Pundit's Perspectives – Fri 8 Jan, 2016

Let’s look at the long-term cycles in gold

The chart below produced by The Chart Store provides a great overview of the long-term cycles in gold.

I am always impressed at the consistency of these longer term cycles. As you can see, since the mid 70s the normal length of the cycle is between 394 and 444 weeks. Considering this current cycle is 373 weeks we should expect at least another 20 weeks before the final bottom is in place. While this might not sound like good news the fact is we have already lived through the largest portion of the decline. Watch for the middle to end of the year to be when gold puts in its true bottom!

 


Comments:
  1. On January 8, 2016 at 9:34 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I am waiting patiently for gold to go to 5K or 10K.

  2. On January 8, 2016 at 9:54 am,
    tom says:

    thanks, this is a great chart

  3. On January 8, 2016 at 10:11 am,
    bb says:

    How come its not a big double top, cant get thru resistance, and is in for the big “tank”?

    Maybe thats how Dent sees it?

    • On January 8, 2016 at 11:57 am,
      Birdman says:

      Funny, it is a big double top. The retrace would eventually take us to 214 dollars back in 1970!

      If you look at that chart critically you can also see that the next big bull cycle is probably going to be nothing more than the completion of the right shoulder in a massive Head and Shoulder formation created between 2001 and today.

      That’s not a continuation pattern of a secular bull market. It would prove we are in a secular bear once and for all. Not long to wait to find out. If gold rises but then fails at the 2008 peak the argument will finally be over.

  4. On January 8, 2016 at 10:33 am,
    Peter R. says:

    pretty easy to argue against the cycles they have selected. I would stick with fundamentals on a long term chart not cycles. keep the cycles for short term charts.

  5. On January 8, 2016 at 10:44 am,
    Matthew says:

    That chart is extremely distorted due to the corrupt ways in which the government measures CPI.
    The Shadow Stats version is far closer to reality:
    https://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/channels/article_default/150421InflationAdjustedGoldPriceUsing1980CPIFormula.png

    • On January 8, 2016 at 11:59 am,
      Birdman says:

      Thank you. I must say I prefer the chart you posted by far to the one Cory has linked.

    • On January 8, 2016 at 3:49 pm,
      Tad says:

      Me too ! This chart makes me feel a lot better 🙂
      Thanks Matthew.

    • On January 8, 2016 at 9:52 pm,
      Matthew says:

      In case anyone didn’t notice, the Shadow Stats chart simply used the same CPI formula that the government used 35 years ago — before it corrupted it beyond all recognition.

  6. On January 8, 2016 at 9:58 pm,
    Matthew says:

    10 year U.S. T-Note priced in gold:
    http://schrts.co/Z1EvHQ
    (monthly)
    As you can see, it is now at some resistance but the uptrend is intact.