Looking forward to the jobs number – What will move and will it matter?
Gary Savage is back to recap what he thinks what will happen with the jobs report tomorrow and how it will impact the markets. We then move into gold and gold stocks.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Dan Norcini made a great comment:
As the yields move higher, gold is moving lower. Nothing sinister – no “malevolent force” as Dennis Gartman foolishly suggested the other day in which he played the gold cult card for his own misreading of the charts on some evil, sinister gold cartel attack, etc. Look, any time any trader is on the wrong side of a move, he is always tempted to blame it on something other than his own analysis. But that is something we expect novice traders to do, not seasoned pros like Mr. Gartman.
Or you could just trade in hindsight a week after the move has already happened. Trader Terry/ Mary Smothers/ JJ
He’s like a cockroach. You just can’t kill him 🙂
+1, look out some like his blather………
referring to gartman of course…………..
Ha Ha, perfect description of that poor guy. I have a few people I look down on, he made the list.
Traitor Dan, maybe?
Terry you just gave yourself away…have fun w Norcini..
it’s just an interesting quote, norcini was a sinclair disciple for years now has gone 180…not a good trader, just another newsletter guy (they are a dime a dozen, always right, but never really make any money for people).
as for the cockroach comment, FU, because I have no idea why the personalized trash talk, but can see that this is a tight group of same minded people not interested in anything but similar thinking. that’s cool, good luck all
bye,bye……………
thunderbolt, and thunderbird……………………….terry and tweedy
just having fun ………….have a great day……………….
I have to disagree with Gary; I do not believe that Terry is really JJ. In fact, I think Terry Smythe is his real name.
I see nothing wrong with the guy, he has an opinion, but, he must respect others that have an opinion……….just saying………
My belief that he is who he claims to be is separate from any personal opinion about him, positive or negative.
got ya, …………
or I should say……I understand what you are saying……….
Hope you hang around Terry,
Cheers.
Me too…………..
Guys please make new commenters welcome on this site!! Terry did not attack anyone directly and brought a valid point to the table. Even if you are just joking let’s all play nice. Sometimes typing can come across very different than if we are all chatting…
In fact Terry is correct when he says that some people here do not want to hear the other side… You do not have to believe it but that does not mean you have to attack it.
We continue to say – please respect other people’s comments.
I hope I did not hurt Terry. I simply cannot show any respect for Trader Dan. I don’t want to go against my conscience.
I did not mention Terry in my posts even once.
Amen, Cory!
wrong old wise one…….better read all the comments…………
If, you read all the comment, including the other day, we have mentioned that terry, is welcome to his opinion , no problem. IF, he is been in the business for 30 yrs and a floor trader, he has been use to others opinion and thoughts. There are always two sides to every argument. With that said…….TERRY IS WELCOME and should stay at the site and bring his thoughts and expertise.
I remember the guy. He was bullish when gold was 1900, especially on the days when gold was moving up. He change his opinion quicker than changing underwear.
I think he was Eric King and Jim Sinclair’s buddy when the gold price was high and changed side when gold came under ~1500. A cheap soul.
Yep you are right.
smelly shorts………………lol
I don’t think people will take people like that seriously, either longs or shorts. No integrity.
Dollar has already slightly broken out of it’s bull flag formation and with ECB recent QE has weakened euro and strengthened $. Everyone is bearish on the dollar from what i hear and NO ONE EXPECTS dollar to make a new high. Watch this. $ will break out, which will bring gold to it’s final low around 1030-960. Flag height is 20 so even 120 on USD is possible. If i were cartel this is what i would manipulate via Dragi ECB. Where everyone thinks gold has bottomed and dollar has topped i would deliver the final blow to gold bugs. Gary may be right and gold will rally tomorrow on the report but it will top out at 1125-1140, 1160 at best and then we will start brutal brutal wave 3 of 5 in gold to the final low. Gary’s cycles confirms that as well. Check out below link on different view.
Dollar bull flag break out
http://thedailygold.com/precious-metals-video-market-update-13/
Clive on dollar
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1446398575.php
Here is another perspective on Gary’s Daily and Intermediate cycles. This aligns well with Elliot wave 3 of 5 of C. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1446652433.php
Shure !
Gee, why didn’t you write this three weeks ago when gold was close to $1200? Why do you only come out of the woodwork once gold is down almost $100? Funny how all you guys are the same, you only cheer something when it is already shooting up and you bash things when they have already dumped down.
+1 & lol…
100 is nothing!!! Wave 3 down in gold from $1500 was 400 down in total. I’m a bull and we will bounce soon but this bounce will be weak ii up and then brutal iii of 5 of C will take hold. I know me talking like that makes a bottom as this is extreme bearishness coming out of me so yes i agree we bounce to 1160 at most but that is where Gary’s bounce tops and we go into HIS INTERMEDIATE DECLINE. GARY IS AWESOME BUT HE’S TOO EARLY
The experts were calling for a new bull market with such a small move up which barely shows at all on a weekly chart. Dead cat bounces are all that will happen until next summer when it might be the final bottom near 800.
RGLD, one of the best royalty companies, is getting creamed today. I bought it 5 years ago at 42 and watched it soar to 100, but never sold. Today it fell 7 to 39, so I doubled down and will get a 2.2% dividend till it soars again one day. Anyone else like RGLD today?
I’ve never desired holding it until today. It’s looking very tempting. What say you on RGLD, Matthew?
RGLD is not not one I follow but it does look appealing to me here, very close to book value (which is $36.18). According to YCharts, its Fundamental Score is a very good 8 out of 10 and it is 40% undervalued based on historic multiples (should be trading at $67).
In addition, it is now oversold on the weekly chart.
I agree with Gary’s take on gold and have been buying back a lot of miners. I have had several orders filled today so far.
Here’s one of the best looking charts in the entire sector:
http://schrts.co/kM8BFa
+1
Claude is looking very strong, is it a buy at these levels? My plan was to buy at 0,65 -0,70.
But i doubt it will go under 0,70 cad.
Claude is still very cheap and I firmly believe that it still has huge upside in the big picture, but you should wait if you think gold is going much lower. I do not believe that it is, fwiw.
Claude has a date with P/E=12+
For starters…
I can’t believe Gary is, yet again, recommending that y’all sell me, the King, Dollah, that is!
Broken-clock syndrome Monsieur le Savage. Haven’t you learned your lesson pickin’ on poor lil’ol’ me? I’m counting 6 or 7 years you been calling a top in me. Not yet, sir,.. not quite yet.
I’m not trading the currencies at all right now. I’m just saying that the euro is extremely stretched in its daily cycle and the employmenbt report tomorrow could trigger a trend change.
Hui targets 80 in final washout
It’s not an ICL until everyone starts to freakout and crazy downside numbers start to pop up. We should start hearing $600 & $800 gold forecasts anytime now just like we did at the July bottom.
LOL….Gary no one says it’s gonna happen NOW. The daily cycle has bottomed but daily cycle up will top in 1 week and then your IC will take over and form left translated cycle. Dollar is hinting that right now. You’re totally ignoring the dollar.
Max,
Normally I would be in that camp as well, but a lot of things are suggesting this is the ICL forming now.
Sentiment is still at 40% bulls. This will need to be cleared to zero on this wave down in order to bull to take over.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=8&id=p84881886797&a=216349775&listNum=12
Max,
Just so you know the bullish percent has nothing to do with sentiment. It’s a measure of how many stocks are trading above their point and figure chart trend lines. It’s an overbought/oversold indicator.
Howdy – just woke up – 4:00 am here in the land of Wa – wife’s asleep so can’t listen to the recording yet … BUT I see that the 2 hr chart of UUP shows strong neg divergence, and so it looks like Gary’ll be right that GLD bounces at tomorrows jobs report.
I agree. While UUP’s weekly chart looks pretty great, the daily makes me think that the breakout is a bull trap.
If you’re holding a big miners position overnight into this jobs report, you’re flat out gambling. It could either washout or pop huge.
The only thing Gary has really called dead right is the stock market. I hope that is the majority of your portfolio. He’s been whipsawed all year on gold/miners, especially during that summer washout. I was pounding the table for the post Christmas tax loss season rally last year, but he missed that too.
I am holding a large miners position right now and will hold overnight. 😮
Daniel,
If I’ve been whipsawed then how come the SMT metal portfolio is up 15% so far this year?
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/11/smt-portfolio-update-2.html
The cockroaches are out in force today.
I have a feeling that Friday morning will see a big smackdown in gold to get it under 1100 bucks. It seems obvious does it not?
Yep. I have the same feeling. Typical scenario.
ditto……typical scenario
I’m going against the herd..Gold up tomorrow.
oops………………..
Any bets on how long before the jobs report those in the know will know? 😉
Silver has made a trip under 15 already. Stops were flushed out. I am sure someone is working hard on gold as well.
Wrong place, sorry.
Silver has made a trip under 15 already. Stops were flushed out. I am sure someone is working hard on gold as well.
Work harder.
Finally just now listened to Gary/Cory’s chat.
I don’t know what will happen next of course, but when I look at monthly and weekly charts of the S&P, it looks like we’re in a backtest before a huge fall.
And while gold is down, and while we may get that bounce, COT (plus some good analysts writing about COT) has me kinda scared that we may get another drop down to $1000 or so.
Again I don’t know, and will just do my best to follow.
just to be clear – I do agree w/Gary that the short term TA indicators are showing that GLD and GDX will bounce here – and FXE and UUP confirm this to me – so as a trade I think it’s correct what Gary’s saying … just mid-term, after this bounce, COT is showing that we may bet one more big push down.
Trading this is hard. Since mid-July, we’ve gone down and up, and then down and then up, and now down – overall sideways. I’m standing down. This is too much for me. I need a clear trend, and buy on the dip, type world. The only chart I like right now is the monthly $GOLD, and it’s still on a sell signal for me.
My takeaway from Gary’s interview today: The reward-to-risk is pretty good for a traceable entry for PM miners. I somewhat expect a V-shaped drop (either overnight, or, as the job numbers are released) but then an up-side reversal. If not (i.e., I am wrong) and the PMs plummet once again, I will sell all my trading shares and take a couple months off.
There is the potential for huge damage to the miners tomorrow since the jobs report comes out before the stock market opens. If they gap down huge at the open, I too will likely get the hell out of dodge since the chart will literally go from just a correction, to breakdown at that moment. Sure they will bounce, and probably hard, but the technical damage will have been done.
Given the dog whippings miners have been subjected to over the last 4.5 years, I would not be shocked in the slightest if we did gap down massivley at the open.
Personally I would rather buy into a gap down than sell into one. Gaps usually get filled.
The cycle count and weekly chart are too messed up for me to risk further damage. It may be we gao down and close positive, but we need a huge day tomorrow to salvage the weekly chart, IMO. If the miners proceed to take off next week, so be it.
+1 Gary
Buying at a new, local low in gold or GDXJ or JNUG seems easy (there are so many opportunities); selling for profit seems MUCH harder ( I ALWAYS hold WAY after the local top is reached). Sigh.
Well here is your chance to buy the huge gap down.
*traceable = trade-able
Bubba is bullish on gold still.
See Kitco interview at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-_lBDgR9DI
Weekly $GOLD *must* hold 1097.70, or else we’re going lower to 1072.30.
If that fails, I think Gary’s original call of 1030 gold is next.
We need a gap up open and huge pop in gold tomorrow to salvage the weekly chart, IMO. If we just continue down tomorrow, the weekly candle will be hideous. And while we may get a bounce next week, it will be neigh impossible to break the downward momentum on the weekly chart.
I don’t recall seeing gold’s full stochastics this oversold on the daily chart in the last 5 years. Maybe at the low in July ’13, but I would have to go back and look. Absolutely crazy stuff.
****** IT’S JUST ONE SCHEME AFTER THE OTHER THAT’S KEEPING THIS COUNTRY GOING! ******
EVEN IF THE JOBS NUMBERS COME IN BAD TOMORROW and they will, GOLD WILL RISE, and afterwards they will beat it back down! The whole system is fake, phony and false now!
ditto
Garry needs to start reading Martin Armstrong to realize where we are going with gold and the dollar. Mr Armstrong’s weekly gold arrays indicate we go down to the first benchmark low in gold which will be around the first week in December. The second is April 2016. Gold, Silver and the miners must be completely Annihilated to form the final low. We are not there yet.
Really !
Ok I’ll go check on my Commodore 64 what Socrate and Pi have to say
about the gold price at the Comex in april 2016 …
Few years ago, the program said that gold would move to $5,000+ per ounce
in 2016. Maybe someone modified something on his computer.
I don’t know about Armstrong but Biggus’ premise has some validity.
Is that Biggus Dickus from ‘Life of Brian’?
Sorry Biggus – didn’t realise that there was a poster on here with the nickname of Biggus. No offence meant.
It now seems that gold will have another leg down to the bottom of the ending
diagonal (1030-1050) but we should have a bounce before.
After that, it should go up ,,, usually breaking out ot the diagonal.
But the FED and Central Banks benefit from a printing press… Easier to print paper
than gold !
Okay, guys; Claude will probably move down to $.60-$.65 sometime in December.
Wonderful news, it means im gonna buy in december😄😄
Thanks Doc👌🏼
Morris doesn’t appear to agree doc…
Nov 06 Gold Stocks: Volume Tells The Story Morris Hubbartt 321gold
***** DEATH NAIL AHEAD: FRIDAY JOBS NUMBERS WILL BE DOWN BIG! ******
GOLD WILL RISE………and you fools will rejoice, only to see gold taking back down in the next session!……………….IT’S ALL RIGGED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t know why ?
But posters who constantly scream manipulation in capital letters with extreme use of exclamation marks (to emphasize their waffle) remind me of that old Motorhead song “Back at the funny farm”.
http://www.metrolyrics.com/back-at-the-funny-farm-lyrics-motorhead.html
……enjoy the rubber room guys when we get the final capitulation in gold.
Gabriel. The site you have posted, claiming what Armstrong’s wrote have got his message completely wrong. He was making fun of the gold bugs who have been claiming yet another low earlier this year with a rocket pointed North.
Gold will have its time but its not now.
Holter is on the case of the futurologist:
http://www.jsmineset.com/2015/11/03/ocean-front-property-in-arizona/
,,, and a new one.
http://www.jsmineset.com/2015/11/06/a-tool-a-fool-or-rewriting-history/
Holter gets it exactly right, except I’m surprised that it required this latest piece to finally change his mind about Armstrong. I had to start ignoring Armstrong a long time ago, as so many red herrings pop up in his shrill polemics.
Armstrong’s problem isn’t one of intellect, but character, imo.
++1
Looking at the context in Armstrong’s article, the meaning of paragraph DOES NOT fit the context. The idea is that all assets crash versus money at time of crisis. He said that gold was money in the 30s so everything drops against it in the 30s. Now gold is no longer money, we would expect gold to drop against “money”, which is fiat currency now, until the confidence is lost. I have no problem with this statement because he covered his rear end by saying “until confidence is lost”. However, the quoted paragraph negates all of these. I feel Martin is somehow awkward at expressing himself, not sure intentional or not. When he was bullish on gold, he was different person. It is why I read his work much less now. The wordings are very often twisted and contradict each other, then they hurt my brain. One fact Martin neglected is that when gold is money, you cannot print it. Now when paper is money, so the outcome can well be different. It is likely and it did happen, when the crisis comes, fiat money will be printed like there is no tomorrow. The increased amount of money will overwhelm the crashing effect of all asset. It is to say, the asset price will rise in term of currency due to the flood of the fiat money showing up in the system.
GH…thanks for saying “Holter gets it exactly right”……….maybe TRADER TERRY could debate you…………………..he,he,ha,ha,……..
Bix Weir……..has some added comments , which confirms HOLTER……..
Doc.
When the low in Gold is in the mid tier miners like Claude will rise the most initially with the junior explorers later.
************ WEEEEEEEeeeeeee EVERYBODIES WORKING! HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN! ************
Oh look gold tards getting savaged again!
Isn’t it great!!!!!!!!!!
Not for long…………comex will have a FAILURE TO DELIVER…………SOON.
by the way………..wtf…….is a gold tard……………
The opposite of paperbug buffoon shit-for-brains. 😉
🙂
2016 will be the low for commodities and the PMs.
Doc , seriously nobody can predict manipulation. It is one man with unlimited money. It does not fit statistic rules.
Can anybody say DUST?
Good news came out today from US Payrolls Report. Oct jobs were up and so were wages.
So now the market expects the Fed to finally raise interest rates in December. Gold dropped in response.
However, a strong US dollar and higher interest rates can become toxic for many countries in emerging markets, many of whom are just hanging on to financial stability by their fingernails.
Defaults anyone?
Nothing to brag about when it comes to the payrolls report. 271k looks like a good number on the outset, but compare it with the 94 million outside the labor force, and your excitement is quickly dampened. But I do agree with you that the Fed’s chances of pulling the rate trigger in December are mighty high. I wont hold my breath, though.
Another prospect. Higher dollar hurts US exporters the most. This is one reason why US has lost a lot of manufacturing in the past 30 years.
GLDX sitting on fork support:
I doubt that the slow sto has ever been so oversold.
Problem is, it could stay oversold for a while.
I do expect some sort of sharp bounce up soon, but that may be literally a one day spike that is reversed intraday.
I don’t think I am going out on a limb that the miners will see new all time lows if the Fed pulls the trigger in December. Heck they may get there next week.
They have been priced for bankruptcy for a couple of years now, and it looks like many will be wiped out completely. And I am not talking about junior miners. Major names.
Gold (GLD) is oversold:
Ending Diagonal …
Sellers look like they are exhausted. After the smash, nothing on my top 10 gold list is down more than %3. This might be the “market event” Gary talked about? We will see!
Crap the HUI is at 108.68 now.
For sure gold will bound, and there is a chance it could bounce strongly. But I think the more realistic scenario is a short duration bounce to take us out of severe oversold and then a massive drop down.
While I am squarely in the camp of gold bulls, over the next 6 months things could be thrown on their head, especially if the Fed raises rates.
About two weeks ago, I said: “A [weekly] slow sto sell would most likely cause a big selloff but in that event, the MACD might just narrow while the previous low holds -thereby not completely destroying the bigger picture bullish potential.”
——–
That has now occurred, complete with the MACD narrowing (not yet selling). If gold closes below 1093.30 it will be the lowest weekly close in many years.
Here’s GLD (since the gold chart won’t update until after the close):
The weekly parabolic SAR for gold just flipped to short while GDX remains long:
Spankz,
Food for thought indeed!
The miners have the potential for an inverse H&S bottom. Could they diverge from gold here? Since markets are forward-looking and shares will be hard to get once the turn is obvious, I think so.
You are dreaming. Don’t get me wrong, we are incredibly oversold, but we were oversold yesterday too–the most in at least 5 years. So I expect a decent bounce within a few days. But again, from what level? I expect next week the chart painters may want to keep the notion of an inverse h&s alive, but I just don’t see how the miners don’t make new lows. There is literally nothing in their favor now in the short run except oversold oscillators, which in a bear market are fairly meaningless.
We will see.
If we make a higher high on gdx before making new lows, I will never post here again, at least under this alias, lol.
The character of this decline remains very different than all the others of the last few years. I have several juniors that aren’t down at all today and those that are, are down on extremely low volume. Dumb money appears to have been completely wrung from the kind of juniors that I like most.
Matthew look at Hubbartt on 321 now—hes saying what you are
what is the SAR..?
The bottom in gold and the miners will be a v shape bottom. Mark my words. Look at a very long term chart like the barrons gold.mining index. There is no sideways action or rounded bottoms. It is literally straight up and straight down.
In the big picture, what we have now is V enough:
http://schrts.co/tdf6fa
$XAU:$GOLD suggests that I am probably not “dreaming” about the potential for the miners to diverge bullishly from gold.
The miners need to quintuple in gold value just to reach 2007 levels.
Looooooooong live the King!!
Gary – when will you doubt me next? I’ll be waiting with yet another piece of humble-pie 🙂 Look for a top some time this 1/2 century or if the Republicans take the White House.
I am also a strong strong believer that black candle are bearish and represent distribution. See the weekly candle gdx a few weeks ago as an example. I expect that if price goes immediately higher, the black candle is no different than a gap, and there is a typically a retracement below the black candle.
$silver has a tiny black candle at $14.50 on the daily chart back on Oct. 1. These are incredibly rare on the futures charts for gold and silver. I was always weary about it but never mentioned it, hoping this time would be different. I fully expect that black candle to be taken out within the next few weeks, if not much sooner.
A true, lasting bottom will be completely devoid of these black candles, IMO.
Claude Resources: Nice to see a mining company move up on improved fundamentals. Still a ridiculously low P/E, compared to other pure Canadian/US junior PM producers. Claude should be more than a $US1.00 stock price.