Pundit's Perspectives – Tue 12 Jan, 2016

2016 Stock Market Outlook: Why Wall Street Expects 7%-11% Upside

What follows is a bit of a contrary opinion to those who believe that we will witness a major crash in the conventional equities markets this year.

“A best-selling personal finance guru, a behavioral economics columnist at MarketWatch, aHarvard-educated economist and other notable financial experts all warn the stock market is going to hell in 2016. Wall Street’s major powerhouses, on the other hand, beg to differ. They see the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), rallying anywhere from 7% to 11% from current levels amid continued economic growth, robust consumer spending and reasonable stock valuations among myriad other reasons.

The S&P 500’s bull run that kicked off 81 months ago has advanced 200% from its March 2009 low.  As the third longest uptrend since 1932, it surpasses the average bull market gain of 138%, according to UBS. Julian Emanuel, a strategist at UBS and his colleagues, wrote in a “U.S. Outlook 2016” report this week: the S&P 500 will end 2016 at 2,275 amid modest earnings growth and rising interest rates. That level translates to $227.50 for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — up 11% from Thursday’s close.

 “Though skeptics could point to the extent of gains, as well as the length of the rally since 2009, as sufficient rationale to believe a bear market is ‘due,’ we highlight that although the current rally is extended in both time and price, it is only the third longest and fifth largest rally since the Great Depression,” UBS wrote.

“That said, no bull market since before the 1970s has ended without a recession and both our U.S. economics team and our U.S. credit strategy team do not forecast a near term recession.”

UBS added: “Simply put, barring an unforeseen external shock or a recession, if earnings continue to improve, 2016 should be a positive year for U.S. equities. Regardless, we continue to expect further volatility – which, in essence, means higher risk, both upside and downside.”


Comments:
  1. On January 12, 2016 at 9:25 am,
    Chris in Philippines Islands says:

    Smoking their own dope…..

    • On January 12, 2016 at 12:39 pm,
      lrishtony says:

      Chris…Not just dope, with those figures, they must also be smoking their granny’s knickers.

      • On January 12, 2016 at 12:41 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Granny’s knickers?

        • On January 12, 2016 at 1:19 pm,
          lrishtony says:

          AL…Just another way of saying they have lost the plot.

      • On January 12, 2016 at 1:08 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Gross.

        • On January 12, 2016 at 1:22 pm,
          lrishtony says:

          YES Excelsior….You can buy them by the GROSS

          • On January 12, 2016 at 3:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Whew…..That’s a relief. I may start smoking granny’s knickers by the gross if I read about 7-11% growth in the S&P for the year.

  2. On January 12, 2016 at 9:25 am,
    gregd says:

    Well, I guess if they mean the markets going up 7 to 11% gains this year, they really mean continued intervention by the fed, I can see that a slight gain is possible but not anything close to 7%.

  3. On January 12, 2016 at 9:44 am,
    bj says:
    • On January 12, 2016 at 11:21 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Slick WILLIE, will just have to scrub the bills a little harder……………..lol

    • On January 12, 2016 at 12:59 pm,
      Big Al says:

      And, Mrs Clinton remains the front runner!

      • On January 12, 2016 at 1:24 pm,
        lrishtony says:

        AL..Its a bent game, & the more benter you are , then the greater your chances.

  4. On January 12, 2016 at 10:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    7 to 11, +227? Not gonna happen.