Sorry for the grammar errors.

Yes, that sounds like a similar story to many Uranium investors that were making money in 2006-2011, and then the Fukushima event cleaned their clocks. I also lost quite a bit of money in 2011 after that event, because I was more stunned at the speed and severity of the drop and that the whole world just gave up on Nuclear mentally (yet forgot that about 20% of the global power grid is supported by Nuclear, in addition to government installations that run small private nuclear power plants and nuclear submarines).

In 2010 and 2011 the macro fundamental picture for nuclear power was so bright, that something like that, “a true black swan even” that came from out of nowhere, caught many off-guard. I averaged down again in early 2012, and had a prolonged painful experience until I completely sold out licking my wounds.

For the end of 2012, 2013, and 2014 I just did short term swing tradesin the quality companies, and completely gave up on explorers in Uranium. This year I started picking up positions in select companies like Uranerz (now merged with Energy Fuels), Energy fuels (because I’ve actually held shares in 3 different companies they bought out), Uranium Energy Corp, Ur-Energy, Uranium Resources, Denison, Fission, and even some Paladin and Cameco from time to time. I had a few good runs this year, but recently will admit to having the 4 positions I still hold fall underwater.

Thankfully I sold out of Denison in October and was spared the recent slide due to the botched merger. I’m considering getting back in to Denison soon as they are now getting oversold again, but it looks like the late September lows may get retested, so I’m just watching at present.

I have just watched Denison for a long time and know they have a quality company, assets, & management, and know how to survive. Honestly, the combined company of Denison & Fission would have been a unique operation, but it was the Fission investors that didn’t understand the value Denison brought to the table. Most don’t know they have a whole environmental division that does mine site reclamation, or that they have tolling agreements at Cigar Lake, or that they have a number of JV partnerships in a great pipeline of projects. They are entrenched in the industry and well respected, but most of the Fission investors were die hard Canadian Athabasca Basin junkies and didn’t understand all the moving parts that Denison has, and just want to cash in on the promise that Fission shows as a potential lowest cost producer due to their high grades. I get it because there was a big difference in the interests in the shareholders of each group. I also see Fission as back on the market, and it is very likely another company will make them an offer as well, and their shareprice is a better value because it has tanked as well.

As for Ur-Energy, I truly believe that longer term its going to have a great percentage increase relative to it’s peers, but yes it’s a waiting game at present.

You are correct on the opaqueness of the industry, but if you want video interview, read company CEO interviews, and analysts, you start to realize that Cameco, Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, and Uranium One all have long-term contracts that expire in the next few years that are in the high $50s ($56-$58 average). When those get renegotiated, the spot price will jump suddenly and will not be a slow grind up for years. It will catch most off-guard to the upside, as this commodity doesn’t behave like oil or the metals and is very thinly traded.

As for Kazakhstan, you are right on. Nobody realized they’d be supplying over 20% of global uranium in just a few years…..but, as Marin Katusa pointed out earlier this year, he believes they blew their wad and will not be able to keep production at the same levels, and this will pinch supply in a major way.

As for the US government with their “Megatons for Megawatts” campaign dismantling Russian and US warheads, that should have been over 2 years ago (2013-2014). However, it was announced that it officially ended, but the Obama regime continued to dump stockpiles of uranium into the open market after the cut-off date and this really messed up current producers. They all projected the supply that would be needed, ramped up output, and then got sucker punched by the US government and the Kazakhstan supply. This is why prices flatlined for the last few years (not just the Japan or Germany deals).

Most of the excess is being mopped up presently, and over the net few years the bull will be back in force, and I expect this sector to be booming again in the 2018-2020 time frame, but many of the large percentage gains will have already happened by then. That is why my sights are set on 2016-2018.

Very good information. I should have put more effort into uranium sector. Just I found it is not rewarding and not easy to understand the fundamentals. They drop in their share price unrelated to the result, a complete waste of time to read anything. It has the ear mark of complete capitulation. This hurts my feelings so I stay away from research since 2012 and close my eyes and buy once a while. I am thinking who cares, just buy some and some will survive. In particular I put most into Cameco and the dividend I got make me happy. It is the only U company I have made money. I am always scared of black swan event of small mining companies. They are actually white swans since there are so many. I checked your UR Energy and found it is one of the best smaller companies. That is why I placed some bid on TSX. I will treat it like another small(er) stock called UEX. Hope I will get it but I am not in a hurry. I still love the Athabasca Basin companies the most since their grade is way higher than the rest. They do have a better chance to survive and prosper. The break even price for most companies are $70. It might be lower sue to currency devaluation. When price is close to $60-70, we will see the relentless rise of the share prices since they start to turn from big loss to profitability.

Thanks again for your information.

BTW, I brought the fact that US dumps the stock pile to the market but I do NOT mean they try to manipulate uranium price. It is more to provide enough material these companies fail to secure I think. around 90% US uranium is imported.

I should qualify that Cameco is the only company I have made money since Fukushima.

Yes, the only way I’ve made money the last few years is swing trading the producers (Cameco, Areva, Uranerz, Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Paladin, and Uranium Energy Corp), and the two prior producers with projects waiting to come back on-line (Denison and Uranium Resources). I have not really fooled with the explorers as there are plenty of projects in place already and we just need the higher spot pricing.

One last thing is that companies with insitu mining versus the hard rock mines only need $25-$35 Uranium to be profitable, not $70. This is why Cameco has been focusing on that side of their business, why Energy Fuels bought Uranerz, why Uranium Resources just acquired Anatolia Energy (insitu in Turkey), and why I am so impressed with Ur-Energy who is also an insitu producer.

Right now, it is the insitu miners with this lower cost method of mining that are still able to operate in this low price environment. It is the hard rock miners like the other half of Cameco’s assets, Energy Fuels assets prior to acquiring Uranerz, Uranium Resources assets prior to acquiring Anatolia Energy, and Paladin that have suffered. This is also why the Athabasca basin in explorers like Fission is of such interest, because their grade is high enough to be profitable with $60 Uranium spot price.

Lastly, I would say that monitoring the fundamental news reports did allow me to get in and out of these stocks at key times when they had good results, when I thought a merger was coming down the pike, and bought the rumor….sold on the news….