Cory's Insights – Mon 18 Jan, 2016
A check-in with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow
If the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is actuate for Q4 2015 the numbers are not looking good. Throughout 2015 (when I started following GDPNow) the model has been able to accurately predict GDP for the most recent quarter to within a fraction of the actual reported numbers.
Looking at the chart below and considering the current prediction of Q4 GDP growth of only 0.6%, the US economy is struggling. Weak retail sales over the holiday season is the recent scapegoat for the declining model. The fact remains that the US is stuck in a slow growth environment much like the rest of the world. Unlike the rest of the world the Fed recently increased interest rates… I think the next rate rise in March will be pushed off as the data is not looking favorable right now.