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Gary asks why the market is not panicking.

Big Al
November 16, 2015

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Given the events in Paris during the past few days, we ask why the securities markets in the U.S. are not showing any signs of panic.

Discussion
57 Comments
    Nov 16, 2015 16:23 AM

    those power-to-be people just push those buttons and make things happen, the %#$%$#

    Nov 16, 2015 16:23 AM

    LIKE DUH………

    Nov 16, 2015 16:24 AM

    The Chinese are buying lots of gold here when they come on holiday said the girl at the mall today. I purchased a small amount today.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:39 AM

    Hmmm… in whose favor does this ‘terror’ go to…in order to organize…
    Mr Temple…??? Mr Moriarty…??

    Nov 16, 2015 16:40 AM

    got this email from Dr Weiss today:

    Dear Robert,

    Irving Weiss in his early 20s and his son, Martin Weiss, now 69.
    In 1928, when my father first went to work on Wall Street, he warned his clients about a new and dangerous scourge about to strike the U.S. economy and financial markets — deflation.
    Today, I’m warning you again.
    The similarities between then and now are striking: Massive, devastating declines in the price of commodities like copper, foods, grains and energy. Booming stock prices. And a gaping disconnect between the two that seemed to defy all logic.
    But it’s the big differences between now and then that have me worried the most — especially when it comes to the role the U.S. government plays in the economy.
    Compare key facts about then and now, and you’ll see what I mean …
    Federal debt: When my father first warned of deflation’s potential impact in 1928, the total debt of the U.S. government was just $17.6 billion. Today, it’s over $18.6 trillion — over one thousand times more.
    Federal spending: Back then, the federal budget was less than $3 billion. In 2015, it’s $3.7 trillion — also more than one thousand times more.
    Even taking into consideration the huge growth in the U.S. economy over the past nine decades, the size of government today is far, far larger:
    Federal debt: In 1928, the national debt was less than 17% of GDP. Today, it’s over 100%.
    Federal spending: In 1928, the government spent less than 3% of GDP. Today, it spends over 21%.

    And even these shocking comparisons grossly understate how the government has grown:
    Federal debt: When my father was a young man, Social Security, Medicare and veterans’ benefits didn’t exist. There were virtually no entitlements. So the federal government’s financial obligations were limited almost entirely to the funded federal debt. In contrast, today Washington is drowning in $127 trillion of unfunded liabilities, according to Forbes.
    Add those to the government’s debt load, and suddenly it’s 807% of GDP. In other words, the true federal debt balloon is over eight times larger than the entire U.S. economy.
    Federal spending: Robert Higgs, Senior Fellow in Political Economy for the Independent Institute, demonstrates how government spending makes up a far bigger chunk of the economy than official calculations seem to indicate.
    Using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the five years through 2014, he calculates that all types of federal government spending represented 35.8% of GDP.
    Further, if you compare it to a more relevant measure of the economy (personal consumption outlays), the government is responsible for a whopping 52.2% of the economy. Plus …
    “Even this,” he writes, “fails to indicate how great the government’s presence in our lives really is, however, because governments at every level impose a vast number of legal and regulatory requirements that must be met out of the people’s own resources.”
    Wayne Crews, Vice President for Policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, estimates that compliance with regulations costs Americans $1.863 trillion in 2013, or another 13% of GDP. Add this to the heap, and you can see how expenditures by or for the government are now close to two-thirds of the entire U.S economy.

    All this leads to two unmistakable consequences:
    Consequence #1. Uncle Sam as master puppeteer. The U.S. government now has such a supersized stake in the economy and so much to lose if things go sour, political leaders of all stripes have virtually outlawed failure of any kind, prompting them to manipulate markets like never before.
    For many years, their list of taboo events that “must never happen” included (1) another Great Depression, (b) big financial failures and (3) national bank runs.
    Now, on top of these, the Fed is attempting to counter (1) sharp stock market declines, (2) low inflation, (3) international market turbulence and (4) even normal, cyclical declines in the economy.
    But for Uncle Sam, it’s like quicksand. The more he struggles, the deeper he’s stuck.
    Consequence #2. Out-of-control corporate debt. During the Great Recession, in order to save the government from bankruptcy, the Federal Reserve felt it had no choice but to buy up the majority of government bonds offered for sale, while driving interest rates to nearly zero. This, in turn, opened the floodgates to corporate debt bubbles that are even larger than the federal debt bubble.
    Totally Unprecedented Convergence of Circumstances
    We have never seen anything like this before in U.S. history.

    Sure, we’ve had other periods when the U.S. government was up to its eyeballs in debt —during the American Revolutionary War when Benjamin Franklin borrowed money from the French … and again during World War II, when the U.S. government issued billions in war bonds.
    And yes, we’ve also seen periods of deflation — particularly the commodity deflation in the late 1920s and the financial asset deflation that followed.
    But what we’ve never seen — until now — is the convergence of huge government debts AND the real threat of deflation at the same time.
    This is absolutely critical for a number of related reasons:
    First, deflation makes it far harder for all borrowers, including the government, to pay off debts. They earn less income. They collect less in taxes. And as the value of each dollar owed goes up, the real burden of their debts looms larger and larger.

    Second, deflation can drive the economy into a vicious cycle of cutbacks. People learn to expect lower prices ahead. So they become far less willing to spend money at today’s higher prices. And the less they buy, the more prices go down.
    Third, nearly everything falls — corporate profits, personal income, and government tax revenues from both.
    Connect the dots and you’ll see how, suddenly and without warning, the government is squeezed in a massive vice.
    And you’ll see how deflation could directly threaten the great bubble of government debt that has accumulated over the decades.
    This head-on collision between deflation and debt is the grave danger we will face in the years ahead. And it’s the one economic certainty that most of today’s political leaders (and candidates) fail to grasp.
    Don’t fall into that same trap. Stay alert to the collision of deflation and debt. Understand how it can impact not only your investment portfolio, but nearly every asset you own, and nearly every kind of income that you count on.
    Stand by for more instructions. Then take action accordingly.
    Good luck and God bless!
    Martin

      Nov 16, 2015 16:20 AM

      interesting…………”corporate debt bubbles, larger than federal debt bubble”

        Nov 16, 2015 16:22 AM

        borrowers better get debt free………….

          Nov 16, 2015 16:23 AM

          BOBBY…..thanks for the report…………….j

            Nov 16, 2015 16:28 AM

            Yes Bobby and yes Frank – have just acquired a paid for house and a car free from finance…feel liberated!

            Nov 16, 2015 16:40 AM

            Most will never experience your joy………glad you are liberated……..

            Nov 16, 2015 16:07 AM

            I too became debt free about 4 years ago, Now i just live off my junk silver. As hard as I try, I still cannot find anyone to take it as barter. I guess I am buying the wrong things, like food, gas, electric power and fish bait.

            Nov 16, 2015 16:49 PM

            Bobby, seriously it sounds like you live a great life. No joke, man!

            Nov 16, 2015 16:41 AM

            Of course not, Bobby. Don’t expect anyone to barter for stocks or bonds either.

            Wages and taxes have to be paid in fiat currency, but more importantly, it will be a sign of THE top when the masses become so “enlightened.”

            Nov 16, 2015 16:05 PM

            Thanks Al, my true joy comes in raising my 4 year old grandaughter and 3 year old grandson who came to live with us 2 years ago.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:49 AM

    If as Gary suggests, the PTB are holding things up this morning………one thing for sure is that they had all weekend to plan their moves.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:12 PM

      I don’t get the impression that it was intervention propping up the markets. This bounce was clearly targeted at the end of last week, so I felt Cory’s comments seemed more on point in this interview.

      Last week in the S&P on Wednesday, it was teetering on the brink of breakout or breakdown. We were looking to see if $2069 on the S&P would fall, and when that level was taken out Thursday morning I posted that I went long volatility in TVIX and would hold until $2024 on the S&P (Avi Gilburt’s target for the first drop down). As a result, I sold out of my TVIX position completely on Friday near the close because we got down to $2023, and the target was reached. To see the markets recover today (regardless of the Paris event Friday night) was exactly what one would expect to see technically…..no intervention needed. Just a corrective bounce.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:00 AM

    For Rick, everything can be explained with market behavior. His vigilance level is set 0. Why do I have to listen to this since he will change his idea as fast as market and justify why it should crash when stock is nose diving?

      Nov 16, 2015 16:02 AM

      Oops, wrong session.

    bb
    Nov 16, 2015 16:32 AM

    I giggled a little bit when Gary says this terror attack was different because it was coordinated. 911 was forgotten in that statement.

    There have been many attacks that have been coordinated.

    Heck, when these attacks are analysed they end up being false flags, in other words, entirely coordinated.

    Cory, no defined target? Ask the U.S. government, Saudi or Qatar who they are paying, the payroll departments should be able to give a defined target list.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:53 AM

      Did market tumble after 911? I think Greenspan had to lower rate to stop the rout.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:10 AM

      bb – your intelligence appreciated..attacks bring political coup detats..

      Nov 16, 2015 16:00 AM

      BB,
      Yes and what happened to the stock market right after 911?

      Stocks really should have a panic day or two. It’s completely absurd that markets would rally this much with this much risk to global economies, especially if there is another attack soon.

        bb
        Nov 16, 2015 16:34 AM

        I agree with ya Gary, but we havnt seen gold affected by events for some time now.
        Markets don’t come crashing down when airliners get knocked down, or Malls in Africa get attacked etc, not sure why this Paris thing should affect markets either.

        Cathrine Fitts on sgt report has some interesting opinions in her interview.
        I thought Hudas and those military guys were the only ones wearing tin foil hats.
        Fitts explains the gold market and the markets in general, are just part of whats goin on.
        Crazy or not, it is an explanation as to whats happening.

          Nov 16, 2015 16:01 PM

          BB, I think you and Gary talk about two different things. Gary is thinking that some thing out of ordinary is supporting the market and suppresses gold. You think everything considered it is the way to be. I agree with both of you. But I would not consider everything happens a non event. Market is a combination of forces, some legitimate and some not.

            bb
            Nov 16, 2015 16:48 PM

            Sure Dragon, but isn’t is funny how some things just plain don’t mater anymore?
            I think the fed and their threats to raise interest rates is more of an affect than thousands dead, or the potential of it etc.
            Nobody cares, only thing people are interested in is cash, so, the only thing that matters is interest rate. lol

      Nov 16, 2015 16:59 PM

      What Cory meant is there is no official country of Isis.

      You second and third paragraphs above are scary!

    Nov 16, 2015 16:49 AM

    Big Al, you said: “the markets preview the future”. And I say: “the markets make the future.” You have to ask your self: What is more impacting? 150 died in Paris, or trillions of dollars collapse?

      Nov 16, 2015 16:56 PM

      I believe that we are both correct Mr. Endres!

    Nov 16, 2015 16:16 AM

    Anyone seen the latest installment of Ian Fleming’s James Bond ” Spectre ” also
    known as ” Special Executive for Counter-Terrorism Revenge and Extortion ” The story line got the concept right , however did not identify the real enemy ! Very entertaining ! Art does often imitate Life, or prophetically expresses the truth . The lines are likely much more distorted today than when Fleming, a former British S.A.S Officer created 007. God Help Us !

      bb
      Nov 16, 2015 16:36 AM

      Don’t worry about it Mike, ultimately they only need us a food.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:52 PM

      We saw it in Imax and really enjoyed it. Escapism? You tell me!

    Nov 16, 2015 16:55 AM

    How can Corey ask with a straight face why gold hasn’t continued lower??? It has been pummeled down a ridiculous number of days ina row! Does he really think prices move in a straight line, up or down?

      Nov 16, 2015 16:50 PM

      His time frame is different, Spanky.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:03 AM

    Also, way way too much emphasis is placed on a single day’s action by the hosts. Again, nothing moves up or down in a straight line. Can’t believe this has to be reiterated.

    We will find out in December what is up. I do expect the Fed to raise rates just to make the Peter Schiffs of the world look like idiots. They will buy whatever they need to buy to keep this rickety, corrupt system propped up. All but the biggest miners headed to bankruptcy and the commodity complex is headed 50% lower at least. Stock market to the moon.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:50 PM

      We talk with Gary, Rick, Chris and Doc because that is what most of our “family” wants!

    Nov 16, 2015 16:10 AM

    guess the ‘powers to be were busy in 2005 too? Three bombs went off at the same time in the London subway followed by a fourth on a triple decker bus, resulting in the death of 52 people and more than 700 injuries. The event took place before U.S. market open and while U.S. stocks initially gapped lower, they spent the rest of the session rallying to end higher by nearly +1%.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:53 AM

      guppy…..It was actually a double decker bus.

        Nov 16, 2015 16:06 PM

        thanks, that’s important to note

      Nov 16, 2015 16:48 PM

      thanks Jay. History really does repeat itself doesn’t it.

      The question now is that 2005 was ten years ago will the next tragedy by that far off? I personally don’t think so. Do you?

        Nov 16, 2015 16:51 PM

        No Al I don’t. But I also an not surprised the market is up today either 😉

          Nov 16, 2015 16:15 PM

          Agreed Guppy Jay. The bounce today was expected today when the S&P made the move down to $2024 (it actually went down to $2023) on Friday. That was Avi’s first target he mentioned on the show last week for the first dip down….and it was very accurate.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:53 AM

    The market has been supported by the central banks to make up for what happened in France as they can’t have the market fall and oil fall any further below 40. I had mentioned on Friday that oil is about to rally as xop was positive with oil down. I regret selling one of my oil positions too early today. Oil has been rallying during the night and attacked at 8 am every day for a number of days now.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:04 PM

      Is this event oil bullish? I thought if oil falls to the 20s can severely limit Russian’s capability to fight the war in middle east.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:55 AM

    The market has broken out above 2040 and should head to 2060 near the 200 day this week.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:26 PM

      I made it to $2053.19 today, so that seems reasonable to test the 200 day MA. But will it break out above it, or get deflected back down? I’m leaning towards it get getting deflected back down off $2060 because the markets still appear to be in the rounded top “dome” pattern, and the MAs may have just become resistance versus the support they have offered for so many years. We’ll see how the week plays out, but the markets still look heavy overall, and today was more of a relief rally in my opinion.

        Nov 17, 2015 17:33 PM

        Yep it got up just above $2060 and got swatted back down.

    cmc
    Nov 16, 2015 16:56 AM

    For those of us who stayed out of debt and saved money, deflation is our just desert — if we actually have deflation. But, everyone I look I see prices rising still.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:07 PM

      Like Rick Santelli said, deflation is the boogeyman. We need to hide the fact of inflation and get people anchored.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:13 PM

    You could not find anyone bullish on oil last week and the majority just got proven wrong. Now they are scrambling to cover.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:18 PM

    At least my S&P mutual fund is doing well today.

    Nov 16, 2015 16:37 PM

    The correction is over in stocks. Time to mortgage the trailer and go all in. The Dow transports will not be allowed to go any lower.

      Nov 16, 2015 16:31 PM

      spanky..already have a mortgage on the trailer and the bank tells me they won’t loan on the still in the back woods….time to exchange moon shine for shiny silver…

        Nov 16, 2015 16:29 PM

        Why would you want a loan on he still. That product is worth more than silver!

    Nov 16, 2015 16:43 PM

    According to Kitco:
    “DJIA 17,483.01 +237.77”

    Nov 16, 2015 16:06 PM

    COT’s for last week came out today. A large move out of the short position for both gold and silver but more for gold. Commercial contracts for gold went net long about 25,000 contracts while for silver about 10,000 contracts. This is encouraging from the standpoint of the bottom for the PMs sometime in December. Gold will see a new intraweek low in gold in December as talked about awhile back.

    Nov 17, 2015 17:51 AM

    Well, Doc Id like to ask you if you & yr technicals are ever not correct… does it ever not pan out the way you predict here….
    thank you