Al's Insights – Sun 22 Nov, 2015

Are we really right around the corner from a serious depression?

We had an interesting discussion on the “forum” regarding some input from a member of our “family” stating that the U.S. is “right around the corner” from a major depression. Two of the statistics he used to support his argument were the export levels and the amount of personal equity held in people’s homes.

If, in fact, we are close to the onset of this catastrophic event these two statistics would be screaming the obvious: “There is serious trouble in Mudville”

Regarding the home equity situation here are two interesting charts:


Now, I have to absolutely agree that for someone 65 years or older to only have $125k to $130k in home equity is a pretty sad state of affairs.

Now, let’s consider total net worth with a breakdown including home equity and other categories. That number is even more frightening!


If Kathy and I could only access a bit over $31K from assets other than our home equity, I guarantee you that I would not be sleeping at night.

Regarding export numbers, through September of 2015 on a total census basis exports were $126,552 (million) and that is the lowest number since 2010 when it came in at $107,334 (million).

Is Big Al concerned? You bet and you better believe that there is serious trouble in “Mudville” because I think that Casey is about to go down!

Al Korelin

  1. On November 22, 2015 at 4:11 pm,
    FranSix says:

    We’re headlong into a liquidity trap, meaning as the senior central banker of Japan was quoted as saying after the onset of financial crisis, ‘there’s nothing you can do about deflation’ – he was replaced not long after.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:35 pm,
      al korelin says:

      I’ll bet he was!

  2. On November 22, 2015 at 4:15 pm,
    Bryan says:

    Hi Al,

    I am a 72 yr. old working Canadian and I would love to respond to you but I know it will take at least 2 pages to do so. Got an email address I can send my reply to?

    Bryan Morrow,
    Calgary. AB

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:39 pm,
      al korelin says:

      You bet Bryan:

      I am looking forward to what you have to say.

      Best to you, my friend.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:41 pm,
      Brian says:

      Try this (link: WHO WE ARE > CONTACT)

  3. On November 22, 2015 at 4:45 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Many of our forefathers like Thomas Jefferson warned us about the control of banking powers and control of the currency. Until the masses wake up, the charts and ” talk in circle analysis ” will continue..
    At least we have the rest of the world on ( the brain washed ) our” side, and the monetary system is soon to change..

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:40 pm,
      al korelin says:

      Very possible Chartster.

  4. On November 22, 2015 at 4:56 pm,
    Chartster says:

    The world economy is close to a major change of the narrative. The world economies are about to boom in a major way! Only the uninformed are going to be behind the curve. From now to the next few months will be the best time in recent history to pick up assets at rock bottom prices!

    Even though it looks like the wheels are coming off, this day in time is the best in 70 years!

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:41 pm,
      al korelin says:

      I believe that Doc agrees although I am not sure about seventy year but that could be the case.

  5. On November 22, 2015 at 5:10 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I’m afraid that most North Americans can’t adjust to a new world which requires new ideas, new habits, and a new order of doing things. They don’t understand that prosperity for them is gone, The Bull Market is still being touted but The Great Depression of the 1930’s started before the stock market crash.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:19 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Your graphs are a great visual but I’m afraid that most people are so far in hock these days that $31,000 is far more then they could muster. They have nothing but a piece of paper, that is worthless.

      • On November 22, 2015 at 5:43 pm,
        al korelin says:

        I completely agree Mr TRACY!

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:42 pm,
      al korelin says:

      Kind of my point My TRACY.

  6. On November 22, 2015 at 5:11 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Investing 101, buy low sell high, is here!

  7. On November 22, 2015 at 5:19 pm,
    Chartster says:

    You do have a good point there. The petro dollar is toast and it’s more of an asset based mentality. This site and others are really good for the investment community based on the new narrative that’s taking place.
    It will be tough on a few that are stuck in the old ” good faith and credit ” narrative. As everything in lending moves to asset based and liquid.

  8. On November 22, 2015 at 5:24 pm,
    Chartster says:

    The USD is about to be a ” 1 and done “. It’s should hit 1 to 1.03 and then it’s going down. The 1.20’ers are gonna get a surprise…

  9. On November 22, 2015 at 5:27 pm,
    Wayne says:

    A boy is a girl and fed paper is as good as gold.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:39 pm,
      Chartster says:

      That’s a good one. Let me know how that works in a few months.
      When paper is going down and gold is going up?

    • On November 22, 2015 at 5:44 pm,
      al korelin says:

      The meaning behind your comment is so very sad, Wayne!

  10. On November 22, 2015 at 5:27 pm,
    Chartster says:

    The euro and dollar should hit parity , and then both fall in value. That would be best for both countries regarding trade and economies.
    The euro dollar inverse trade is close to, Over!

  11. On November 22, 2015 at 6:51 pm,
    Jason says:

    A good depression is what we need to teach the sheeple voters a lesson.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 7:01 pm,
      Wayne says:

      Yup, we need a good spanking for believing so much foolishness.

      • On November 22, 2015 at 8:43 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Very true Jason!

      • On November 22, 2015 at 8:44 pm,
        Big Al says:

        At the very least a super loud wake up call!

  12. On November 22, 2015 at 6:55 pm,
    Agatha says:

    Violence and War-Catherine Austin Fitts
    By Greg Hunter On November 22, 2015 In Political Analysis 15 Comments
    B7y Greg Hunter’s (Early Sunday Release)

    Financial expert Catherine Austin Fitts has long said before there is another big financial crash, there will be a big war. Fitts explains, “If you look at how fragile the geopolitics are, the danger, as I have always said, is that we go to violence, and then things really come unhinged. So, I’m worried about violence and war and kind of situation getting out of hand. That’s when you get the really dangerous scenarios.”

    What is the biggest financial problem the world faces? Fitts, who is an expert in the federal budget and a former Assistant Housing Secretary, says, “The reality is the big mother lode on the whole planet, whether you are talking about derivatives, the bond market or the stock market, is the U.S. federal budget. What is slowly begging to happen is the dawning realization that we are not only going to have to reengineer and cut the federal budget, but we are talking about reinventing the U.S. economy. There are going to be extraordinary choices, and this is why nobody wanted to be the Speaker of the House. Paul Ryan did not want to be the Speaker because Paul Ryan knows this is coming. They will probably be able to delay it until after the election (2016), but then after the election, we’re going to have to sit down and say we can’t keep doing this. Why is this relevant? All the markets globally work off the federal budget. It is extraordinary the amount of cash flows and credit that work off the federal budget. The credit and cash flows coming out of that budget are enormous. The reality is it is going to have to be reengineered. That’s going to be a very shocking experience for many people.”

    Fitts says this will come with some negatives, but also some very big positives. Fitts contends, “In capitalism, winners have to win and losers have to lose. All across the world you have winners who have been manipulating, cut and stolen from the federal budget, and they are sitting around and not being corrective. If you switch and start to let the winners win and the losers lose, there is a lot that can go on that’s good.”

    The big losers, according to Fitts, are “anybody getting a government check or contract.”

    Fitts says there is up to a 60% chance the Fed will raise rates in December, and she says, “We’ve got to do it . . . and it’s going to be shocking.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with former investment banker Catherine Austin Fitts, creator of the Solari Report.

    (There is much more in the video interview.)
    what they are bombing in the desert…

    • On November 22, 2015 at 8:48 pm,
      Big Al says:

      ‘s Fitts is truly a bright person. I personally have all the time in the world for her.

  13. On November 22, 2015 at 7:10 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    When will the bottom in the commodities be reached, that is a critical question on the minds of most people who visit this site. This is a much more difficult situation to assess because the markets have been kept elevated for a long time and not allowed to correct. We know that corporations have been buying back their stock and cutting dividends to survive. All the old signs aren’t present, there are some improvements but only minimally and the stock market hasn’t deflated, and bankruptcies aren’t obvious. The economies of most industrialized nations are in decline, the future appears to be false although we live in an age of information we aren’t privy to the proper recording of statistics. In spite of all this we have rumors and psychology to filter. There is a major change in the national economy, the signs are mixed but the direction is not, but that is up to the individual to decide.

  14. On November 22, 2015 at 7:43 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    I think one of two scenarios will play out. There will be a cataclysmic crash or the economy will have no real sustained growth but will muddle along in between recessions. This could go on for some time as for instance what’s been happening in Japan since the end of the eighties.

    Either way, the standard of living for the vast majority of Americans will not get better but gradually erode at best or fall hard.

    I don’t see good economic times for the rest of my years on this miserable rock.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 8:51 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I, for one, being informed and nimble ate doing okay. ( Could be a lot better, I must admit!

  15. On November 22, 2015 at 8:44 pm,
    Chris in Thailand says:

    The neocons and the big government-two party dictatorship have destroyed America.
    Hillary will bring on the collapse.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 8:52 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Let.s chat this week, Chris.

      • On November 23, 2015 at 6:40 am,
        Chris in Thailand says:

        You got it Big Al!

  16. On November 22, 2015 at 9:07 pm,
    bb says:

    The federal government’s much-anticipated Syrian refugee plan will limit those accepted into Canada to women, children and families only, CBC News has learned.

    Sources tell CBC News that to deal with some ongoing concerns around security, unaccompanied men seeking asylum will not be part of the program.

    The details of the plan will be announced Tuesday, but already Canadian officials have been working on the ground to process people.

    • On November 22, 2015 at 9:20 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Now that is starting to make some sense!

    • On November 23, 2015 at 7:26 am,
      Brian says:

      This is the position of the USA, also. Canada is marring the US (federal, not state) immigration policy regarding Syrian immigrants.

  17. On November 22, 2015 at 9:35 pm,
    Mark says:

    *********** TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION! WE’ RE DONE!!!!!! *************
    The BALTIC DRY INDEX speaks for itself, it is at 498 points in November and falling, so nothing is moving! This is now the official start of the Greatest World Depression! As for America it will be the Mother Of All Depressions……and you are going to see it first with retail for the Christmas Season, followed by Massive Layoffs and then anger in the streets! 2016 is going to be a mess! The Fed and Obama have no clue as to what they are doing. Why do you think that they are calling for an emergency meeting for today!
    They are swimming in very dark uncharted waters!

    • On November 23, 2015 at 10:44 am,
      bj says:


  18. On November 22, 2015 at 9:59 pm,
    Mark says:

    This is it!

  19. On November 22, 2015 at 10:01 pm,
    Chartster says:

    It’s good news. We are close to a bottom of many assets and it’s getting close to buying season. Nothing is wrong! It’s what should happen near the long term bottom. All is good…

    • On November 22, 2015 at 10:18 pm,
      Mark says:

      All is good………………?

  20. On November 23, 2015 at 3:54 am,
    Bobby says:

    thoughts on silver.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 4:18 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Thanks for the post…….

    • On November 23, 2015 at 6:22 am,
      Dragonite says:

      Bodies in the mining pits as well. This is a slaughter which will end in disasters on both sides.

      • On November 23, 2015 at 6:34 am,
        Dragonite says:

        I may sell some us equity and buy silver.

        • On November 23, 2015 at 8:05 am,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          no counter party risk with the phyz…..mining share are cheap , but, who will remain standing.

          • On November 23, 2015 at 8:28 am,
            Dragonite says:

            I stay away from miners and buy ETF only, PHS.U.

          • On November 23, 2015 at 9:52 am,
            Big Al says:

            Those that do not quit. A winner never quits and a guitar never wins!

        • On November 23, 2015 at 9:50 am,
          Big Al says:

          I would personally wait a bit.

  21. On November 23, 2015 at 3:55 am,
    Bobby says:

    todays fed meeting:

    • On November 23, 2015 at 4:36 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      BRING IT…………..ready……………..thanks for the post, great comments. Brother JohnF, great listen to…………appreciate…………………..J.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 9:52 am,
      Big Al says:

      Many thanks Bobby.

  22. On November 23, 2015 at 5:24 am,
    Mark says:

    This X22 Report on the current collapse is so on point!
    You can’t disagree with anything covered in this news brief!

  23. On November 23, 2015 at 5:28 am,
    CFS says:

    You are a traitor, Mr. Obama.
    You undermine the U.S. economy by allowing illegal immigration.
    You fail to enforce the Constitution and the Law.
    You are wrecking the economy.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 5:32 am,
      Mark says:

      Don’t forget he influenced that Rainbow Law.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 10:46 am,
      bj says:

      You could say the same thing about Clinton and the two Bushs. Obama is just a continuation of more of the same.

  24. On November 23, 2015 at 6:14 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Silver at 13.94 , way to cheap…………comex paper , what a joke.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 7:00 am,
      Dragonite says:

      It was under 14 but did not see cascade effect of stop loss. Any idea about volume ?

      • On November 23, 2015 at 8:06 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        no idea …yet…….

    • On November 23, 2015 at 7:04 am,
      Mark says:

      The game is rigged !!!!!

      • On November 23, 2015 at 7:24 am,
        Dragonite says:

        For decades. It just got more prominent.

        • On November 23, 2015 at 8:08 am,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          Wonder what the ratio will be paper to phyz………..over 300 I am sure…..310,320,

          • On November 23, 2015 at 8:23 am,
            Dragonite says:

            If they can withdraw from some large vaults, this ratio may become irrelevant. I remember Brown bottom was made as a result of Gordon Brown selling out half of GB’s gold to save the banks.

          • On November 23, 2015 at 8:46 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Who is manning the vaults……… the crimex will seal the vaults and declare state of emergency…………………lol

  25. On November 23, 2015 at 6:42 am,
    Chris in Thailand says:

    Rick Ackerman is right on for what two years in his USD rally call?

    Repeat after me…Rick is right…..Rick is Right All hail Rick!

    • On November 23, 2015 at 8:14 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      you knew that all the time……….since, you worked at the treasury…………….lol

  26. On November 23, 2015 at 7:08 am,
    CFS says:

    Mr. Clinton,
    You, like your wife, are corrupt. A proven liar and a cheat.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 7:26 am,
      Mark says:

      Don’t forget he sold the American workers out when he signed NAFTA.

    • On November 23, 2015 at 8:12 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      She stood by her man, now he stands by his woman…….wonder if they will meet in the closet at the white house of horror………

    • On November 23, 2015 at 8:23 am,
      Ebolan says:

      The Clintons are evil criminals. This is a must listen to.

      And if people don’t like Roger Stone there are a host of other investigators who have found corruption and evil in the Clintons’ past.

      Big Al, can you get an interview with Stone?

      • On November 23, 2015 at 8:50 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Really, who would have guessed………………….lol