Chris and Doc provide their investing outlook into 2016
The National Investor Chris Temple and Richard ‘Doc’ Postma are here for our market wrap. We look past the Fed announcement into 2016. Where are the areas people should be investing and where should they be avoiding?
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Hourly charts on the major US indices imply inverse Head and Shoulder patterns. We will have an up day across the board and the VIX will continue its declines. We could exceed 2100 on the S&P.
Just note though, while this appears bullish at first blush it is NOT a big buy signal in my books as both the DAX and Euro Stoxx are behaving in a far less encouraging fashion as they continue to carve out a rolling top and that implies the US indexes will also continue to fall back in the New Year. The only reason these indices would diverge at this point is because the Euro keeps rising as it did some time back (rising currency- falling stock market scenario) but at this stage not many seem to believe that is likely. With the heavy betting on the long dollar trade the mood tells us that it is the dollar that should be going up.
Of course, the majority are usually wrong. And thank goodness for that or I would go bust betting against them!!!!!
Really missing Rick & Gary!
Same here.
Here you go Clark. How about a little Rick A interview in the interim.
Rick Ackerman – In Today’s World a Sense of Humor is a Major Requirement
from Financial Survival Network
Be very careful folks answering Jason’s question…….
Otherwise you could be Garyed………..
Ricks gone missing too…?!
Maybe we can get Alf Field to join in.
Don’t panic , Agatha , Look on the bright side I’m going to hang around. lol
That is very comforting Irishtony. You bring a smile to my face. 🙂
This was a good 2016 outlook guys. Mr T. and Doc thanks for your insights.
Stephen Roach on zero hedge says Fed creating a crisis in raising rate.
good show
We’re finally going to get the crash we’ve been cheated from observing since 2000.
The crash is behind you. Its all just muddling now. Big crashes virtually never happen consecutively. Ever.
Are you hoping for a crash?! What the hell is the matter with people!
I am not sure if I heard Doc and Chris correct but I got the impression that 2016 is the time not to invest in anything and just keep the cash under the mattress?
I think I need to re-listen 🙂
Ha ha. Yep! I heard that too Bob.
Glad it was not just me Tad.
you’re supposed to buy at the lows bob
perhaps its wise doc to cover the ‘stuff’……
Denmark To Confiscate Gold, Jewelry, & Valuables From Refugees
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/15/2015 – 17:00
Danish border guards may confiscate gold, jewelry, diamonds, and other valuables from refugees as they enter the country (though wedding rings are now off limits). The Danish government’s excuse is that they need to confiscate assets from refugees in order to pay for the services they’re providing to those same refugees. Having armed men indiscriminately seize refugees’ personal belongings doesn’t strike me as the best representation of a free society. Not that this matters anymore.
Good for the Danes. Maybe it will keep the Moors out.
You’re right Agatha. Property rights are going out of the window rapidly. It provides another excuse for governments to steal everything people have with impunity. These people are true sociopaths.
Still, I suppose you have the choice to say no I’m not going into your country then; I’m going home.
they get bombed if they return home… don’t you read the paper..??
Temple,
Your comment about the junk bonds and, it not making a difference one way or the other when the fed does the rate hike. I agree completely. The fed could do a shock and awe rate hike tomorrow and make the markets go nuts. They are saving treasury bonds at this point. The stocks will be the next bubble, after the junk bond bubble. The days of QE and the fed has your back are over IMO.
I disagree that they are over. These academics/policy wonks are naive enough to really think there’s a chance they can “normalize.” So they are “over” in a modest/brief sense. Once they blow things up, they’ll re-launch Q.E. and do all kinds of things to have your back, your arse and every other part of your anatomy. But by then the markets will be more of a mind that it’s not “Oh, goodie — more free money!” anymore, but will shift to “Oh God — MORE free money!?!?”
aren’t you both saying the same thing.. Chris & chartsie
Agatha,
We disagree regarding QE. I think it’s over. Temple thinks it will continue.
It’s taking a hiatus
Ben Bernanke says he never expected interest rates to stay at zero for so long
Published: Dec 15, 2015
The next question facing the Fed is whether there will be a rate hike in March
Published: Dec 11, 2015 – By Greg Robb
Like I said earlier, I’m curious to see what their “guidance” and data dependence becomes after tomorrow
Yep. It will be quite the show. Every word will be analyzed from all angles I’m sure.
and you believe him….?
I really don’t think they know what they are doing in this “experiment”, and Helicopter Ben didn’t realize he was turning the US into Japan. I think they believe that they have a handle on things, and really they are just whistling in the dark.
Commodities bear forever and equities bull forever? Really?
I like Turquoise Hill. I’ve asked Doc about it before, and for now he feels it’s fate is the same as most commodity companies. They seem to have their act together a bit more than some of their peers and have outperformed lately:
Here’s a 200 day composite chart of some larger Commodity Conglomerates:
Teck Resources, Vale, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Glencore Xstrata, First Quantum, Turquoise Hill, Antofagasta, and Anglo American PLC.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TCK,VALE,BHP,RIO,FCX,GLCNF,FM.TO,TRQ,ANTO.L,AAUKY#
Here is 200 day composite chart covering some of the Mid-tier and a few smaller Commodity Conglomerates. Mitsui has outperformed in this group and done about the same as Turquoise Hill in the bigger producer list above.:
Companies featured:
Exxaro, Hudbay, Jiangxi, Vedanta, Lundin, Kaz, Mitsui, OZ, Capstone, and South 32
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?EXXAY,HBM,JIXAY,VEDL,LUNMF,KAZ.L,MITSY,OZMLF,CS.TO,SOUHY#
Sorry, added the wrong ticker up above for Anglo American. Here’s a CORRECTED 200 day composite chart of some larger Commodity Conglomerates:
Teck Resources, Vale, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Glencore Xstrata, First Quantum, Turquoise Hill, Antofagasta, and Anglo American PLC.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TCK,VALE,BHP,RIO,FCX,GLCNF,FM.TO,TRQ,ANTO.L,NGLOY#
Anglo and Teck are the bottom dwellers…….
******** BALTIC DRY INDEX BREAKS ALL TIME LOW, DOWN TO 484 POINTS! *********
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
And they are going to raise interest rates tomorrow!
MARK,
I thought you got banned from the KER site yesterday?
All The Best,
JIM
Yes, earlier I admitted that I got a little too emotional regarding Gary yesterday! Hey Gary is well liked on here! I’m sure one day he will return and he should!
This Baltic Dry Index low is a first in history! This is not good!
MARK,
Thanks for the continued updated posts regarding the B.D.I.
All The Best,
JIM
Thanks!
Anyone have an opinion on Hochschild?
They’ve been around for over 100 years and are featured in two of the Silver and ETFs, so they should survive this downturn. They also have low All In Sustaining Costs, which is a plus. The are operating mostly in S. America and Mexico which has some political risk, but things appear to improving with policies in Peru and Argentina compared to the last 2-3 years. Mexico has also been a little less dangerous, as it got a bit wild last year and earlier this year.
In the Silver ETF (SILJ) Hochschild is a top 10 holding (6th biggest allocation) at 6.44%
In the Silver ETF (SIL) Hochschild is in 22nd place at .69%
____________________________________________________________________
As of last quarter:
•Production-to-date of 34,000oz Au & 815,000oz Ag
•Set to deliver 12-13m oz in 2016 (incl. approximately 119,000 oz Au)*
•Expected to be Hochschild’s lowest cost operation @$747/oz AISC (Au Eq)*
•First quartile of industry cost curve
•Initial resource life-of-mine of 11.3 yrs
Thanks Ex. Appreciate that. Really.
I’ve got both those Etfs. Plus a direct holding… that’s down about 30% over the past 6 months.
Got Tahoe, First Majestic, Pan American, Mag & Fresnillo BUT, there’s something about the old guard, Hochshild and Couer, that attract me too. They’re down about 90% from 2010(roughly). Deciding whether to stick with them.…
Tad – That’s a pretty solid group in the bigger Silver producers.
Well (SIL) pays their analysts a lot of money and here is how they have their ETF weighted:
Name % of Net Assets
FRESNILLO PLC 12.67
TAHOE RESOURCES INC 12.54
SILVER WHEATON CORP 12.46
INDUSTRIAS PENOLES CP 10.58
MAG SILVER CORP 5.46
POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL P 5.35
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER COR 4.73
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP 4.56
HECLA MINING CO 4.38
ALAMOS GOLD INC-CLASS A 4.16
SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES 4.11
PRIMERO MINING CORP 4.07
COEUR MINING INC 3.82
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC 3.35
MCEWEN MINING INC 2.14
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP 1.59
SILVERCORP METAL USD 1.53
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC 1.46
BEAR CREEK MINING CORP 0.62
AURICO METALS INC 0.21
AURICO METALS INC 0.18
SILVERCREST METALS INC 0.02
CASH -0.30
While I like Silver miners in general, I like the weighting inside the Jr ETF (SILJ) better:
(P.S. – these weightings are more up to date and this changes the Hochschild info I posted earlier as that was info I had saved on my computer. This is as of yesterday)
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) ETF
MAG SILVER CORP COM MAG CN 14.23
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP AG 11.33
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC COM FVI CN 10.44
SABINA GOLD & SILVER CORP COM SBB CN 9.16
MANDALAY RES CORP COM MND CN 7.76
GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD GPL 5.92
HOCHSCHILD MINING HOC LN 5.91
SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES SSO CN 5.31
SIERRA METALS INC SMT CN 4.67
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP EXK 4.30
BEAR CREEK MNG CORP COM BCM CN 3.30
AMERICAS SILVER CORP SPM CN 2.96
SILVERCORP METAL INC COM SVM CN 2.64
TREVALI MINING CORP TV CN 2.24
MIRASOL RES LTD COM MRZ CN 1.43
ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP AXU 1.33
MINCO SILVER CORP COM MSV CN 1.14
KOOTENAY SILVER INC KTN CN 0.87
GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN 0.76
EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXN CN 0.68
AURCANA CORPORATION AUN CN 0.53
SANTACRUZ SILVER MNG LTD SCZ CV 0.43
IMPACT SILVER CORP IPT CN 0.38
SILVERCREST METALS INC SIL CN 0.10
Thanks Ex
I’m on the right track then…
Should turn out nice in a couple of years hopefully 🙂
Just seen your second post.
I actually have a few others on this list (endeavour, bear creek, fortuna, Wheaton… and great panther (Christ… practically the index!). I did get a slap on the wrist from someone over at Sprott for buying Great Panther; they were very underwhelmed by them ‘terrible company, dump it ASAP’ was the quote!
I don’t feel that Great Panther is terrible, but there are companies with better all in sustaining costs and assets. However, I posted on GPL earlier in the year and about 4-5 people came out dogging it, so maybe Sprott is correct. I don’t currently own it, but have traded the majority of the companies on these lists in the last 2 years.
Yes, honestly as I look at these again, I feel that maybe I’d be better off just parking some money in these ETFs instead of trying to be a stock picker some days. It’s a lot less thinking and worrying.
However, I added to my position in Mandalay today and like the dividends, so there are perks to buying the stocks outright.
Best of Luck to you in your investing Tad!
I believe the risk of invest in individual silver miners is risky even I do have a few. I can only say three I can hold for a long term, Silver Wheaton, SilverCorp and First Majestic. I feel it is much better to invest silver ETF such as Sprott Silver trust. At least, you know it is not becoming 0.
Those are definitely 3 longer term Silver winners Dragonite.
Yes, I still like the upside of some of the smaller producers best, and I like the ability to play short term rallies individually. However, when I get fully invested into the mining space over the next year, I’ll likely store a fair bit in these mining ETFs just for spreading the risk over a basket of miners.
SilverCorp price is almost equal to its cash per share. All the reserve is nearly free. Talk about hatred. This is extreme. It is the lowest producer in the world and have kept a lot of cash it has made during the years in the bank. I believe they can earn an interest at 4% in China.
I like Panther…………..the Claw…….lol
Ha! Maybe it will claw it’s way up in 2016.
Lowest production cost
Thanks Dragonite. I need to re-evaluate Silvercorp if their costs are that low.
It is up nicely today, but many miners are up nicely today so far. Best to you.
All in cost is at ~$12. They even made money last quarter something like 3 cents per share. They had a bad quarter previously, I think it is due to write downs. It is also buying back 1.2 million shares in a quarter. Considering $70 million cash in the bank and lower than spot price cost, I think it is well positioned to last longer than the most, Since they operate inside China, they also have a good local relationship. The people in Henan province is famous for hot temper and revolutions so the local government does count on them for creating jobs. They will get help if they need. JMHO.
Their cash actually grew $10 million in the last few years, which surprised me. People are naturally suspecting Chinese companies. This is a Canadian company with accounting for both countries. A few years ago, some funds tried really hard to make fraud claims against them and they have all been cleaned. Unfortunately, they haven’t had chance to recover yet due to the lower silver price.
Very nice. Thanks for that information on their all in costs Dragonite. They should be in great shape in when Silver prices recover. Yes, operating inside of China has some advantages as well. Much appreciated.
Big Al – if you talk to Michael Belkin anytime soon, I’d be curious to hear if he is following Northern Star Resources. They are an Australian gold miner (w/ 5 mines) and I know he follows the Australian sector closer than most.
Some of the Gold ETFs have increased their exposure in a significant way and that seems noteworthy.
Well after doing a little bit more homework, I can see why Northern Star Resources is now the #1 Holding in GDXJ @ 5.14% of the ETF. Check this out:
____________________________________________________________________________
-Highly profitable: underlying net profit A$108.9m in FY15; underlying free cashflow A$185.6m; total dividend of A5¢ps
-Strong balance sheet: no debt; A$196m in cash, bullion and investments (30 Sep 2015)
-Emphasis on shareholders: Past 5 years averageTSR +200% & return on equity of 43%
-One of the few ASX-listed gold miners with critical mass and asset diversity: 535koz-570koz in FY16 at low costs: AISC of A$1,050-A$1,100/oz, margin of ~A$400/oz at the current gold price, with production rising to 700koz per annum from FY18 onwards
-Politically and financially stable: all mines in the resources-friendly state of Western Australia, home to Kalgoorlie, the giant iron ore mines and a world-class LNG industry
-Northern Star is a demonstrated growth stock: A5¢to +A$3.00 a share in five years
-Aggressive exploration strategy (A$50m in FY15) delivering outstanding growth; total resources rose 2.7Moz to 8.9Moz in FY15 (after depletion); average cost of discovery just A$19/oz; a further seven discoveries not included in FY15 Resource statement
-Committed A$74m to expansion capital in FY16; this will underpin growth in productionto 700,000ozpa from FY18
http://www.nsrltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AGM-2015-Presentation-Final.pdf
While I was reviewing the daily holding in GDXJ today, I realized they have done a lot of rebalancing, and there are some new companies that have been added. This is one heck of a list of mining companies. Anybody have any favorites on this list of 54 companies?
__________________________________________________________________________
GDXJ – All Fund Holdings as of 12/15/2015
Number Holding Ticker % of net assets
1 Northern Star Resources Ltd NST AU 5.14%
2 Oceanagold Corp OGC CN 4.89%
3 Evolution Mining Ltd EVN AU 4.86%
4 Pan American Silver Corp PAAS US 4.53%
5 Centamin Egypt Ltd CEY LN 4.40%
6 Alamos Gold Inc AGI US 4.22%
7 Novagold Resources Inc NG US 4.06%
8 Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd OR CN 4.00%
9 Centerra Gold Inc CG CN 3.66%
10 Regis Resources Ltd RRL AU 3.56%
11 Semafo Inc SMF CN 3.34%
12 Hecla Mining Co HL US 3.21%
13 Torex Gold Resources Inc TXG CN 2.80%
14 Iamgold Corp IAG US 2.79%
15 Pretium Resources Inc PVG US 2.65%
16 First Majestic Silver Corp AG US 2.63%
17 Silver Standard Resources Inc SSRI US 2.23%
18 China Gold Inttl Resources Corp Ltd CGG CN 2.09%
19 Alacer Gold Corp ASR CN 2.04%
20 G-Resources Group Ltd 1051 HK 2.01%
21 Lake Shore Gold Corp LSG CN 1.81%
22 Seabridge Gold Inc SA US 1.75%
23 Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd HMY US 1.66%
24 China Silver Group Ltd 815 HK 1.61%
25 Premier Gold Mines Ltd PG CN 1.59%
26 Coeur D’Alene Mines Corp CDE US 1.57%
27 Sandstorm Gold Ltd SAND US 1.56%
28 Fortuna Silver Mines Inc FSM US 1.39%
29 Primero Mining Corp PPP US 1.36%
30 Mag Silver Corp MAG CN 1.34%
31 Kirkland Lake Gold Inc KGI CN 1.27%
32 Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd SAR AU 1.26%
33 Asanko Gold Inc AKG CN 1.23%
34 Endeavour Mining Corp EDV CN 1.12%
35 Guyana Goldfields Inc GUY CN 1.12%
36 China Precious Metal Resources Holdings 1194 HK 1.08%
37 Mcewen Mining Inc MUX US 1.05%
38 Koza Altin Isletmeleri As KOZAL TI 0.92%
39 Endeavour Silver Corp EXK US 0.78%
40 Continental Gold Inc CNL CN 0.61%
41 Teranga Gold Corp TGZ CN 0.59%
42 Gold Resource Corp GORO US 0.59%
43 Argonaut Gold Ltd AR CN 0.51%
44 Highland Gold Mining Ltd HGM LN 0.49%
45 Dundee Precious Metals Inc DPM CN 0.44%
46 Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM CN 0.43%
47 Beadell Resources Ltd BDR AU 0.42%
48 Resolute Mining Ltd RSG AU 0.35%
49 Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd KCN AU 0.32%
50 Rubicon Minerals Corp RBY US 0.18%
51 Patagonia Gold Plc PGD LN 0.09%
52 Sulliden Mining Capital Inc SMC CN 0.05%
53 Paramount Gold Nevada Corp PZG US 0.01%
54 Real Gold Mining Ltd 246 HK 0.00%
55 Other/Cash 0.33%
Again, I love playing the individual stocks for the ability to identify breakouts, mini-rallies, and buying on the dips. Having said that, when we feel more confident that a bottom is in with the PMs, I’m throwing some long term money into GDXJ. This is a crazy list of companies all grouped together under one umbrella.
Check BDR’s mine life maybe Excelsior?
I’m too busy ATM to look further but something in the old memory box went ‘ding’ when you mentioned Beadell for some reason?!?!
Unless I’m mixing them up with another ASX listing?
Cheers.
Will do. This is just the makeup inside of GDXJ as of yesterday, and this ETF has been re-weighted and some new names have been added. I am not familiar with Beadell really, but will look into it. There are a few new names towards the bottom that I’ve never heard of and need to do some homework now 🙂
Thanks for the heads up Skeeta.
Thanks Ex
You too 🙂
Let’s see what happens tomorrow. I am glad we have finally reached this date.
Commodities Poised to Rebound in 2016
Roland Morris
http://www.vaneck.com/library/viewpoint-videos/?video=635826860236463208
There were some interesting comments on how the supply of commodities is being curbed more than the main stream media is reporting on. This guy is pretty sharp.
Interesting interview guys (and long!). But I think you are right. If we do get a rate hike it will be spun as a trial and the Fed will not lock themselves into any date specific program as they will want to keep maximum flexibility open. So they can signal an intention to move into a rate tightening environment but with the caveat these can be reversed again if needed.
Moving on to another subject….
Last week I wrote a post on my projections for precious metals after being asked and I provided an answer based on a pattern I am watching. What that pattern is that is developing is called a “bottom megaphone” and generally these can be reliable once confirmed.
The pattern appears at the bottom of a long period of declines where the second bounce is higher than the first bounce off what appears to be a price bottom. This is then followed by a third and final thrust higher which can take prices substantially higher depending on the magnitude of the megaphone.
For example, an hourly chart Megaphone is not as important as one seen on a daily or weekly chart so while significant it would not encourage one to take positions for too long a stretch. The bigger the pattern the better the outcome.
Anyway, Gary had discussed the fact that gold and silver were both in right-translation for the first time since forever and he felt that was significant, perhaps even telling us a final bottom had arrived. At the time I disagreed due to my own charting and in fact both metals tumbled hard soon afterwards (which was happily very rewarding as I caught both the decline and the bounce back).
Now on the first point, Gary was correct about noting the significance of that right-translation but what he did not see was that what was actually in formation was the megaphone which I just mentioned.
So off a bottom there will be three distinct rises and each will be longer than the one before it. I want to post the pattern for everyone here to judge this for themselves and then ask you to go and look at silver on a daily chart for a comparison (also linked in my next post).
Most here will probably agree this looks like a positive set up for silver.
If I am correct in this assessment then gold silver and the miners GDX and GDXJ are set for an substantial move up that should begin during the next few weeks. An important note though; The chart pattern is not actually confirmed until it breaks ABOVE the rising trend line so you would not bet the house on this nor any other prediction a chart reader sees.
So for silver (and for the sake of argument) that would be something in the 17 dollar range exceeding the upper boundary of the rising trend channel as drawn off the prior peaks seen in August and November.
The leg up should begin fairly soon based on the current consolidation pattern. Here is a technical analysis brief on the “Bottom Megaphone pattern” so everyone here gets a clear idea of what I am referring too.
After checking silver it will be worth your time to also check GDX and GDXJ for confirmations of this idea. While similar patterns exist in those they are less perfect and by that I mean that price did not extend lower but rather hit a base and consolidated. I don’t believe this is a hindrance though as miners have already been heavily oversold.
Megaphone Bottom Pattern (rare but fairly reliable pattern so keep your eyes on it)
https://www.share.com/experienced-investors/technical-analysis/megaphone-bottom/
OK….here is the Daily Futures Chart for Silver that I want you to make the comparison with. The period of time you need to examine is between July and December 2015. Volumes should start to rise in the very near future as well if there is going to be a breakout in progress that will signal a fairly bullish set-up.
Silver Futures Daily Chart ….we have completed the first two legs of a megaphone. The next one if it comes will lead to a breakout above 17 dollars. How high it goes is anybodies guess. All we can do now is watch and wait.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=SI
Last note to the super-bulls. As with all technicals and chart analysis there are substantial risks. We have seen innumerable patterns in the past that failed to satisfy and many people here were left with losses after following along with an idea someone had come up with. My suggestion is that you take special care and assume nothing until the charts actually get bullish again. My ideas noted above are merely a projection into the future but by no means are they yet a fact no matter how compelling the idea sounds.
So don’t bet the house on it.
Interesting thoughts on the Megaphone bottom. Thanks.
OK. Tough crowd here though. Or maybe most don’t see what I see. I made those calls before the pre-market opened Shad. How many times have we heard people say that NOBODY can call a bottom or top? And funny enough I have done it more times than I can count. That cannot possibly be blind luck. And the setup was indeed very bullish as I noted below.
Anyway, thanks for the mention.
It was a very good call Birdman. Do you think after this afternoon that there may be some sudden reversals, or is everything already baked in at this point and following that pattern for mid-term?
People that say bottoms and tops can’t be called, don’t use the shorter duration charts in combination with the longer term charts. That is the key. I usually use support/resistance levels for bottoms and tops (taken from a confluence of different technical indicators that coalesce in a certain area = congestion) and have had my fair share of good calls this year as well.
– In Jan/Feb I mentioned the USD would top out between 100-102, and it did in March at 100.39 (to the surprise of many). I don’t remember anyone having that as their “top”.
– I mentioned in Feb & March that oil would get up to $64 in the summer and then turn down to $38, and this exactly what it did to the dollar (even though people were pounding the table for $70-$80 Oil by year end)
– Recently I mentioned when it was in the low $40’s that Oil would pull back to the $35-$38 level to consolidate before a bounce, and it got down right near $35 last week, and is back there again today (when people said we’d never see the $30’s again).
– I hit 3 different VIX breakouts this year, but August was the big one of course.
– I mentioned that the Nov 2014 and July 24th lows in Gold, were not the final bottoms and I’ve been very consistent since the end of 2014 that t I saw $1065 as first support, $1044.70 as next support, and $993.20 as the lowest I anticipated in Gold. Well recently Gold came down and tagged $1065 right on the money and bounced, and then came down to $1045 and bounced. It remains to be seen if that was the final bottom, or if we’ll go down to test $993.20.
I would say the value of Gary’s cycle theory is knowing the timing band something will happen. This is my weakest area. Rick Ackerman is incredibly good at using his hidden pivot system to call turns very accurately all the time. Doc is good at using charting, patterns, and technical indicators like MACD, RSI, ADX, BBs, and MAs to look for longer term turns. Some people I follow like the Elliot wave crew use Fib retracement levels. Some others use Japanese Candlestick patterns. Nothing is perfect, but they all can have their moment in the sun and be useful to spot tops and bottoms.
Good stuff and good call today once again.
You did have some good calls this year .Thanks for the refresher. I had forgotten some of them. As far as gold and silver go…well yes, there is always the possibility of a pullback or reversal on an FOMC day depending on what they say. I really don’t worry about it too much though. Especially based on the way I am reading the charts and partly because we will now move into a strong period for gold. I am honestly very optimistic right now and feel we have finally seen the interim bottoms.
That works for me. Nobody knows what will happen this afternoon or what the Fed will say, but regardless, I think in the mid term PMs will get a bid. Yes, we have a seasonality factor going into late Dec – Feb that is is typically good for PMs.
I have some mining positions in place, and am waiting to see if things take off suddenly, or if we see a knee-jerk reaction to the downside. Regardless I plan on adding to some positions, but want to see if there is any out-sized moves to take advantage of.
For now, the world will stand still for the next hour waiting with baited breath……
OK, since I have one more note to write then the prior comments must have been the penultimate post. Gabby bird I guess but I am a little pumped up today and as usual at this time most people on the US East Coast are already in bed and sound asleep while I wait for lunch to be served. So I am alone here on this thread talking to myself!
No idea what the gals are making me but I bet its fantastic. Smells great so far.
Anyway, by my technicals we hit the interim bottom (not the final bottom) for silver on Monday this week and prices should begin to rise from here. Unless something unusual happens to the chart patterns after todays FOMC then I will be drinking my own Kool-Aid and getting selectively long silver miners once more during the coming days / weeks.
Gold is a different nut but we shall see how it responds before making any decisions there. But for silver there is a very nice pattern setting up that has gotten me bullish again.
Sorry all but I neglected to tell you what my short term pattern set up is. What we see now is a rounding bottom formed on silver on the HOURLY chart and we now have a confirmed break out from the declining channel. It is very bullish in my humble opinion.
Thank’s for all those thoughts …Bird.
You still awake Tony? We must be birds of a feather. I hardly ever sleep anymore. Might be related to age because I recall as a kid I could hardly get out of bed but these days I seem to be more of a bat. Awake day and night with intermittent naps.
Anyway, thanks man.
What did you think of my ideas after looking at the charts?
Getting off the beaten track for a minute..
Here is a fascinating video of Gary as he conquers an impossible piece of rock on his last hiking expedition. You guys who were curious about his mountaineering exploits will love this. I used to do a lot of climbing myself back in the day. Mostly in Banff and the BC Rockies so I really appreciated what he was doing here.
The Trophy – Gary Savage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMSVpWFVeaw
Come on Gary! get your arse back here. I promise on a stack of bibles I won’t bug you anymore. I will even throw in a couple Korans.
Looks like Gary is climbing “The Wall of Worry” 🙂
Ha! And he ought to be very careful the bottom does not rise up to meet him.
Gary left to soon……………GOLD just popped………….up $11
GARY’S chart of the day…….QQQ……..”interesting” as noted.
Well, it looks like I called that about as accurately as one could get. The upturn has arrived by the looks of it. It would however have been a lot more useful to everyone if I had left my posts during the day yesterday.
Very sorry I didn’t.
The gold and silver markets have not gotten away on us in any case. A little later in the day we will see another leg up. We are just in a minor consolidation at the moment but precious metals have turned unquestionably bullish. This is not just the usual pan-flash the way I see it.
So I am a buyer.
PS….where the hell is the feather for my cap you gold people!!!!!
ALL are busy assembling the FEATHER DUSTER……lol
Sure they are Frank. And I don’t want to be irritating but I think I have bested the pro’s today.
I think you posted after me………….he,he………..
Why don’t you give your hideous inaccurate market calls a rest. For every prediction you get right, you are wrong 5 times.
Lets start with gold. Few weeks ago you stated gold was going to blast off and be long because this was a rare opportunity. Buy the miners. WRONG…DEAD WRONG
Oil about the same, picking bottoms. How is that working out for you. Down about 20 %
if you are long futures you are wiped out X 10 = 200% loss.
Copper about 5 weeks ago you said was a triple bottom. That’s real good. Get long eh ??
NOW, YOU COME IN HERE AND KEEP GIVING US THE LONG COMMENTARIES FOR REASONS A MOVE IS GOING TO TAKE PLACE.
Ha .and you have no idea what you’re even talking about because your track record is much worse than following a dart board.
5 wrong and one right….CLOSE UP SHOP PAL !!! Its hideous and outrageously poor commentary.
S.U. !!!!!!! please ….
Gee Jake, you are maybe the only person here who does not know I am a short term trader. So not wrong. Not at all unless you tuned in and thought I was talking buy and hold. The ONLY trade I am in the red is WTI but its hedged out so no big deal. And that friend is my only loser this year.
Sheesh….so where are your calls hot shot?
And you call yourself a trader! Hahahahah!!!!
Sorry Jake. I take that back. You are probably having a bad year like a lot of other guys.
Hmm Birdman, you’re name wasn’t on the commentary I posted. So, it is you with market calls inaccurate as a broken clock.
Oh sure, you’re short term trader alright. You’re trades are liquidated within hours and the exchanges/brokerages close out your account for poor judgment placing losing trades.
That copper triple bottom never even bounced. That’s short term alright, another losing trade closed out by the exchanges.
Gold bounced for 2 days. Oh sure, you got out with a profit. Believe your lying eyes again.
Enjoy you’re fantasies and illusions !! Fake it till ya make it pal !!!!
Ok , somethings got stuck in your craw today so I will try to be more patient.
Everyone appreciates a little exaggeration now and then but its even better if you are accurate when making a case for criticism about my ideas. I am not here offering timing signals to anyone anyways but rather just offering an opinion on trends.
These are speculations only. Not trading advice Jake. That’s your job.
As far as the copper triple bottom goes (your term) well that is still in effect as I see it. I will post the futures chart again for you and you can make your own judgement on the validity of the observation. The current pattern as it stands has not materially altered my general outlook though.
That is to say I believe we are at the bottom. Obviously that is only a personal belief based on a technical pattern though. There are no hard and fast rules and nobody has a perfect track record forecasting but you are perfectly welcome to criticize the idea if you like.
Its a free world man.
Copper Futures – Monthly Chart (run the diagonal across the three major low points).
OK? And then you tell me if you still think that is going to break down further. And be honest about it if you don’t mind)
And Jake, about my gold / silver trades between December 2nd, 3rd and 4th I did indeed get in and out with a very acceptable gain. Not sure what problem you see with that but not everyone trades over very short periods.
Try and cheer up man. It can’t be that bad out there.
That’s perfectly acceptable. Its one holds themselves out as a guru I do have a problem with that.
I posted here for the record oil was going to collapse further and golds rally was just a going to be a temporary bounce with a further decline few weeks ago. Stock market
was going to experience a further decline as well.
All 100 percentile accurate market calls.
You posted on here several weeks ago all the doomers have been wrong and will continue to be wrong.
Say that again in a few months. Right now the doomers are right.
The only market call I’m not completely accurate on is the collapse of the economies and the markets are delayed by several months. Its in progress right here and now.
My forecast everything will get completely decimated in the months ahead.
Be long and you will be wrong. Unless its a quick HFT. The precious metals with oil down here are very vulnerable to a collapse.
Maybe I will change my name to Mr. Right !! Only once I thought I was wrong and turned out I was right.
Hells bells Jake, I am no Guru! Too damned funny. In fact I often paraphrase my comments with a warning to readers to not to follow along with anything I do as I know perfectly well how easy it is to suffer from recency bias and trend following behavior.
I specifically warned today that my gold idea was just a theory and was not yet a fact.
What I did however was another thing altogether as I was indeed a buyer. But that’s my own problem. If I am wrong then I will get my arse handed me on a platter. Fair punishment. That’s the name of the game.
About your comment where you say I said “the Doomers were all wrong and would continue to be wrong” you may have to refresh my memory. Was it about gold, oil, the dollar, stocks or bonds?
Obviously the context matters. So I can’t respond to that.
You’re humble and I have to respect that.
The doomers, in relation to our future and prosperity. There is absolutely nothing to be optimistic about. Only a irrational person could see any blue skies ahead.
Like I said my forecast is everything will be decimated in the months and years ahead.
There is only one direction and its straight down. Many disagree but I have been ridiculed only to be correct many many times before.
Well thanks Jake. Its all water over the dam to me.
As an aside I do agree stocks will decline in the New Year although I am perhaps not as pessimistic on the longer term. We’ll see in the New Year how it looks but I will most likely open a short trade then. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself though. Usually I focus mostly on the very shortest periods of hours and days so its a stretch for me to wrap my head around the macro of months and years.
Have a great day!
Thanks Birdman and although our communication was slightly rigid we never exchanged anything derogatory in nature. I really enjoy a challenging debate as long as everyone can be sincere and reflect compassion for one another. We we’re definitely successful in that regard.
I believe maintaining your short term trading strategies are in excellent judgment. Using historical standards for the last hundred years when investing for the long term is going to fail miserably in my view.
Best wishes and Happy Holidays !!!!
Best of the season to you too, Jake.
Come back Gary!
Screw the Trolls here!!
Dec 16 Grant Williams: The End Of The Road MS
on 321gold
Play for the day and the rest of the week.
Short crude, long EMs
Excelsior,
Good stuff on SILJ and GDXJ !! Two of my favorites.
Thanks for bringing them in.
Yes, they have changed the weighting of the companies and the internal holdings in a meaningful way. I like to look at what their analysts are weighting the heaviest in those ETFs. Sometimes it can be a wake-up call (like with Mag Silver or recently the big weighting to Northern Star Resources).
Another example is how OceanaGold has climbed in importance in the ETFs (but that is because they just bought out Romarco and will have some new near-term production on that mine, and they’ve just completed their acquisition of the Waihi Gold Mine located on the North Island of New Zealand from Newmont Mining).
I figure, they have analysts working all day to rebalance their ETF, and if a company is moving up or down in weighting, or if a new company gets added, then that is usually significant.
Good luck today in your trading Chartster.
Thanks, Man.
The thing is about those ETFs is that there’s no need to buy many companies. I’m still doing some individual companies, but I seem to do a lot better with ETFs. I got two companies that are going into vapor paper land right now.. Down 25% one one in a month! Grrr
Best of luck to you!
Sad but true. I’ve got a few vapor papers myself…. 🙂
Like I was mentioning up above though, I think isolating a company can give you the ability to play short term rallies in one stock that may not be mirrored across it’s peers. Also there are some stocks that pay dividends.
For a mid to longer-term hold, the ETF is far less risky though.
Even though individual companies can shine brighter than their peer groups, there are tons of landmines and risks that can not be foreseen. For example, an individual company can have stupid calls by management, geo-political risk, changes in taxation, currency challenges, debt challenges, environmental challenges, chemical spills or tailings dam breaks, first nation challenges, community challenges, a worker strike or union fiasco, processing of ore below specs, or may have done bad exploration and have to write down reserves and resources. It is a very risky sector. The ETFs limit some gains, but smooths the risk amongst the basket of companies.
I like having some of both, but investing in miners isn’t for those with a weak stomach.
Understood. I used to like Hecla until I found out they were sitting on a major fault line..
Wow, I didn’t know that, and do have a small position in Hecla. Yikes.
For me it was their acquisition of Aurizon Mines in 2013 that was the clincher. I used to be a shareholder in Aurizon in 2010 and 2011 when it was rocking and rolling. Then it completely nose-dived and Hecla bought them at what seemed like fire-sale prices then, but obviously there have been 2 more years of bear markets. Regardless, that is like having 2 great companies under one roof, and those assets are likely not on the fault line.
That is good information though. I am no geologist, but know some of the basics, and many deposits are near fault lines, unconformities, volcanic calderas, and bizarre places where plates are running into or on top of each other. It kind of makes sense from that perspective.
Also, they’ve endured the test of time (which is rare these days):
Hecla to Celebrate 125th Anniversary in 2016
http://investors.hecla-mining.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=RssLanding&cat=news&id=2118577
Nice!
Hecla Mining Co. (HL) -NYSE
2.0750 Up 0.1550(8.07%) 3:46PM EST
HL up over 8% since Fed rate hike. That’s OK with me…..
But, the fault probably has the best vein? /-:
Yesterday morning, CNBS had John Kilduff back on again because previously he said oil was going into the 20s. Yesterday, they rolled him out to say that oil had bottomed and is going back up. LOL.
Today oil is crashing. CNBS is the Fed’s TV mouthpiece and biggest shills on this planet.
The Fed’s & Treasury’s PPT is now trying to take oil up, gold down and stock market up right now at 1:40pm (20 min before the announcement). Incredible what they do.
Why do they want oil up? They don’t punish Russia any more?
the rebels need more money……war footing and the Saudi(princes) need to keep their head.
Ha ha maybe. Then jack up price sky high. They need it. Russia just got hundred billion dollars from China. So they are OK for now to fight the war. People wonder why China sells treasury. They have good use of the money, like fund AIIB, save Russia, fight capital flight, etc. Oh forgot, they may need to build more empty cities 🙂
Anyone want to take a guess on open and close for tomorrow on the S&P and gold? I-hub is completely split down the middle on the debate. I really think it is a coin toss on tomorrows action.