Avi Gilburt – Thu 7 Jan, 2016

The QE Fallacy and Precious Metals

Here is Avi’s latest posting. It is posted over at Gold-Eagle so simply follow the link below to read the full report.

Markets have a funny way of providing us with the exact opposite of what the masses believe will be seen.  This is why contrarians often outperform the masses.  And, the precious metals market is not immune to this phenomena.

Back in 2012, when the Fed announced QE3, many were not just viewing it as a positive factor for the metals market, but almost everyone was quite certain it would cause the metals to rally to the moon.  I remember it all too well, since I was suggesting shorting silver at the time.  I was warned time and again about how “foolish” I was for suggesting this trade.  Many even warned me that “it would completely ruin your career as an analyst,” and they strongly urged me to reconsider my perspective.   I was told many times that “this was possibly the worst trade you could ever suggest.”

At the time, silver was in the 35/36 region, and I was looking for a drop towards the 22 region, with the potential we could drop as low as 12.75-14.  Yes, everyone looked at me like I was crazy.  Not only was I suggesting some “ridiculous” targets on silver, but I was doing so in the face of a “certain” moon shot about to be caused by QE3.

Needless to say, QE3 came and went, and we now find ourselves in the 14 region, with our sights clearly being set on the 12.75 region next.

Moreover, we now have been through the ECB QE program also, yet, the metals have continued their decline.    So, the appropriate question to ask is “what went wrong?”

Click here to read the rest of Avi’s post.


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Avi Gilburt

Comments:
  1. On January 7, 2016 at 12:28 pm,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    I like the first line……………ccf

  2. On January 7, 2016 at 1:14 pm,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Strong day in gold………..and I think FRIDAY is going to be strong also.

    • On January 7, 2016 at 3:27 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I happen think that the climate will be good for longer than just a few days.

      Know what that means? Run for the hills away from my opinion. (Unless my comment about starting to accumulate at about $1170 turns our to be okay as I think it will.)

      • On January 7, 2016 at 3:52 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        I think we run to 1250…..before a retreat…….but, will take some time….
        we popped thur 1088 which was a number for some ….`I think Gary’s double bottom call was a good one..

  3. On January 7, 2016 at 1:30 pm,
    MACDaddy (Jason) says:

    Avi must have been doing his gold rain dance.

  4. On January 7, 2016 at 2:38 pm,
    Dragonite says:

    I am really interested in your articles where you made the call at the start of the QE3. Can you give me some?

  5. On January 7, 2016 at 3:30 pm,
    Big Al says:

    I forwarded this to Avi, Dragonite.

    • On January 8, 2016 at 7:29 am,
      Dragonite says:

      Thanks. Please follow this up. I wish I can see the original documents instead Avi’s claims what he said.

      • On January 8, 2016 at 9:54 am,
        Big Al says:

        He told me that he does not want to share them.

        • On January 8, 2016 at 12:01 pm,
          Dragonite says:

          Why is that? They are no longer useful for his subscribers. If he is not willing to prove his claims, he should stop making them. He uses those to bash other people. It is not fair for Gary or others.

        • On January 8, 2016 at 3:03 pm,
          Dragonite says:

          Al, I am really disappointed.

  6. On January 8, 2016 at 6:18 am,
    confused says:

    There is a several year lag between money printing and the impact on the gold price. We will see this in earnest in the years to come. Until then lets focus on more important issues like the Western demographic time bomb, environmental collapse, and the impending restructuring of the global monetary and trade system.