Commentary from both Chris and Doc – Fri 8 Jul, 2016

Morning Market Commentary with Chris and Doc

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As if it could not get any stronger, experts predicting even higher housing prices this summer.

  1. On July 8, 2016 at 9:24 am,
    CFS says:

    Welcome beck Big Guy, everyone needs a good break once in a while.
    Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
    19.8780 19.0060 19.7910 20.5760

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:13 am,
      Al korelin says:

      Thank you, Professor!

      And yes, everyone does!

      • On July 8, 2016 at 1:39 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Welcome back to the mix Big Al. Hope you had some time to recharge.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:22 am,
      irishtony says:

      Welcome back BIG fella, how is your health ? & the Little Blond Lady.

  2. On July 8, 2016 at 9:30 am,
    CFS says:
  3. On July 8, 2016 at 9:34 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I would not move to Seattle even if houses cost 10% of going rates. I’d be surrounded by Obama worshiping idiots. I’ll stay in Texas, which Davy Crockett thought was the nearest thing to heaven he’d ever seen, at least for a few weeks until the Mexicans murdered him.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 9:48 am,
      CFS says:

      If we have Texit; then I might think about moving.

      • On July 8, 2016 at 11:31 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        Last time we had a Texit 2 of my grandmother’s uncles were murdered by Yankee invaders at Vicksburg, and 2 others were shot at Gettysburg and Malvern Hill.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:15 am,
      Al korelin says:

      It is a liberal and dangerous city! My personal experience.

      • On July 8, 2016 at 12:12 pm,
        Dai Uy says:


        The same thing is starting to happen in the real estate market over here on the east side of the Cascade Curtain. My ex recently listed her modest 4 bedroom home and immediately had 7 offers above the asking price.

        At my age however (I don’t even buy green bananas any more) I’ll probably remain a renter and forego potential profits in real estate as one can always buy but not always sell. I view home ownership somewhat akin to involuntary servitude and since I’m basically shiftless and lazy, I’ll continue to rent.

        BTW: Any news on the Whidbey real estate market and whether it has also been going up?

        I continue to enjoy your program and guests

        • On July 8, 2016 at 1:00 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Kathy and her brothers sold the family place on Mutiny Bay. The ended up splitting about $960K and it was a fixer upper.

        • On July 8, 2016 at 1:27 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Chances are if you never bought in already there is not much time left to enjoy any more upside Dai. I am guessing there is just a few years left before the reversal begins and when it does the long price slide down will be fairly relentless.

          Just look at the numbers of retirements and the demographic profile to assure yourself that its a gamble to make long bets on housing for the future (almost all real estate is a long term investment). When you hear stories about how people are cashing out with enormous profits its hard to not imagine one could still catch a little of that updraft.

          But I wouldn’t do it anymore. There is no generation behind the Boomers large enough to soak up the excess supply that is coming and I think the speculators today in their late 40’s and 50’s are in for a whole lot of disappointment when their own retirement dream fizzles in a bust of excess listings and falling prices.

          The numbers just don’t lie on this topic. So while some people today are enjoying fabulous gains I can’t help but think they are selling at the top. Its the poor saps who are picking up these properties now who will pay dearly a decade (or even less) down the road.

          Shit, the system is so close to having the wheels come off already that we can almost smell an ugly deflation bust in the air. Its why guys like Armstrong are warning that most people will end up losing everything. Bonds, stocks and real estate will tank together much as they did the last time the credit cycle ended.

          I pity the buyers who don’t have the common sense to stay liquid and be heavy cash rather than long houses and deeply in debt. If the future at all resembles the past then most of those guys will end up unable to service the obligations once the day of reckoning arrives.

          We will be counting the sob stories in the millions.

          • On July 8, 2016 at 2:43 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Bird, suckers galore in the housing market besides you couldn’t tell them anyway, they will need to feel the pain for their stupidity. This whole vicious circle is all about greed, the real estate agents, the governments and the bankers are in on the fix and the poor homeowner is too dumb to know what will hit him. When the hammer drops they will all be pointing at the others, get the crying towel out! DT

          • On July 8, 2016 at 2:55 pm,
            irishtony says:

            Bird….You just hit the nail on the head….Well said Sir.

          • On July 8, 2016 at 3:06 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I would have to agree…with all three gentleman’s comments.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 3:26 pm,
      Vortex says:

      My dad still lives in Texas so I do have roots there.

      If I ever were to return to the US, which is highly unlikely, but if I ever did it would hopefully be after Texas, and numerous other states have voted to leave the Union and actually do, it would likely be Texas I had to pick one.

      There is no panacea even in a place like Texas, but the rot, festering socialistic fascist filth and complete degradation in all of the other states for the most part is beyond the pale of comprehension.

      I highly doubt America will resemble anything even remotely worth while that it once stood for after this next Presidential term, no matter who is elected. Hilldabeast will probably instigate multiple mushroom clouds happening across the North American land mass if she gets her way. Pure evil beyond all comprehension and category.

      At this point I’ve accepted that the decks of the Titanic must be cleared before sanity and clear thinking can be restored to the bankrupt satanic nation.

      I’ll continue to do my watching from Asia where life is very good and peaceful and pray for my dad as he has made his choice to remain.


      • On July 8, 2016 at 3:29 pm,
        Vortex says:

        My reply was to Bonzo in agreement about Texas way up there.


  4. On July 8, 2016 at 9:42 am,
    Bob UK says:

    Sure seems like chasing up to the highs again? Has anything changed? Is there the energy to push through and add a few hundred more points on the S&P?

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:16 am,
      Al korelin says:

      Has anything fundamentally changed? I don’T think so!

      • On July 8, 2016 at 11:19 am,
        CFS says:

        I wonder how much this is Central Bank buying.
        After all we have had significant movement OUT of stocks from mutual and hedge funds?

        • On July 8, 2016 at 1:00 pm,
          Bob UK says:

          I suspect a great deal.

      • On July 8, 2016 at 1:25 pm,
        Peter R. says:

        do you know what has fundamentally changed. People are realizing that low interest rates are here to stay. Previously people somewhat held back due to the concept that interest rates would eventually move up significantly and they would get caught. Everyone not realizes that will never happen because it would have to devastating of an impact. That is the fundamental change.

  5. On July 8, 2016 at 9:50 am,
    Ebolan says:

    The crew did a bang up job in Al’s absence, especially Chris Temple. And Mr. Big Al Korelin, I hope you don’t make any drastic changes in your life, except if they are good. of course.

    Regarding these job numbers, they are totally bogus. Will be revised downward in the months to come.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 9:56 am,
      Ebolan says:

      How can you believe anything this lying, criminal gooberment says? Especially after the Comey chameleon Shillary episode? Anyway, here’s a little more clarity on those job numbers:

    • On July 8, 2016 at 10:09 am,
      Paul L says:

      Not that bogus. They are accurate to within plus or minus 50% to 80%.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:17 am,
      Al korelin says:

      Listen to our special editorial this afternoon, Eddie!

  6. On July 8, 2016 at 10:10 am,
    Paul L says:

    Should at new highs Monday or Tuesday.

  7. On July 8, 2016 at 10:14 am,
    trader jake says:

    The clock is 2 minutes to midnight before we destruct.

    The crisis is so huge, the human mind is not capable
    of grasping of all the collateral damage ahead.

    Americans and The West citizens are not even aware
    of how dangerous things are becoming.


    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:18 am,
      Al korelin says:

      I agree Jake!

      • On July 8, 2016 at 11:33 am,
        trader jake says:

        Al, please cover this subject with especially Chris T. because war
        is about to break out. Russia is being surrounded not only in the
        Baltics/Eastern Europe but NATO is now taking up offensive military
        in Ukraine seeking to attack Russia.

        MSM is completely silent. I have contacts with individuals in Europe
        and war is the buzz word especially as NATO positions itself in Ukraine.

        Significant amounts of troops and military hardware are moving in. This
        is serious.

        • On July 8, 2016 at 1:36 pm,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          This is insane, Putin has thousands of nuclear armed missiles. Leave him alone!

          • On July 8, 2016 at 1:38 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            You don’t tug on Superman’s cape; you don’t spit into the wind; you don’t pull the mask of the old Lone Ranger; and you don’t mess around with Putin!

          • On July 8, 2016 at 2:01 pm,
            Temple says:

            Putin is being attacked, Bonzo, because he is the only “reigning” Christian head of state of any nation state in the world that refuses to bow to the NWO/international banking crowd.

        • On July 8, 2016 at 2:00 pm,
          Temple says:

          Jake — You might find this commentary interesting that I penned not long after the whole conflict started with Ukraine, and the saber-rattling for a new war against Christian Russia started:

          • On July 8, 2016 at 2:23 pm,
            trader jake says:

            Chris, precisely correct Russia is not capitulating his sovereignty
            over to the U.N. /NATO/NWO Elite Banking Syndicate.

            Why we are not making friends with a Christian Nation is abvious.
            We are the Nazi’s of the world. We are provoking our own destruction.

            Also, Ukraine most recently is experiencing large NATO build up in
            an offensive against Russia. They are literally being surrounded.

            I will read the the article you wrote and thanks for your no nonsense
            highly professional astute opinion/commentaries. This is the most
            important news in over a century completely being overlooked.

            The world is in the most risky place ever. The masses are blind.

            TOTALLY BLIND !!!

          • On July 8, 2016 at 5:44 pm,
            trader jake says:


            We are living in the grand deception time in history with regards to
            equities and most financial assets including everything from A to Z.

            I believe and my opinion only the whole system will cease within hours
            or days and destruction will come as a very wild surprise.


            Everyone will close up shop and all the cards you hold will be worthless.

            Unless the assets are food, water, necessities, weapons and fiz.

            Thanks to the mad men running the insane asylum. All paper will burn.

  8. On July 8, 2016 at 10:34 am,
    Paul L says:

    Barchart Morning Call
    July 8, 2016: Published by
    QUICK LINKS • Top News • US Futures Indices • European Futures Indices • Events Calendar
    Overnight Markets and News
    Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.26%) are up +0.23% and European stocks are up +1.10% on light short-covering ahead of U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls. A rally in Italian bank stocks is leading the overall European market higher with Banco Popolare SC up over 9% after it said its own stress tests showed “resilience” to adverse shocks and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA was up almost 5% after its CEO said it’s working “intensely” with authorities to quickly resolve its bad-loan burden. Italian authorities are trying to shore up its banks that have 360 billion of soured loans. European automakers are higher as well on signs of strong auto sales in China as Mercedes-Benz reported China Jan-Jun auto sales surged +32% y/y to 229,137 units. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.11%, Hong Kong -0.69%, China -0.95%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +0.05%, Singapore -0.53%, South Korea -0.48%, India -0.27%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 1-week low as a stronger yen undercut exporter stocks.
    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.20%) is down -0.22%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31%.
    Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.05%) are down -3 ticks.
    The German May trade balance fell to a surplus of +21.0 billion euros, smaller than expectations of +23.5 billion euros. May exports unexpectedly fell -1.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and the biggest decline in 9 months. May imports rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m.
    U.S. Stock Preview
    Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun non-farm payrolls (expected +180,000, May +38,000) and Jun unemployment rate (expected +0.1 to 4.8%, May -0.3 to 4.7%), (2) May consumer credit (expected +$16.000 billion, Apr +$13.416 billion), (3) G-20 trade ministers meeting in Shanghai, and (4) USDA weekly Export Sales.

  9. On July 8, 2016 at 10:51 am,
    Bob UK says:

    Miners seem to be continuing to chug higher… I might even use the word ‘soar’.

  10. On July 8, 2016 at 11:13 am,
    james says:

    His Holiness Pope ! AL Korelin is Back !!!

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:19 am,
      james says:

      Chris i Tell you’re All OIL is Totally Manipulate ! All markets sorry MAN !

    • On July 8, 2016 at 11:21 am,
      Al korelin says:

      Actua)y great to be back James. I ran across the biblical refrrence, by the way, to James the Greater and th ed various James the Lesser

  11. On July 8, 2016 at 12:05 pm,
    James The Lesser says:

    Al, you know the James above is another James.

    I am the only James the lesser, for greater or for lesser

    • On July 8, 2016 at 12:16 pm,
      james says:
      • On July 8, 2016 at 1:44 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        funny Franky.

    • On July 8, 2016 at 12:54 pm,
      Dai Uy says:

      I have a close friend who is a retired judge. He refers to himself as James the Just.

  12. On July 8, 2016 at 12:31 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    An indicator I like to watch is OBV and FWIW, the S&P fund levels are a Billion below the level when the S&P set it’s high in May, 2015. Can’t explain. Can anybody tell me how levels are where they are without those funds involved?

  13. On July 8, 2016 at 1:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Looks like the marketplace finally woke up to the arbitrage that had existed the last 2 weeks between Gryphon Minerals (GPHYF) and Terranga Gold (TGCDF). Nice!

    Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (GPHYF)
    0.1650 Up 0.0270(19.57%) 3:58PM EDT

    • On July 8, 2016 at 2:00 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      In case anyone missed the previous posts it is a takeover of Gryphon by Teranga.

      It wasn’t quite as an extreme of an arbitrage as the one with Calico and Paramount, but there was still an easy gain to made for anyone with a calculator.

      Good luck to all in their investing, and keep an eye on stocks during takeovers easy profits.

      • On July 8, 2016 at 2:49 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I’ve been watching the Hecla takeover of Mines Management and Dolly Varden like a hawk.

        The merger with Mines Management (MGN) is properly valued more or less with the exchange ration of .2218 x Hecla shares (HL).

        Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
        6.05 Up 0.39(6.89%) 4:02PM EDT

        Mines Management, Inc. (MGN)
        1.33 Up 0.11(9.02%) 4:00PM EDT

        (HL) 6.05 x .2218 = 1.34189 Current MGN at $1.33 on target (usually a slight discount).

        * I own a nice position in Dolly Varden and will make out nicely on their takeover, but I’m still trying to figure out what the official offer will be from Hecla. They announced a cash takeover, but haven’t officially presented it to Dolly Varden yet.
        My hope is that in light of the rising precious metals prices, that the ounces in the ground just went up in value and so might their offer amount. Dolly Varden has prime real estate around all the other action, so I could see it fetching a higher price.

        Here was the most recent press release about the takeover. Dolly Varden did also pay off it’s loan to Hecla right after this:

        Dolly Varden Forms Special Board Committee in Response to Hecla’s Proposed Unsolicited Takeover Bid

        • On July 11, 2016 at 9:10 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I stand corrected. Apparently Dolly Varden did respond to Hecla’s takeover, but it seems a bit messier than expected, where Hecla’s restrictive loan was trying to block Dolly Varden from issuing more shares to finance their exploration efforts. It is also interesting to note the land that Hecla bought on 3 sides surrounding the Dolly Varden land package. Clearly Hecla is going for a larger area play, but the takeover didn’t clue in DV investors to this point.

          * As a result of this new information and a concern that this merger may blow up; I’m taking my chips off the table, and cashing out with the winnings before the dilutive financing.

          Here is the press release dealing with the merger, the loan and the new financing Dolly Varden has planned.


          Dolly Varden Silver Responds To Hecla’s Formal Takeover Offer
          July 11, 2016 – Vancouver, BC

  14. On July 8, 2016 at 2:21 pm,
    Jason Weishaupt says:

    Terror attack = ralley Not enough bodies last night for the S&P to break out.

  15. On July 8, 2016 at 2:52 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Al, I hope you are looking after your feet, if you lose your ability to properly walk everything shuts down, don’t sit for long periods of time and get good shoes, this is a cheap investment but one that will pay you back in spades. DT

    • On July 8, 2016 at 3:04 pm,
      irishtony says:

      DT…I think the Big Fella will take your advice…He likes you.

      • On July 8, 2016 at 3:12 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        IT, he tolerates me but as far as liking me, I think that statement is a little bit cheeky, but I don’t mind. DT

      • On July 8, 2016 at 3:28 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        IT, he likes you because you know how to play kissy, just saying! DT

        • On July 8, 2016 at 3:31 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Dick Tracy – I wrote back to you at the bottom of Doc’s KER editorial yesterday regarding the PGM miners. I also included my PGM watchlist and links to a few older shows where we had a more in depth discussion on Platinum and Palladium.

          Comments at the bottom:

          • On July 8, 2016 at 3:45 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Excelsior, thanks for your input, I really enjoy reading your posts. I have some work to do in regards to your list. It takes time and I will look at some of those companies I am not that familiar with. Having said that I really appreciate your efforts in this regard. Deciding which plays to invest in takes time but I can assure you I will start this weekend. Thanks again, much appreciate your efforts. If I see something that stands out for me I will be sure to ask you for an opinion. Thanks DT!

          • On July 8, 2016 at 4:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            If you follow some of the links at the bottom of yesterdays Doc editorial, that go to the prior KER shows I had posted some good articles, corporate presentations, charts (that would need to be updated to year to date) and my own 2 cents.

            Skeeta, OOTB, Dan Paloyan, and DW Jones had some good thoughts on those threads as well.

            Best of luck and let me know if any float your boat. Names like Stillwater, Platinum Group Metals, Impala, Anglo American, Sibayne, Lonmin, and Aquarius are more household names in the PGM space. Eastern Platinum was a producer, but they tanked out due to the low metals prices and the labor issues in S. Africa, but may be the best turnaround story down there. Of those more common names, I am most animated by (PLG),and unpack the reasoning over several of those older threads.

            However as you point out there are not as many PGM Jrs., but I agree that Wellgreen is sitting on a whopper bonanza grade, as is Ivanhoe Mines on their development stage PGM property. Largo Resources is polymetallic with a PGM credit and PGM exploration properties, and I spend a lot of time describing why Polymet could be a winner and takeover candidate (like Duluth minerals PGM/base metals project was taken over by Antofagasta last year). Atlatsa is really making waves in the PGM junior space, and there is some buzz about Panoramic resources as well. I don’t know as much about Condoto Platinum or Sylania platinum, but need to do more homework myself. As for ZKB platinum, Western Areas, Novx21, Jubilee, and Northam Platinum, they get discussed on different sites but I’m still looking into those as well.

            Please keep me posted on anything else you may dig up regarding the PGM space.

          • On July 8, 2016 at 7:44 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Excelsior, I was invested in Duluth metals and they had a whopper on their hands but the stock didn’t draw attention from investors and like you pointed out Antofagasta got them for a song. Maybe most investors don’t like polymetallic plays but it was a shame to see them get taken out for pennies on the dollar. I think in situations like this management is often to blame. Too many people don’t know how to promote themselves or they lack the entrepreneurial expertise. DT

          • On July 8, 2016 at 8:15 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            EX, I was watching Wellgreen trade today, one of the signs I look for in a stock especially after reading a book on Jesse Livermore’s life. He had what most of us don’t have which is a cunning for playing the players in a given trade. This stock has support at 50 cents and resistance at 60 cents. It seems to me that it is now being accumulated by someone who places large blocks on the ask at support knowing that most buyers won’t let it fall much lower but it scares sellers into disposing this stock for half a dollar and the sharks move in. This is not investment advice and I stress this, it is just a tactic I use to compliment some of my other findings. Please do your own due diligence. DT

          • On July 9, 2016 at 1:24 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thanks EX

          • On July 9, 2016 at 2:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That’s a good point on Duluth when it was taken over by Antofagasta, as I made a little money, but was sad that it didn’t get more recognition by the marketplace and get rerated before the takeover. Yes, some companies that are crap-ola, are very good at marketing themselves, and some companies with great assets and value go unnoticed. That may be the issue with Polymet and Wellgreen at this time, and in the past the Geologist were doing the marketing (which is often part of the issue. Geologist get rocks, but not people or markets).

            As for Wellgreen, I very interesting observation about the large blocks. I’m in it for the longer term, but just in reviewing the history of the land, how the prices of commodities have changed over the last few decades, and then in the recent past, and what is projected to come……then I’m very bullish that this property will be picked up by a larger company that will put this into production to capitalize on the PGM increase & PM/Base Metal values.

            Good luck in your investing DT.

        • On July 8, 2016 at 3:39 pm,
          irishtony says:

          DT..I might be kissy-kissy , but you are honest, Al likes that…just saying! IT.

          • On July 8, 2016 at 3:44 pm,
            irishtony says:

            DT..I have been on this site a lot of years , & have learned to tell the difference between the good guys & the Arseholes….Just saying…….XXX

          • On July 8, 2016 at 3:54 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            IT, both you and Jerry are quite astute when it comes to character and situations, when you post I can feel your intent. I appreciate the humor you use to get your points across, you are a very interesting person and I mean that. DT

          • On July 8, 2016 at 4:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            DT..thanks for the compliment.,appreciate .J

          • On July 9, 2016 at 6:05 pm,
            trader jake says:

            No sweat buddy, don’t even think about it.