US equity markets, oil and gold
Rick Ackerman is up next this morning with comments on the possibility of US equity markets hitting new highs. We then move to the oil price which Rick has lower targets for and finally into gold. Gold is getting into a place where Rick is looking at bottom fishing.
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lol Bill, a while back you would have been run off for them thar fightin words around this place.
I figure 5% physical is a good thing, but to some people it really is a religion, maybe gold is in our dna somehow.
The bugs have taken cover lately but watch em crawl out of the woodwork when the price moves up.
Above about 1600 they refused to believe gold could get to around $1000 all the way down, well, here we are, now they refuse to believe we could go to $400.
$400 of course would close just about every mine there is, which might be exactly whats needed to start another bull.
Not sayin it will get to $400 but we shall see.
bb
I have no problem telling the truth or more importantly when I’m wrong.
Yes It took a while to sink in didn’t it.
Yes! every little rally they pop out like the bugs they are.
Nothing wrong with a bit of gold but you do have to trade it to get cost down and understand the BIG picture. Like when the shit really hits the fan Central bankers may sell some GOLD to raise cash NOT buy because their freaked out at the world blowing up.
The world borrowed a lot of USD and that creates a huge demand when its payback. Now they are buying dollars at a way higher price and its getting emerging economies into more trouble. Their the ones in serious shit. NOT the US.
It looks like the gold market in India may be going no bid like it did in April 2013 at 1500. bid at 1500-1550 was withdrawn and gold went to 1320 in 2 days.
Something tells me this could be happening again as of now. India has been the floor under the gold price practically for ever as far as I can see.
BB doesn’t know what he is talking about. Gold gonna go to 0.
Jason
Gold will not go to zero..Its has utilitarian value at the least and some hedging protection.
I could see $600-$800 but got knows when. It may have a mini bull before then.
Cheers and invest SAFE..
I laughed may ass at Moriarty when he said ” oh moneys flowing out of commodities and into the DOW and it was a dumb move”
Actually when serious recessions occur corporations slash hack and fire employees cutting cost. Then they get mean and lean VS being fat and lazy waist-full in the boom time.
The weak ones die and the strong take over. Earnings increase as business turns and people feel a bit better about spending…The stock market goes from fire sell panic to a new bull market and for years as we have witnessed. People missed out on the run of a lifetime while commodities collapsed thanks to Gold bugs and commodity gooks…
Here is a good article the discusses the $1065-$1064 target from Feb 5th, 2010 that I’ve been watching all year, and that we were discussing on yesterday’s Market Recap. So far, there was support found there last night in overseas trading in Asia/Australia, and today Gold hovered right above it and has moved up a bit higher to the $1071 area again.
________________________________________________________
Dollar pushes gold price to February 2010 low
Frik Els | November 17, 2015
http://www.mining.com/dollar-pushes-gold-price-to-february-2008-low/
Will Gold decide to move down through this support, and head for $1044.50, or will it break out above the congestion in the $1071-$1076 zone and start a relief rally?
Thus far, the $1065 support discussed previously did, in fact, hold up on Tues/Wed in overnight trading (as noted above). Today on Wednesday gold held above this support from $1066-$1068 in the morning, and then from $1069-$1072 in the afternoon. In overnight trading from Wed/Thursday Gold is around $1075 and got up to $1078.
Due to the strength in the miners towards the end of the day, it leads me to believe the relief rally has started in PMs for the short term. Silver is also so oversold it is getting silly, so it should catch up with Gold and likely will outperform if there is a short-covering rally.
We’ll see if things pick up the pace here, but it will be interesting to see if there is follow-through in the miners on Thursday.
Yep we got follow through in the PMs today and we are rallying as expected.
Cheers!
Any way. Best to all. We are heading to South America and I’m tired of banging my head here…
Not enough good long term views in my view. Gold should be traded with a bearish bias….Or buy something that’s in a bull market so you can sleep at night.
Maybe a trailer park!
Best to ALL.
But Moriarty. HE enjoys catching falling knives, pumping stocks in a bear market.
HEY He’s making a crap load on ADs. That is where the money is…selling picks and shovels…Study history folks..A broken clock for how many years? Bob you will get a rally….someday as everything does.
Levi Bob………..books and tapes……..money making machine…………lol
Bill, have a safe trip…….write when you get settled……………..
Cheers
and god luck. A spade is a spade no matter how you look at it 😉
SPX blew right through your target, Rick! Wow, it closed at 2083.58
I tell you Al, you wanna get ol’ Jon Nadler back on here for an I told you so session. I would _love_ to hear what he would have to say but he seems to have disappeared.
His gold call in early 2013 for lower prices was so correct it seems unbelievable now.
I look at comparisons to the 1980-1999 bear market levels:
Price 2011-2015 1980-1999
Top $1900 $850 Fix ($890 futures)
2nd top $1800 $700
Breakdown level $1520 $430 or so
1st major low $1180 $300
1st bear
market rally $1434? $500
Ratio is about 3:1
Maybe this points to:
Final low $750? $252.80
Ball park figure of course.
The more bullish view would be the gold action since 2000 is a larger and slower version of the 1971-1980 bulll market and this is the midterm correction.
the 1974-76 midterm correction was about 60% of the previous 1971-74 move.
If one argued for a similar retracement this time around (let’s say a 61.8% Fibonacci golden ratio retracement) then that would give $890 as the final low in gold as the dollar tops (if it does) in 2016. The timescale for the gold action is 2.5-3 times the length of the 1970s bull market so a 2 year correction in 1974-76 translates to a 56 year correction this time around. The the bull would resume and go to around $7000.
I am beginning to doubt this thesis though because I cannot see how the US dollar will be weak versus the Euro or Yen for many years.
I am leaning towards a decent gold rally once the dollar startes to move down a few years from now, maybe gold to $1500 with USDX moving back to 80. Then a second leg of the gold bear market as USDX goes to 140-160 in the late 2020s and gold to whatever, $600 by around 2030. A long slog like the 1980s and 1990s.
Silverbug Dave
I hope you sold all your silver years ago.
The so called super cycle is a load of crap. The latest bull market is nothing like the 70s. We did not have technology and a zillion idiots scamers on the net and that is the human spycology factor. The 70s had a nice washout keeping it alive. This bull we barly had a correction along the way and thats what was needed to cleans the excesses for a continuing healthy bull. Inflation today is a whole other story. Inflation is very low in the US. Commodities crashing and the dollar in a firm bull market is deflationary. I think….we see deflation with some inflationary bouts for some time.
It will take decades??? Guessing here but a long time for gold to surpass $1900.
Rick has my respect as I don’t think he is a gold bug and has a handle on whats happening.
I for one have gone against SOOOO many gold bugs that are clueless.
I knew new lows where coming in gold.
I’ve been buying solid DIV payers. One today pays 12% so its still the place to be in an unstable world when one needs a return in a ZIRP world. Most of the public that buy Gold know jack about it. I didn’t 18 years ago when I was buying it but have educated myself on the pitfalls. I called it a ponzi scheme as sorts as it requires more and more people to keep the bid up. Know one can predict the POG.
Here educate yourselves folks.
http://www.avaresearch.com/articles/1690/Mike-Stathis-Nails-The-Latest-Gold–Silver-Trade-Jan-feb-2015-Updated.html