Doc is looking for corrections in gold and not much good happening for oil.
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As always, thank you Matthew.
Hey Big Al, look at this fancy picture of two dapper gentlemen at Jay’s site:
classy.
Look @ the ADX for 18Feb2014 + 2 weeks: Similar pattern as today?
Yes very similar. It gets more interesting when we look at the gold miners (GDX) using the same indicators + the SCTR line. The action is much different today than in 2014. There is clearly the potential for a violent correction like J. Flanagan talked about but from a weekly chart perspective, this move could have a long way to go.
Of course, we don’t want more than a healthy pullback for gold before heading for the 1180 target that Peter Brandt talked about. I think no more than ten or fifteen dollars would be ideal.
Today’s pullback is just the kind I was talking about. It’s been sharp enough to scare many bulls and embolden the bears and that equals fuel for the next leg higher. GLD filed yesterday’s gap and volume has been unimpressive so far. So today’s action has been good for the bullish case.
Gold does this all the time. It makes one wonder why. Since the run is young it may continue for another month or two. Summer might be a good opportunity to buy but nobody know at what level.
I don’t wonder why. It is overbought on the daily chart so it makes sense that we would see a confluence of selling by profit-taking bulls, short selling hedgers, short selling bears, top-calling and profit-taking agnostics, AND, because of all those sellers, stop-loss selling by those who piled-on into strength.
I do think the run is young from a weekly chart perspective but it is probably near its end from a daily chart perspective. So there will likely be some impressive volatility.
Great thoughts up above Matthew. I’m on the same page….Gold was overbought on the daily and needed to pullback, but as you mentioned “a healthy pullback.”
I sold yesterday in the strength but bought back a few positions in the morning on the pull back to see if Gold can get up to $1184.30 or the $1191 target next week. Then I am expecting the rally to top out for a bit and consolidate.
I am looking for the 1180-1190 area before selling. Hope it gets there. Otherwise, keep holding all.
Nice chart – esp. the trendline – thanks.
BDI………..UNDER 300 , …FIRST TIME EVER………..297…. this one is for MARK. 🙂
Kudos to mark.
DITTO………..
Irish, Peter Hug, had some good words for silver …..cheers…..
sorry, I meant Peter Brandt……….
LOL
Another 2%. Darn it!
The last time it hit a serious all time low; albeit somewhere around 550, was in 1986 and this signalled the 1987 collapse.
Obama is an economic midget.
He needs to cut CUT corporate tax, to stimulate the economy.
The next two Fibonacci based weekly EMA resistance levels are currently at 1186 and 1210:
On the monthly chart, the next two are at 1180 and 1201:
Big move for Americas Silver today:
http://schrts.co/dmhqvw
(Stockcharts thinks it’s still Scorpio Mining)
🙂
Americas Silver Corporation Announces 2015 Production and Costs, 2016 Guidance and U.S. $2.9 Million Credit Facility
TORONTO, ONTARIO—February 4, 2016—
Note: The Company will change its TSX trading symbol
from SPM to USA effective February 8, 2016.
What jumped out at me on this release from Americas Silver Corp is that they hit their 2015 Guidance, and had an AISC of $17.16 for the year…..but check out their guidance for 2016. They are targeted an AISC of $11.75-$12.75!!! Wow that is a big improvement and puts them in the profit zone….
2016 Guidance
Silver Production 2.5‐3.0M oz.
Silver Equivalent Production (including base metals) 5.0‐5.6M oz.
Silver Cash Costs $9.00 ‐ $10.00/oz.
Silver All‐In Sustaining Costs $11.75 ‐ $12.75/oz.
With so much cost cutting possible across the whole sector, it just shows these things are like mini governments — gluttonous when they can get away with it.
Yeah. Why weren’t the companies doing this from 2001-2011? They may have actually had some room to wiggle and would have returned some real value to shareholders.
I am excited though to see so many companies getting their cost in line for 2016, because when metals prices do recover, they’ll finally have some free cash flow.
In an industry where self-dealing runs rampant, honest, competent management is worth searching for.
To your statement, it is exciting though isn’t it?
I could not figure out which way the vix is going so I sold out. I should have bought back my oil positions yesterday or the day before and selling today for a huge gain. I thought oil would fall for a few days but it is starting to bounce back quickly these days on any rumours. Oil should head down again once the news wears off on production cuts as any agreements could take weeks and months.
T.BOONE PICKENS thinks oil is headed lower……sells all oil holdings…..
One last big drop is left for oil and the markets should fall hard too. S&P has again failed to hold 1900 and should head to 1800 where it could bounce back or fail. Only gold stocks are worth holding now.
We may have a few big down turn before the summer. And then oil will rise.
Agreed. BBands are narrowing on VIXY. It’s getting close.
1060.44……new territory overnight……Friday….
OIL……………T.BOONE PICKENS……….SELLs ALL oil holdings…………..zerohedge
Traders move 750million into GLD…………….KWN.
Further,…………mumbo jumbo on the 5th wave diagonal , seems to be completing on GLD, per 321gold article by Avi esquire… 🙂
Talking about MUMBO JUMBO………….US PAYROLL REPORT OUT TODAY…….more like out to lunch.
Excelsior,
Nice call @ 1160!
Thanks Chartster. Gold tagged resistance and then retreated……
My target was $1160.40 and it actually hit $1160.80 twice, and then hit $1161.40.
I’ll try harder next time 🙂
Glad I trimmed a number of mining positions yesterday. Now I’m trying to figure out if this is the pullback before the move to $1184.30 or if the rally has topped. I may buy a few things back on sale today and try for one more move up. Still debating it.
It looks like one of those JDST, SCO, VIXY days…
But I agree, still could reverse here.
The Dow is having a lot of trouble with 618 Fibonacci fan resistance. New lows could come sooner than many think.
In light of Hillary’s comments about her foreign policy experience yesterday:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/01/23/putin-calls-out-obama-on-big-lie.html
I saw an very interesting comments for US oil.
”
cender wrote: Noticed oil imports for last week at 7.8 million barrels/day , that would account for the huge build as last year at this time imports were only 6.8 million b/d . Also jumped 600k from preceding week . A lot of games being played here so unless you have accurate global data on all storage(next to impossible) then we must sit tight and wait for everything to balance out ,fear to dissipate and logic to return to this toxic market .
Goldman cannot resist adding to the fear factor : “Goldman Sachs in a note on Monday said volatility in the oil price, which is at its highest since the collapse of failed U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008, could reach 100 percent as storage capacity comes under pressure.”
Last week Goldman was saying wait for the oil futures curve to flatten out before diving in , basically futures prices need to be priced such that they are only accounting for storage fees with no ‘hope’ priced in – that is currently the case . Front month cash price will firm up as supplies become tighter .
All of this seems rather odd when you consider the world is using 2 million more barrels per day than last year at this time. The price drop seems like it is about $40 beyond where it should have stopped . Politically driven punishment of several oil producing countries seems to be the only logical explanation .
”
It is very very interesting time. Facts conflict with explanations.
Oil is still holding but about to fall hard but the market is already falling hard. When oil starts the next big move down it will be game over for the market and we will see another crash lasting a few days.
Someone has speculated that FED already bailed out the banks secretly based on huge drop on FED balance sheet and the timing of the FED closed door meeting.
For oil sector.
Not a recommendation, but some food-related stocks are intersting:
e.g. tyson foods, TSN
Tyson Foods’ first quarter profits soared past expectations as the meat giant added $461 million to its corporate coffers to begin fiscal 2016. Net Income rose 49% from the same period of last year with strong results in chicken and a turnaround in beef, the company reported Friday morning (Feb. 5).
Springdale-based Tyson Foods earned $1.15 per share in the fiscal first quarter, well above the 89 cents Wall Street analysts predicted, and the 87 cents recorded a year ago. Sales revenue topped $9.152 billion in the quarter, dampened by lower overall sales volume in chicken, beef and pork while also facing deflationary prices. Revenue fell from the $10.817 billion reported a year ago.
How about COP? Any insight look at it. It just cut dividend as it should do.
Gold is overbought but could (not will) stay that way while the move extends.
http://schrts.co/zt8KAP