Pundit's Perspectives – Tue 19 Apr, 2016

A New Development for Gold: Now the Hedge Funds Are In

I have said for a while that if we want to see any sustained move in the metals we need large funds to start buying. We can see by the increased investment in EFTs such as GLD that big money has begun to invest some money in the sector. This article posted over at Gold-Eagle recaps what we have seen this year and the similarities from 2012. These are crucial buyers with large wallets that can support moves higher.

We all know that gold has seen a positive 2016. Even with the stock market performing well, it seems as though many money managers and bankers the world over are perfectly happy to invest in gold. We’ve seen that in the past months with Chinese central banks investing more in gold. But what if it’s not enough that central banks are buying up gold? What if you needed to see the hedge funds move in on gold before you made a decision?

Click here for the full article.


Comments:
  1. On April 19, 2016 at 8:50 am,
    CFS says:

    Velcomen to the Vestern Vorld Veimar Republic.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 8:59 am,
      One of the Peters says:

      Willkommen in der westliche-Welt Weimar Republik.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 9:04 am,
        OOTB..................... CCF says:

        translate for all us goldtars……………

      • On April 19, 2016 at 9:59 am,
        CFS says:

        One is so bestimmt!

  2. On April 19, 2016 at 8:53 am,
    CFS says:

    In case you did not notice, the U.S. Dollar is about to fall seriously.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:03 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      it did get wacked………………94 …..

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:29 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      SGE?

      • On April 19, 2016 at 9:36 am,
        CFS says:

        Shanghai Gold Exchange

        • On April 19, 2016 at 9:54 am,
          Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

          Yep I realise CFS SGE was in response to dollar getting whacked! Best, A

    • On April 19, 2016 at 1:40 pm,
      Don Corleone says:

      dx has to go down further.Eur/usd target 1.2.Having said that from 10th march todate gold has fallen with the dx.Usually they are inversely correlated.That makes it very bearish for gold too.

  3. On April 19, 2016 at 8:55 am,
    OOTB..................... CCF says:

    We posted the notice several days ago…….concerning the hedge funds……… πŸ™‚

    • On April 19, 2016 at 8:56 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      Real noticeable on the HUI………..

  4. On April 19, 2016 at 8:57 am,
    OOTB..................... CCF says:

    $17 silver on the way…………

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:28 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      “Silver surges to 10.5 month high”…….kitco (like who even noticed …. πŸ™‚

  5. On April 19, 2016 at 8:59 am,
    OOTB..................... CCF says:

    SOMEONE PUT OUT A NOTICE ON THE………………………….SGE………. πŸ™‚

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:00 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      I SEE zerohedge has mentioned it……….

      • On April 19, 2016 at 9:01 am,
        OOTB..................... CCF says:

        OK, CORY………….you can post it now………. πŸ™‚

        • On April 19, 2016 at 9:07 am,
          confused says:

          OOTB,
          I think you mean 17.50 ish silver coming soon

          • On April 19, 2016 at 9:14 am,
            OOTB..................... CCF says:

            Yes, I was confused……… πŸ™‚

  6. On April 19, 2016 at 9:14 am,
    Matthew says:

    Meanwhile, in the LOL department…

    On April 16, 2016 at 2:30 am,
    Birdman says:

    “…I went short gold miners (and silver) several days back at what will likely prove to have been the exact top for the shares.

    The charts back me up too as do the technicals. Silvers run is finished. So has gold’s. Now only the crying remains for the bulls as their hard sought gains begin to evaporate…”

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:15 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      Hope , he did not buy that DUST…………… πŸ™‚

      • On April 19, 2016 at 11:18 am,
        Birdman says:

        Jerry, I still hold a DUST position and I may even add to it soon.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 11:33 am,
          Don Corleone says:

          Stick to your guns birdman.You are on the money. There is a positive divergence on the macd and that alone speaks a thousand words birdman.Besides that all indicators are in oversold territory.I have my finger on the trigger ready to pull.Price is nearing my target i.e. the lower line of the andrew’s pitchfork at 1.8.Tommorrow is gonna be the day imho.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 11:41 am,
            Birdman says:

            You see oil declining tomorrow Don?

          • On April 19, 2016 at 1:31 pm,
            Don Corleone says:

            Technicals look tremendously weak for oil birdman.Oil is about to decline birdman too.No asset will escape the grip of the deflationary pressure that is coming.Oil has dropped to 10.65 in dec of 1998.History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme πŸ™‚ Do not bet on higher prices in oil birdman.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 2:10 pm,
            Birdman says:

            I was only wondering about your take for tomorrow. Not the next few years!

          • On April 19, 2016 at 3:29 pm,
            Don Corleone says:

            I am not trading oil atm birdman.Every asset is a beast of its own but technicals look weak.This week or early next week oil is gonna plummet imho.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 11:35 am,
          OOTB..................... CCF says:

          BIRD………..just a note ….gary , says not to buy DUST for at least 4-5 yrs., but, then again his GURU STATUS is at 45%, that was in the reply section posted today.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 11:41 am,
            Birdman says:

            Right. He is not a guru in any case. That tag is given for the purpose of comedy. He approaches every trade with a certainty that defies explanation yet is only correct half the time of less as he exhorts followers to buy his picks. As far as I can tell he was really only good on his NASDAQ and gold calls.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:24 am,
      confused says:

      Matt, your technicals clearly won the battle here and I hope you and Birder can stop fighting as both your perspectives are valid…sometimes you are right but not always. I do think the shorts will have there day eventually, but hopefully at a much lesser retracement. $17.50 silver next.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 9:39 am,
        Matthew says:

        It’s not my fighting, Confused. Bird is despicable in his approach to differing with me and it is crystal clear that he, not I, brought back the attacks when he returned weeks ago.

        I am definitely not always right, but I have to point out that all the buying I did last year worked out extremely well even though it appeared to wrong for a long time.

        In addition to specific opportunities for everyone’s consideration, I pointed out three important things months ago that proved to be dead-on.

        -Focus on value

        -Focus on the weekly charts, not daily, and

        -Don’t sell too much because surprises will be to the upside!

        Birdman, frankly, has been worthless, as usual, but few seem to realize it.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 9:41 am,
          Matthew says:

          P.s. – Bird would be ruthless if I were the one that had been wrong today. He reaps what he sows, as he should.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 10:25 am,
          confused says:

          You are right BM can be a meany and I see your points. I still think he has some good things to bring to the table that’s all. Now let get back to making money.
          Good luck

          • On April 19, 2016 at 10:36 am,
            Matthew says:

            I have fantastic gains today, hope you do too.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 11:16 am,
        Wayne says:

        Homosexuality kills.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 12:12 pm,
          b says:

          Where did that come from wayne?

          • On April 19, 2016 at 5:03 pm,
            Wayne says:

            It came from Heaven.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 9:33 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      Matthew best to ignore BM outright. His comments about Africa are all that I can credit him with. He’s solely an attention-seeker, more so when he reverts to calling himself Birdman! Best, A

      • On April 19, 2016 at 9:44 am,
        Matthew says:

        You are absolutely right, Andrew, but his attacks on me and my calls are a bit more extreme than those he delivers to most others, and they are always inaccurate.

        Best to you, maybe I’ll learn…

        • On April 19, 2016 at 11:23 am,
          Birdman says:

          You are a promoter. All of them disgust me.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 10:56 am,
      Birdman says:

      One day of trading does not change my outlook whatsoever, Matthew. I took strategic positions for good reasons and have no intention to unload them even if they are early.

      If you feel confident about a directional change you will hold to that unless the market and technicals change but in the meantime a hedge is more than satisfactory to whether the existing trend.

      You should know that of course or you would never have held losing gold miner positions during the worst years in the belief that a turnaround would eventually come. Unless you trade like a butterfly and flit in and out like a twit you are generally better off holding once you have become certain that the trade will at some point go in your favour.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 11:21 am,
        Bobby says:

        Good time to sell some junk, premiums seem to be great.

  7. On April 19, 2016 at 9:57 am,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

    Matthew, Neither of us are can forget what he said to us in earlier posts. Besides he only lays into you because he knows you’re more than a match for him!!

    • On April 19, 2016 at 11:00 am,
      Birdman says:

      I don’ regret a word of what I said Andrew because my beliefs have not changed. I can accept you but as a rule have no respect for the clergy because of the perversions against Christianity so many have commit. Sorry, I won’t apologize about that.

  8. On April 19, 2016 at 10:26 am,
    Kent, CFA says:

    Gold and Silver are obviously entering new bull markets. Many will miss due to the negative Cots currently. They then try to read the charts with that negative bias as their backdrop and misread. The majority of gold and silver stock charts are clearly bullish if one knows anything about technical analysis. Yes, the Cots are negative. That means there will be a sharp but short correction [in time] along the way. Negative Cots in a bull market and negative Cots in a bear market need completely different interpretation. Read the charts without bias to reach the correct conclusion.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 10:51 am,
      Matthew says:

      +1 to each and every line of your comment.

      All known info is reflected in the chart.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 12:49 pm,
      Brian says:

      Nice post, Kent

      • On April 19, 2016 at 2:50 pm,
        OOTB..................... CCF says:

        +3

  9. On April 19, 2016 at 10:56 am,
    Matthew says:

    Gold has run into some resistance at the 55 month EMA today (currently about 1,253).

    http://schrts.co/ttRtYG

    • On April 19, 2016 at 11:31 am,
      Lewis says:

      So Matthew where do you think silver will go without getting any kind of pullback? Just trying to figure out where I can think about taking some profits and then repositioning myself.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 11:44 am,
        Matthew says:

        $18.50 seems like an easy minimum but if you’re talking about booking profits in your miners, I would look at each of their charts as well.

        I believe this move is just getting started. Here’s SLV (18 for it equals roughly 18.50 for silver):

        http://schrts.co/DoqypA

        • On April 19, 2016 at 11:56 am,
          Lewis says:

          I would agree with you.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 12:36 pm,
            Matthew says:

            To tell you the truth, I look at resistance levels for profit-booking zones but I don’t generally use them as fixed targets. For bigger sales, I prefer to look for signs that the trend is weakening significantly before I act.

  10. On April 19, 2016 at 11:07 am,
    Birdman says:

    On the topic of gold and miners, Martin Armstrong has written the following comments today:

    “There has been no breakout and there is major overhead resistance. Caution is now advisable. It is best to take profits…..” ~~ Martin Armstrong

    Gold Stocks: 7 Month High? — Armstrong Economics April 19, 2016
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-stocks-7-month-high/

    • On April 19, 2016 at 11:10 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      You must get his email also…………..

      • On April 19, 2016 at 11:20 am,
        Birdman says:

        Why?

        • On April 19, 2016 at 11:30 am,
          OOTB..................... CCF says:

          No question, just letting you know that I get the same info each day from M. A. .. πŸ™‚

  11. On April 19, 2016 at 11:15 am,
    Don Corleone says:

    I said repeatedly that gold is still in a bearish trend as long as it does not rise above the 1307.64 level.I have been saying for quite awhile now that an expanding diagonal triangle(EDT) is forming.Atm we are in wave c of wave 4 of this EDT which could very well have a truncated v wave giving the overextended iii wave.Giving that this wave 4 has taken the shape of an expanding flat,wave c must be an impulse wave and it should not exceed the end of wave 2 at 1307.64.That is why I said many times that this is the mother of all bull traps because many analysts are taking this impulse wave as the start of a bull trend.Besides that gold is forming a rounding top and that is bearish for gold.A rounding top may forms at the end of an extended upward trend and often indicates a reversal in the long-term price movement.The commercial net shorts are at record levels.The 50 weekly ubb is turning down and the weekly rsi is nearing the overbought territory and macd and signal line are nearing a crossover(i.e. macd falling below the signal line) which is bearish too.Besides all this gold is still trending between 2 parallel lines on the weekly.One can draw the upper trendline from 1st oct 2012 to 7th march 2016 and the lower trendline from 26th sep touching 16th dec 2013 and see by himself what I am talking about.There is a great probability that we could see 750 by year end.A waterfall decline like we had in oil.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 11:22 am,
      Birdman says:

      Thanks Don. I would not want to speculate on 750 but in general agree that technicals favour a correction in gold and miners in the not so distant future.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 11:53 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      There is not a gut….in gold………..we have a gut in oil.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 11:54 am,
        OOTB..................... CCF says:

        but, I agree with the 1307-8 number……..

      • On April 19, 2016 at 2:00 pm,
        Don Corleone says:

        when margin calls start to kick in there is gonna be a glut in all assets ootb and that is called deflation.Mark my words .

        • On April 19, 2016 at 2:29 pm,
          OOTB..................... CCF says:

          DO you think the INDIANS AND CHINESE are on margin? just wondering…….

          • On April 19, 2016 at 3:37 pm,
            Don Corleone says:
          • On April 20, 2016 at 7:26 am,
            OOTB..................... CCF says:

            Chinese……..from the DENT article………..cash and real estate. Since the Chinese were over invested in us treasury bonds, they needed to over invest in real estate ASSETS, which they thought would be of real value to them.( this comes from other sources)

          • On April 20, 2016 at 7:35 am,
            OOTB..................... CCF says:

            BTW…….Don……..THANKS FOR THE REPLY…………. J…….

    • On April 19, 2016 at 12:00 pm,
      Brian says:

      Don
      Just wondering if you are currently trading tis gold market, or, just waiting for the predicted pullback of gold below 1050 (and maybe 750)
      Brian

      • On April 19, 2016 at 1:14 pm,
        Don Corleone says:

        I do stock trading for living brian and I trade ups and downs.A swing trader but on a longer timeframe.I am interested in price trends and patterns and I careless what is the name of the stock.The trend is my friend being it to the upside or downside.My number one motto is not to marry to any position and not to trade on emotions.I am very objective in my views and when I see that the tide has shifted I will be the first to trade accordingly.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 2:08 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Sounds good to me Don. I like your style brother!

        • On April 19, 2016 at 2:24 pm,
          Brian says:

          Good to know your strategy, I was just curious.

  12. On April 19, 2016 at 11:54 am,
    Chartster says:

    Don,
    I completely agree re the weekly gold chart. I’m thinking gold and silver might just double bottom instead of seeing new lows. Silver is looking stronger than gold on the weekly chart.

    The banks, JNK and oil all…have more head fakes going on than Steph Curry. The junk bonds and banks, as well as oil are due for a smack down! Which should bring the stock exchange with them in a couple weeks. Things are getting close to a tipping point.

    • On April 19, 2016 at 11:58 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      ditto on the silver………

    • On April 19, 2016 at 1:20 pm,
      Don Corleone says:

      If the pattern that I referred to( i.e. the expanding diagonal triangle) in my previous posts realizes itself ,we will see lower lows.That is a certainty and when I say that we could have a waterfall decline in gold, I really mean it.What happened to oil is gonna happen to gold.It is a question of time.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 1:51 pm,
        Chartster says:

        It only makes sense to have one final flush to this bear market. There is still too many deadbeat miners. So, I agree.

      • On April 19, 2016 at 2:06 pm,
        Birdman says:

        I hope you are correct Don. Listening to a few interviews tonight though and the bullishness on metals remains in the stratosphere. Almost nobody seems to believe that gold can correct from here. The excuses and rationalizations are all over the place.

        For example….gold and silver are *small* markets and can’t fall if serious money gets involved. Or this one…price is consolidating in time and recent bullishness is being worked off without any declines likely in the near future. After that its up and away so get busy buying now.

        Or another is that now the “smart money” has arrived its all blue sky’s ahead as gold finally finds its footing. Today’s latest bull incarnation is to attribute silvers sudden spike to the new Chinese price fix as if that really has any bearing on anything.

        But what almost nobody says is that things that rise eventually also correct.

        Nothing ever goes straight up or straight down. So did all the armchair analysts lose their heads all of a sudden such that gold will mysteriously only rise from here without even a pullback?

        Apparently these guys just forgot all about how normal markets work with regular ups and downs. But then…you know, now that the “manipulators” have finally lost control the prices of gold and silver will be returning to their real value! I think it was Andy Hoffman who made that assertion.

        Unbelievable. Truly amazing. Only in the gold world does this kind of logic pass the smell test and not get challenged by anyone! But here is a shocker for the bugs….even gold will experience the feelings of gravity again.

        Record Commercial short positions assure us that this market still has two dimensions.

        • On April 19, 2016 at 3:56 pm,
          Don Corleone says:

          Be greedy when the others are fearful and fearful when the others are greedy and remember birdman good things comes to those who wait.It is all about timing when it comes to trading 3x leveraged etfs.My self assurance comes from the technical background that I have.If it was not for the technicals I would be gambling and not trading.Commercials are canny people and one thing I never do in trading is betting against them.

          • On April 20, 2016 at 2:32 am,
            Skeeta says:

            So you have both missed this entire run up % wise so far then Don & Bird ?
            You are still in DUST & adding to it Bird ?
            There is a time to hedge…but I don’t think its right now.
            Cheers.

          • On April 20, 2016 at 3:10 am,
            Birdman says:

            Pay attention Skeeta! I have posted on this innumerable times already.

            I was in miners and NUGT since the December low when I told everyone here I had turned bullish and then I sold those at what I thought was the gold top some weeks back. It was not perfectly timed but so what?

            I have since strategically entered a DUST trade to try and catch some of the correction back down. I was a little early there. It has been a waiting game thus far but I still believe it will reward given time so no worries, mate.

            Just so you know I am no longer entirely in the gold bear camp. I play both sides of the trade if it looks like there is an opportunity. It is both normal and expected following a parabolic run like gold and silver have seen recently to see a strong retracement.

            I don’t know exactly when it will happen but am holding because the odds favour such a move. If G-d wills it then I will succeed with my choice of bets.

  13. On April 19, 2016 at 12:31 pm,
    Chartster says:
    • On April 19, 2016 at 12:46 pm,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      I like the way they talk about “naked shorts”………..it seems there are a lot of people who do not know what is going on……

      • On April 19, 2016 at 12:48 pm,
        OOTB..................... CCF says:

        “the exchange does not set the price , the market does”…………per the article , I guess the LONDON FIX is bs…….. πŸ™‚

        • On April 19, 2016 at 12:59 pm,
          OOTB..................... CCF says:

          “the contracts are physically settled”………per the article………hummmm.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 1:13 pm,
            Chartster says:

            OOTB,
            What the article says in it’s example was. The COMEX is primarily used by bullion buyers as a hedge for the physical delivery. Example: If a bank sells a ton to another bank, the do a put and a call for the same value. So when they sign the contract, the phyz is not paid for until it’s delivered. They hedge the bet on both sides so they have the same value from contract to delivery. There is no price setting or manipulation there. It’s just a hedging mechanism for phyz.
            Like I said, we live and learn…πŸ˜•

          • On April 19, 2016 at 1:15 pm,
            Chartster says:

            The London ” Fix ” is another story.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 1:30 pm,
            OOTB..................... CCF says:

            LOOKS LIKE A screwed up mess…………….to me……..

          • On April 19, 2016 at 1:36 pm,
            Chartster says:

            It actually makes a lot of sense. I just never knew it was used primarily for that type of transactions. I’m still blown out by Not knowing it..
            Not many understand it’s true uses.

          • On April 19, 2016 at 2:32 pm,
            OOTB..................... CCF says:

            Looks like a whole lot of GURUS…….do not know either……….. πŸ™‚

  14. On April 19, 2016 at 12:51 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Yes, I never looked at the use of the COMEX as a hedge for physical delivery. I thought it was more speculative trading. I guess we live and learn.

    • On April 20, 2016 at 7:28 am,
      OOTB..................... CCF says:

      SGE………..will change that……………