Lawrie Williams – Fri 5 Feb, 2016

Lawrie’s latest missive, for those of you who didn’t receive it is more than a little bit interesting.

SGE IS publishing gold withdrawal figures – but only monthly

I am indebted to Koos Jansen (who else) of www.bullionstar.com for initially guiding us in the right direction, and to LawrieOnGold reader John Bentin and his Chinese speaking wife for interpreting the tables, in that, contrary to our previous assumptions, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is still publishing SGE gold withdrawal data – but now only on a monthly, rather than a weekly, basis.  Thus for January 2016, some 225.1 tonnes were withdrawn from the Exchange, compared with 255.4 tonnes in the first month of the record 2015 year when full year deliveries reached 2,596.4 tonnes.  The amount is close to the 228.2 tonnes recorded in December last year, and ahead of November 2015 deliveries of 202.7 tonnes.  In January 2013, the previous record year for SGE deliveries, only 173.7 tonnes were delivered out of the SGE.

Given there can be quite substantial month-to-month fluctuations in withdrawals it is far too early to tell how 2016 will measure up to last year, but the figures do show that gold demand as represented by SGE withdrawals remains at a strong level – 56.3 tonnes  a week on average.  However it remains to be seen how the surge in the gold price over the past few weeks will affect February deliveries (which are anyway likely to be substantially lower due to the week-long Chinese New Year celebrations next week during which the SGE will be closed.)  We will really need to wait until March and April to see how 2016 deliveries are measuring up to previous years.

Even so, the January figures are quite encouraging in showing that gold demand has indeed been holding up pretty well so far.  Overall China and India, where gold imports of over 100 tonnes were recorded in November, look like remaining the key gold market drivers.  We are also seeing a pick up in a third key market, the U.S. where there have been strong gold ETF inflows year to date, and very strong demand for gold coins from the U.S. Mint.  With the gold price up 9% year to date the yellow metal is currently outperforming any other asset class.

(But, be warned.  Gold started off strongly in January 2015 too, also rising by around 9% in the first three weeks of the year.  But from then it was almost all downhill.  This year’s upturn is looking perhaps stronger and longer, and does seem to have more going for it than a year ago, but the price is still largely set by the COMEX paper gold market in New York where huge amounts of virtual metal are traded on a daily basis and there may well be other forces at play here which seem to ignore fundamentals.  Could this yet be déjà vu all over again!!)

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Comments:
  1. On February 5, 2016 at 12:25 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold has a lot more going for it this year than a year ago. This move is just beginning…

    http://schrts.co/iDHIWS

    • On February 5, 2016 at 12:27 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      BIG DITTO ON THAT ONE………………

      • On February 5, 2016 at 12:41 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Just looked at the weekly chart……….nice run for the week………jmho

        • On February 5, 2016 at 2:20 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed. The weekly chart breaking out of the descending wedge is a positive indicator for 2016. It’s going to be a fun year!

      • On February 5, 2016 at 1:18 pm,
        SD Marc says:

        Ditto…guys cautiously optimistic…that the tide is turning but…………..:)))

        • On February 5, 2016 at 1:29 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          Caution, …..DAMN THE TORPEDOs……full steam ahead………. 🙂

  2. On February 5, 2016 at 12:27 pm,
    Matthew says:

    USD: As long as the weekly chart is a SELL, daily chart rallies should be sold…

    http://schrts.co/yjqW87

  3. On February 5, 2016 at 12:33 pm,
    Matthew says:

    SPY:GLD now below the 500 day EMA:

    http://schrts.co/MTVObM

  4. On February 5, 2016 at 12:35 pm,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    GOLD MAKING A NICE FRIDAY RUN………………..1168

    • On February 5, 2016 at 12:36 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Wonder if there is any gold remaining on the COMEX……….. 🙂

      • On February 5, 2016 at 12:40 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        nice week…………..1120……to 1168………best week in a long time.

        • On February 5, 2016 at 12:45 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          1171……….all aboard……………..the train is leaving the station……. 🙂

          • On February 5, 2016 at 12:47 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            1173……

          • On February 5, 2016 at 12:49 pm,
            Lore says:

            Shhhh…. Don’t jinx it. 🙂

          • On February 5, 2016 at 12:53 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            mums the word………. ok, ….. 🙂

        • On February 5, 2016 at 1:03 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          CLOSED………….1174.48……………..HELLO, looking good………….

          • On February 5, 2016 at 2:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Fantastico!

      • On February 5, 2016 at 1:19 pm,
        SD Marc says:

        Jerry
        OF COURSE THERE IS….common…:))))!!!! lol!

        • On February 5, 2016 at 1:27 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          hello Marc………….. I was hoping COMEX would close shop……..

          • On February 5, 2016 at 1:28 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Heck of a run this week…..daylight at last…….

  5. On February 5, 2016 at 1:05 pm,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Finally……………Silver over $15……..

  6. On February 5, 2016 at 1:08 pm,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Maybe to take cover early next week Frank as Doc advises…

    • On February 5, 2016 at 1:16 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Could be right…….been a nice month…….and very well might need a rest.

      • On February 5, 2016 at 2:23 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I agree that Gold will need a rest, after a move like today it may pullback some Monday, but I am curious to see if it will test the $1184.30 target, or Ricks $1191 target before resting.

        • On February 5, 2016 at 2:26 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          I say test the 1191…..

          • On February 5, 2016 at 2:27 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            But, nothing would surprise me at this point……..

  7. On February 5, 2016 at 7:08 pm,
    Matthew says:

    GDX will be ten years old in a couple of months and just had its best week ever — +18.88%.

    The runner up happened after the crash low in 2008 at +16.41%.

    The week that just ended also set a new volume record for weeks that finished higher and was the third highest overall. The down-week volume record probably won’t be broken by another down week until we’ve seen a very long term high.

    The volume pattern the last three days was just as impressive. You don’t typically see a massive volume day followed by two successive days of even higher volume.

    http://schrts.co/7BCRec

    • On February 5, 2016 at 7:14 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It took almost 8 months but GDX also finally obtained a weekly close above the 2008 weekly low close.

      http://schrts.co/i1mHcm

  8. On February 5, 2016 at 7:22 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Both GDX and GDXJ registered their highest weekly RSI readings in 18 months -and well above the important 50 level. This is significant.