Pundit's Perspectives – Tue 12 Jan, 2016

2016 Stock Market Outlook: Why Wall Street Expects 7%-11% Upside

What follows is a bit of a contrary opinion to those who believe that we will witness a major crash in the conventional equities markets this year.

“A best-selling personal finance guru, a behavioral economics columnist at MarketWatch, aHarvard-educated economist and other notable financial experts all warn the stock market is going to hell in 2016. Wall Street’s major powerhouses, on the other hand, beg to differ. They see the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), rallying anywhere from 7% to 11% from current levels amid continued economic growth, robust consumer spending and reasonable stock valuations among myriad other reasons.

The S&P 500’s bull run that kicked off 81 months ago has advanced 200% from its March 2009 low.  As the third longest uptrend since 1932, it surpasses the average bull market gain of 138%, according to UBS. Julian Emanuel, a strategist at UBS and his colleagues, wrote in a “U.S. Outlook 2016” report this week: the S&P 500 will end 2016 at 2,275 amid modest earnings growth and rising interest rates. That level translates to $227.50 for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — up 11% from Thursday’s close.

“That said, no bull market since before the 1970s has ended without a recession and both our U.S. economics team and our U.S. credit strategy team do not forecast a near term recession.”

UBS added: “Simply put, barring an unforeseen external shock or a recession, if earnings continue to improve, 2016 should be a positive year for U.S. equities. Regardless, we continue to expect further volatility – which, in essence, means higher risk, both upside and downside.”