Monday Market Commentary with both Doc and Jay
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The conventional equities are beginning to firm up a bit this Monday mid-morning as the gold market weakens just a bit. Will this trend continue throughout the day?
I guess what I am asking is if you had to pick 3 PM companies to start to accumulate and hold for a longer term, what would they be?
Pardu, there are so many good looking companies out there. I’ll just list a number of them that I hold and am planning on purchasing on the next pull back. I’ve held CRJ since it’s lows along with RIC. Speculative explorers I like are KOR,AXR, MRZ and KAM.. Also I like TGM, OGC, PVG, KDX, KGI, GPL,EXK,PAAS. There are others but I hope you get my drift. I’m primarily focusing on some current producers and there is no hurry to buy the explorers although I own one of them and will buy the others on the next pull back.
Doc,
Do you think that ongoing thrust in miners have more room to run? Almost all major producers eg KGC, AUY, PAAS are trading above their 200 MA. We haven’t seen this type of intensity like they moved higher (last week and today) in a really LONG time. Any rational assessment would tell, there’s a consolidation coming but again this is unlike we have seen in the past.
Thanks Doc.
Cali, personally I wouldn’t touch any of these miners at these prices. There will be pull backs for most of them and consolidations.
Doc, do you think PPP has bottomed? Thanks.
Bonzo, expect a bounce in the next 5-7 trading days but don’t expect any significant move up for weeks. I’m keeping my eye on PPP since I think this sell off and the continual sell off may be a great buying opportunity.
Thanks, Doc. I’d like to buy more PPP during this panic.
I think the Venture Exchange has put in a long term low…
Hope so, Matthew
As an amateur in technical analysis, there have been a lot of gaps up, which should be filled and there are now a lot of overbought situations (RSI over 70)
But fundamentals give LONG term evaluations, Doc.
PEAK DEBT…………….you bet…………..
The 100 week moving average is a likely spot for gold to correct from.
Plan on buying the dip though. There is going to be a second leg up that should be almost as big as this first leg.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/02/golds-short-term-direction.html
BIGGER……………..
Gary, please stop advertising on our site. Thank you.
Big Al, Please excuse Gary……I thought his blog post today explained his thoughts on gold quite well and was most informative.
(NOT just an ad for his services)
Fair enough CFS
I thought Gary’s video was a very plausible projection of what to expect over the next few weeks and months with the 100 week MA as a potential ceiling, then a pullback, and then a potential 2nd wave higher, and then a pullback for a few months into the spring summer. I plan on trimming some of my mining shares up slightly above the 1200 level and buying them back when they retrace a bit.
Al…guess I don’t understand…Gary contributes to this site with information valuable to all and because he links his site to his commentary you ask him to stop advertising….am I missing something here? or were you joking when you made the statement..if that is the case then please excuse this post…regards..
+1 CFS and Gator
I’m not a subscriber of Gary’s but he is right about how to play these intermediate term lows. Why anyone wouldn’t recommend buying the heck out of the recent low is beyond me, yet I don’t think another guest recommended doing so. I would not be comforted by someone saying after a 40-50% move, “don’t worry, we’ll get a pullback, no big deal.”
Gary should get a grandstand and a megaphone he really likes being heard. Maybe Al you could send him to The Korelin clinic for an adjustment. DT
when you’re seldom right Dick Tracy, you have to take advantage of the publicity you can garner for subscribing lemmings to your website
I don;t know why people are so cynical about Gary. Did a lot of people lose money following his forecasts? That is very possible… However, ultimately you have to take responsibility for your own trading decisions. No guru can make money for you in the long term. As Russian proverb says, ‘Don’t listen to others. Trust your own bad eyes’. And be willing to make mistakes and to learn from mistakes. Different analysts will speak what they think is going on. But the trading orders will have your name on it, not theirs.
I completely agree with you Jay Linn
We want to provide a forum for all valuable contributors. And we soon will get this straightened out.
Please do Al.
IMO Gary is a very valuable contributor (and probably drives a lot of traffic to this site…I know I check it more often when I know he’s contributing) and has not gone any further beyond what I’d consider reasonable back and forth than some other major contributors.
It seems people are very unwilling to forgive Gary for the wrong call on gold’s bottom at the end of last year, but as far as I know he’s good at getting people out without getting burned too badly on his calls. He also admitted he was wrong with good nature (“dang it, it looks like Doc is going to be right”).
People (including me) need to extend a little more grace in all directions IMHO.
Of course Jay T and so do I, obviously.
Gary has been spot on. He predicted this move weeks ago. Doc you were negative the entire way through. I realise that perfect timing is very difficult but this time Gary you were dead right.
Thanks, Gary
Thanks Gary
Mr. Taylor’s closing comments equal my own general thoughts. What many of these analysts are saying, including Gary, aren’t mutually exclusive. Their comments differ only in the way they express themselves and in their thoughts on timing. Both Doc and Gary are looking for a correction from the Jan. lows in PMs. It’s obvious to most that it will happen. If there is a surprise lurking out there, it could be in the degree of the correction, which is the puzzle for traders to solve if they try to trade a volatile market. JMO
Agreed, Slverdollar
do not forget the “beachball” theory……….
The beach ball being released underwater creates a short-covering rally and this then attracts momentum traders. It is also fun to listen to the Beach Boys “Surfing USA” when trading these Beach Ball rallies:
Sold my holdings in Goldcorp. Phew – a small claw-back on hefty losses. Thanks Doc I didn’t want to push my luck too far!!
Oh, Ye, of little faith! ;>}
good one……… 🙂
No faith in the ceo CFS. lol.
Bernard Dahdah(Winning analyst in the 2015 precious metals forecast,second i the silver forecast)expects the gold price to drop trough 1000 by april “gradually declining” to end this year at 950 with an annual avarage of 970
Doc,do you Think this is possible.
Pete, anything is possible. What if the FED comes out in March and to everyones’ surprise increases rates again. Can you imaging what that would do to the PMs? What you want to watch is the kind of sell off of the PMs toward the end of Feb and March when it begins. If it’s sharp, it could be the beginnings of a more vicious move to the end of the year. I never rule out the possibility of getting back down into the 1000 range. It’s always good to surmise possible scenarios but buying into a certain scenario and holding and trying to prove that scenario wrong when it goes against you is a very dangerous game. What’s nice is the technicals will ultimately tell us going forward whether December’s low is a good possibility or whether we move back down further toward 1000. As the year unfolds and we move deeper into it, we should be able to predict with greater certainty.
Thank you Doc.
Al…I believe when you had Gary on your weekend show (I’m sure his time and analysis was complimentary) added much. You gave out his web site address. Gary actually gave some good info today that people could sink their teeth into rather than, “I’ll know more, etc.”
ditto
See my response to Dragonite.
I did, and my comment to you was……..He was your fan first……… 🙂
Marc, as I have said many times in the past, I have nothing against Gary at all.
He simply causes too much drama as have others in the past.
We have had people contact us saying that they came to our site and when they realized all the drama that existed there, they chose not to return.
Al…it looked to me like the drama stopped when bird left…personally I don’t see anything wrong with intense sometimes argumentative debates..it breaks the monotony and solidifies ones position…
ditto
DITTO.
Ditto, as long as it doesn’t become personal
Agreed. I actually enjoy a spirited debate, and really enjoyed some of his analysis and commentary, but he always made it personal, insulted others, and got ugly.
Excelsior are you referring to Abu?
WHO?……TWEETY………the song bird of joy……….I did enjoy his humor , well, every once in awhile. Ditto……. 🙂
I did as well and when he played nice it was awesome, but he’d pick at people or find reasons to argue and then insult the person or mock their reference and nothing constructive ever comes of that.
Dr Jekyll was fine, but Mr Hyde needed his hide spanked on occasion.
Now, that is true. Although most of us here miss Bird.
And that’s evidence that something’s wrong with most people.
Matthew – LOL. He did offer thought provoking viewpoints. He just wasn’t good at being nice.
Al – that’s very gracious of you considering the things he said on his way out.
My last comment on the topic.
Seems to me the drama was caused by a small but dedicated group of Gary bashers, and they’ve won. Oh well. It’s easy enough to access Gary’s info at his site.
Rev; GG could hit 16 or a little higher but it’s always wise to pick up profits sometimes instead of riding a stock down for no gain. I sold my UVXY this morning for a nice profit and will wait to get back in it if I’m fortunate.
I think we both sold the vix too early. I sold vixy at 18.18 at the open and it went to 19.
Paul L – I’ve held TVIX over the last few sessions and will probably sell it today.
Just to confirm, I did sell my TVIX position today. I’m expecting the markets to start heading back up soon, but if they completely fall out of bed then I may jump back in.
For now, I’m planning on volatility to calm down a little over the next week or so.
If we call a $40 move today “big” then I would say a drop to $1120 (-$80 about) is “big”.
So, fair to say, we have a “big” drop to look forward to.
My understanding, we come down to (about) $1120.
Beginning March we start to drop from this current spike, Until about May, then, we bounce,and should the Aug lows stay above about $1120, then, its “over for he bears” in gold, but until that plays out, sounds like the bears have another hoorah, so not quite over for bears yet.
More info in May.
I think we come down again, demand is till met with available supply and Venezuela has a few tons to help the price stay down.
I think there will be other sellers due to repaying loans in American dollars.
I wouldn’t call this modest step towards price recovery a spike or a bubble at all. Just a very minor recovery in price and there is a long way up to go before it reaches the theoretical exchange rate and starts to become over priced…. Still this price movement today is nice to see for a change.
GOLD LOOKING GOOD , going into the afternoon…………1197………if it punches through 1200………….new game on…….
Doc figure it comes down even if we do get to about $1200 or a bit higher.
Heck, maybe Polney will finally be right and we go to a couple thousand. lol
I think we are in a game changer…………as I have said before.
We are now pushing on the ceiling………1199………
Charts showing 1200.65 today, so it punched through……..
Where’s Gary?
DOC.
Do you think TCK.b is a good short at this point after its recent run up.
Tony, I take it you mean Teck Resources—TCK. Sometime in the next 2 weeks the odds are it should move below 4. If it continues to move lower after that for the next 2 weeks, it’s going lower. Ask me to look at the chart if it gets below 4 again. I’ll try to remember to give some followup at that point. Like I said the odds are it takes out 4 again in the not distant future.
Exxon is now well above the 50 and 200 day today. Up 1.25% now at over $81.
Doc – I am a raving fan! In your opinion is it too risky and too late in the game to take a position in DUST for the coming short term move down in precious metals? I am required to hold positions for no less than 30 days and I’m concerned the move down could be fairly sharp and somewhat brief (less than 30 days).
Chuck, like gold I believe some of these miners may levitate yet for a short time—-I’m not giving investment advice but if I had only 30 days I might take that position sometime next week. A lot of these miners might have to double top yet and a lot of them had some huge reversals today—-and that’s all with gold off only 10 dollars from its’ high.
Throw the gold techicals out the window in 2016.
You think, Ronny?
I do. Looking at what happened to the banks today. Something is in the air. Deutsche Bank down almost a whopping 10%, Santender down over 6%, Barclays down almost 5%. Citigroup down over 5%. 2008 we had some big banks crash. Looks like history is repeating. If its not the banks. It could be a oil giant to crash. How long can they pump oil at $30. Dry Baltic Index down to 297 unheard of. Junk bonds crashing. There are so many things that could go wrong and not many could go right. Saying gold will be a certain price by May based on technicals I believe is a recipe to be wrong. We have no idea what will happen to these markets by then. Were going to see a few big black swans this year. Which will be extremely positive for gold.
Anyone read the Prophecy by Robert Kyosaki. Great book I read it a long time ago. He predicted 2016 was going to be the year we see a massive crash. To me it sure looks like things are pointing in this direction. Do you know him? I think he would be a great guy to have on your show.
Hi RONNY…Just read your post, seen the same info elsewhere…….
Bail-ins come to mind………..So folks be very careful about the amount of cash you leave in your (to big to fail ) local friendly & caring bank.
Remember folks the FED has your Back….Or to be more precise their hand in your Back pocket.
Yah the banks are the house of cards and there are starting to fall. When they do people will start to pour into gold. Duestche Bank hit a record low today. In 2014 it was over 50 and today 15. It has already crashed big time. I think thats why gold is up. The heart of Europe Germany is having problems. They are the powerhouse of Europe. Greek markets are at a 25 year low. Things are getting bad in Europe. Everywhere is weak. Even if 5% more percent more people bought gold it will (is) have a huge effect on precious metals market. Its going to be an exciting year I did really well in 2010-11 in the gold market. Hoping 2016-17 will be similar.
Thanks but no thanks. The key to remember is that TA is based on what price has already done. The fundamentals make the chart, not the other way around.
If something is still dirt cheap after rising substantially due to a game-changer, then it will still be scooped up by those who get it, overbought or not.
Example:
TA is certainly based on what price has already done. Some folks do not realize that.
Doc said on saturday based on technicals gold will go down to 1040. Then today he says based on technicals gold is going down to 1120. How is that already done?
Ronny….Technically no one really knows.
Multiple basic daily and weekly indicators unambiguously told me to be long. So did the daily action in my juniors.
On 1/23 when gold was 1098:
On January 23, 2016 at 10:12 am,
Matthew says:
After closing 8 weeks below it, gold has now closed above the 600 week EMA for the third consecutive week. Smarter shorts and wannabe longs must be noticing gold’s resilience — and getting slightly nervous.
GDX jumped about 20% vs gold after this:
On January 29, 2016 at 2:09 pm,
Matthew says:
GDX priced in the most stable money, gold, put in what is likely a double bottom. The low on the 21st was the same as the 9/11 low: .0113
Then, when gold was $1,118:
On January 30, 2016 at 6:03 pm,
Matthew says:
Gold is looking good here…
No Ronny, you’re misquoting me—-listen very carefully. I said gold was due to rally in January-February and in fact have said repeatedly late in February. I’ve said that then we’ll start to move back down after that to the next lows by sometime around May. I then said the highest the next low could be would be around 1120 with other prices lower possible—please note that that means it could be any price lower for the next low before a rebound. I’ve said nothing and I’ll repeat nothing about gold going back down to 1040—what I’ve said is that the December bottom around 1040 could (note that word could) be the bottom. No one knows for sure. Also, I might add I said when gold was making its’ move as predicted in January that it would in all likelihood move grudgingly higher—that’s the only thing I’ve missed—it’s not been “grudgingly” as we’ve recently seen. That’s the only miscalculation—the speed of the move. I also said that gold was not going to get away from us on the upside. I would say it hasn’t yet if it holds here. I stand by my call about a correction into the spring. You may then tell me I was correct when that happens.
By the way, Ronny, I’ll go back to Saturday’s interview and see if I said what you said. If I did it was a slip and I could have meant around 1140 since that goes with my 1120 of today.
When Doc was “still not in the bullish camp” on Feb. 1, I said:
“All things considered, I think it’s reasonable to be more bullish than Mr. Flanagan seems to be.”
Those who watched his videos know that he was calling for a nasty correction once the HUI reached 128. Today, it hit 157 and it never corrected at all before getting there. Rather than the 30% gain that he had anticipated, we got a 58%+ gain.
Ronny, I checked the interview on Saturday with AVI and LPG included. I believe that’s the interview you were referencing. I’ll check the weekend show interview also. What (and read carefully) I said on that interview is that we should have a correction into the spring for the next low as I’ve said consistently and then I said “whether that’s a low down around 1040 again or a higher low time will tell”. Note carefully that I didn’t say that the low would be around that 1040 area—it could be or it could be higher. Now today I mentioned that the potential highest low would be around around 1120 but it could be lower—that leaves space between 1040-1120. This isn’t the first time you’ve misquoted me–I would appreciate that you listen a little more carefully in the future and measure your comments accordingly.
he said no such thing, in fact he said the opposite, that there was a possibility we have seen the lows but the next few weeks, into May I believe, would tell the tale depending on the character of the next pullback. Ronny all you’re doing is throwing mud.
Doc…do you believe the Market will hold when it gets to 6000 which would be a retest of the 2008 lows or are we going lower??
Ron, I don’t know if we get down to 6000 or not. I can see out at most about 4 months but not much further then that. If you believe in the megaphone pattern for the conventionals and the fact the fact can no longer do anything to stop the ponzi unwinding, then yes, it’s certainly possible.
the second “fact”= FED.
I was just trying to protect some gains in smaller companies I have purchased since the beginning of the year that don’t have good optionality. I guess I’m just better off taking some profits off the table at the appropriate time.
Al,
I’ve never had one bad thing to say about you, Cory, Doc, Rick or Chris. All of you are standup guys in my book.
I’ve enjoyed the time spent here over the years. I simply got tired of dealing with a few trolls who seem to have an agenda. Now Avi seems intent on joining that pack. Maybe he is at the root of the troll problem who knows. I never had anything to say about him one way or the other until he started attacking me, my calls, and my belief that the metals market has been manipulated. Heck there isn’t even any question anymore that the metals have been heavily manipulated over the last 3 years. I don’t know how anyone could possible claim otherwise and keep a straight face.
But that’s beside the point.
I don’t know why you would hold it against me that I simply don’t feel like dealing with these people and their crap anymore. It seems like all loyalty just went right out the window. Did our friendship mean so little?
Al and Gary-
As someone who values your and Gary’s site, IMVHO you guys need to get on the horn and get this healed up….please 🙂
Amen!
Looking in again…..I would be just fine if Mr. Gilburt were dropped.
I am Doc’s fan please leave him alone. His comments are helping me everyday.
Doc. please be on the show and keep up the good work. thank you always.
One more thing, my profits are up shorting etf. thank you.
Billy and Harry, I appreciate your comments and I’m not going anywhere unless someone calls me home. I do this because I love technical analysis I’ve tried to help people my whole life and this is just another way of accomplishing it. The only appreciation needed is to know I’ve been able to help people avoid making moves in markets that would hurt them financially. It’s a blessing to know that.
Thank you Doc 🙂
I really think this thing with Al and Gary has gotten way out of hand, at first I thought it was a joke but honestly now it should be forgotten because you are both great at what you do and much appreciated by all. DT
Doc you’re on fire right now. Thank you. Simplistic soul that I am I’ve probably been over-swayed in the past by fundamentals, and need to learn more about the technicals. Although not a gold bug per se (I see PMs as being something to pass onto one’s children/grandchildren), the fundamental truth of the whole world being in debt is as Jay and Al point out must inevitably ignite gold in due course.
Re the spat between Gary and Al maybe I can offer this. In any argument both sides invariably need to lighten up. It’s well understood that a sense of humour is a sense of proportion, and whilst Al can sometimes (infuriatingly) not ‘get it’, as I must admit t has felt to me on occasions, we need to chill and not take matters too personally. That said I know I’ve been misunderstood in the past, while recognising that real enduring loyalty is everything.
Best to both of you and thanks for all that you give, A
It must be Pistols & Paces Gentlemen….lets get it over with once & for all,
Oh hang on, we can’t do that in today’s society can we?
So give each other a hug & agree to disagree instead,
Friendship & the extended family bonds it often brings through it are far more important than thinking you are wrong or right over some cr@p like gold calls/my site/your site etc..
I personally disagree with probably half of what Gary posts here Big Al ?
But so what? I disagree with friends of mine probably the same % over different things at times.
Like Gary said does his friendship mean so lttle?
Regardless of whether he is ever back on the show or not (I’m not fussed either way)
Life is short Al,
Don’t regret a hasty decision too late,
…..I personally have…..& it’s haunted me everyday since.
Cheers.
Good one Skeeta!!
Trust me there is no spat Reverend.
Trouble is Al it can only take one for two to tangle!
So true. Whom am I supposed to be tangling with? If anyone at all.
Rev,
If you want to protect gains, you can do so by placing a trailing stop order.
This will protect against slow drops, but may not be so effective if a stock gaps down.
A trailing stop order is usually placed beloe the current price of a stock held long, expressed as a percentage. i.e. if you place a 10% trailing stop on the stock, as the price goes up the stop order automatically adjusts upwards, but when the stock drop 10% down a sell order is triggered.
Back in the days before discount stockbrokers, there used to be a Chandelier stop order, which is a trailing stop expressed in dollars (or pounds and shillings). I don’t know if such a possibility still exists in the UK
Thanks CFS. My broker’s a bit basic which probably makes us two of a kind! All I’m trying to do right now is sniff out some really solid juniors with good management, sound finances and in which other notable investors have shown their got involved. Added to that fundamentals must have their day in the long run. Very best to you, A
Below not beloe
I think it would be a good idea to have Gary Savage and Bob Moriarty on again as regular guest. As it is now everyone has the same view. I enjoy Listening to Doc and he may very well be right and we head down lower. Good to have some fundamentalist on as well talking about charts on a podcast is ok but when it’s every guest “with the emotion takin out of it” it’s a bit stagnant.
There must of been a falling out with BoB as well.
Some of the best interviews on the KE report are the ones talking with Mining investors, I am willing to guess atleast half the listeners are invested in PM Miners, there is a real lack of podcast that talk about miners. Most will only bring on guest that are paying them.
Once this market turns I imagine some one will be filling that void.
No falling out with either of them Gregory.
Good to hear Al.
Keep up the good work
Doc, what PM stocks or companies are you buying at this point? I have EQTRF, ALXDF, CORVF, RPMGF, GQMNF, and SZSMF. Are any of these ones you don’t like and are there some you would prefer? Of Course, not investment advice.