A very belated Tuesday Wrap, but well worth the listen!
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I know that this one is late, but, trust us, it is definitely worth the listen.
I never said any such thing — I try to differentiate between what will happen w/o any Black Swan event (in that case, the slow dull ache or re-pricing) while at the same time pointing out that the major risks of some other scenario are to the downside.
Chill out, Chris. It was a respectful question, not snarky.
Didn’t take it as snarky, Jay — just clarifying. As a reminder, too, I have many times in recent months used my “minnow trap” analogy as to what COULD happen to the markets at some point when bids really dry up for certain things; that really magnifies the downside risk. That the selling thus far in 2016 (and it really started in the broad market last year) has been generally fairly orderly is almost eerie in that respect, in fact. The only real evidence we saw of “no bid” near-crashes was last August on that day the Dow dropped 1,000 at the open; but that was quickly overcome.
So no — the risk of a crash due to the markets’ very nature is still ever-present.
If you were looking at volume, you could visibly see the ESF buying NYSE Composite Index earlier.
Big Al – can you post all the comments back onto this that were on the blog with the bad audio that got yanked?
There were about 80 comments on that and active discussions still going on when it was removed.
Please Disregard. I saw your response on the other blog and wish you and Kathy all the best.
Big Al – thanks for all you do to bring together great people
Al, I don’t think the gold/oil ratio is at an all time high. Back in 1932 I think gold was 20.67 per oz and oil was 10 cents a barrel, so the ratio was over 200 to one. So if oil drops to $10 and gold goes to $2000 it would be like 1932.
Now that is true and I stand corrected.
When gold is 200 times the price of oil in the coming depresion I may sell some NEM and buy XOM.
i meant “depression”
Good point by Chris about Wall Streeters beginning to recognize that things need to reprice, but he seemed to suggest that that mitigates the risk of crashes, failures, etc.
I don’t follow that line of thinking, or am I mis-interpreting? Seems like that could just accelerate the reset of things and chaos, etc?