Cory's Insights – Mon 18 Jan, 2016

A check-in with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow

If the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is actuate for Q4 2015 the numbers are not looking good. Throughout 2015 (when I started following GDPNow) the model has been able to accurately predict GDP for the most recent quarter to within a fraction of the actual reported numbers.

Looking at the chart below and considering the current prediction of Q4 GDP growth of only 0.6%, the US economy is struggling. Weak retail sales over the holiday season is the recent scapegoat for the declining model. The fact remains that the US is stuck in a slow growth environment much like the rest of the world. Unlike the rest of the world the Fed recently increased interest rates… I think the next rate rise in March will be pushed off as the data is not looking favorable right now.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast


Featuring:
Cory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On January 18, 2016 at 9:52 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Koch …..charging .50 per….to take oil……….oil going negative……zerohedge.

  2. On January 18, 2016 at 10:16 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Houghton Lake, Michigan……………..gas….. .47cents per gallon……….Doc, you should be liking this one……………….lol(source aol)

    • On January 18, 2016 at 10:28 am,
      Ebolan says:

      In Colliefornia (as Ahnode Schwarzenwhatever calls it) gas is headed back up. Over $3 a gallon in several parts of the state. Thanks to Arnie’s AB 32 (Carbon Tax) and various other taxes from DemoNRats. Just wait until oil is back to $80 a gallon.

      • On January 18, 2016 at 10:32 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Gas going up…….because Jerry B. is on the take…………jmho

        • On January 18, 2016 at 10:53 am,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          Add to my statement….This could be considered as false information , so, Jerry B…….sorry, we want to be politically correct………

          • On January 18, 2016 at 12:21 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            Brown and the vast majority of politicians there (and everywhere else) absolutely put the special interests first and the tax suckers last so in that sense they are all on the take. There is not denying that.

          • On January 18, 2016 at 12:41 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            I will go along with your statement……….because I know you would not mislead the family…………………..ootb

        • On January 18, 2016 at 1:12 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Got a source?

    • On January 18, 2016 at 11:05 am,
      RICHARD (DOC) says:

      Frank, I would have to move a little farther north into the REALLY cold country.

      • On January 18, 2016 at 11:22 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        I guess you could go to Flint , and take the lead out…… maybe the gas seltzer would be better than the drinking water………

      • On January 18, 2016 at 3:11 pm,
        Gator says:

        DOC..you are a sick puppy..I am considering moving further south from Orlando because of the cold…below 50 is very uncomfortable…

  3. On January 18, 2016 at 10:31 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Italian Banks in trouble……….
    Brazil unemployment doubles……..
    China….stops reporting gold at the SGE
    Oil under $30
    GOOD START TO THE WEEK. …….as in WEAK ECONOMY….

    • On January 18, 2016 at 1:20 pm,
      Big Al says:

      You need professional help Doc

      • On January 18, 2016 at 1:23 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Read the article.”Much Ado About Nothing” as Zero Hedge does not have the power, at least yet, for these demands to be met.

        • On January 18, 2016 at 1:25 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          Read it already………..the FED is not going to answer anything it does not want to jawbone in their benefit.

          • On January 18, 2016 at 4:19 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Well of course Frank.

      • On January 18, 2016 at 1:23 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Doc is a great guy……….got some great charts……….and sound wisdom.

  4. On January 18, 2016 at 1:08 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    The Fed Responds To Zero Hedge: Here Are Some Follow Up Questions

    Over the weekend, we gave the Dallas Fed a chance to respond to a Zero Hedge story corroborated by at least two independent sources, in which we reported that Federal Reserve members had met with bank lenders with distressed loan exposure to the US oil and gas sector and, after parsing through the complete bank books, had advised banks to i) not urge creditor counterparties into default, ii) urge asset sales instead, and iii) ultimately suspend mark to market in various instances.

    Moments ago the Dallas Fed, whose president since September 2015 is Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Goldman Sachs career banker who after 22 years at the bank rose to the rank of vice chairman of its investment bank group – an odd background for a regional Fed president – took the time away from its holiday schedule to respond to Zero Hedge.

    This is what it said.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-18/fed-responds-zero-hedge-here-are-some-follow-questions

  5. On January 18, 2016 at 10:19 pm,
    Chris in Philippines Islands says:

    Thanks Cory!