May will be a crucial month for the PM and US markets – A look at the monthly charts
Doc joins us today with a look out into May which will be very important for a number of markets. We look at a few shorter term charts but the monthly charts are the most important for investors.
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Does any one know Doc’s website/subscription service internet address. Couldn’t find it on the web.
The banks have NOTHING TO LOSE by driving the price down, even if they run out of physical, because they get to cash settle at the lower price they have caused, and get to keep the profits they mAde by naked short selling earlier at a higher price.
I have been saying that for quite some time!
Thats right cfs, no default at the comex.
There sure is alot of bs in this industry. I wonder why it attracts the type so much.
Its been around a long time, a shotgun blast of gold on a cave wall in the 1800s could pay very well.
I consider settlement in cash, instead of physical to be a default in everything but name, because it will kill the COMEX as far as manufacturing/mining is concerned.
Butler invented the concept of a “Comex default” in a letter to the CFTC in October of 2001. If it was on the verge of happening then and hasn’t happened in 16 years, when will you understand that he made it up and the 462,999 other parrots talking about it are doing nothing more that repeating fiction? The most accurate words in Holter’s piece were in the last sentence when he said, “send money.” That’s what the whole thing was about.
Running out of silver is totally different than a Comex Default and anyone who actually understands supply and demand accepts that will never happen. We will never run out of silver or gold. At any price there is a certain demand. We aren’t running out of anything any time soon.
please post the charts so we can see them…thank you
The difference in behavior of the NYSE and TSX is notable today.
Augurs well for resources!
The market is on a financial viagra high and eventually it will not be able to keep it up. What goes up must come down. QE being pumped in via pumping oil and s&p futures up.
Paul L,
The reason energy stocks and utilities are up has less to do with QE and more to do with larger dividends than on bonds.
A lot of pension funds NEED income (to pay out) and thus are swapping over from bonds to higher dividend stocks, of which energy stocks with lower P/E ratios than average S&P stocks make sense.
I wonder why they had been dumping them not long ago such as when Shell hit around 36 and the dividend at that time might have been 9%. It is now at $52. My BP holding was at $27 then.
As long as interest rates were going down, they were making capital gains on bonds.
Without cap. Gains bonds are not worth holding.
Hey Doc and KER-members.
Thak you very much for a very educating editorial.
How do you like this scenario:
If you believe oil goes up by June. That could move inflation upward as well.
And if inflation moves up, market rates would move as well. An then finally the Fed could move rates again. Being behind the curve, Fed would probably be in September (when the QE in Europe could end) or in november (after the election).
And when rates move up, conventional markets move down…
I think we get a shock rate rise announced tomorrow. Will take everyone by surprise.
USD up. PMs and oil down. Conventionals – no idea.
I don’t know about a rate hike Bob but I would say you are correct the dollar rises and crude falls back. I also see gold and silver taking a dip tomorrow.
Come to the site on Thursday for an important video. I would be very interested in your take.
I think there is just as good of a possibility they reverse track tomorrow and take the previous hike away and announce more QE. The private meetings that they held earlier got me thinking that maybe that is what they were intending to do. Just a thought I had in my head.
Lewis…The thought in your head might just be right.
Well, I am sitting in cash entirely at the moment waiting to see what happens.
The problem is, quite often after these FOMC meetings, the markets shoot in one direction quite aggressively only, for an hour or two later, to then head off in the other direction.
But something as major as a rate rise – or a rate decrease – would be pretty fundamental and the markets would head off in the direction they will probably go for weeks.
So, rate decrease and the USD plunges – gold, silver and oil go off to the races.
So, rate increase and the USD soars – gold, silver and oil head down the plug-hole.
Conventionals – do not have a clue how they would respond either way.
I had considered that the December timing of the rate hike coincided just too well with the seasonal strength in gold such that to the casual observer the two ideas were linked. A second rate hike during golds weak season might just as well push gold down (or at least appear too). Maybe the relationship is not that significant. Its kind of hard to read the tea leaves on that one since cause and effect are in conflict.
I personally think the metals continue higher on whatever announcement is made. The Feds worst enemy right now would have to be deflation and they will do whatever they can to stop it or at least delay it.
It’s looking that way, isn’t it? I guess I underestimated just how wimpy gold really was compared to silver. SLV gained 66% more than GLD today (.68% vs .41%).
Im gonna guess no decrease in the rate.
I am guessing that they will keep things the same, but I just had that thought in my head.
Twitter slumps after hours – I never realised that it had recovered.
It never did recover and did a dead cat bounce. Buying this stock is like jumping into a burning building. It could head to $10.
The Canadian dollar is relentless. I cannot believe this run has lasted so long.
Apple down sharply too $98 in addition to twitter down about 10% but the market keeps on moving up after sharp drops in microsoft, ibm, intel and others.
I just bought some Apple at $96 and will add in the strong support area of 92 to 95.
NUGT gonna rip higher tomorrow when Jiant Fellon speaks. I am in at 63.48 through no commissions Robinhood.
What charts is Doc looking at when he is providing his commentary?
London closes and up goes silver….. Expect price containment, coming from the COMEX, CLOSE TO CLOSING TIME.