Long term charts show the gold chart as more corrective than anything
Rick Ackerman and Cory focus on the precious metals with a longer term view of the charts. With the recent breakdown in the daily chart it is easy for investors to turn bearish again if we take a look at the monthly chart Rick argues that the move is mover corrective. We wrap it with the question of if silver will fall below $14/oz.
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I’m gone repeat what I said yesterday:
From an EW perspective:
The decline of gold from 1921 to 1073 is only a double zig-zag correction (W-X-Y).
If this count is correct, wave c of Y is incomplete.
It appears to be taking the form of an ending diagonal.
According to this count, gold has still one more bottom left to make .
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uu3r8iyO/
And don’t forget that we can have a truncation of the fifth wave …
Could be, but that still won’t change the corrective nature of this cyclical bear.
We’re on the same page Matthew.
Sorry, I should’ve known!
It should have zigged where it zagged! Manipulation!
double zig zag? that’s a new one for me.
Whats it called should gold hit 800?
Sorry Gabriel just double zig zag sounds like a winner.
Don’t you just love the kind of arrogance that only the ignorant possess? 😐
Matthew you’re doing a good job.
I think I have enough.
I don’t blame you. Get a load of the b.s. below. LOL…
Guys, no offence and to itch his own and all, but didn’t Listener recently mention “good luck with silver”? and holding a long position going into the employment report was risky to say the least, on the other hand nothing wrong with gambling.
Is it possible you guys got yourselves so wrapped up in double topping zig zaggy translation to languages you can believe, that your missing the forest for the trees?
Ya really don’t need a fork to see gold is having trouble moving up.
Sure, gold could surprise 100 to the upside but that would be a surprise.
A slow down moving shortage in metal perpendicular left hilly ski jump pattern would not be too much of a surprise at this point.
Guys, gold is risky until we hit the elusive as a sasquatch bottom, long or short.
And even if we do hit this 800 bottom it gets even more risky as 400 comes into play at that point.
Sounds like your getting yourselves sorta wrapped in a confusion.
Sounds kinda tin foil hatish even. Just sayin.
BB, what’s happening here is some of these guys are getting ruined holding long side bets during one of the fiercest gold price declines in ages. When they lash out you only need to understand that some of them are also in high leveraged bets that have turned very sour.
You rarely (if ever) hear them talking about hedging exposure so basically they are getting their knackers kicked with a steel toed boot and they are pretty pissed about it.
The mood will improve substantially once gold moves back up this week or next and then they can all return to the usual “NYA–NYA–NYA, we told you so” comments and other juvenile antics that all 8 year olds enjoy.
I am starting to think Doc is right that gold will be destroyed if there is actually a rate hike in December. You know, today we were within 87 bucks of 1000 dollars. There is more than enough time for gold to go sub – 1000 by year end and its hardly improbable given this recent sell-off and the extreme bearishness unfolding. Everyone just assumes we will stop out at 1150 and 1130 but there is no guarantee we stay at those numbers for long. A rate hike will cut the nuts off precious metals.
Thx Listener, but I do understand Mathew and followers position, I was merely trying (what I thought) was gently trying to get them to see another viewpoint.
Anyway, gold could tank here? Ya think?? lol
Gold is risky here, betting up or down. Its on a precipice.
Doc is absolutely correct (imo) gold gets hammered with a rate hike.
On the other hand, its getting hammered anyway. lol
But this just flts into Ricks $800 scenario.
All that’s happening is this long term play is playing out.
Notice now, Doc has begun to say that bounces should be weak and quicker than in the past.
(lost interest in gold)
The REAL question, do we drop to $400 from $800 or begin the most awesome bull in any of our lifetimes?
To me, all else is pretty much meaningless. But Im not really a trader.
Doc could very well be right, 2016 doldrums could be the low.
Makes complete sense to me anyway.
Proving both Rick and Doc to be correct, at that time I expect Chris to be recommending more gold stocks and Gary to be saying THE low cycle has been completed.
Oh, and everyone will be a genius again. lol, at least those still living.
No bb, I don’t think gold will tank here. Right now I am betting on a rise that began today. I was just saying that come mid December it is possible gold gets a hammering again if the Fed does indeed hike rates. So far that’s the formula we are being trained on as these big declines are happening in concert with comments from Ms Yellen and her peers. General equities are also under pressure though. Guess we will see what December brings.
I think it’s an upside-down translated, gossenflopper doo-hickey in the 7th lateral degree of Jupiter, though it could be in the 3rd inning of a symmetrical barf.
Ask your colleague Avi.
He predicted the top in 2011. He will certainly explain it to you.
+1 😉
nice
I think you might be on to something here Chris.
When the gossenflopper and the doo-hickey both converge I am going long the market 100%.
I know it makes sense.
Right Bob, Al the sense in the world. (The insane world)
That is great Mr T!
laughing …very nice Chris.. you made my day…3rd inning….. v good
good chart Gabriel – That’s similar to the way I’m looking at things. Thanks.
Funny stuff Matthew. Rick did not say the decline *is* corrective based on the monthly chart. What he said was the decline “looks* corrective which is another thing entirely. He also said it was doubtful the recent lows would hold suggesting steeper declines are coming.
In other words, the jury is still out so we can neither call this a secular or cyclical decline factually without knowing where the final bottom resides. Until then the debate is mostly personal opinion.
I can tell you though that if Ricks 810 low is hit that we can end this debate once and for all because that is unquestionably going to represent a secular bear bottom. If we fall to that 2008 low of 680 even you won’t be posting here anymore.
Basically, any price lower than half the peak price is not merely corrective anymore.
Tell yourself whatever you need to buddy. Gary also knows that gold is still in a secular bull. Go have a listen.
I guess you also think miners are in a cyclical bear.
Hahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!
🙂
You should learn the difference between a cyclical and secular trend before you concern yourself with what I think about which one we’re in. 😉
ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha……….good one matthew………post some music to calm him down.
Cute that you put the winky face in although it mostly distracts from a legitimate point here that you are constantly avoiding. The question you did not answer was whether you believe gold miners are in a secular or cyclical bear market.
Even you should be able to understand that difference although we can never be certain since your endless bullishness clouds your judgement. Were you not the one loading up on gold longs so very recently while the smart money was getting short?
Now go ahead….you can drink up more of that Kool-Aid of yours.
Enjoy!
Legitimate point? Where?
Just answer the question.
GDXJ:GDX continues to telegraph good things ahead for the sector.
http://schrts.co/Z6vqcy
Is that the same telegraph you have been using since 2011 by any chance?
GDX at fork support (the blue one is based on closing prices):
Where are we at with silver Matthew?
The silver ETF, SLV, precisely filled the rest of its 9/16 gap today and is oversold:
Thank you! The chart work is very helpful
You’re welcome. Here’s another that shows SLV back-testing the downtrend line (blue) that it broke out of on 10/2 (in my post above, I should have mentioned the huge 10/2 gap that got filled today, too):
Wonder what the leverage is now on comex, the crime watch……….OVER 300 to 1…
Frank, Im not sure it makes any dif what the leverage at the comex is, they trade paper, no?
Now, if you said there was some kind of leverage at the sge, that could be interesting.
It depends on whether shorts can refuse delivery demand by the longs.
Does not seem to at this moment………..only, until the deliver is required,….and HOLIDAY SEASON and gold demand increase chances of a default by comex.
I think they will be bailed out except the final cash settlement. It seems they there is so little physical withdraw from Comex. This is so strange since taking delivery or not should depend on longs not shorts. If I want to withdraw metal, I cannot be refused.
Few seem to pay attention to this possible default by comex.
Thank you Matthew-
You hear that Bird Listener? The last four years have been corrective. As I’ve said all along, 2011 was NOT like 1980. Those who think it was are absolutely wrong.
In other news, the middle of a little modified Schiff fork seems to be providing GDM a little support today:
http://schrts.co/h6OHxK