We start Monday with Rick Ackerman and Technicals
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
The DJIA; S&P; and NASDAQ are all starting the week in negative territory as the U.S. dollar drops against the Euro. Yen and Pound Sterling.
The Chances of a COMEX Default…
Posted on April 25, 2016 by The Doc 10 Comments 1,801 views
Share this post:
no deliveries… IS GUARANTEED in my opinion!04/19/2016
The Chance of a Comex Default… Bob Moriarty 321gold
(spoiler..zero)
Mr. Moriarty does not have the most useful definition of default, since he does NOT include failure to deliver in a definition of “default”, apparently.
The Americans default when they didnt deliver to Germany?
Saying that could be treason.
Agreed b!
We don’t actually need any gold as long as everyone will just pretend we have it.
I find that to be a bit surprising, Professor!
Big Al,
How would you interpret:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty041916.html
Congratulations Bil Al!
Bob has a book out on investing…
B, with little respect for your analyst, oil is only “capped” by fracking to a limited degree until the above $50 range.
While there are drilled holes that are not yet being exploited and producing, which will come on line at higher prices than current, much new exploration drilling will not occur below $ 55 a barrel.
Just what he said cfs, no floor. higher prices limited as alot of shale wells come on at higher prices.
The floor comes in when the cost of pumping the oil, and diluting for pipeline flow, etc., exceeds price…..at that point capping the well is done.
I believe almost ALL of the extra production of Iranian oil expected to come onto the market for the rest of this year has been bought up by China at a discounted price of about $5.
Clearly here a lack of knowledge will affect analysts beliefs of what “excess” supply will do to prices.
I expect prices to meander around $38-40 for the next 18 months, with a +/- $5 above and below, mostly depending on tanker availability; which appears to be the major constraint. (Although, I have not looked at the tanker construction pipeline.)
I guess the Iranians will not need to worry about tankers if the Chinese are buying all their oil. They have no problem with ships on the Asian side. Five dollars oil though? Where did you hear that?
Birdman a figure of $6 was reported on zerohedge a few days ago.
Also reported without a $ number on an oil site…..can’t remember which one, but it was mostly talking euros, so it could have been oilbarrel.com
Uganda and independently Kenya announce new oil pipelines construction today.
Iran through Pakistan to India pipeline also discussed 321energy.com
Also:
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Stockpiling-Oil-At-Highest-Rate-In-Over-A-Decade.html
I watched a financial annalist on Market watch the other day.
He was saying oil is “capped” the price rises and shale comes into play “capping” the price.
He says due to political events,Iran,Saudi arguing etc, there is no floor.
According to him $14 is very much “in play”.
Bird, whats your view? Is Rick going to prove correct? Gold up to 1280 before we fall or is it straight down? Well, relatively.
Gold just dropped to 1238.50 about.
B, over the very short term anything is possible and Rick is pretty good on those kind of technical calls. Bigger picture though gold will be declining during May as will silver and the miners. That’s how it looks to me at this moment.
Gary Savage says the same. wait till June to buy gold.
Gary is short term bearish and a longer term bull. I think he is going to be wrong about gold making anything more actionable than a technical bounce during the coming decline. The dollar and loonie are not supportive of his ideas nor is the Yen if it continues the decline it began recently.
Mr Fulp has about a hundred years of records, he says phyz or paper, the time to buy is,(oops forget the month) summer doldrums. Its gotta be June,July, August.
Lets see what the Canadian dollar does. If it turns down anytime soon we can all forget about a summer gold revival.
This thread is terrible AL/Cory.
Any opinion Bird?
If your bothering with this that is.
OzChris – It somehow took me two days to notice your comment so here’s my reply again just in case it got lost among the 460 others:
On April 25, 2016 at 10:08 am,
Matthew says:
Hello OzChris, I don’t follow Perseus but I think Skeeta and Excelsior do. I’m glad you brought it up at this time, though; it looks like something I might want to buy. The weekly chart looks good and it looks cheap at .5 times book, .8 times sales, and 3.1 times cashflow. For comparison, Richmont Mines comes in at 3.3, 3.5, and 11.8, respectively.
Thanks Matthew it did get lost but I appreciate the reply.
Cheers
I’ll stick with what I said on the day that stocks made a new high…
On April 20, 2016 at 11:21 pm,
Matthew says:
Still looks like a bull trap to me…
Matthew always remember to use log scale charts for charting.Djia looks bullish until mid june.
Don, that chart IS log scale but non-log has its place so I don’t agree with “always.”
Matthew If you draw the same trendline trendline on a long term chart on both linear and log scale you will notice an offset.The longer the period of the chart the bigger the offset.
I am aware of that, Don. Linear or log is an option for a reason.
Careful Don, he is the testy type. You can’t tell him anything he does not claim to already know.
Birdman may be now,using the log charts he will realize that our targets were not that absurd 🙂 As the say goes…the devil is in the details birdman
I don’t bother with logs because they don’t really improve my ability to find targets and trades.I have use them of course but shoot….there is only so much time in a day. I mentioned recently that one of the problems I see others making is they over-analyze everything.
You will hear them mixing 5 or 10 different technicals together, drawing lines, doing fibs, calculating RSI, Fibs, Bollingers, estimating Elliots and that sort of thing. They drive themselves crazy.
I just cannot do that and my straightforward methods work VERY well anyway. i am hitting on 85% of my bets which is pretty good by most standards but what I suffer from most though is mistiming.
And that makes me just like everyone else. I usually enter trades too early because I am anticipating far in advance. Lately my wife is taking an interest. When I see something great she tries to calm me down and makes a cup of tea. ‘Patience my love” is her best line yet.
I try to keep it simple too birdman but when trading leveraged etfs I pick as much data as possible to try and pinpoint the exact or near exact entry point.Easier said than done.Leveraged etfs decay is jaw droppingly high even when price index moves sideways.
Of course. you are lucky to score a double. But it is possible timed right.
Re: “…may be now,using the log charts he will realize that our targets were not that absurd.”
Now? What do you mean “now” Don? You were wrong to say that the chart I posted was not a log chart in the first place.
Whether your target for gold proves to be absurd or not (it will), your confidence is misplaced if you missed the fantastic gains in the sector this year.
To exclude the basics in favor of EW seems very expensive to me.
By the end of the year we will see who was right or wrong and who made the best use of the indicators .The proof is in he pudding after all 🙂 Nothing personal matthew ; just a friendly challange 🙂
True, but we already knows who’s been right so far. 😉
So far I have been saying that gold is still in a bearish trend as long as 1307.64 is not breached.I have been saying also that an expanding diagonal triangle is forming and that atm we are in the final stages of wave iv of this EDT.The coming leg will take price of gold to 300pts lower from current levels at a minimum i.e. to 941.From there we will have a nice bounce to 1500 level and down it goes again to the 600 level by 2020.Take care buddy because commodities are gonna take a big stumble.Soft/ hard commodities and base metals all included.When the china bubble pops you will see before your very eyes.It is going to be a cataclysmic and unprecedented blow to all assets.The upheaval caused by deflation will shock the world.Mark my words.
Just because you and many others need 1307 doesn’t mean everyone does.
Your words are marked. 😉
A welcome pullback in the PM miners to ay (I’m Buy&Hold bullish, but I actually felt relieved that most of my stocks are in the red today.)
I assure you oil is not going below 0 as Rick says. Even in the Depression it held at 10 cents a bbl
SPY:GLD is weak but holding up – at least short term.
You made the comment on the weekend show that you thought silver may underperform gold for awhile, do you feel gold will have a rally and silver just kind of mess around the 17 or do you feel with the way the cot structure in silver is we may have a pretty decent drop?
Silver held up surprisingly well today but I still think it will get hit tomorrow and/or the next day. So I think silver will fall while gold falls less or just chops sideways.
Silver
Gold finished up versus silver today but is still looking wimpy.
Gold:Silver
Thank you Matthew I was kind of thinking the same thing so let’s see what develops but I do think if we get that it will be short lived.
However after looking at your chart of silver it is not giving up the fight very easily! That is what I appreciate about your work for those of us that are not Chartists it does give you a clearer picture.
What Big Al? They are a border jumper team at that college? sigh
Dow and S&P are both posting outside reversals today.