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What does Rick think of the bounce in gold and the general US economy?

May 31, 2016

Rick Ackerman kicks off today first with comments on the bounce we are seeing in gold after the spot price tested the $1,200 level. We then move to the the US markets and the data points on consumer sentiment and spending. Rick is not buying into any of the more positive numbers but he does have higher targets for the markets.

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Discussion
56 Comments
    May 31, 2016 31:57 AM

    You say what????$1991.50 for June Gold??? What the crap are you guys talking about??

    b
    May 31, 2016 31:06 AM

    1991.50 target? I dont know anything about furures but that sounds like Rick figures gold is heading up.
    And geez, thats higher than “the” high no?
    Be nice if we could speak in actual gold prices.(spot maybe?)
    Can anyone explain what Rick figures gold is going to here?

    Thx, lifes tuff for an a.d.d aflicted uneducated dyslexic.

    May 31, 2016 31:19 AM

    Rick’s short term target in the June contract is $1191.50 not $1991.50……. unless the c coordinate ($1234.6) is broken.

    Using the August contract, now the front month…..the target price is $1193.70

      b
      May 31, 2016 31:52 PM

      thx mj, make much more sense.

    May 31, 2016 31:29 AM

    Nice rally in Pound denominated gold prices. Just this spot chart says gold prices aren’t going to suffer an extended correction:

    http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=gbp&timePeriod=d&flag=gold&otherChart=no

    May 31, 2016 31:30 AM

    Let the Voter Fraud Begin in BREXIT – Ready , Set Rig It!

    British voters in the EU referendum are shown how to vote to reject BREXIT and stay in the EU by the government. The Telegraph has at least shown that the Postal Voting system provides the example showing REMAIN in the EU. That is of course the first box to check. The government will count on these mail-ins as they did in Austria to ensure they can rig the vote claiming they have the balance in these types of votes just in case they lose at the polls.

    The problem that will erupt is if they rig the vote to remain in the EU and try to shut down the people, what will they do when the people find out they have been completely screwed by Brussels? Will this set the stage for serious civil unrest in Britain?

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/let-the-voter-fraud-begin-in-brexit-ready-set-rig-it/

    May 31, 2016 31:31 AM

    Rick is great. I love his healthy skepticism and unswerving distrust of government. Such sentiments used to be quite common among the general population, but when people reject the God of the bible, they will believe anything, especially the junk oozing from banker-bought talking heads, gubmint goons, university professors, and clownish billionaires.

      May 31, 2016 31:46 AM

      What? Like religious indoctrination is not the biggest propaganda machine out there? It wasn’t that long ago that Church and State were pretty much one and the same. They even taxed at 10% (actually they still do but less formally). Seems to me it took centuries to kick that band of nutcases off the power podium and elect popular governments that did not rule by the good book. Lord help us if the old system ever comes back. It was magnificently ignorant no matter what brand it came under. Just look how the Muslim world suffers under its own franchise……as if Christianity was any better when it held center stage across Europe during the Dark Ages.

        May 31, 2016 31:51 AM

        ++1

        b
        May 31, 2016 31:39 AM

        Obviously agree 100% Bird.
        I really like George Carlins thinking where religion is concerned.

          May 31, 2016 31:10 PM

          Ditto to that b.

            b
            May 31, 2016 31:23 PM

            Cant tell ya how much I admire,respect
            Jesus work and actually envey his knowledge. Geez it would be neat to do the things he could do.
            But, as I see it he was a master.

            The religions? Lots of good people involved, but…..
            Some day we’ll figure it out.
            We got a ways to go tho. lol. Keep the sense of humor.

        May 31, 2016 31:02 PM

        Bird, please tell us how you got here. Yes, yes, we already know. Your mother gave birth to you. But where did SHE come from? How do you get from dead protons to thinking, moralizing man? You are an effect. What is your cause? Please don’t just repeat what you heard from your liberal college professors. Come on, pagan worshiper/preacher, give us another sermon and teach us how we can make America great again without Christ.

          May 31, 2016 31:12 PM

          Sorry Wayne. I just don’t buy it. Religion isn’t my cup of tea and that includes all of them. Anything manufactured by men is open to be challenged and all religions are manufactured with the purpose of control. Fine with me if you enjoy living under the dictates of the Church but I am not interested in being part of that mob with their slavering inconsistencies, endless hypocrisy and obvious interest in managing the affairs of everybody else.

          How about you just mind your own business and keep Jesus to yourself.

            May 31, 2016 31:14 PM

            Homo religiosus! That is you, Bird. You are religious. That is your nature. AND . . . you can’t change your nature, just like you can’t change your sex or gender. Who manufactured your argument? You, you man you. 🙂 BTW, how have you challenged the Christian religion? Give us a doctrine and dissect it for us. What tools will you use? Science? Religion? Come on, you’re the 1%, one of the enlightened ones. O shed your light on us poor helpless slaves.

            May 31, 2016 31:52 PM

            The bottom line is if you took the profit and money capabilities and tax write-offs out of all the so called religions globally today………….tomorrow morning they all would cease to exist. Modern religion is nothing more than a fast food franchise of indoctrination behind a facade.

            All of the man made religions are for nothing more than indoctrination and to generate profits of unbelievable wealth to a franchise system.

            The creator and true spirituality have nothing to do with today’s creepy and distorted and manufactured gov sanctioned religions of today.

            All modern day religions are simply herding systems for profit to channel money away from the gullible and sheep-like to the system franchise.

            May 31, 2016 31:42 PM

            Of course you are correct Vortex. Tax free status was essentially a payoff to make religious groups and their leadership complicit and cooperative with other forms of organized governance. Because religions were effectively in competition with Monarchs there had to be ways to keep them in check and the best method was usually to give them some sort of economic privilege. Something that could be taken away if their cooperation ended. And of course Kings have indeed done that in the past by robbing the Church in order to balance the ledgers or raise money to conduct wars. The last thing a religion group wants to be is a big fat economic target at a time when the government in power is basically bankrupt. They become a natural target of the state. Its why Modi and his elected band are so intent on getting their hands of the temple gold in India by offering interest on whatever kilo’s are turned over to the State banks. I think they will have to improve the offer though since hardly anyone is coming forward at the prices offered.

    May 31, 2016 31:55 AM

    Yea I hear what you are saying.

    Stealing, killing, aborting, jealousy, disrespecting elders, those values of the Christians really do cause societal problems.

    It is a good thing our society ignores those concepts. Mankind is much better off without any laws that those crazy Christians have somehow or other imposed on our society.

      May 31, 2016 31:02 AM

      After all, who the he11 do we think we are imposing our views on others.

      May 31, 2016 31:11 AM

      Dave, People don;t need a preacher to tell them how to live. But Christ was a true light for a dark world. To bad his message was co=opted by the jews,

        May 31, 2016 31:01 PM

        OFFS

      May 31, 2016 31:13 AM

      What a world it would be if people actually respected those value systems you mention. Of course that’s the problem isn’t it? What I was referring to of course was something else altogether and that is the politicization of morality. It does seem to be pretty subjective doesn’t it. How come abortion is not called murder? Where are all the good Christian women who seem to think rights to decisions over their body (lifestyle and personal freedom issues) supersede breaking commandments? But that’s just one hypocrisy and as we know, interpreting the biblical scriptures have done untold damage including leading whole nations into war against neighbors…..and there we are at the “Thou shalt not kill” intersection again. But I am quite sure that most good Christians can always find a rationalization for both abortion and murder dressed up as social conflict called war. Just like they have done all through history. So we might as well just drop the pretense and get on with the killing as a society since we are going to do it anyway whether we have a civil government or one led by the Church. Seems to me it makes no difference. Only one side claims they have God on their side and the other have what seems to be an equally potent force called the electorate revolving around women’s movements.

        May 31, 2016 31:16 AM

        of course you were referring to something different. That is the point.

        Do I have to spell it out for you directly, or can you read between the freagin lines.

        Christian society is better than all other societies because it respects the 10 commandments. The weak, the elder and other members of our society are protected for them.

        If you reject the basic concepts that were put into existence for our own benefit, that is the definition of insanity.

        I am done on this issue.

          May 31, 2016 31:49 AM

          The churches are empty Dave. What Christian society? Commandments are broken every single day by people who call themselves Christian. Its why I said not to bother with the pretense since its all BS anyway.

            May 31, 2016 31:07 PM

            Bird wants us to keep the commandments of Christ but doesn’t want to keep them for himself. Hypocrite! Oh, you do want to keep them? How is that working for you? Please tell us how you do it? Come on, give us some of your “Good News.” All I hear from you is bad news and braggadocio.

            May 31, 2016 31:20 PM

            Just because I am dismissive of Church doctrine and most religion does not mean I am not G-D fearing. It is a waste of your time to push your values on me Wayne. I cannot be converted.

          May 31, 2016 31:24 PM

          God said there will be a turning away from the faith and the churches will
          be in apostasy. We will have false Christians and teachers of Gods Word.

          It’s no surprise or secret to a true Christian believer who is living for Jesus.
          Who has the armor of God on and knows Gods Word.

          The one’s who are deceived, are those who are still living for this world and
          refuse the truth in His Word or just assume things that they don’t know because
          they don’t study The Word.

          Suggestion : You don’t want to end up in the hands of the living God and be
          judged. Remember, all the things of this world are temporary and eternity is
          forever. Just wait till this world goes into convulsions. Many or nearly everyone
          who critically saying negative things are going to wish they were never born.

          Note to The Children Of God. Enjoy the persecution because we know the truth
          and realize this world is a temporary place. Anyone else has been deceived and
          will be separated from God for eternity cast into outer darkness.

          Lastly, we need to pray for the lost and they come to know the truth. Pray God has
          mercy on all of us, because not one is good. We are living in the last days.

          Then again, only someone who is spiritually sound would know.

          May 31, 2016 31:17 PM

          Bird, I can’t convert you, so I’m not trying to. Only God through Jesus Christ can save you. Or have you kept all the commandments since you were a youth?

            b
            May 31, 2016 31:40 PM

            Just waisting time here.
            The comandments could be simply for control.
            Ever look into Liberty?

            May 31, 2016 31:30 PM

            Yup, pretty much a waste of time. As if people were all murderous heathens without a Middle Eastern based religion to hold on too. How the heck most of Asia has managed to survive until now without Jesus, Abraham and Mohammed is a very big mystery.

    May 31, 2016 31:14 AM

    So I guess Jesus Christ, who said to preach the good news to the world was incorrect?
    Omission is the answer. Let them figure it out themselves.

    b
    May 31, 2016 31:51 AM

    Christian? I prefer “the god of Abraham” that I think puts the Moslems Christians and Jews in the same boat.
    I also prefer “thou shalt not kill” as a statement of fact over comandment.

    These differances are why we have so many differant “god of abraham” religions and books to support them. They all got truth, and the rest are wrong.
    Good grief, its hard to just name all the differant christian religions from memory.

    The U.S. a wonderful christian nation……genocide, slavery, the bank, lol

    God was on our side during the first and second war no? thats what the Germans and Italians thought too.

    Any religion that actually believed what Jesus was talking about, well, they wouldnt be going off to war for any reason would they?

      May 31, 2016 31:23 PM

      Exactly. But what can you do? The Wayne’s of the world are brainwashed. Just like the gold bugs with their little hymn books and prayer beads. And nothing you can do to persuade them otherwise.

        May 31, 2016 31:29 PM

        Bird, have you ever lied? (Yes.) What does that make you? (A liar.) Do liars go to heaven? (No.) What must I do to be saved from God’s just and holy wrath? (Repent and believe the Good News.)

        BTW, Bird, I love your comment above. Really. You said, “The churches are empty, Dave. What Christian society?” Yes, spot on! Excellent observation! So, I guess you can’t blame the Christian religion for the mess we are in since nobody is following it. THAT IS THE PROBLEM! America was founded by Christians and God blessed them with wealth but the love of riches has drawn them away and now the collapse, not just financial but social, is accelerating. We now live in a totalitarian society ruled by the point three percent who have decreed that full grown men with grizzled beards can piss with little girls. You need to repent. You are not a bird nor a beast but a man, the glory of God. While you live, there is hope.

          b
          May 31, 2016 31:48 PM

          lol Wayne, “god blessed them with wealth”
          That wealth was from the genocide Wayne. Those people were not exactly “blessed”.
          What the heck, they were heathen.
          If you look into it, the “founders” specifically stated religion had nothing to do with it.
          And as for hevean, only children get there, no?
          Maybe it depends on which christian religion a person chooses.

            May 31, 2016 31:35 PM

            Probably makes no difference which flavour of Christianity is chosen b. Its all propaganda and rules designed for weak minds that are unable to live a moral life without someone else telling them how to do it. At any given time in history we are just inches away to a full reversion back to our primitive ways. I don’t think we are any better than just sophisticated animals. There are no G-Ds among men, just fabrications of our minds.

    b
    May 31, 2016 31:22 PM

    Bird, there is a utube,”the Theory of Everything” it really talks about how our brains work, which can tell you why they work the way they do.

    To really understand it takes more “brains” than I have, but geez I found it interesting.

    This “Madness of Crowds” Bob recomended, ya, Im reading it, but geez does it ever drone on. lol
    Bobs book is infinately superior if you ask me. Much better written.

      May 31, 2016 31:25 PM

      Thanks b.

    May 31, 2016 31:29 PM

    Forget religion, of course I’m in full agreement. But ‘Churchianity’ is an entirely different matter from how an individual might, if he/she so wishes choose to respond to Christ. Of course for those of us who’ve been on this site longer than bird we’ve done this one like a broken record, and you’ll see how Al (perhaps the most religious of us all per se) usually gives this whole topic a wide berth.
    For it’s the easiest thing in the world to blame religion for everything that has made our world so sick. But as any sane person knows even without religion we’ll never achieve utopia, given that ideologies whether based entirely on atheism will always elevate high priests of their own.

      b
      May 31, 2016 31:54 PM

      All true Anrdew, but a little discussion now and then shouldnt hurt.
      Ive always thought it would have been nice to have had opinions from other religions
      than christianity.

      When gold moves up again, then room for that discusion might be tuff to find.

      May 31, 2016 31:51 PM

      I agree Andrew. You seem to understand me perfectly.

    May 31, 2016 31:01 PM

    b My prayer daily is to grow in wisdom. I hope I have a small measure, but even Solomon went off the rails because he got too full of himself! It was Socrates who spoke of ‘only the wise being truly rich and so Lord increase to us our store of gold’.
    After all wisdom is more to be treasured than even the yellow metal! Best, A

      May 31, 2016 31:17 PM

      A. Andrew, I would choose discernment above wisdom in these uncertain times. Ever heard Paul Tothill, Adelaide, Au.? Gatewaychurch.org.au My mentor.

        Jun 01, 2016 01:07 AM

        Isn’t discernment a crucial part of wisdom Marty?

          Jun 01, 2016 01:03 AM

          A. Andrew, Many wise ones out there but few that comprehend the chronological, spiritual and political times we live in.

    Dan
    May 31, 2016 31:10 PM

    Bubble phase con man yapping again lol – biotech still a long way from December highs.

      May 31, 2016 31:54 PM

      I really like Biotech at this point Dan. Prices are very good on the ETF’s and have bottomed out. Actually we are getting breakouts in progress so this is a good time to buy in my books. Gary was right on that score so it was a great call and the upside is tremendous.

    May 31, 2016 31:01 PM

    I *really* like Rick clears all illusions about spending, that it’s from borrowing. He really sees things correctly.

    Jun 01, 2016 01:04 AM

    Did you know that Facebook is mow LISTENING to you while you use it and is recording your conversations plus all the background chatter? Well you do now and if you are still suing this piece of personally invasive technology you need to seriously consider getting it off your computer NOW.

    Totally unbelievable they would do this but it seems there are no privacy boundaries anymore. At this minimum you will need to disable your mic if you really must use that piece of social networking junk.

    Forget Big Brother, Facebook Is Watching (And Listening) To Everything You Do
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-31/forget-big-brother-facebook-watching-and-listening-everything-you-do

    Jun 01, 2016 01:30 AM

    Chris posted this link already. Mark Zuckerberg is a lowlife criminal.

      Jun 01, 2016 01:57 AM

      Just saw it. You really cannot be too careful anymore in protecting your personal privacy. We are living in a surveillance world and surrounded by walls of cameras and microphones. Nothing is private anymore.

    Jun 01, 2016 01:47 AM

    Absolutely.

    Jun 01, 2016 01:19 AM

    Take a look at the Euro on a monthly chart.

    You will notice immediately that it had been forming out a fairly reliable down sloping channel between the years of 2008 to the present. And based on that pattern one might have rightly assumed the next major move would be back up to the top of that falling channel.

    The suggestion was that the Euro would rise to maybe 1.30 before heading back down.

    But that’s off the table now and Brexit is probably why. For whatever reason, the market has already started to discount the value of the Euro and by default the whole European project which it made clear when that monthly reversal candle was posted a few days ago.

    We can now expect the Euro to decline significantly and that the channel that had formed is going to be violated by a potentially violent fall all the way back to the bottom at 2000 and 2001 levels.

    Note that there is very little support of significance between here and the year 2000.

    So when the 2016 uptrend in the Euro was effectively terminated on a technical basis on the monthly chart it also warned that the dollar will start to appreciate to levels that were not imagined just a month ago.

    Let’s follow the logic then. A rising dollar is oil negative so crude will now resume its declines. A rising dollar also means that the deflation pressures we have been living with for the past few years will continue.

    Commodities in turn will fall to lower levels and neither gold nor silver will be spared as they have moved in lockstep to the resource sector for decades. This is just what the correlations tell us and unless those correlations change we are heading for a world of hurt.

    Because this means in other words that the deflation threat has not been slain. It means that low oil prices are here to stay for much longer than many believe and that global growth will be hobbled as disinflationary forces accelerate.

    I suspect the European project will now fail. The Euro seems to suggest (to me at least) that Britain will leave the project and that is the most probable reason the currency itself could face a collapse that a trend reversal on the charts is suggesting.

    And what would replace it?

    It should seem obvious to everyone who reads these threads that the ONLY country hosting a currency with enough debt to even come close to matching the US Dollar is the Yuan.

    We had best get them included on the roster of the worlds reserve currencies post-haste because the EU is probably going to come apart at the seams with most countries eventually reverting back to their old currencies.

    And what else were they supposed to do anyway? None of them is in a position to independently manage monetary policy and devalue as needed to bring balance back to their extremely over indebted nations.

    If anyone out there can tell me how Europe will survive without Britain and carry forward with a single currency union then please step forward and explain the mechanics. I think the project is dead this month.

    As such, gold is also set for a stupendous drop.

      Jun 01, 2016 01:27 AM

      Just look at the Euro monthly….Does that chart look like it is about to rise up to its channel or drop back to the old lows posted 15 years ago? I think the Brexit vote is going to tell us one way or another and we are going to find out fast. The Euro is now at risk of a sudden plunge if voting goes the wrong way and it is because there would be little confidence the project would survive long without one of its key players.

      Euro on the monthly chart — Finviz.com (a very ominous setup is now in play)
      http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=m1

      Jun 01, 2016 01:30 AM

      PS: Be very careful how you play this come June 23rd. I suspect the market may have a bad reaction depending on the results and you would not want to get caught in the crossfire.

    b
    Jun 01, 2016 01:41 AM

    Good post Bird.
    You dont mention the sdr.
    There is also the possibility of a “rigged” brexit vote, should they stay, we could expect a rise in the euro I would think. Goes without saying I guess.