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What does a slow down in vacation homes tell us

April 6, 2016

We kick off today by discussing what a slow down in vacation homes means on a broad sense for the economy and consumer. The fact remains that the world is in a slow growth (at best) environment and does not look to be changing.

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Discussion
39 Comments
    Apr 06, 2016 06:43 AM

    Funny…………the RV MARKET IS BIGGER THAN EVER…………

      Apr 06, 2016 06:55 AM

      Good point – part of downsizing/lifestyle choices as well as the “graying” of the baby Boomers.

        Apr 06, 2016 06:30 PM

        Mr T – great point about how the savings to the public with lower gas prices has NOT increased consumer discretionary spending nor been a boon to the market.

        For most Americans the cost of their rising healthcare has gone up 20-40%, so this has wiped out any saving from the gas pump. If anything, most people I know are still looking for ways to streamline budgeting, and for ways to sell unnecessary vehicles, cottages, or cleaning out their garages, attics, and storage units.

        Once again the talking dead-head main stream media puppets get it wrong.

        If anything, the low gas prices have put tons of the better paid jobholders back on the street, and the money they spend on traveling, buying, eating out, etc… is now in survival mode. The low gas prices have not even translated to lower food costs or airline costs. When gas was going up they raised airline tickets and food costs due to fuel input costs rising, but when gas pulled back those goods and services still ratcheted higher.

          Apr 06, 2016 06:45 PM

          Yes sir, Excelsior — just like when well-paid construction workers, contractors, etc. ended up going from their well-paid jobs to delivering pizza so, too, have the masses of oil patch workers been “downsized” now economically.

            Apr 06, 2016 06:55 PM

            Yes. What happened to construction workers from 2007-2009 has now hit the oil patch, and those jobs lost means that sector is going to lose skilled knowledge and experienced workers as they seek employment in other industries. The cheese has been moved once again.

    Apr 06, 2016 06:47 AM

    Owl…….has both wings spread………….aggressive and cautious……… 🙂

    Apr 06, 2016 06:49 AM

    Some Florida real estate is cheap for a reason………

      Apr 06, 2016 06:57 AM

      True – but it depends on what you want. There are a couple areas where there are big multi-year plans to build them up, yet much of the residential housing pool remains depressed.

        Apr 06, 2016 06:43 AM

        Just found an article at zerohedge……………THE NUMBER OF BILLIONAIRS in each state……..Florida ranks 4th.

          Apr 06, 2016 06:44 AM

          OWL should be happy……….Washington State is 5 th.

            Apr 06, 2016 06:34 PM

            That would be the Tech sector in Washington. I plan on moving there myself in the not so distant future.

          Apr 06, 2016 06:49 PM

          Check out Key West. It is a haven for the Elite blue-blood types.

        Apr 06, 2016 06:46 AM

        The majority of people going to Florida……….want to live on or close to the BEACH.

          Apr 06, 2016 06:50 PM

          I thought it was for the toll roads and gators…. Hmmm? 🙂

            Apr 06, 2016 06:22 PM

            The toll roads down here make up for the lack of a state income tax — as bad a cost as the Tollway in and around Chicago!

            Apr 06, 2016 06:46 PM

            I’ve spent a fair bit of time driving all over Florida (Pensacola, Ft Walton/Destin, Seaside/Watercolor, Tampa/St Pete, Orlando/Kissimmee, Miami/South Beach, Hollywood Beach, Ft Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Boca Raton/Del Ray, West Palm Beach, Melbourne, Jacksonville). I’ll actually be in Boca again in 2 weeks.

            What I remember is long stretches of toll roads with marshes and swampy areas in the internal part of the state for a long as the eye can see, and a continual dumping of money into toll booths. I guess the great seafood makes up for it.

    Apr 06, 2016 06:55 AM

    Great discussion guys. In my area, home sales are ongoing, new homes being built, streets crowded, everyone going someplace. If I see anything that’s different, it’s an occasional store that has more employees roaming the aisles than customers. Gasoline is still under $2. Personally, looking forward to spring and planting my garden. Markets are cooperating with my holdings so for now so it continues to be a new year. I never was into the 2nd home idea since I know few places I want to return to more than a couple times.

    CFS
    Apr 06, 2016 06:42 AM

    A Democrat President once said:

    My friends:

    I want to speak not of politics but of government. I want to speak not of parties, but of universal principles. They are not political, except in that larger sense in which a great American once expressed a definition of politics, that nothing in all of human life is foreign to the science of politics…

    The issue of government has always been whether individual men and women will have to serve some system of government of economics, or whether a system of government and economics exists to serve individual men and women. This question has persistently dominated the discussion of government for many generations. On questions relating to these things men have differed, and for time immemorial it is probable that honest men will continue to differ. …… Democracy is a quest, a never-ending seeking for better things, and in the seeking for these things and the striving for better things, and in the seeking for these things and the striving for them, there are many roads to follow. But, if we map the course of these roads, we find that there are only two general directions.

    When we look about us, we are likely to forget how hard people have worked to win the privilege of government. The growth of the national governments of Europe was a struggle for the development of a centralized force in the nation, strong enough to impose peace upon ruling barons. In many instances the victory of the central government, the creation of a strong central government, was a haven of refuge to the individual. The people preferred the master far away to the exploitation and cruelty of the smaller master near at hand.

    But the creators of national government were perforce ruthless men. They were often cruel in their methods, but they did strive steadily toward something that society needed and very much wanted, a strong central state, able to keep the peace, to stamp out civil war, to put the unruly nobleman in his place, and to permit the bulk of individuals to live safely. The man of ruthless force had his place in developing a pioneer country, just as he did in fixing the power of the central government in the development of nations. Society paid him well for his services and its development. When the development among the nations of Europe, however, has been completed, ambition, and ruthlessness, having served its term tended to overstep its mark.

    There came a growing feeling that government was conducted for the benefit of a few who thrived unduly at the expense of all. The people sought a balancing- a limiting force. There came gradually, through town councils, trade guilds, national parliaments, by constitution and by popular participation and control, limitations on arbitrary power.

    Another factor that tended to limit the power of those who ruled, was the rise of the ethical conception that a ruler bore a responsibility for the welfare of his subjects.

    The American colonies were born in this struggle. The American Revolution was a turning point in it. After the revolution the struggle continued and shaped itself in the public life of the country. There were those who because they had seen the confusion which attended the years of war for American independence surrendered to the belief that popular government was essentially dangerous and essentially unworkable. They were honest people, my friends, and we cannot deny that their experience had warranted some measure of fear. The most brilliant, honest and able exponent of this point of view was Hamilton. He was too impatient of slow moving methods. Fundamentally he believed that the safety of the republic lay in the autocratic strength of its government, that the destiny of individuals was to serve that government, and that fundamentally a great and strong group of central institutions, guided by a small group of able and public spirited citizens could best direct all government.

    But Mr. Jefferson, in the summer of 1776, after drafting the Declaration of Independence turned his mind to the same problem and took a different view. He did not deceive himself with outward forms. Government to him was a means to an end, not an end in itself; it might be either a refuge and a help or a threat and a danger, depending on the circumstances. We find him carefully analyzing the society for which he was to organize a government. “We have no paupers. The great mass of our population is of laborers, our rich who cannot live without labor, either manual or professional, being few and of moderate wealth. Most of the laboring class possess property, cultivate their own lands, have families and from the demand for their labor, are enabled to exact from the rich and the competent such prices as enable them to feed abundantly, clothe above mere decency, to labor moderately and raise their families.”

    These people, he considered, had two sets of rights, those of “personal competency” and those involved in acquiring and possessing property. By “personal competency” he meant the right of free thinking, freedom of forming and expressing opinions, and freedom of personal living each man according to his own lights. To insure the first set of rights, a government must so order its functions as not to interfere with the individual. Even Jefferson realized that the exercise of the property rights might so interfere with the rights of the individual that the government, without whose assistance the property rights could not exist, must intervene, not to destroy individualism but to protect it. …….. For while it has been American doctrine that the government must not go into business in competition with private enterprises, still it has been traditional particularly in Republican administrations for business urgently to ask the government to put at private disposal all kinds of government assistance.

    The function of government must be to favor no small group at the expense of its duty to protect the rights of personal freedom and of private property of all its citizens.
    …….

    As I see it, the task of government in its relation to business is to assist the development of an economic declaration of rights, an economic constitutional order. This is the common task of statesman and business man. It is the minimum requirement of a more permanently safe order of things.

    Every man has a right to life; and this means that he has also a right to make a comfortable living. He may by sloth or crime decline to exercise that right; but it may not be denied him. We have no actual famine or death; our industrial and agricultural mechanism can produce enough and to spare. Our government formal and informal., political and economic, owes to every one an avenue to possess himself of a portion of that plenty sufficient for his needs, through his own work.

    Every man has a right to his own property; which means a right to be assured, to the fullest extent attainable, in the safety of his savings. By no other means can men carry the burdens of those parts of life which, in the nature of things afford no chance of labor; childhood, sickness, old age. In all thought of property, this right is paramount; all other property rights must yield to it. If, in accord with this principle, we must restrict the operations of the speculator, the manipulator, even the financier, I believe we must accept the restriction as needful, not to hamper individualism but to protect it.

    These two requirements must be satisfied, in the main, by the individuals who claim and hold control of the great industrial and financial combinations which dominate so large a pert of our industrial life. They have undertaken to be, not business men, but princes-princes of property. I am not prepared to say that the system which produces them is wrong. I am very clear that they must fearlessly and competently assume the responsibility which goes with the power. So many enlightened business men know this that the statement would be little more that a platitude, were it not for an added implication.

    This implication is, briefly, that the responsible heads of finance and industry instead of acting each for himself, must work together to achieve the common end. They must, where necessary, sacrifice this or that private advantage; and in reciprocal self-denial must seek a general advantage. It is here that formal government-political government, if you choose, comes in. Whenever in the pursuit of this objective the lone wolf, the unethical competitor, the reckless promoter, the Ishmael or Insull whose hand is against every man’s, declines to join in achieving and end recognized as being for the public welfare, and threatens to drag the industry back to a state of anarchy, the government may properly be asked to apply restraint. Likewise, should the group ever use its collective power contrary to public welfare, the government must be swift to enter and protect the public interest.

    The government should assume the function of economic regulation only as a last resort, to be tried only when private initiative, inspired by high responsibility, with such assistance and balance as government can give, has finally failed. As yet there has been no final failure, because there has been no attempt, and I decline to assume that this nation is unable to meet the situation.

    The final term of the high contract was for liberty and the pursuit of happiness. We have learnt a great deal of both in the past century. We know that individual liberty and individual happiness mean nothing unless both are ordered in the sense that one man’s meat is not another man’s poison. We know that the old “rights of personal competency”-the right to read, to think, to speak to choose and live a mode of life, must be respected at all hazards. We know that liberty to do anything which deprives others of those elemental rights is outside the protection of any compact; and that government in this regard is the maintenance of a balance, within which every individual may have a place if he will take it; in which every individual may find safety if he wishes it; in which every individual may attain such power as his ability permits, consistent with his assuming the accompanying responsibility….

    Faith in America, faith in our tradition of personal responsibility, faith in our institutions, faith in ourselves demands that we recognize the new terms of the old social contract. We shall fulfill them, as we fulfilled the obligation of the apparent Utopia which Jefferson imagined for us in 1776, and which Jefferson, Roosevelt and Wilson sought to bring to realization. We must do so, lest a rising tide of misery engendered by our common failure, engulf us all. But failure is not an American habit; and in the strength of great hope we must all shoulder our common load.
    ……..

    I listen to the candidates for President and can only believe that the quality of intellect has been severely degraded in the last few decades.

    Apr 06, 2016 06:00 AM

    Chris, Canadians buy a lot of Florida Real Estate, but since the loonies fall to about 75 cents US not only will many not be buying homes in Florida but many won’t be travelling there either. A lot of Canadians who own property in Florida rent these places out to other snowbirds, but a number of them are finding that much harder to do this year and some are selling their Florida Real Estate holdings. DT

    Apr 06, 2016 06:10 AM

    AL is diss you’re Bunker ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPfzAzua1gE

    Apr 06, 2016 06:19 AM

    Oil is looking very strong. It will take a few hours of trading to get through the 38 area. We could see $15 on USO by the end of the year.

      Apr 06, 2016 06:42 PM

      To me it looks like oil is simply working on it’s right shoulder on the H&S pattern. The left shoulder got up to $39, so I could see this pop in oil topping out between $38.77-$39.02 (the two intra-candle highs on 03/13/16 and 03/10/16 respectively).

      http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart

        Apr 06, 2016 06:44 PM

        I finally closed out of my UWTI position today that was trapped since last Friday, but I’m thinking about putting on a small short here with DWTI or doing it in the pre-markets if that zone is intersected.

          Apr 06, 2016 06:05 PM

          Oil closed after-hours at $37.97 capping off a long green daily candle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it break up through $38 up to that ($38.77-$39.02 zone) this evening and then reverse back down with an equally long red daily candle tomorrow. What a roller-coaster.

            Apr 06, 2016 06:33 PM

            It is looking like a bull market to me. Going long should give better gains as the dips will be quite small. If gold had climbed 60% into the 1800’s everyone would have celebrating a big new bull market but with oil it is hated so much so it is still considered to be in a bear market. By the end of the year we should be easily be above 50 and there is plenty of time to get there. I loaded up with USO and BP.

            Apr 06, 2016 06:10 PM

            Thanks for the response back and your outlook on the oil markets Paul L. I always appreciate your insights. I was looking for a pullback to the mid 34’s as you know, but it didn’t quite get there. In the near term, I’m still eyeing this potential H&S pattern where Gold would pull back from right under $39 down to the mid 34’s.

            I think the market was just looking for a reason to be bullish and the news about the inventory levels coming down in the US got everyone all giddy today. That won’t last as the macro supply picture is still a mess.

            Apr 06, 2016 06:11 PM

            I meant Oil not gold.

            Apr 06, 2016 06:16 PM

            Oil at $38.20 so it is closing in on that target as hoped for.

            Apr 07, 2016 07:36 AM

            Well – Oil did bust up through the $38 level last night to $38.29, but didn’t quite hit the zone I was looking for. However, WTI has reversed down with a red daily candle today as projected (currently at $36.99).

            http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart

            Apr 07, 2016 07:51 AM

            Yep – Oil is putting in a long red daily candle indeed – now down to $36.79.

    b
    Apr 06, 2016 06:31 PM

    zero hedge has a bug, I couldnt find a way to contact them.