Thursday Morning Discussion with Chris and Doc
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People have been seeing the Dark Universe from the beginning.
After that news. one might notice that the world financial system is about to be swallowed up by a financial black hole!
haha.
Maybe finally we can see the past and trade from hind sight.
Dragonite…I don’t want to see the “DARK” universe..The sight of even “BIGGER” gangster bankers heading this way would compel me to go out & buy incontinence pants.
IrishT – See the comments below on Precious Metals Depends. You can be the first customer!
Big Al – It would be great to get all the comments back from the blog that was removed with the audio challenges. There were some great discussions going on that suddenly vanished.
Expect the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) to paint the tape at the close.
Then watch what happens when Hong Kong opens.
correct…………
Gold has blown through the daily channel resistance so there is a gap on our reversals between 1209 and 1309. Gold should now press higher to fill that gap. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/gold-the-february-crisis-the-prelude-to-chaos/
Farhad…I seem to recall armstrong saying about a week ago or so that gold would head lower and make new lows. Now he’s flip flopping?
Gotta disagree with Doc on Deutsche Bank.
If a bank like that was nationalized gold would rocket because it would expose without doubt to all the instability of the system and just lead to more bank problems.
Also, I’m not sure there IS enough money to nationalize DB with its derivative exposure, etc. and if that could not be done gold and silver would take off
+1 it would have to be broken up and “wound down.” I don’t think many Germans would be willing to pay for that as they have been on the hook for too many financialized bailouts recently.
I totally agree with Doc. The European model for cleaning up in th bank-sector is to natioanilse. After a couple of years the healthy parts of DB will go back to private hands again.
Doc, You say that next week will be a downer for stock market. Yet you said before that it will go down rather slowly – ‘sideway to down’. Are you still holding to that view? That acceleration to the downside, as in a crash, will not happen?
Jay, tough to tell right now and all bets are off—–15000 dow in the next week is a possibility. It seems the conventionals are inversely proportional to the movement of the PMs. Both are parabolic but I guess in different directions. When we get into these kind of markets, it’s very tough to tell where they plan to land—-all I know is the odds are we have anywhere from 5-10 trades pressure on both of these markets before some respite. If the PMs start to have trouble moving higher when the conventionals have no trouble moving lower, then the odds are the PMs are finally peaking. Sorry I can’t help you more on your question.
Thank you Doc. Thank you for all your help.
The settlement on the COMEX will be in US currency.
Settlement in currency IS within COMEX rules.
+1
Toilet paper for gold…now that’s a really bad deal.
Unless you are suffering from constant diaria! (Is that spelled right?)
This is exactly why Frank from moscow….The BOOT….OOTB….The Claw and I invented precious metals depends:
__________________________________________________________________________
On December 3, 2015 at 10:34 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
TOILETS will be going gang busters………635million without toilets……
On December 3, 2015 at 11:09 am,
Excelsior says:
My goodness, how can we flush in on this trade….. I want to own the company shares that manufactures toilets.
On December 3, 2015 at 11:17 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
start a ceramics shop……..some china powder and some clay and we are in business, and hook a wind mill on for the biomess …………….
On December 3, 2015 at 11:23 am,
Excelsior says:
gross….. 🙂
On December 3, 2015 at 11:58 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
gross profits…………… 🙂
On December 3, 2015 at 12:26 pm,
Excelsior says:
We should create a slush fund and dump it into our other venture for Precious Metals Depends.
“Whether Gold is explosive, or taking a dump……. You won’t want to look at precious metal charts without wearing Precious Metals Depends”
—- (my preferred spokesperson = Turd Ferguson)
On December 3, 2015 at 1:27 pm,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
ditto…….or doodoo
On December 3, 2015 at 2:06 pm,
irishtony says:
Jerry …Go long toilets …You will be flush with successes.
On December 3, 2015 at 2:21 pm,
Excelsior says:
….and come up a with a hot and steamy company name for your IPO like……..
“Mud Dragon Resources”
On December 3, 2015 at 2:22 pm,
Excelsior says:
….Out Of The Box – Into the Bowl……
On December 4, 2015 at 12:19 pm,
Excelsior says:
I have a nice position in place now, and feel the high risk may be worth the candle and speed-bumps along the way. We’ll see how it goes……. I may be the first customer of the Precious Metals Depends. 🙂
On December 5, 2015 at 4:54 am,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
Depend on it……………OOTB
Ex…………you are funny…..
That was a funny little run…. for people with the runs……
Doc and Chris, you guys are really great. Great comments in this volatile time. One more question – Doc, are you shorting GDX around here?
Jay, not just yet. I’m sticking with the view that gold still has a little more mojo here. I’ll look seriously next week with the price action. The miners should be the first to tell you they’re starting to run out of gas. I’ll be looking for clues next week which should be pivotal.
DOC. I agree on the “MOJO”
BIG MOVE………..in gold ….as already stated…….
Chris is right about one thing.
Protect your profits.
Options are a good way to do this.
But that’s just my thoughts, not investment advice.
I had already suggested a warning re: Insurance companies and Banks, before this segment was put up.
Problem is NOT the same for everyone…….if, you are in the STOCK MARKET AND BONDS….YOU have a problem………
for your investment is in the WRONG CYCLE…….
Chris is SO Correct about the long run.
24 hours ago:
On February 10, 2016 at 9:28 am,
Matthew says:
This chart deserves the benefit of the doubt. GLD couldn’t even reach the 5 day moving average on the dip this morning.
And:
On February 10, 2016 at 7:03 am,
Matthew says:
Most bullish, in my opinion, would be for gold to extend this move up significantly enough that even a large pullback afterward would not take it back to where the abandoned bulls are hoping.
It’s a real show of strength that Monday’s gap up in GLD remains open.
Matthew – Great points and very encouraging action. My comments to you on the blog that was yanked had a section where I was thanking you for your posts.
As we discussed on that post, that was very bullish action in GLD. (and you had pointed out some big gaps that took years to fill in GDX as a good reminder).
Discussions like these from wise traders like yourself, and the reminders from both Gary and Avi helped me trim and get right back on after the pullback instead of missing the ride. I’ve very grateful for the helpful info on the KER report every day.
The time spend digging through the comments and listening to the audio paid large dividends the last few weeks (and especially the last few days). Stock picks, technical data, editorials and well reasoned opinions found here are really a blessing.
Overall it’s been a fantastic day in the PM miners!
I’m glad you also had a great day/week. I don’t think there’s many of us.
I was loading up in late December and all through January to the largest mining exposure I’ve had in years (50% in), just in case we could make it to $1142 or $1146 and get a little rally going in Jan & Feb.
This move up past resistance all further resistance levels @ $1160, $1184, $1208-$1210, $1232, and $1248 has shot way beyond any expectations I had.
I was hoping for a move like this from a little bit lower level in Spring/Summer, so I’ll admit to being surprised by this upside, but I’ve had about 10-12 stocks in place at almost every time (to varying degrees of allocation) through the last 2 months. I’ve made more in the last week or two, in miners, than in the last few months.
I’m not sure how much juice is left, but I moved a little back over to dry powder mid day because I saw us get over $1260 and remembered you mentioning that for a level you believed we could hit before retracing. I realize we may make a run at $1308, but I’ve successfully trimmed and then re-entered at a better price a few times in a row, and if things run away even further I still have like a 30% position in place.
I’ve had a fantastic 2 weeks. Another 20 weeks like that and I’ll be back to where I was 4 ears ago!
20?! 😮
You’ll get back there Bonzo…..in less than 4 ears this time…. 😉
GREAT REMINDER……………
Gold has taken back the 600 day EMA for the first time since before it crashed in 2013. There’s two hours left and GLD has already had its largest volume since the crash.
It shaped up to be an amazing green day for sure, and took out the 600 day EMA as a bonus.
When gold finally takes a break, I expect silver and the juniors to hold up remarkably well.
SLV:GLD weekly:
If the bullion banks run out of gold, and the COMEX has no gold for delivery, and no gold is available for leasing because lease rates make leasing gold too costly, then obviously bullion banks, the COMEX and central banks will have to scramble for physical.
They can’t hope to play this one with cash.
This move may have made a lot people full of tears.
Ask, chris what he thinks…….. 🙂
Fran6, Read the COMEX Rules, for crying out loud.
The futures market will seize if there’s no gold available for delivery, and nobody will write any more futures contracts for bullion. THAT is way more serious than just paying out people in cash, because essentially your money market will have ground to a halt.
FranSix: You don’t understand how commodities work. If it was possible in any market to corner the market the guys with the most money would corner every market. You cannot corner a market, the rules have always provided for cash settlement. CFS offers a good suggestion, when you don’t understand how something works, read the book.
Now, Fran6, in this last comment I agree with you.
Money markets have to die with NIRP anyway.
I’ll say it again, I think TLT has topped versus gold for a long time (a lot more than a year).
Matthew, the odds are very good. Also, when I mentioned earlier in the year that I felt 2016 would be a transitional year where the PMs would comparatively outperform paper assets, just look at the dow/gold ratio which is finally beginning its’ breakdown.
Absolutely. Gold will outperform all the paper assets for the long haul.
It seems that the majority of the people that visit this website feel that way, but what is mind-boggling is that most of the investing public has not embraced this yet.
This destruction in value of paper, in contrast with tangible goods that don’t have counter party risk, is precisely why there is so much opportunity go grow and preserve wealth in the PM sector for next 5 years +.
(and that may be a really big + )
Yes, gold and stocks are trading places…
I also like to look at gold:Dow not just Dow:gold. When this chart updates after the close, it will be even better looking…
(Look at those moving averages. In the very big picture, the gold bull of the last decade was just the very beginning.)
I must be the only left left expecting hold go hit $980-$1020!
Why is this move in gold nothing more than a strong bear market rally?
Have we moved 20% from the December low on an intraday or closing basis?
No not yet. And I don’t think it will.
I am currently preparing a shorting list. The liquid big cap miners will get devasted.The juniors less so.
I’ll be shorting gold in the near future.
Al we need an edit function. Sorry for spelling mistakes. Dam iPhone lol.
I am beginning to see some upwards movement in some Bio-Pharma shares today probably due to upcoming conference.
The 19th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference
February 13-14, 2017
The Waldorf Astoria New York
CFS – Do you ever trade with the ETFS (IBB) (XBI) (BIB) or (LABU)?
BIB is 2x and LABU is 3x leveraged, so I don’t know if you like that kind of thing, but mainly wondered what you thought of IBB or XBI?
I have in the past, used IBB, while learning about individual companies, but not in the last year.
I am a fundamental analyst, not a trader by nature, and rarely use leveraged ETFs. (Although should admit to using AGQ and UGL recently, which I hold at the moment.
(Even without trailing stops, which I do use most of the time)
Thanks CFS. I like short duration trades (several hours to several weeks), so I often trade the leveraged funds for holding for a day or two. I like looking for turns for the short term, or takeovers and value plays for the longer term. For Biotech I don’t know the ins and outs, so I just look for oversold conditions or over bought conditions. I just saw that XBI for the first time when you posted those Finbiz ETF heat maps the other day. Thanks!
Close out of day positions and painting started.
Doc,
During prior spike in oil, you mentioned oil would consolidate and settle around high 20’s. What do you see it going? The reason I ask is because many good oil stocks are not going down much. They are small caps and trade pretty much with the conventional stock market. Do you think they will YO YO around?
Cali, good odds are they’ll YO YO around as you put it. The good companies are getting close to their bottoms.
That move down in oil today to $26.07 was almost taking it back down to the mid $20’s.
If it goes any lower into the low $20’s, I may nibble at a few oil stocks.
Don’t expect any major move by gold or the conventionals into the close. The odds are tomorrow morning that gold holds steady or moves down and the conventionals hold steady or move up. Note I mentioned in the morning—-then we see what the afternnoon brings. I’m actually looking at shorter term charts and using similar techniques that I use with the longer term charts. LPG has gotten me on to it and I even day traded today—it was a BLAST!!!!!!
Doc – Great thoughts as per usual.
Uh-Oh, you may have caught the trading bug. Watch out world we got a doc on the loose
🙂
EX; thanks I’m looking forward to it—talked to my broker today and we’ll pick a time next week to get used to the platform and do a few trades before “he lets me loose”—I’ve been day trading the last few days and done well. Hope it continues. By the way, I’ll be selling most of my PM positions in the next few trading days.
The technicals do work on the micro as well as the macro, and sometimes it is easier for me to see something play out on a small time horizon without being blind-sided by a fundamental news blast or long weekend. As above so below….
Yes I trimmed some of my miners mid-day to take some chips off the table, but didn’t sell them all the way. There’s a few I may sell completely tomorrow. We’ll see how things look in the morning.
Martin Armstrong said it best this time last year or so, When there is loss of confidence in government & the central bank, gold’s luster will become evident. Yea, Baby!
Pretty obvious statement!
I don’t know if anyone has noticed but based on the daily RSI (14), gold is as overbought now as it was when it reached $1923. However, based on the weekly RSI (14), there is no comparison and gold has a lot of room to run much higher. If it does, I will likely sell some and buy more silver and miners.
The most important news today is that gravitational telescopes will allow us to look at the Dark Universe.