Gary Savage – Wed 14 Oct, 2015

Gold breaks a couple technical levels and continues to look strong

Gary kicks odd today with comments focusing on the gold market. He continues to see gold entering a bull market and the US dollar continuing to decline. He also has a call for HUI that will make many holder very happy if it hits.

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Featuring:
Gary SavageAl KorelinCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On October 14, 2015 at 9:24 am,
    spanky says:

    If we have hit bottom in gold, it will be interesting to see how the miners do over the next 5 years or so. Looking at the long term BGMI chart, miners essentially go straight up or straight down in 2-3 year bursts.

    Also, it is interesting to note that the miners haven’t really gone anywhere in 35 years. That is one hell of a base.

    My only concern are the long term moving averages, like the 200wma, which could temper the speed of the rally. Would rather make my millions in 5 years than 10. Lol.

  2. On October 14, 2015 at 9:34 am,
    Matthew says:

    If the miners follow the path that I think they might, a lot of bulls will be left with a dilemma: http://schrts.co/ef2DKg

    • On October 14, 2015 at 9:35 am,
      Matthew says:

      I’m talking about bulls that need to buy.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 10:06 am,
      Brian says:

      I agree. I am 85% invested at this point. Going forward, I will buy trading shares in my favorite PM miners (AXU, PVG) on pullbacks and dance with JNUG.

      I am betting (literally) that Gary has this right.

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:32 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        I also agree with Gary and am 95% invested and am willing to endure tax loss season as I know that one day our mining stocks will leave the valley of despair and rise to the broad sunlit uplands. I also like AXU and PVG, as well as TGD, MUX, AG, EXK, PAAS, SLW, HL, SSRI, NSRPF, DRGDF, EGO, PPP, SAND, FNV, RGLD, GG, NGD, KGC, and NEM. I have my own private mutual fund that charges no annual fees.

        • On October 14, 2015 at 11:46 am,
          Brian says:

          I’m considering selling some of my paper gold/silver and buying streamers: SAND and SLW.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 11:54 am,
            A Listener says:

            Getting ready to dump and get short gold. Just waiting for the sweet spot which could come at any moment now.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:07 pm,
            Richard says:

            A-
            What are you looking for on the downside?

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:22 pm,
            Matthew says:

            You said gold was a short $30 ago, A.L.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:33 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Whatever I said was probably a very short term call. Don’t make too much of it Matthew. If I mean longer term I will say so. But just for your information there was a corrective decline even though it was minor so my call was in fact correct.

            Anyway, why are you bothering me? I thought you did not want conversation?

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:36 pm,
            Matthew says:

            No, it was definitely NOT correct. No big deal though, it happens.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:38 pm,
            A Listener says:

            I can’t find my chart right now Richard but DUST should make close to a double if I am correct. Still waiting though for my target to come into play. Judging by all the bullishness I am reading on the site today though there is a smack-down coming. This cycle is stretched. Too many up days on gold in a row. That in itself is often a good indicator of exhaustion. The Bollinger bands are supportive for a reversal so I am not too worried even if nothing comes to fruition until Friday.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:41 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Just one more thing to add, Richard. The dollar looks to be very near an interim bottom and should bounce soon. Possibly tomorrow. It is also on good support. If it drops deeper though I suppose bets are off but right now the stars are lined up for gold to go down again.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:48 pm,
            Brian says:

            A.L.

            The comments today are actually quite low, on count, for such an up PM day. Plus, only a handful of KER listeners are posting multiple times. So, I disagree that KER comments section is a contrarian indicator (Quite the opposite, actually).

            But .. you may make some money on the back-filling; my hope (not a prediction) is a couple tests of 1170-1180 range, then back above 1200 into the new year.

            Brian

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:57 pm,
            Richard says:

            Thanks A, I appreciate it.
            On the same page as you. Looking for short term smackdown.
            It may have a little more upside, but now is close enough. CPI report tomorrow. I have a long PLAT / short GOLD trade on now and just closed 2/3 of the long PLAT side, so I am net short the metals now, but remain long miners.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:58 pm,
            A Listener says:

            I think it was Matthew who said it was a contrary indicator. I only agreed that I thought most people were probably busy buying what was on the move. Just a guess of course. I have no way of knowing. But you are correct the commenting is way down. Maybe the gold folks are just burned out after so many years of this kind of action and nobody wants to show excitement anymore. To my way of looking at it, if you are playing both sides of the trade you would feel energized all the time. I don’t really care all that much about gold or whether it rises or not…..just the trade itself.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 1:02 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Anytime Richard. Did you check that DUST chart btw? Very solid support has come into play around 11.90 so that suggests a gold decline is imminent. It is about as convincing as you can get without actually knowing what will happen (only God and Goldman know for sure!).

          • On October 14, 2015 at 1:22 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The low number of comments was/is a bullish contrary indicator. Not one that suggests shorting gold.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 1:27 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Bought DUST @ 11.55 and now we will see if I get my arse handed me on a platter tomorrow if Gary turns out to be correct. I am not that worried though. It looks very good right now for a reversal in the gold space so I feel pretty positive.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 2:30 pm,
            Brian says:

            If you follow the PM 3X-ers (JNUG/JDST, NUGT/DUST)

            JNUG has pierced and closed above the upper Keltner Channel for the first time in a year. I don’t know if it means anything, but we will see !

          • On October 14, 2015 at 2:39 pm,
            A Listener says:

            There are conflicting technicals wherever you look Brian. I also noticed JNUG’s action and paused to reconsider my decision. But I dance to my own drummer for better or worse and its my view that gold’s rise (and the miners) will take a little break here. I could be early in the trade if that’s what you are thinking. And we would probably agree. Catching exact tops and bottoms is a lot harder than it looks!

            But it can be done if we stay focused.

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:53 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        I also own AUY and Osisko, and probably more. My Royal Oak and ANV aren’t looking too good.

        • On October 14, 2015 at 12:01 pm,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          I found more that I own: VGZ, IAG, CROCF, GORO, and GSR.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 2:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bonzo – you’ve named a lot of great companies on this thread today, so longer term you should be fine. Good luck to you in your investing.

  3. On October 14, 2015 at 9:36 am,
    Marty says:

    Just to corroborate Gary’s $.88 on the $USD, the point & figure chart has a price objective of $.88 also.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 10:59 am,
      Paul L. says:

      I have had a 88 target for a while but it could go to the 85 many months from now. They have to get the dollar down to allow the 1st interest rate hike.

  4. On October 14, 2015 at 9:46 am,
    spanky says:

    Slv weekly chart we are right at the 50wma, with the upper Bollinger band not far off. We haven’t made a push into the upper Bollinger since 2012 on the weekly chart (20,2).

  5. On October 14, 2015 at 9:47 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    THE WEDGE…SHOT, hit the shorts in the shorts…………………

    • On October 14, 2015 at 1:55 pm,
      Gator says:

      FFM…the old wedgie…favorite high school prank..although I was on the short end at one time…

      • On October 14, 2015 at 3:23 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Time to take a short ride……………come on gator , I can not believe you were short this steamer roller bull……..lol

  6. On October 14, 2015 at 9:49 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    FRIDAY WILL TELL THE TELL…………

    • On October 14, 2015 at 10:39 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Somebody mentioned OPTION EXPIRY FRIDAY………..OCT 16

  7. On October 14, 2015 at 9:50 am,
    Matthew says:
  8. On October 14, 2015 at 10:10 am,
    Dragonite says:

    I usually don’t care about technicals but now I am watching 1180 and hope it is touched. It has been a multi-year soft support until we broke it firmly in June. Every time we broke it, the price rose quickly above it until this summer. It price rises up above it again, the trend is changed. So far this down trend has been unidirectional since April 2013. It has been a perfect bear market, at least cyclical one. Never see another market doing except DOW which unidirectional up.

  9. On October 14, 2015 at 11:01 am,
    Mark says:

    ****** MONTHS AGO I TOLD ALL OF YOU THAT THIS WOULD ALL BE OVER IN OCTOBER, AND IT IS ******

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:07 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      see my note……next page………..

  10. On October 14, 2015 at 11:03 am,
    Paul L. says:

    I had to dispose of my gdx too cheap 2 weeks ago to load up on BP at 29.60 which I sold at 35.95 after 8 days. I am hoping there is a sharp correction on GDX down into the 14.50 area eventually.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:36 am,
      Bob UK says:

      Might be waiting a while.

      • On October 14, 2015 at 3:25 pm,
        A Listener says:

        Like Friday at the latest. I will be very surprised if GDX exceeds 18 dollars before breaking down again (insert surprise face emoticon here).

  11. On October 14, 2015 at 11:07 am,
    Brian says:

    To be honest, I am surprised at the small number of posts on KER, given the activity in the PMs and miners. Did most people give up on the sector? Or are they STILL on the sidelines waiting for that drop below $1,000 for gold?

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:11 am,
      Brian says:

      Having said that, nothing would make me happier than seeing bounce around the 1180-1200 level until December, then give me a couple days around Christmas to take advantage of tax-loss selling.

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:42 am,
        Matthew says:

        I noticed the lack of comments last night and considered it a bullish indicator.

        • On October 14, 2015 at 11:57 am,
          A Listener says:

          So did I. Everyone is likely too busy to tune in to the shows and do much talking right now. Even Al and Cory are bringing the shows on later in the day. I am sure they don’t want to miss the morning action either.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:12 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      GOOD question Brian……..

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:19 am,
      spanky says:

      Nothing to say. We have been blathering about value and fundamentals for YEARS. All to no avail. Lots of false starts since 2011, so people are definitely gun shy? Me, I have been all in for a couple of months. The implications of a new bull in the miners are too extreme to pass up. It literally could be a once in a lifetime type move, and the initial 6 month thrust could be incredible. That’s why catching the bottom is so huge.

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:29 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        A….4 yr. descending WEDGE has been BROKEN……..so some say , and some say other than Gary

  12. On October 14, 2015 at 11:26 am,
    spanky says:

    My dad literally loaded the boat with AUY over the last 2 months. He convinced me to buy it even though I thought silver miners would do better off the bottom. Boy was I glad I listened to him. What an epic run already. Strong hands now. Up 50% now. I am setting my stop at breakeven because the implications of a new bull are potentially life changing.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:39 am,
      Matthew says:

      Congrats Spanky!

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:50 am,
      Brian says:

      Feels good, doesn’t it?

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:56 am,
        spanky says:

        Yes, but I lost a ton of my gains during the bear. We have a long long long way to go for me to ever see my account size the same as it was in February 2011. But if any sector can deliver the mother of all bulls, the mining sector is it. From a contrarian perspective they are a DREAM.

        • On October 14, 2015 at 12:00 pm,
          Dragonite says:

          Same here. Considering I took a lot of profit at the top, this is brutal.the miners were wiped out.

        • On October 14, 2015 at 12:06 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          I THINK RIGHT NOW………is the time to BUY miners. for anyone on the sidelines…..JMHO

  13. On October 14, 2015 at 11:29 am,
    Jason says:

    If we claw our way up to $1250 and stay there it’s all over for the bears.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:33 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      DITTO……………..THE CLAW

  14. On October 14, 2015 at 11:32 am,
    Jason says:

    NUGT up 100% post split!

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:39 am,
      Silverdollar says:

      Still not acting like the NUGT of old though today is showing some promise. Personally looking for an easy $60.

  15. On October 14, 2015 at 11:46 am,
    spanky says:

    The majors and gold majors in particular have been the place to be as they play catch up to the outperformance of the juniors over the last 7-8 months. I think the tables will turn at the next I intermediate bottom, assuming the bottom in gold is in.

    • On October 14, 2015 at 11:50 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      If the hedge funds inter the market, as some have suggested, they will not be playing penny stocks, if history is any indicator…..

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:52 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        then again they might…………….

        • On October 14, 2015 at 11:58 am,
          spanky says:

          Later in the cycle for sure the small miners will go absolutely insane. Again, assuming the bottom is in.

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:07 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            SEE my note above…………..I think RIGHT NOW….is time to buy if anyone is on the sidelines…..

          • On October 14, 2015 at 12:08 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            sidenote…………do not go crazy….

  16. On October 14, 2015 at 11:58 am,
    Dragonite says:

    Gary, you made a great call the day before the FOMC. You earned respect. Even this is the top, your call is still great. Right to the day.

    Hope for your next good call.

  17. On October 14, 2015 at 12:06 pm,
    Richard says:

    I think most of the tax loss selling has been done already in the sector.

  18. On October 14, 2015 at 12:12 pm,
    Paul L. says:

    Dollar is falling hard. Down to 93.96 now -.89%

    • On October 14, 2015 at 1:20 pm,
      A Listener says:

      Exactly. And look at the Euro too which is hitting on overhead resistance. Euro should drop here and dollar start to rise again.

  19. On October 14, 2015 at 12:13 pm,
    Gabriel says:

    XAU/USD breaking 200 DMA. Like a stallion. Let’s see if it holds. That’s the thing about gold. You can’t time entry, must always accumulate.

    Alligator’s tongue chart:
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/MBbCvfSS/

  20. On October 14, 2015 at 12:58 pm,
    Tim says:

    As pleasing as it is to see this move up in the PM sector, I still don’t trust it – there are so many gurus calling for lower lows (Avi Gilbert amongst others) that I can’t allow myself to get excited. If and when silver breaks over $20 – we’ll know the bull is back on…

    • On October 14, 2015 at 4:12 pm,
      gary says:

      Just like I said would happen, everyone will now try to pick a top instead of riding the strong trend that is developing.

      • On October 14, 2015 at 11:57 pm,
        A Listener says:

        Gary, that is a generalization and matter of your personal opinion. It is not a prediction so it does not make you right about anything. If gold fails to break out of its declining channel on the weekly chart we will remain in an official gold bear market until short covering finally takes it higher. I am not predicting the end to this bear for example. My view is that gold needs to prove itself and I have no interest in coming to 99.9% conclusions like yours based on a few technicals that may or may not be good enough for that kind of conclusion. What you are doing is closer to gambling than investing because you have firmly embraced a philosophy before you have enough facts to support your reasoning. How many times have you already called the bottom and been wrong (many times) and why should anyone believe you now?…….anyway, I appreciate your enthusiasm but I still think you are getting ahead of the charts.

  21. On October 14, 2015 at 12:59 pm,
    Tim says:

    I am heavily long by the way, so up to my neck in this – I’m going to wait as long as it takes (as long as I’m still here!) for this bull get going…

  22. On October 14, 2015 at 1:12 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Wow – been swamped lately playing on vacation out in the woods and then working like madman upon my return. The markets have been kind to my miners lately with many up in double-digits the last few weeks.

    The winner for me today was Jaguar up over 51% at the end of the day. Nice.

    Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAGGF) OTC
    0.24 Up 0.08(51.61%) 3:02PM EDT

    • On October 14, 2015 at 1:14 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’m actually sad I missed some of the excitement on the blog during the recent PM rally, but plan on going back and re-reading the last week’s posts.

      Hope all are doing well!

      • On October 14, 2015 at 1:18 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        just make that reading (not re-reading), because I haven’t read anything since last Thursday morning. I listened to a few audios when I could but am way behind on the markets, but thank goodness we have a good site like this where you can come and fuel up on good information and a variety of perspectives.

        Cheers!

      • On October 14, 2015 at 1:25 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Welcome back Excelsior and good job with JAG!

        • On October 14, 2015 at 1:48 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Matthew. It looks like the PM miners have been very lively. Probably better that I was out of range of technology for a while so I could let the winners run a bit 🙂

    • On October 14, 2015 at 9:22 pm,
      Brian says:

      +50% in one day … I kind of hate you right now, Shad.
      😉

      • On October 15, 2015 at 9:15 am,
        Excelsior says:

        🙂 Well, Jaguar was due and is still due for more of a re-rating. Back in the last PM cyclical bull this stock was many multiples higher, it ran into a few snags right as the markets tanked, when all the way down to bankruptcy, restructured, came out, and they’ve been gradually making improvements in production and cost controls quarter after quarter, yet the price stayed buried. Maybe they are finally getting noticed again since the metals have been perking up a bit.

        Good luck in your investments. I know some of the companies you follow like Alexco, Kirkland Lake, Pretium, and Klondex…..so that’s a solid group.

  23. On October 14, 2015 at 3:13 pm,
    silverbug dave says:

    Sometimes these don’t work out but the standard point and figure chart for gold shows a possible $1320 target.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$GOLD

    • On October 14, 2015 at 9:20 pm,
      Brian says:

      Dave
      I know NOTHING about P&F charts.
      It would be great if you could keep us (KER) apprised of any changes, and perhaps teach us a thing-or-two?
      Brian

    • On October 15, 2015 at 9:18 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks for the charts Silverbug Dave

      • On October 15, 2015 at 9:37 am,
        Matthew says:

        Using Dynamic (ATR) Scaling, the objective is 1311.96
        http://scharts.co/1NJFrmA

        • On October 15, 2015 at 9:38 am,
          Matthew says:

          Based on percentage scaling (1% per box), the objective is 1353.17
          http://scharts.co/1KbEH1V

          • On October 15, 2015 at 9:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The 1347 noted on that chart is the one I want to see taken out on a breakout. Then 1382. Then I’m a PM bull for the next cyclical run for 3-5 years.

          • On October 15, 2015 at 10:01 am,
            Matthew says:

            Two monthly closes above the 55 month EMA (currently 1276) is all I need:
            http://schrts.co/Q7Bxqf
            Even two monthly closes above the 13 month EMA (currently about 1182) would be a first since 2012.

          • On October 15, 2015 at 10:25 am,
            Excelsior says:

            We are getting much closer to the time frame where the PM cyclical bear should be running out of steam now officially over 4 years into it. I have some positions on (although I trimmed a few back today into the strength), but am waiting to go balls to the walls until I see if the tired bear takes one last swipe at the PM markets over the balance of 2015. If we do get one final leg down like Doc, Avi, and Jordan mentioned then I’m loading up. This recent action did seem a bit different though and I’ve been very impressed with Gold & Silver and even the PGMs.

        • On October 15, 2015 at 9:42 am,
          Matthew says:

          Those are breakout objectives. If we use reversal objectives we get 1328.78 and 1326.49, respectively and Dave’s becomes 1329.

          All sound good to me.

  24. On October 14, 2015 at 5:58 pm,
    Agatha says:

    Al, you were favoring doc for weeks…. NOW you are on Garys side……..

  25. On October 15, 2015 at 2:21 am,
    Skeeta says:

    So Gary,
    you are now 99.9% sure that the bottom is in for gold?
    How many % were you previously when you have called the final bottom in gold?…SEVERAL TIMES….have you forgotten?
    Your previous “The train is leaving the Station” calls have not been forgotten by all….let’s face it…..they’ve been numerous afterall
    When I read some are in 85% now on your final bottom call it worries me somewhat.
    You are leading them like lambs to a slaughter.

    But anyhoo……you will always have manipulation to fall back on
    Just like you always have previously.

    TOOT TOOT…..the final bottom for the gold train is once again going on the wrong direction Gary !

    When it comes to calling final gold bottoms on the gold train….sorry mate.

    ….you will be known as only a Caboose.
    Cheers.

    • On October 15, 2015 at 5:05 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      “Tracks of my tears”……….song Smokie Robison 1965

  26. On October 15, 2015 at 7:57 am,
    Wiseguy says:

    I’ll admit. I started shorting too early. I sold my JDST today (luckily) at 22.60 after averaging down at the close yesterday, and recovered some of my losses. Armstrong adjusted his temporary gold top to be the first week in November. I’m tempted to jump into some miners now, but it really could start pulling back any time now. Gold is already up against the upper bollinger bands, and overbought on Ultimate Oscillator and near overbought on 14 day RSI. I may pick up some miners on the pullback (for a short term trade). 1300 is wishful thinking IMO, though.

    Matthew, I held Sibanye over my week I was out of town and sold it after returning at a short loss. I checked yesterday and it was up about 60% from that point. X-P

    • On October 15, 2015 at 8:08 am,
      Matthew says:

      Good job Wiseguy! And I thought my gains were good… 😐

    • On October 15, 2015 at 11:49 am,
      A Listener says:

      X-P??