A focus on gold and looking forward to April
Today we focus on gold with Richard Postma AKA Doc. We look at the price action in gold today but with a more broad look at what could happen as we turn the corner into April. We also touch on how the US Dollar and US markets look moving into April.
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No alternative DT but to go in for the long haul.
Agreed.
Have you been promoted ?!
Only in my head!!
You may want to reconsider that plan Andrew unless something in your DNA thinks losing money on metals and miners is a good idea. Not that I really care what any of you do but gold is far from bullish in this current scenario so I would be cautious listening to the clarion calls of the Gold-tards that chronically pollute every metals blog on planet earth.
Long term does not mean indefinitely Farmer!
Options Guru Says VIX Looks Poised To Pop, Sees ‘Volatility Overshoot’
March 21, 2016 – Chris Dieterich
“The VIX, an options-based measure of market expectations for future price swings in the S&P 500, just had its sharpest 25-day decline on record, says MKM Partners’ derivatives strategist, Jim Strugger. The VIX fell from 28 on Feb. 11 to 14 last week. The decline means that demand for short-term options protection fell fast while U.S. stocks roared higher.
Is a plunging VIX an all-clear signal for stocks? Not quite. Just as analysts struggle to find meaning in the S&P 500′s swift, double-digit rebound since early last month, so too are VIX watchers wrestling with the meaning of the drop in the market’s “fear gauge.” As noted earlier, Katie Stockton at BTIG sees the slump in the VIX as a worrisome sign that the rebound rally could be nearing an end.
Strugger agrees. He says the recent VIX slide looks like a “volatility overshoot.” He explains:
“Given the pace of decline in volatility … it seems that an absolute trough may be in place or near. That suggests elevated risk for U.S. equities following a 12% rally from the early February low and means it is time to reduce net long exposure. We will circle back on recommendations for hedges and long volatility exposure over the next few days.”
I wholeheartedly agree with the thesis in the article above on the markets starting to get too heated up, and conversely the volatility dropping to new lows on the fear gauge. There is a bit too much optimism in the general markets, but without a reason for it. Obviously the Fed didn’t feel the markets were strong enough to take another rate hike (so what’s all the celebrating for?). Doc voiced exactlywhat I’ve been mulling over – Earnings Season will get underway next month (which could have a few stinkers wrapped up with a bow for the markets).
I snagged some more (TVIX) today in after-hours trading at $4.92 and had started building a TVIX position on Thursday, Friday of last week once it got down in the low 6’s, and then the mid and low 5’s, and was thrilled to pick more up today below $5.
I agree that the general stock markets could still run a little higher, and make a go at taking out the all time highs before correcting. They seem to seeing more exhaustion though after a very nice recovery, but there’s been sideways movement since Thursday afternoon.
The rest of this short trading week with Good Friday and Easter weekend, and many out vacationing for spring break will make it a boring week overall. However, heading into April, when fear and unexpected drops do come (and they will – just a matter of time), then I intend to take the volatility trampoline ride up 🙂
Here’s another article along the same lines…..
Did the VIX Fall Too Far, Too Fast?
March 21, 2016 – Chris Dieterich
Good call Shad. I am going back into TVIX with you. The risk / reward is quite favourable now and we have a set up for declines ahead in the markets. I am pacing this out though as more work needs to be done on the equities charts before we get another fall.
Probably a good strategy – pacing it out. Volatility has stalled where it is at present, and so have the general markets. It will likely continue to be a boring sideways market the balance of the week due to the holiday, spring break, and investors traveling and not paying attention.
There is an underlying natural pace to market movement in prices of precious metals. The early upward movement left them almost overbought.
Believing that all markets are manipulated to greater and lessor degrees, there is some signs that all the shiny silver metals, Ag, PT, Pd, which never had large stockpiles in this century, that the physical supplies are running out.
This limits manipulation.
Gold has physical supplies and will only move slowly. The others are NOT going to retrench significantly. (IMHO)
As regards the conventional market; there are dangers signals flashing.
Only rotated collusion by the central banks will keep them up.
It is obswervable that some money is moving into higher dividend stocks as an alternative to bonds.
e.g.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DOD
Just a quick refresher course lest we forget what has happened to many “friends” of the Clintons.
1- James McDougal – Clintons convicted Whitewater partner died of an apparent heart attack, while in solitary confinement. He was a key witness in Ken Starr’s investigation.
2 – Mary Mahoney – A Former White House intern was murdered July 1997 at a Starbucks Coffee Shop in Georgetown… The murder happened just after she was to go public with her story of sexual harassment in the White House.
3 – Vince Foster – Former White House counselor, and colleague of Hillary Clinton at Little Rock’s Rose Law firm. Died of a gunshot wound to the head, ruled a suicide.
4 – Ron Brown – Secretary of Commerce and former DNC Chairman. Reported to have died by impact in a plane crash. A pathologist close to the investigation reported that there was a hole in the top of Brown’s skull resembling a gunshot wound. At the time of his death Brown was being investigated, and spoke publicly of his willingness to cut a deal with prosecutors. The rest of the people on the plane also died. A few days later the air Traffic controller commited suicide
5 – C. Victor Raiser, II – Raiser, a major player in the Clinton fund raising organization died in a private plane crash in July 1992.
6 – Paul Tulley – Democratic National Committee Political Director found dead in a hotel room in Little Rock, September 1992. Described by Clinton as a “dear friend and trusted advisor
7 – Ed Willey – Clinton fundraiser, found dead November 1993 deep in the woods in VA of a gunshot wound to the head. Ruled a suicide. Ed Willey died on the same day his wife Kathleen Willey claimed Bill Clinton groped her in the oval office in the White House. Ed Willey was involved in several Clinton fund raising events.
8 – Jerry Parks – Head of Clinton’s gubernatorial security team in Little Rock… Gunned down in his car at a deserted intersection outside Little Rock Park’s son said his father was building a dossier on Clinton He allegedly threatened to reveal this information. After he died the files were mysteriously removed from his house.
9 – James Bunch – Died from a gunshot suicide. It was reported that he had a “Black Book” of people which contained names of influential people who visited prostitutes in Texas and Arkansas
0 – James Wilson – Was found dead in May 1993 from an apparent hanging suicide. He was reported to have ties to Whitewater…
11 – Kathy Ferguson – Ex-wife of Arkansas Trooper Danny Ferguson, was found dead in May 1994, in her living room with a gunshot to her head. It was ruled a suicide even though there were several packed suitcases, as if she were going somewhere. Danny Ferguson was a co-defendant along with Bill Clinton in the Paula Jones lawsuit Kathy Ferguson was a possible corroborating witness for Paula Jones.
12 – Bill Shelton – Arkansas State Trooper and fiancée of Kathy Ferguson. Critical of the suicide ruling of his fiancée, he was found dead in June, 1994 of a gunshot wound also ruled a suicide at the grave site of his fiancée.
13 – Gandy Baugh – Attorney for Clinton’s friend Dan Lassater, died by jumping out a window of a tall building January, 1994. His client was a convicted drug distributor.
14 – Florence Martin – Accountant & sub-contractor for the CIA, was related to the Barry Seal, Mena,Arkansas, airport drug smuggling case. He died of three gunshot wounds.
15 – Suzanne Coleman – Reportedly had an affair with Clinton when he was Arkansas Attorney General. Died of a gunshot wound to the back of the head, ruled a suicide. Was pregnant at the time of her death.
16 – Paula Grober – Clinton’s speech interpreter for the deaf from 1978 until her death December 9, 1992. She died in a one car accident.
17 – Danny Casolaro – Investigative reporter. Investigating Mena Airport and Arkansas Development Finance Authority. He slit his wrists, apparently, in the middle of his investigation.
18 – Paul Wilcher – Attorney investigating corruption at Mena Airport with Casolaro and the 1980 “October Surprise” was found dead on a toilet June 22, 1993, in his Washington DC apartment. Had delivered a report to Janet Reno 3 weeks before his death.
19 – Jon Parnell Walker – Whitewater investigator for Resolution Trust Corp. Jumped to his death from his Arlington, Virginia apartment balcony August 15, 1993. He was investigating the Morgan Guaranty scandal.
20 – Barbara Wise – Commerce Department staffer. Worked closely with Ron Brown and John Huang. Cause of death unknown. Died November 29, 1996. Her bruised, nude body was found locked in her office at the Department of Commerce.
21 – Charles Meissner – Assistant Secretary of Commerce who gave John Huang special security clearance, died shortly thereafter in a small plane crash.
22 – Dr. Stanley Heard – Chairman of the National Chiropractic Health Care Advisory Committee died with his attorney Steve Dickson in a small plane crash. Dr. Heard, in addition to serving on Clinton ‘s advisory council personally treated Clinton’s mother, stepfather and brother.
23 – Barry Seal – Drug running TWA pilot out of Mena Arkansas, death was no accident.
24 – Johnny Lawhorn, Jr. – Mechanic, found a check made out to Bill Clinton in the trunk of a car left at his repair shop. He was found dead after his car had hit a utility pole.
25 – Stanley Huggins – Investigated Madison Guaranty. His death was a purported suicide and his report was never released.
26 – Hershell Friday – Attorney and Clinton fundraiser died March 1, 1994, when his plane exploded.
27 – Kevin Ives & Don Henry– Known as “The boys on the track” case. Reports say the boys may have stumbled upon the Mena, Arkansas airport drug operation. A controversial case, the initial report of death said, due to falling asleep on railroad tracks. Later reports claim the 2 boys had been slain before being placed on the tracks. Many linked to the case died before their testimony could come before a Grand Jury.
THE FOLLOWING PERSONS HAD INFORMATION ON THE IVES/HENRY CASE:
28 – Keith Coney – Died when his motorcycle slammed into the back of a truck, 7/88.
29 – Keith McMaskle – Died, stabbed 113 times, Nov, 1988
30 – Gregory Collins – Died from a gunshot wound January 1989.
31 – Jeff Rhodes – He was shot, mutilated and found burned in a trash dump in April 1989.
32 – James Milan – Found decapitated. However, the Coroner ruled his death was due to natural causes”.
33 – Jordan Kettleson – Was found shot to death in the front seat of his pickup truck in June 1990.
34 – Richard Winters – A suspect in the Ives/Henry deaths. He was killed in a set-up robbery July 1989.
THE FOLLOWING CLINTON BODYGUARDS ARE DEAD:
36 –Major William S. Barkley, Jr.
37 – Captain Scott J. Reynolds
38 – Sgt. Brian Hanley
39 – Sgt. Tim Sabel
40 – Major General William Robertson
41 – Col. William Densberger
42 – Col. Robert Kelly
43 – Spec. Gary Rhodes
44 – Steve Willis
45 – Robert Williams
46 – Conway LeBleu
47 – Todd McKeehan
Quite an impressive list! Pass this on. Let the public become aware of what happens to friends of the Clintons!
“Society’s needs come before the individuals needs” Adolf Hitler
“We must stop thinking of the individual and start thinking about what is best for society” Hillary Clinton
HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? …SURELY YOU JEST
Our option? anti liberty? lol
Ron Paul Exposes Conservatives’ Budget Plans As Big Spending & Anti-Liberty. Zero hedge today.
ya sure, we got a choice.
SHE AND HE……….ARE LOOKING FOR 48…………..
Susan McDougle?
Donald Trump !!!!!!!!!!!!!
MAFIA TRUMP
sgtreport…………….check it out
Irish tony! Shirley u jest!!!! And don’t ca me Shirley! Hahaha! Grrreat hearing from I Irish one of all time contributors here..:)
Here is a list of 90 dead:90 SUSPICIOUS DEATHS OF INDIVIDUALS CLOSE TO BILL CLINTON, 81 WHILE PRESIDENT
http://www.freewebs.com/jeffhead/liberty/liberty/bdycount.txt
I am sure it is explainable.
Thanks b. That was educational.
I have often stated that I believe volume makes important statements:
https://srsroccoreport.com/dow-jones-vs-silver-trading-volume-says-it-all/
CFS..great chart…solidifies what we all believe..just have to wait it out and be prepared when it happens…thanks…
And the gender-confused Anderson Coopers and Lindsay Grahams cannot understand why Trump has such a large following.
funny……..good one.
Just the fact that so many gold-bugs and the Zero-Hedge crowd are such strong supporters of Donald Trump is enough information to know he cannot win in the end. Those folks are the ideal contrary indicator of all things politics. They backed Ron Paul and his whack-job ideas too. We know how that turned out.
Elizabeth Warren…….what a piece of work…..lost all credibility today bad mouthing TRUMP.
BUT, maybe she has a good reason………….MAFIA TRUMP….sgtreport
Not sure his mafia connections can really be held against him, his pathological lying sure, but mafia connections?
Lets be honust, it was the American government in the 40s that put the mafia in place.
Mussolini was the guy that “shut em down”.
So, the american government has had a working relationship with the mob for decades, nothing new.
Didnt they help kill Kenedy too?
JFK wanted to continue with silver certificate notes, we couldnt have that.
Ya woulda thunk Gaddafi mighta noticed that example.
swing over and take a listen to sgtreport ….mafia don………..
PROBLEM with Trump……..more war and military build up………ISIS is American made.
On March 20, 2016 at 8:02 pm,
CFS says:
Utah: You think Trump can win?
Smartmatic Group, an electronic voting firm whose worldwide headquarters is located in the United Kingdom, will be running the online balloting process in the Utah Republican Open Caucuses on Tuesday.
The chairman of Smartmatic’s board, Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, currently serves on the board of George Soros’s Open Society Foundation and has close ties to the billionaire.
Reply to this comment
On March 21, 2016 at 3:54 am,
irishtony says:
On March 21, 2016 at 3:51 am,
irishtony says:
So the American vote is been run out of the UK….Interesting.
Soros..The DEVIL himself has a hoof in all of this….Interesting.
So just give the below video a little looksy.
Read my comment above. Cheers for beers at ur favorite pub!!!
Hello marc…..Now don’t start getting rowdy , otherwise the Big Fella might have something to say. & besides Jerry gets a bit bitchy when we get too buddied… LOL
Listen to what Irish is saying his people were at the mercy of very cruel landlords, The English until they’d had enough and came to America. America provided them with a home to fight back against British atrocities. DT
Did you know Kasich, who has no possible way of being voted by the public as Republican Presidential candidate, has just accepted a gift of $700,000 from Soros to continue his (Kasich’s) campaign.
This is Soros’ ILLEGAL (BECAUSE HE IS A FOREIGN SOURCE) interfering in U.S. politics.
Soros is scum. Rich scum, but still SCUM.
CFS easy bro….Soros hold a U.S passport. I’m sure there is a lot of “rich scum” supporting Trumpy’s fascist campaign too.
I retract the word ILLEGAL above, because I’m sure Soros has enough attorney’s to make sure it was legally funneled.
It was immoral.
Soros is also financially backing “Black lives matter”.
It would appear that George Soros wants unrest and violence in the streets.
Possible motive? Perhaps he wants to make more millions by taking the dollar down like he did the UK Pound.
CFS Have you ever lived in a black neighbourhood in the U.S.A??? I have and I have to say it is the second-world wrapped in a nasty totalitarian police state. There are some very serious issues to be tackled there and Black Lives do Matter! Having said that, so do the lives of hundreds of millions U.S citizens robbed by a corrupt and crumbling empire. Soros is indeed part of this profiteering “scum-class” as you so rightly describe. It’s complicated and NOT black and white.
I used to be able to play the gold market strictly by using old fashioned fundamentals but since Doc has appeared on The Korelin Report my fundamental reasoning has been almost useless. I can’t blame that on Doc because his technical’s are very good so I will blame it on a demoralized and artificial market. DT