A recap of another crazy day in the markets
LPG and Cory recap the moves we saw today in the markets. With US markets closing at or near their bottoms the last 4 days have been the worst in history. We finish with comments on the continued nice moves in the precious metals.
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thanks for the chart.
Not at this time, Matthew!
Some support was found at my median fork line (which I drew weeks ago):
http://schrts.co/fzmPJn
Note the high volume downside breakout of what might be considered a very bearish, very droopy head and shoulders pattern:
http://schrts.co/y3i34h
Just to clarify something…
At 3mn50sec, I mentioned “seeing the market down 10% and more”… I meant “2% and more”. Don’t know why I said this crazy thing.
Apologies for the confusion.
LPG
LPG. Let’s here about these companies that you are buying. Pretium, Red Eagle?
Peter,
I have only ever mentioned 2 names in the past on KER.
Reason is I view some of the names I own as too “small” to mention them on KEREPPORT. FWIW, I don’t wanna be seen as pumping them one way or another.
Re: the 2 names you suggested, I own PVG indeed – fwiw.
Best to you,
LPG
Thanks LPG
NO ON SHOULD FALL ASLEEP TONIGHT like you all did last night………because it is about to get interesting! lol.
NO ONE SHOULD FALL ASLEEP…………………..sorry!
It very easily could, Mark!
no forked tongue here…LPG
*********** THE PAIN CONTINUES! THE BALTIC DRY INDEX PLUNGES TO 445 POINTS! ***********
OH MY GOD these numbers are even more historic!
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
That is a 22 point drop from yesterday on the BDI, we are now head first full speed ahead into a Global Depression! Yes it is going to be fascinating to see what happens in China between 8:30pm to 9:00pm EST…….WOW!
Agree, Mark.
Thanks Big AL………….love documenting this collapse while everyone else in in denial!
DOW FUTURES already down 35 points!
*********** PPT WORKING HARD right now to keep the Dow Futures from falling!
********** IF CHINA CRASHES AGAIN TONIGHT, WHAT WILL OBAMA AND THE DEM’S SAY TOMORROW! ***********
What will the Federal Reserve say…………………GO DONALD TRUMP!
What will Birdman say…………….lol!
silence is golden……………………
Birdman will say that maybe you guys will learn something by listening to others and keeping an open mind. Most of what I was discussing yesterday is coming to pass this morning. Was that just good luck or a fluke guess?
No.
Try not to get carried away with collapse ideas after just a few days market drama. Steep sell-offs most often are buying opportunities, not reasons to start building bunkers or buying canned Tuna packed in oil.
While I would agree that US markets will generally be in decline until summer I don’t think they are going straight down. You will need to swing trade the declines and play the volatility to keep ahead of the game if you don’t want to hold any stock positions.
The world is not ending though. Even the current deep lows registered on the BDI which Mark keeps talking about don’t signal the gloom he is suggesting. Rather it tells us a bottom is approaching in shipping.
Focus on that instead and you will be better off by far.
Agree with your last sentence
But not the rest? You crack my up Al. You are a seriously funny guy some days.
canned tuna packed in oil……….is cat food…………….the claw………..lol
You kidding? I love that stuff. My cats don’t get it because I am first in line.
ALL MAJOR NEW MEDIA NOW FOCUSED ON THE ECONOMY……ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN!
Wow………….I wonder why!
NEWS MEDIA……
************ WHERE IS PETER SCHIFF!
Are they laughing at him now?
$5K gold, Mark?
5000 is laughable. Gold is about to correct after a big move so no need to get excited. The bottom may not be in.
************* BIG AL….YOU MAY HAVE TO CALL FOR AN EMERGENCY PODCAST OF THE DOC TONIGHT! *************
What do you think!
DONALD ” THE GENERAL ” TRUMP!
20,000 tickets handed out for his rally tonight!
REMEBER, WHILE YOU ARE A SLEEP……………China is not stupid!
HONG KONG opens in a couple of hours………..should be exciting…
Better get long popcorn cuz it’s gonna be an exciting year.
you bet………… 🙂
+1 Matthew.
Long pop corn, and as Frankie would say: “cool is the way” 🙂
Maybe we could have OWL …reinstate Frankie from purgatory ……
Sure, forgiveness is golden!
I would agree Matthew. I will say that I am still not moving capital out of the conventional equities position we have. I will wait for Gary’s bubble phase to occur.
Any thoughts on that?
Gary’s bubble phase is plausible but not probable in my opinion. I don’t see the appeal in betting that expensive shares will get even more expensive when there are so many bargains in the miners. There are risk profiles to suit almost everyone, too. For that matter, why not just buy silver or gold? Neither has nearly the downside that the conventional stocks do in my opinion.
Last but far from least, take a close look at this:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX
So why take the risk?
AS OF this late post………………..I think China may be up to something!
might want to check out zerohedge……..there is another article concerning the same
IF, they shut down the market in 7 min…..will make for a long week end for the market
Yes, it will, Frank
just read at zerohedge ……the “circuit breakers” have been removed……..so Friday should be even more interesting.
******* IS CHINA ABOUT TO DO SOMETHING BIG THAT EVERY MEDIA IS NOW ON WATCH! ********
We are all about to find out!
Now isn’t that interesting……………..down $7 in a flash………….
How do they do that??!!
They dumping contracts… again?
$1103.20 as of this moment Tad.
Gold should correct soon as the general market gets a bounce soon.
******* OKAY, AS EXPECTED CHINA DID WHAT IT COULD FOR NOW TO CALM THIS MARKET DOWN! ********
But what about next week……………….?
********* STANDBY FOR A HUGE FAKE JOBS REPORT FROM THE FED TOMORROW! *********
This will buy them some more time with zombie America………….but it won’t last long!
This collapse is coming to fast now…………just standby, wait and watch! AND YOU WILL SEE !!!!!!!!!!!!
the print will be unemployment expected under 5%…….and they created over 2.5 million job in 2015
………oh they will get gold and silver down tomorrow…………but time has now run out!
THIS IS GOING TO BE FUN TO WATCH! But still a little sad!
DOW FUTURES UP 135 POINTS…………….these guys are funny!
So, what did you expect?
****** CHINA STATE BUYING UP STOCKS………..really………………they did this this earlier this week….I wonder who told them to do this?
AGAIN, THIS WON’T LAST…………damn fools!
LET’S SEE if China will keep those circuit breakers off all of next week!
Just watch people like you scream all about manipulation when the gold rally falls over yet again.
Some of you are suffering premature exhilaration.
I can’t what for the excuses….
Its the PTB causing this,
Its the PPT stepping in,
Its all about manipulation because I cannot possibly be wrong….the market is instead.
You are all idiots because my computer program says buy when the gold price is falling yet again.
……there really are some nuffies on here.
Great thoughts, Skeeta.
LOL! Good one Skeeta.
I pulled the cord on my metals trades yesterday and parachuted out. Just in the nick of time by the looks of it so I am pleased especially after seeing silver get kicked squarely in the teeth this morning.
I cannot stand to see a gain evaporate on me!
Yes Mark, let’s see.
I wonder how much China was told by the Fed this time to spend in order to prop their markets up! They spent 22 billion earlier this week to get them in the green, that will only get them above 70 or 80 points, after that it crashes!
NOTE: And now the circuit breakers are gone! NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE FUN!
I don’t have much to say about predicting the year that is upon us now. That’s a mugs game anyway and usually just good for entertainment. Gold did indeed close lower in 2015 than 2014’s close as I have insisted all year though and the bear is not yet dead in metals.
All i wanted to say about the coming year though was this:
Don’t forget the small trades.
You guys all know what I am talking about. Its those frequent set-ups that are good for a couple hundred bucks at most. Usually they are low risk and fast trades. Incredibly most people pass them by preferring instead to hit the periodic killer trades.
I have no idea why it is we don’t make the effort but human psychology is always perplexing. Can you recall anyone here ever talking about earning a percent or two after commissions?
Maybe its just too embarrassing. Instead we are regaled with double digit returns on select purchases that some guys have made. Those are worth talking about of course. But its the little stuff that actually pays off better even though it takes more effort to frequently enter and exit.
And this is why you don’t need to worry about catching exact tops and bottoms. Instead you only need to focus on trending directional moves, take your percentage on the trade and forget about it. Then move on to something else.
They say greed is one of the worst attributes of any trader. Few of us are impressed by a hundred bucks. We look for gains that will return 10, 15, 20% or more depending on leverage and how its played. Some guys don’t get satisfaction unless they see 100% or better.
I just want to remind you all for the coming year that small daily profits on easy pickings compound rather rapidly. Its lower stress and almost always lower risk too. A turtle versus the hare thing if you will.
So pick that fruit if you see it and resist the temptation to overstay your welcome in a fickle market. There is nothing worse than seeing even a modest profit of a few hundred dollars turn into an overnight loss and leave you trapped in a bad position.
We have all been there. The words I hate most are “I should have sold that dog yesterday”!
Small daily profits do add up to big numbers. BIRD
You bet Al. The little stuff really matters but is mostly overlooked by traders. Even a few percent a week beats the averages and will put virtually all the Hedge Funds to shame. So we won’t be shy about small gains and we won’t look foolish by staying mostly in cash most of the time. Sure beats the hell out of holding and taking losses when the larger direction is uncertain at best. And when this next year is over it will be the guys who stayed nimble and did not marry their trades who will be coming out in the green once all is said and done.
LET’S SEE what you have to say next week Birdman when the shit hits the fan again!
He will have his month poked out trying to talk this market back up……..but keep in mind this collapse is getting stronger each and everyday now in 2016! Nothing is going to stop it!
Mark, I will say the same thing next week. My strategy right now is to avoid long positions in general because although I have belief that markets will decline for several months I don’t actually know what the future holds. I don’t care to hold ETF’s or high volatility securities over a weekend for example. So all I said above was that I felt a better play was short-term, modest, high-confidence trades, mostly staying in cash and taking a watch and wait attitude.
What is wrong with that?
But his computer is constantly green Bird !
Don’t you understand ?
LOL.
What I mean to say is, you don’t need home runs to win a baseball game. You might *think* you know the market is going to crash and burn but are you really prepared to make all your bets along those lines?
There is no shame in playing it safe when the future is unknown and unknowable.
That’s some computer Skeeta. Is it a DELL?
………….Or a Commodore 64?
Of course that is all possible, and that may all play out……….I never advocate that it’s the end of the world! I take a logical approach to geo and world economics and conclude logically that this whole system is unraveling before our eves.
…but it’s okay, everyone has their own opinion…….the same atmosphere existed during 2008 and 2009!
………by the way gold and silver are down now, on what news?
Who needs news? Gold made a beautiful 5 wave Elliot move yesterday and topped on the hourly chart. That was all I needed to know to get the hell out of Dodge…. if only for the moment. Keep your eyes peeled for this move down that should set up a buy opportunity for later today or Monday (talking about the hourly chart still but it will be easier to read on the 5 minute). To answer your question about news….all i can say is that gold and silver were technically ready for a pullback. But I do believe they are setting up for a move higher.
Time will tell.
Also Mark….very important. When I am talking about my own trades it usually relates to only the shortest time periods. So when I say I am bullish and that a rally is coming that refers to short term moves of just days or hours…… not large trend changes.
Glad you pointed that out!
Anytime.
The official term for people like me is “Mercenary Scalper”. Not sure I qualify under the investor title.
Hello Bird,
Hope all’s well.
Gotta say I also CONSIDERED reducing some of my light positions on PM stocks yday when I saw the 1110 top. Didn’t really like the price action.
I remembered last year when on the way to the 23rd Jan top there was a kind of “fake” stop/pullback move.
So because of 1) the consideration I just mentioned, 2) being busy w. other names, 3) having not checked gold’s technicals and 4) because I’m still relatively light in the portfolio all things considered (20% invested, as I type, all names considered, even non-PMs) I didn’t take action… we’ll see. But I can see your point though. Again, to me, it was a pretty clear message on the chart.
As I’ve mentioned to Richard privately this week, it’s been months that it is difficult for gold to hold a +$20-25 move intraday – fwiw. This week was no exception.
Best to you,
LPG
Best to you too LPG.
Dow futures up 200 points………..really! ON WHAT NEWS!
Technicals Mark. It was all in the charts yesterday. Its what I was trying to tell you about.
Interesting perspective!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kx_MT1h_Q4c
********* STANDBY FOR ANOTHER FAKE AND PHONY MONTHLY JOBS REPORT!
Also a continued smash in gold and silver……….I mean who really hires big in December!
This ouct to be a doozy!
They always let gold and silver creep back up before they kill it!
We are closing in on completing an A-B-C Elliot wave decline which should set up a buying opportunity on gold this morning if the count is valid. Just keep your eye on it to see what happens next. I would exit the trade before the day is over.
Sounds like sound judgement to me but for now I no longer trade gold, I got out two months ago!
Out of gold, Mark, or out of trading gold?
Out of trading Big Al.
Up 292,000………………..BULL.
Layoffs come next month…….with the snow fall………………
Yes, and they are starting now!
They, Mark?
Macy’s, DuPont, etc, etc!
So why are we at 5%, with this big a number why are we not at 4.9 or 4.8%.
The 5% number will validate the reason for raising the interest rate last month. Plus, it is an easy number for the sheeple to remember………nines and eights mixed with any other number is a used car saleman’s trick……….lol
Used car salesmen and Cabbies. First time I arrived in Cairo and was taken to town from the airport the guy quoted me the price and I accepted even though it was too high.
They use Pounds in Egypt by the way. Anyway, when we got to the hotel and I started to pay him he refused saying that the price was Sterling! “You are a tourist” he said. “I was talking about British Pounds”!
We had a HUGE fight. It almost came to fists. Told him I was American and to screw the hell off.
The Hotel desk clerk could not stop laughing. “Welcome to Egypt” he added.
I bet the cabbie was an EXPAT from America………………..one of those NEW YORK cabbies…….lol
Sounds like one of those experiences from ROD STERLINGS………twilight zone, where the guy did not know the difference between pound cake, and pound sand.
Ha Ha! Pound sand eh? Only in the Sahara.
The big top circus plays on!
Gold down with the sure cure of the chinese circulation breakers………..the heartless fed could not take anymore increasing in the life blood of the longs…………..lol.
Here is one just for Doc. The nice folks over at UBS see a commodity rally beginning in the second half of 2016. Pretty much exactly your own call. Read on at ZH….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-07/commodities-next-great-depression
Bird,
Richard got this in his email inbox from me already, w. EXACTLY the same comments you made. 🙂
BUT…
I suspect will read your comment here before he checks his inbox and sees the email 🙂
Have a good one for the rest of the day, and the WE.
Best to you,
LPG
Like minds eh? Pretty funny LPG. Hopefully we hear from Doc today.
It doesn’t look good, that’s for sure:
http://schrts.co/i6Zsga