Is a sideways move good or back for US markets and gold?
We wrap up the markets today with help from Doc. The US markets recovered from the morning lows and gold was stead up marginally but the bigger picture question is if these markets continue to move sideways for another month at least which one will break first?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Blarney stuff?
Enthusiasm? Come on Al, after almost 500 posts on the weekend and about 100,000 words I think your posting contributors are burned out!
Hi Bird…..We are just having a wee rest. We don’t like Mondays, as in the song.
I need a rest too. It’s my bedtime here. Tomorrow is another day. Got to take the horse out for a run. I hate that damned horse. Never really cooperates with me. Goes left when I pull right and stops for no reason at all. Probably because I am a softie and wasn’t too big on the training.
They are not my conttibutors, Bird. They are part of our great family and that includes YOU. We have to get together some time!
You sure? After my obnoxious posts in January I am surprised you are even talking to me. But OK.
Did you know that “SNOT” is an adhesive.
Forgive me Bird, I’m just been flippant to up the comments.
As usual I aint got anything of worth to post.
Sure you do Tony. What do you think about the FOMC release this week. Up day for gold or down? Or what about stock markets? Over the top and away we go or maybe flat line and take a dive?
I figure if we don’t get a market correction in May and get it out of the way that Hillary might not win the election because the odds of an uglier correction around election time will increase thus proving Trump correct.
Just a theory of course. The Fed could start doing like Japan and just buy up the market between now and then so that everything is rosy no matter what happens. What I wonder lately is what it means when the Central Banks of the world put all major assets onto their balance sheets.
Since the BOJ now holds such a majority position on the domestic ETF’s and stocks it seems that everything under the sun will end up socialized. They will hold all the debt, most of the equities and in the end be dishing out cash to citizens who won’t own squat.
Over in Europe…same story. Over in China, the Party and its proxies have heavily invested in both stock markets and debt markets. On our shores it is still primarily confined to debt (as far as we know) but how long before the FED starts buying up the markets too?
Does that not seem crazy at first blush? That the CB’s just buy it all. I can hardly wrap my head around it really. What will be left? Just large multinationals who have board members appointed by government and Central Bank authorities and that are themselves beholden to the bank mandarins who now run the world.
You really should write a book, Bird!
I just did!!!!!
One day I will collect all my posts together and sell them as a Kindle. That should be a great sleeping pill. I will title it “Bedtime Stories for Insomniacs”.
Bird,
I believe the aim of the Fed is really no different than that of Japan, China or Europe; they have and, if necessary, will continue print, buy, cook and make solvent whatever they need or want to. Sure, there might be some differences between the 3 blocks in how they do this, but the stakes are WAY too high now to allow markets to ever return to what folks might understand as “normal or free-ish”. This is the new normal until the 3 blocks cut a deal and avoid WW3 and or global collapse. If I am wrong, then this world is about to become very unlivable for the %100:{
Bird….Your last paragraph sums it all up…That’s what TPP is all about.
That may be the case Irish.
Just think about what is really happening in front of our own eyes.
Who has issued most of the student loan debt? (Government)
Who bought up so much of the Mortgage backed Securities / housing (Fed)
Who snapped up millions of foreclosed US homes and created a rental society? (Corporate friends)
Who is the largest holder of Treasuries? (Fed and Treasury)
Who is buying up the stock market via proxies? (Fed).
Who is the custodian of most public debt? (various levels of government)
When will the Fed start buying up corporate debt? (likely soon)
What I am getting at here is that the Fed and various branches and levels of government might eventually own a serious proportion if not absolute majority of all major asset classes including debt incurred for education, housing, Treasuries, corporate bonds and even US stock markets.
EVERYTHING could eventually be socialized such that final ownership rests in the hands of just a few agencies or those who managed to cling to their assets during a serious economic decline.
And the majority of people will end up entirely disenfranchised. This is hardly unlikely given that half the US population already does not have enough nickels to scrape together to buy a new set of tires for their car.
And given the huge numbers already accepting social benefits, pensions and assorted income relief including free food and subsidy housing it would appear we are quite close to the day when the majority really do become entirely beholden to the state.
Cradle to grave benefits. No real cash anymore. Landless and deeply in debt. What does that tell us? To me it says that socialism has already arrived. All that remains is for the public to vote in a guy like Bernie Sanders who will tax the crap out of the surviving middle to upper classes and then the noose is complete.
What a crazy world!
I once asserted on this site that the US debt was totally inconsequential in the event of a true economic crisis because it was roughly equal in size to all the pensions in the country. Should we perhaps consider that equity might one day be swapped into debt and all pensions become socialized as well?
I don’t think that is such a crazy thought after all.
If we collectively own all the debt domestically (to ourselves) then we really are beholden to nobody outside the borders. There is not therefore a crisis of unrepayable debts that cannot be met without a response.
The Saudi threat to dump Treasuries is empty. China’s ownership of a mountain of that paper is equally meaningless. Money is whatever we make it when the chips come down.
But what exactly do you call a state that owns everything yet continues to hold elections and behaves democratically? There needs to be a new term because it is not socialist in the typical sense.
But no matter how bad it seems it will get in the developed economies I am pretty sure it will be a lot worse for the emerging markets like China where Wealth Management products are going to hit the wall in a few years.
Those Ponzi’s which are invested in the most dangerous of bubbles and are heavily involved in lending to bankrupt enterprises will be going bust by large number soon enough. Plenty of people thinking that they had a secure retirement are going to discover their money is gone when the housing bubble there finally bursts an artery and implodes.
So could China return from whence it came? That is the question.
Wtong, the correct spelling is s’not which is short for is not. Like in that is snot right. Common man, the queen’s english!
Al…Thanks for the lesson, but I was referring to snot as what comes out of ones nose.
A nothing day today. Markets seemed nervous to me. Unsure of what to do. Had the usual pump at the end of the day.
Not sure about this talked about ‘golden cross’ – it is supposed to be a positive isn’t it… but last time we had one the markets tanked a few days later. So much for that.
Its not a great indicator but the bulls will use whatever they can.
You ready to go full in on DUST and JDST on Wednesday Birdman when the Fed raises rates and everything goes BANG!? 🙂
So far the first rate hike was pretty good for gold so no-hike is preferred. The dollar lost about 6% since that hike was called and metals went ballistic which was not what anybody was predicting.
A second one would soften up the dollar even more I suppose. I have positions in both and they are green but if the Fed moves to signal a hike I may be forced to change tack or bail out. Thing is, the charts don’t tell me that gold is about to rise so maybe that is our answer and the Federal Reserve just holds the course for now.
JDST in particular is telling us it has a big move coming as volumes have really been picking up. Check the chart below and note how volumes are curving upwards since early February. That buying could be explosive if gold takes a dive anytime soon.
Like they say….buy what others are buying and sell what others are selling. The market is smarter than all of us put together so I won’t argue with the numbers. I will be adding to this if it gets jiggy and gets more positive.
JDST chart — 6 months
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JDST+Interactive#{%22range%22:%226mo%22,%22showPrePost%22:false,%22didDisablePrePost%22:true,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Yes, I noticed the volume after what you wrote over the weekend.
Until the Fed says one way or the other it is impossible to even guess which way things will go – a coin toss. Looks like some are gambling on the oil price declining though.
That is a good bet Bob. I am in that camp too.
Matthew, I just received Resource World’s latest copy and they have a great write up of Impact Silver called ten years of production and counting. You sure picked a dandy.DT
Thanks for sharing that, DT. I didn’t know about Resource World. Even I can afford a membership 🙂
Doesn’t look good:
Gold fork action…
Rick’s target just happens to be the same as this fork resistance…
Getting capped by two (superimposed) Fibonacci arcs…
Monthly Fib arcs provide support…
11 weeks in what appears to be a bullish consolidation…
Failure here would likely be at least somewhat ugly for the miners.
Doc,
You see the BBands, you see the MACD , and all of the other indicators. It looks to me like gold is going down.. The next few weeks/months are gonna be interesting..
I thought so too. How about Oil ???
The cycle man said 9 yr cycle lower coming later this year the final. that is what
Doc. said before. Gold is going lower .
Yes, oil too by my readings. Check the ETF chart of DWTI to see why. It has hit a key inflection point and looks likely to rise again very soon.
Andrew’s pitchforks based on monthly closing prices…
This is not bearish at all (big picture).
Birdman….The January fed hike and gold’s upswing was a classic sell the rumor buy the news. A rate hike this time around i think would be different. I am in DUST but as with these Kamikazee ETF’s, very nervous.
Biggus, I would not worry for one second if I were you. The future is on the charts (in my opinion) provided can you wait for the market to come to you. This is my personal trade outlook of course and you must do what you think is correct especially if you feel nervous.
But let me discuss DUST here in some detail and it may allay your worry.
Look at the two year chart closely. It exhibits a classic pattern in the last couple of months that indicates selling exhaustion as it slowly curves downwards and forms the beginnings of a bowl shape.
At this time it is very near to where we might infer a bottom has been reached or is quickly approaching. That is not a guarantee of course but it is likely.
The suggestion that it will now turn up is pretty strong as such patterns tend to complete. They do so with varying degrees of strength of course and this one will be no different. Nobody can know for certain how far up it may climb once the trend begins to rise again off the bottom of the bowl.
This is called a low risk trade set up. Downside is limited to where you put your stop and that is further limited to how much money you risk on the trade. Upside on the other hand is theoretically multiples of what you put down as a ber.
So if you invested a theoretical 1000 dollars (The number is not important here, this is just an example) you might stand to lose 200 if DUST fell 10% deeper than its current 2 bucks. On the other hand, should DUST rise back to 8 dollars in the next two months you just earned a four bagger.
So limited downside off a very low price point and strong potential on the upside if miners do indeed fall back (that’s the premise here) and you can hold through the ups and downs. Risk/Reward is heavily slanted in your favour in such a case.
Not saying you can’t lose on this. EVERY trade has a risk no matter how certain you are. But the tide is n your favour after such a steep decline which was caused by a parabolic run-up in the underlying asset. So you just stack odds in your favour, say a prayer and buy it and wait if you *beleive* that the mining stocks have a price retrace in their future.
This chart is a perfect example of what the bull-camp of metals retards do not want you to see. The last thing those guys want is traders selling their baby and taking a profit.
No matter how deeply you peel back the layers of all their bullshit and bluster you will NEVER find a single word indicating there is something other than a bull case for gold or the miners. And don’t count on getting any help from the crowd on this site other than just a select few guys like Excelsior and Don.
All i can add is this: Play the trade fearlessly because odds are in your favour on a technical basis. Note volume buying of other traders. Note the entry level price and chart pattern. Do NOT get brainwashed by all the metal-heads and their nonsense hype. And especially don’t worry about the ding dongs who keep saying you need to sell out of ETF’s every weekend or some other claptrap.
Within reasonable time frames these things can be held which you will know by the rise and fall of the pattern on the chart. JDUST has a similar if not better outlook so also check that one. Hope you feel better now! 🙂
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X ETF (DUST) —- 2.08
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DUST+Interactive#{%22range%22:%222y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Correction: I wrote “you might stand to lose 200 if DUST fell 10%” but that should have actually said….. “you might stand to lose 100 dollars if DUST fell 10%”.
DUST almost looks like a slam dunk to me.
Will pick up the DUST after this next leg up.
Waiting is less risky, no question about that. For me it is a matter of anticipation so I get in early. At that point I will just hold and wait. If i think I have made a good judgement I rarely sweat about it as price rises and falls. You have got to think for yourself though. You must know WHY you are buying a trade. So it is not gambling but rather strategic low risk bets.
There is always a chance it fails to pay off or goes against you though. Life happens.
+1
Ha! My detractors on this site are just dying for me to be wrong, I have been sticking my neck out here for years though and it never got lopped off yet. With luck I will go another round and be correct again. 🙂
As an aside Biggus, i bet fairly heavily on both of these two ETF’s plus a number of others. I am not losing any sleep over it. Both are in the green already however they may yet fall back but that is not a big concern. I am prepared to hold up to several months depending on what happens with gold or alternatively sell if the trade goes against me. The important thing is that risk is fairly limited but the opportunity is high. This is much better than casino odds especially given the historically extreme positioning of the speculative long traders.
Eric Sprott Increases Newmarket Gold Shareholdings to 17.9% by Purchasing 16.2 Million Newmarket Common Shares at $2.80 Per Share(Reuters)
Canada’s Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD) (NYSE:EGO) has signed an agreement to sell its 82% stake the Jinfeng mine in China to a wholly-owned subsidiary of China National Gold Group for US$300 million in cash.(Mining.com)
This is just another nationalization of another gold mine. As per usual the Chinese are playing the long game on Gold.
Nationalization is a scary word,hope they don´t take my SVM.TO
Oban Mining drills 2.5 m of 41.8 g/t Au at Windall Lake(Stockwatch.com)
The Globe and Mail.
Pretium Resources Inc.: Valley of the Kings Infill Drilling Continues to Intersect High Grade Gold
05:00 EDT Tuesday, April 26, 2016
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – April 26, 2016) – Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX:PVG)(NYSE:PVG) (“Pretivm” or the “Company”) is pleased to report an eighth set of results from the underground infill drill program at the Brucejack Project’s Valley of the Kings. Results continue to confirm the style and grade distribution of the Valley of the Kings gold mineralization in the area currently being tested, which includes the intersection of high grade and visible gold. Reported assays include five intersections grading greater than 1,000 grams per tonne gold as well as long intervals of gold mineralization. (See Table 1 below for assays.)
There is an increasing concern about bank stability.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is scheduled to review new rules on the amount of liquidity lenders are obliged to have on hand at a meeting Today. The net stable funding ratio will require all banks to reduce their reliance on short-term funding that can be volatile, in favor of more stable long-term funding that is more expensive. The new rules are part of a broader effort to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis.
There is also concern at the LBMA of shortage of physical metal, especially silver, at the higher than usual volume of trading today.
If anyone wants a lot of JAG, there’s currently 2,777,500 shares available at .38 CAD.
Let me guess……Are they all yours?
so it ain’t going higher too soon?
Ive got a smally pos
I have orders in place to buy. Those shares will disappear in a blink if gold cooperates a little. Ten times that amount traded in two days after my first purchase.
Matthew,speaking of JAG and South America,are you familiar with SSP.V?
And if you are,what do you think?
They have a lot of gold and copper.
Hi Pete, I am not very familiar with SSP but it looks like maybe I should be. The chart speaks for itself. I hope you benefited from that move.
Thank you for the chart Matthew,yes i own some SSP.
Sandspring Resources is one of Scott Gibson’s favorite exploration companies.
Hi Excelsior,i have 4 from that list too. Top Holdings for Kitco Gibson and Beneath the Surface
(as at March 31, 2016):
Aston Bay Holdings Ltd.
Eastmain Resources Inc.
Eurasian Minerals Inc.
First Mining Finance Corp.
GoldQuest Corporation
Kaminak Gold Corporation
Lion One Metals Limited
Midas Gold Corp.
Mirasol Resources Ltd.
Precipitate Gold Corp.
Pure Gold Mining
Roughrider Exploration Limited
Sabina Gold & Silver Corp.
SilverCrest Metals Inc.
West Red Lake Gold Mines I
Strategic Metals owns almost 30% of Precipitate Gold…
Since Bill mentioned Eric Coffin today…
Did Gibson comment on SSP?
SVM.TO just keeps climbing higher,where is it going, 3,10 ?
Thank you Matthew.
Sandspring has an agreement with Silver Wheaton,apparently they “selected” SSP.V over 50 other juniors with decent gold assets(I know what Rob Mcewen thinks of streaming deals)
But they also did a separate financing a week or so ago, in which the idiots gave a full warrant with a 5 year duration.
That tells me incompetent management!
They may know mining, but they don’t know finance.
Sandstorm SAND did the same thing?
Dust and JDUST will be reverse split on May 18 at a ratio of 1:10
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/direxion-announces-reverse-splits-two-000200774.html
While going through the data data data.
Rate hike has moved from 30% chance to 85%. Gasoline broke out and oil is now looking to see $48….
No big move down for gold…..
I’ve been saying for years that interest rate hikes would not only not be bad for gold, but that they would be positive. The hike in December proved that to be the case and the next one will be even better.
On COMEX, open interest in silver at over 201 thousand contracts and climbing, we are talking over 140% of annual production. It seems like a failure to deliver, forced cash settlement, is getting closer and closer…
And yet even today the bank’s nakedly short……it won’t be long before these Empoorers are seen to not be wearing clothes.
I typed banks; my IPad decided it knew better.
Mathew your a bull now.
Did you catch Eric Coffins
CKNW audio vault 23rd 9:00am starts 6-7 min in
Good concervative analysts.
And I completely concure with Eric.
No, I didn’t catch that but I will now. Eric is generally very good in my experience with his calls.
Thanks.
Thanks for the link Billy & Matthew.
So Coffin and Weldon CAUTIOUS now on PMs but bullish longer term….
Music to bullish ears:
We would note to this that bulls should be very happy to hear that the rally is still disbelieved. It is of course quite natural that an initial rally after a steep bear market meets with a great deal of skepticism – but once an index has risen by more than 100%, most of the skepticism has usually been dispelled.
Not so in gold stocks it seems. It gets even better – after noting that gold miner ETFs have “burned” through a lot of investors cash (which is no surprise given a bear market decline of 83% from peak to trough), Bloomberg writes further:
Throw in a few of the smaller gold miner ETFs as well, add it all up, and such funds have effectively burned through about $8 billion in investor cash. That’s more than any other industry, sector, or category.
This explains why such an intense rally can coincide with outflows, as many burned investors are getting out and trimming losses before they get burned again. One gold miner ETF is seeing some significant inflows, however. The only problem? It’s the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (DUST), which is down 88 percent. Meanwhile, the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares (JNUG) has put in a jaw-dropping return of 294 percent (along with outrageous volatility that is 10 times that of the S&P 500).
JNUG is returning four times the returns of its underlying index due to the compounding effect of resetting leverage daily into a upward-moving market. No ETF has ever returned more than 300 percent in a year. Yet JNUG has still seen $83 million in outflows.
The most important factor to note is that people’s expectation of the future is set by their experience in the immediate past, and if all of your experience in the immediate past is negative, the expectation you have for the future is that you’re going to get spanked again.
I like this Rick Rule quote.
And i like that this rally is disbelieved.
If this rally isn´t for real,i will get spanked.
Nice!
A sideways move for gold right now is good thing coming up to the fed BS, get that out of the way & we could have an up tick.
Sideways movement for the markets indicate the powers that be want to keep a happy face,till after the fed BS.