No matter what Yellen says the Fed cares about the markets
For today’s market wrap Cory chats with Chris Temple and Doc. We address Yellen’s speech earlier today in the context of what the Fed is most concerned with. We also talk about the rise in the US markets today. The S&P is back above 2,100 and closed at a high for 2016. How close are we to investors who are sitting on the sidelines with money ready to go rush to get in and cause a further move up?
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Saw the following and since it somewhat represents my position in these markets, thought others might enjoy reading Nick’s thoughts:
I think a lot of people took profits on the last highs & will be kicking themselves if gold moves up strongly from here.
Think about this – gold put it’s lows in last December. We have just had the first top put in with the new bull market. We are now getting the retracement that most would consider to buy with both hands – but they expected gold to move lower.
Many longs took their profits & the shorts were riding it down. Then we got this reversal on Friday – if that was the bottom last week & gold moves up from here then that means all the longs who were out of the market have short footed themselves.
If gold moves up from here then last week was the bottom that you buy with both hands. And most people who want to be long for the next rally are not in.
It’s this sort of action that creates a short squeeze.
A lot of shorts will be feeling the pressure – do they buy back their positions or stay hoping for lower prices. A lot of gold stock traders are regretting getting out.
The intriguing aspect is it now appears gold stock indices are going to hit new highs. Will gold hit new highs & if so then how far will it run.
The FEDs next meeting is on the 23rd – it’s now expected that they won’t put rates up. If so then the loose credibility as well as admit the US Markets are too weak. In this case gold will probably soar.
So we now have the set up that in the next two weeks that all the longs & shorts will be pondering. And if gold moves up then they will be most edgy.
A short squeeze can be explosive & here we have the stage set for it to unfold.
Today is not a good day to re-enter but perhaps later in this week will be opportune.
I think that now is the time to be long & holding….
SD, Feds meet next week the 16th, BREXIT vote on the 23rd👍
Keith Weiner Calls Out First Majestic CEO, Says Silver Demand Is “Weak”, Supply Is “Robust”
Posted on June 6, 2016 by The Doc 34 Comments 3,683 views
keith_weinerIf the silver speculators let go and the market price snaps to its fundamental, it will rapidly drop about $2.70. If it overshoots by the same magnitude to the downside, we may get to enjoy $11 silver. At least, it will be enjoyed by those who haven’t lost too many dollars betting on silver.
Perhaps that mobile phone manufacturer, driven by falling volumes and compressing profit margins, is pressured to approach silver mining companies (and all other suppliers) to see if they can cut their costs. Perhaps they were not bidding up scarce silver at the source, but putting in a low-ball bid below market. We don’t have that information, but one thing’s for sure:
Silver demand is weak while silver supply is robust.
Articles at SilverDoc, thought it was neat,.. the other day people were suggesting silver to the moon because of this mining company being contacted by a manufacturer for silver supply.
He makes a good point, maybe the conversation was to supply silver below what they pay now.
Thanks b. I would listen to Keith Weiner over First Majestic any day. The silver shortage theme that has ongoing for the past years is pure bunk and propaganda. And on that score supply will likely increase in the coming years anyway as we finally enter the deflation period that is still our fate. With the Chinese economy continuing to slow and organic new demand around the world still languishing in the dumpster it baffles the mind where the analysts think all the new demand will come from to sop up the existing supply. I am still predicting silver will fall below 10 dollars before we hit bottom. That’s a long way down from where we sit now. The next year is going to be harrowing for precious metals investors as resource demand remains weak and thus depresses all commodities including gold and silver.
I will keep track. Your comment about Hillary at this point, pishe’s me off! Read more about the alogations. Too many by credible people to disregard.
Some credible people also believe gold is in a new bull market and they are wrong too.
Liquidity crisis that is sure to come is game changer.
Oil to gold ratio historic highs. Prices are plunging
for many goods and services.
Whats being touted is hype from the gold community
who only has all their hopes and dreams resting on future
price appreciation with gold investments.
Of coarse its not 100% guaranteed but a bull market is
suppose to climb a wall of worry. Not everyone saying
we are in a new bull market.
This is gold being discussed not the DJIA. Gold can stay
in a sideways trading range for years, if not decades.
Especially these highly risky volatile assets. !!!!
I think the Fed *is* being clear – they are data dependent. And I think they watch the bond market more than the stock market. Neither here nor there, but just had to say.
And regarding the $USD, it looks strong to me. Monthly is overbought and on a sell sig for sure, but the weekly shows it’s just going sideways. As long as 92 or so holds, I think we may go higher. I don’t predict, am just saying the weekly chart’s MACD is < 0, and so I expect an intermediate term rally ahead. And fundamentally, if the UK exits the EU, that would make the euro's value go down and the dollar go up, I think.
On the job numbers, what I’m wondering is, if the Fed is not showing the true numbers as Shadowstats and goldbugs all say, then why did they let the 39K number paint on Friday? Why not paint something like 150K and then adjust later? This makes me think that the numbers are correct, and that no one is lying.
Except the unemployment number – but that’s not really lying – I think that number is correct, it’s just that we have a massive number of underemployed folks, and unemployed folks who are no longer counted because they’ve been out of work so long – so we’re north of 20% I think.
I think the Fed numbers are correct. But I disagree w/how they choose to set them – they should be comprehensive, and not cherry-picking, or else it’s not realistic.
Another example of Fed cherry picking is inflation, leaving out energy and (something else, I forgot). The Fed is painting correct numbers, but the numbers are not comprehensive. But they tell us so, so no surprise.
I think the Fed is sincere in trying to raise the int rates, for a) bank health, and b) pension funds. This is why I think they are focused on the bond market, which is XXX bigger than the stock market, for the bank health, and for pension funds for the retirees.
(sorry to babble on here …)
IF the Fed was focused primarily on the stock market, then the easy/sure solution is QE. It worked before, so they have this covered.
Their primary focus is on the economy – helping banks by raising int rates.
Problem is, will consumers borrow any more? Nope.
What we need is a NEW thing to get us growing. Innovation. Green energy. Healthcare solutions that don’t impact morality. Seems like everyone I know has a new knee or hip, or is dying of breast or other cancers. And we need to figure out how to co-exist on this planet with 7 billion people, so that we all have enough food, clothing, shelter, education, and so on.
OK, I’m done. 😉
BBC saying Hillary is now got enough votes to be democratic nominee…oh dear
I heard that about three hours Nigel. Remember that she does still need to win.
Trump will bitch slap Hitlery
The gold bugs are wrong. Hillary will be President because she is the best candidate available for the job whether you guys dislike her or not. She has made mistakes and taken a lot of hard knocks. I think she has learned her lessons well. All the rest is just noise
I could not disagree more!
No problem Al. None of us will ever see eye to eye when politics is part of the conversation.
+1
I love how that fraud Armstrong dismisses the jobs report as meaningless because of technology shifts and robotics. How we’re going to DOW 30K and everyone is going to miss out except him, blah blah blah. Corporate profits have been declined for several quarters now. Bond yields are still screaming deflation. Fact.
AXU (and many others) are in a powerful young uptrend even when priced in GDXJ…
AXU looks very strong here…
Just because a PM stock has gone up 400%, does not mean it cannot go up more.
I have held onto my Alexco shares (not sold 1 share) since I bought @ $US 0.27.
Matthew: You posted a blue-sky scenario for Alexco @ $US 50.00 silver several weeks ago. It was astonishing, even with the 25% SLW streaming $US 4.00. Let’s let the curmudgeons find it and refute it.
I agree. When the bull market is nearing its end, we’ll hardly be able to see the first 400% on the chart.
I just saw this thread, but agree that when the bull is in full tilt, we’ll hardly be able to see these 2-5 times moves on many of the PM mining stocks as they’ll compound and compound. When AXU announces going back into production it should have a nice pop.
Car market is very soft and prices are plunging.
I could not believe my eyes at the auto mall today.
1995 prices. They are back down to those same levels.
This is for a much better new car too. 21 years later.
Hmmm. Used car market is flooded. Heavy discounts
in all directions.
Food prices are coming down because people are
struggling and being ripped off for high rent. Eating
less I assume.
Once the liquidation of debt arrives and most likely
in the months ahead deflation will punch everyone’s
lights out. Upside down housing buried in debt and
the same in the car market.
MOSTLY EVERYONE IS BURIED PAST THEIR EYEBALLS.
( Or soon to be when all the bids are lowered )
The only thing keeping gold alive is another QE and all
that hype with China cornering the gold space.
If there is no follow through gold prices will perform in
a side ways trading range. Or better yet, collapse.
Who needs gold when purchasing power increases.
Who wants to deal with it. It’s all hype and inconvenience.
DUMB !!!!!! Didn’t mean you, unless your buying gold.
Ha! I was wondering who was on the other side of my trade. 😉
Well, you and Harry Dent could be right. Welll see. It’s here where I think Al’s idea of having *some* gold bullion as insurance is a good idea.
Thanks Bill as I truly believe it is a good idea.
The coming deflation juggernaut cannot be stopped.
Only by liquidation of debt and unwinding of leverage
in the system.
And yes, Uncle Harry could very likely be right.
Credit card debt is off the page too.
The harvest is ripe for a crisis. Everyone
is going to have major problems one way
or another. Families are already breaking
up and the divorce attorneys are taking
advantage of it.
Or call 800 file bk
Go right into receivership. I quit !!!
For KWN fans. When all you have is hope.
http://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-we-just-witnessed-a-huge-wakeup-call-for-the-world/
Eric never S.U. !!!
If you like KWN – sit down and grab your popcorn.
I’m posting this for further confirmation of high
prices in the furure price of gold.
I better get bullish on gold. Buy everything in sight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c
At the 28 minute mark on the video. The gold rush is here
Jeff Nielson for realistic sound analysis.
There are risks and don’t get mislead
by the hype. You don’t have to lose
money. Many will and do !!! —$
And the future is defined as when?
Everybody is an overnight expert! (He who markets best is considered the greatest authority!)
Please do no join me in the super pessimistic club. (Or should I say the super realistic club?)
Okay, I see nothing but blue skies ahead.
Actually, it is summer and good time to
enjoy life. I love this time of year.
The TSX-V hasn’t looked this good in many years…
I find it completely comical that folks are looking for new highs in the US equity markets. Junk bonds are close to getting crushed, the long VIX instruments are just a week or two from being a major buy. The plunge protection team is on the ropes!
Emerging markets and commodities are the real deal at this time. Gold and commodities have decoupled. Gold is no longer a commodity, and it will go south for a while. The commodity sector is starting a boom.
Decoupling is a myth. Certainly on the long term charts.
Copper looks pretty good to me…
Another look…
and another…
Weekly…
Why is it down 3 %.
Thats a big move down too.
Long recommendations are
now in big loss.
Avino Declares Commercial Production at its Second Mine on the Avino Property in Mexico
VANCOUVER, June 6, 2016
Here’s a recent VIDEO presentation from David on Avino’s progress. Worth the watch!
______________________________________________________________________________
MIF May 2016: Avino Gold & Silver Corp. – David Wolfin
Published on Jun 3, 2016
David Wolfin, President & CEO of Avino Gold & Silver Corp., gives a presentation at the May 2016 Metals Investor Forum.
As you know, EX, I really like Avino. It was your work here on KER that got me interested.
One-of-a-kind management, great resources, consistently improving production
I remain extremely impressed with ASM.
They deliver on guidance and what they say they are going to do (rare in mining).
Now they have their 2nd mine in production in Mexico with extremely low AISC under $10 a Silver Equivalent ounce. They have the Bralorne Gold Mine up next to bat in BC, Canada, as well as the old tailings resource they intend to mine over 5 years. Their production will double by 2018 right as metals prices start rising.
They also have a ton of exploration upside around all their projects, and another exploration project, The Eagle Property, up in the Yukon. I pretty excited to see how things progress at Bralorne though, because that was a very famous mining complex and they are going to mine in between the prior 3 producing mines. There could be some bonanza grades sandwiched in there, and it may be a game changer.
They are also a family business with a long-standing good track record with their team, the local communities, and David Wolfin is doing a great job at the helm.
Lastly, their supply agreement with Samsung says volumes! Do you think Samsung vetted them and numerous other projects intensely before making that agreement? (you bet they did, and Avino got the deal and passed with flying colors).
I don’t think the market has come anywhere close to valuing this company correctly, and the Avino ore translates over to revenue now that they have declared commercial production yesterday, they’ll likely get re-rated by the marketplace to the upside.
Ever upward!
Stagflation, here we come…
The daily chart also looks great…
Birdman said,
“Hillary will be President because she is the best candidate available for the job whether you guys dislike her or not. She has made mistakes and taken a lot of hard knocks. I think she has learned her lessons well. All the rest is just noise”
Birdman needs a life away from bootlick crooks
We can agree to disagree. Why do you care so much anyway?
Getting back to the economy for a moment (since politics makes more enemies than friends at even the best of times)……..I came across an alarming chart on Michael Snyders blog today.
This one is a FRED chart of temporary help services in the US and it covers the period of year 2000 to present so its more than just a snap shot. We are using it as a recession indicator in this case so keep that in mind. Have a look at the link below.
What you are seeing is a classic megaphone pattern that is fully developed and ready to plunge.
And the next move is down which should take the Temporary Help Services employment number well below the 2009 low point of 1.7 million workers if this chart behaves like any good megaphone. That may not sound like a lot of people at first blush but forget the absolute numbers in this case. What that chart tells us is that a fairly severe economic downturn is coming or has already arrived.
Now Michael has interpreted that to mean that gold and silver will be especially sought after and he used the Soros gold purchases as his proof that a US recession would be gold-positive. Michael could not be more wrong though because a serious slowdown in the US posting negative GDP growth implies a reduction in demand of all sorts whether that be oil, coal, copper or gold and silver.
Commodities are still linked and generally travel in the same direction. On a fundamental basis (supply and demand) it means that recession should warn of prices deflating even further than they have already. Consider crude oil back at 26 dollars as one example.
Since the US is the only major economy still functioning on all cylinders, a recession there will only amplify the sluggishness in the rest of the world and lead to reduced imports and thus reduced global aggregate demand.
It may even be enough to finally push China over the edge so careful what you wish for folks. But what this set up will not do is lead to explosive demand for commodities and therefore precious metals will continue to decline over the next few years.
Judging by the chart this could be a long period of slowdown as well that takes us all the way into 2020 so get prepared because some of you might be getting pink slips as this thing wears on.
Something Big That Always Happens Right Before The Official Start Of A Recession Has Just Happened
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/something-big-that-always-happens-right-before-the-official-start-of-a-recession-has-just-happened
Looking at the action today, I get the feeling that a lot of people are taking the pop in the miners as another chance to sell near the recent “top.” That’s likely to be a mistake, in my opinion.
Wouldn’t you think that gap will get filled though before the next move up?
Usually, yes, but under the current circumstances, I wouldn’t bet on it. A lot of money wants to come into the space, so if the metals remain strong, I don’t see how a gap-filling drop is likely to happen.
It is also possible that at least part of the huge gap was “painted” by big money in an effort to “shake the tree” for shares. When you consider the action (gains!) of the last few months and the fact that we are heading into the summer, I’m sure that the tree-shaking has been very successful.
I am still all-in.
Thanks for the response back, and good point about big money shaking the tree.
I was calculating another brief pullback to fill that gap before the lunge up and still thought we’d see a bit more seasonal weakness in June for Gold; especially with the general stock markets surging to new 2016 highs and possibly setting up to test the all time highs.
G.S. had an interesting video on his site yesterday, where his thesis was Gold would pull back below the trend line (originating off the bottom in Dec 2015) before it finally bottomed for the intermediate cycle. We’re not allowed to post links to his site, but if you watch the video titled “Gold: Approaching Major Resistance Zones” about 4 minutes in you’ll see his thoughts. It seems like a reasonable projection to me….. [that is…..unless gold is already lifting off for the 2nd run in 2016].
Thanks. His view certainly doesn’t seem unreasonable but I think the low is already in place. It is typical bull market action to reverse before most people expect it.
Good point. It is interesting that the 500 day EMA has held so far, after Gold finally broke above it.
If I remember correctly, one of the stipulations on G.S.’s cycle theory is that the trend line must be broken in the right timing band to signal an intermediate top or bottom, so that was the point he was making.
We’ll see how it goes. I’m fine either way. If Gold goes lower I’ll add to positions, and if it signals it is breaking out again, I’ll add. (heck I added the last 2 weeks to a few stocks on pullbacks anyway 🙂 )
Unbelievable…how long have I already been saying that gold would fall back and eventually break below the lows of December. Now Gary is saying that too? Looks like my little boat is filling up with converts one by one.
Lol, that is not what Gary is saying. I don’t have to watch the video to know that! Funny stuff.
For clarity, G.S. was saying that Gold would simply dip below the trend-line and signal the intermediate low had been reached (likely in June), but, for clarity, he never said Gold was breaking anywhere close to new lows. G.S. believes the lows in December are the major lows and end of the Bear.
You were clear the first time, Ex. Bird just doesn’t know what a trendline is. 🙂
Great show!