore – is now almost double that 65p low and it seems to have seen many other iron, coal and copper miner fly also.
Don’t know what to make of it to be honest.
Coeur Mining Reports Higher Year-On-Year Third-Quarter Production
Wednesday October 07, 2015
SilverCrest Metals Announces Completion of Arrangement and TSX Venture Exchange Listing
VANCOUVER, Oct. 7, 2015
Endeavour Mining mails information circular in connection with special meeting and files Ity Mine technical report
VANCOUVER, Oct. 7, 2015
The highlights of the partnership include:
– Endeavour will acquire La Mancha’s 55% interest in Société des Mines d’Ity S.A. (SMI), which operates the Ity Gold Mine in Côte d’Ivoire, plus various regional exploration properties
– La Mancha will contribute US$63 million of cash to Endeavour (including an estimated $25 million of attributable cash held in SMI)
– La Mancha will be issued new Endeavour shares representing 30% of the enlarged share capital, and will nominate Naguib Sawiris, Chairman of the La Mancha Advisory Board, and Sébastien de Montessus, CEO of the La Mancha Group, to expand Endeavour’s 7 member board to 9
– La Mancha has expressed an in-principle commitment to fund up to US$75 million of Endeavour’s future organic and/or corporate growth opportunities
– La Mancha has agreed to a two year standstill at the 30% level, and will have the right to maintain this ownership level in Endeavour by participating in new equity offerings, thereby demonstrating the long-term nature of the partnership
HONG KONG SELL OFF…………….are the Chinese back from holiday?
Noticed…..this is the first time, that I can remember any sell off of silver in asia markets! So, have the boyz moved. Indians reported the other day a huge purchase of silver, what happen did they get cold feet.
Bundesbank “Reassures” Gold Bullion Reserves As Deutsche Bank Shocks With €6 Billion Loss Warning
Mark O’Byrne
October 8, 2015
Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on google_plusone_shareShare on linkedinShare on emailShare on printMore Sharing Services
0
The German Bundesbank released an inventory of its gold reserves yesterday in order to quell ongoing public concerns about the true amount of actual unencumbered reserves and the location of the reserves stored in vaults in Frankfurt, London, Paris and particularly in the New York Federal Reserve.
(Photo: Reuters)
The central bank said its gold reserves amount to 3,384 tonnes of gold worth just €107 billion at today’s prices.
The move is the latest by the central bank, which is in the process of trying to move its gold reserves back to Germany after the eurozone sovereign debt crisis broke out in 2012 and led to public concerns and questions about the safety of Germany’s gold reserves.
Germany’s gold reserves are the second biggest in the world after those of the U.S. but Germany has been struggling to repatriate its gold reserves from the U.S. Federal Reserve in recent years. This has created wider concerns about the U.S. own gold reserves.
See Bundesbank Announces Repatriation of 120 Tonnes of Gold from Paris and New York Federal Reserve
The Bundesbank also helpfully provided a massive 2,302 page report, presumably in an attempt to create further transparency and understanding of the issue which remains an important one to large sections of the German political and financial class and the public who are concerned about a new Eurozone debt crisis and the ongoing debasement of the euro.
During the Cold War the West German Bundesbank was happy to keep its gold in the U.S. in case of nuclear war or an invasion from East Germany and the Soviet Union. Today there are public concerns about the Federal Reserve’s gold reserves and the indeed the precarious U.S. fiscal situation.
Hence, the desire to have clarity re the exact nature of the amount and legal ownership of the gold (possible gold lending, swaps etc) and having the gold reserves on German soil again in case of another U.S, Eurozone and global financial crisis or indeed a likely global monetary crisis.
Deutsche Bank Shocks With €6 Billion Loss Warning
Coincidentally, on the same day Deutsche Bank has warned it will lose a whopping €6.2 billion ($7 billion) in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly loss in at least a decade and potentially ever.
Many of those voicing concerns about the gold reserves are also concerned about the still unreformed, out of control and very fragile banking system.
In a peculiar late night announcement that shocked analysts globally, Germany’s biggest bank blamed huge “impairment charges” of €5.8 billion for the unexpected losses. Forecasts had been for profits of around €1 billion.
The charges are related to “higher capital requirements” for Deutsche’s investment bank and the reduced value of its Postbank division, which is up for sale.
On top of this, the bank is setting aside €1.2 billion to cover litigation costs. Like other banks, Deutsche has been caught up in the Libor-rigging scandal and faces another investigation in Switzerland for suspected price-fixing in the precious metal market.
Gillian Tett, ourselves and many others have warned that Deutsche and its massive derivative book has the potential to be a ”European Lehman Brothers”. Is Deutsche Bank, the largest holder of Warren Buffett’s “financial weapons of mass destruction” derivatives in trouble?
********
The German gold reserves are being held by other countries……according to other reports yesterday.
never mind……I see the rest of the sentence……
Hum … Something Blew Up In The Global Financial System
Glencore
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-07/banks-glencore-exposure-is-a-100-billion-gorilla-bofa-says
BULLTIN – TODAY IS ‘WEIRD WOLLIE WEDNESDAY’
The term was invented by market analyst, Don Wolunchuk. Weird Wally is most likely caused by the fact that most futures have “rollover” dates on the Wednesday/Thursday the week before expiration. The quarterly Weird Wallies (March, June, September, December) will see more volatility since many futures are quarterly (such as the widely traded S&P e-mini) and not monthly. Weird Wally is not really an options phenomenon, but it does affect options and options traders because many futures traders hedge with options and will close those options positions when they rollover/close their futures positions. As I’ve said, Weird Wally Wednesday and sometimes the day after tend to be down days. In bull markets, it tends to set up a buying opportunity ahead of the following week’s options expiration.
The post BULLTIN – TODAY IS ‘WEIRD WOLLIE WEDNESDAY’ appeared first on The Leibovit VR Newsletter.
maybe Ker can talk about Deutsche and Glencore…blowing up…. what will next week bring..??another hairball from Deutsche,,?????
Doc, I have been following TCK since you mentioned that it might correct to less then $1 at the end of this year, during tax loss season, do you still feel that way after the run it has just had probably do to it’s news release today. DT