Are retail sales the only driver of the markets?
Today we chat with Doc about the concept of retails sales driving the markets. We have covered the fact that consumers are the driving force behind moving these markets higher but how sustainable is this? We then make a couple comments on the gold price which continues to slowly grind up. The dollar continues to be the most important market to watch for gold moving forward.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
That is a lot of anchor tenants,Simon Properties might or should get a hit.
Macy Christmas parade will be cutting back on hot air.
+1
Boomers retirees do not need ,,$300 flip flops ,shop till you drop is history. Mama got all the ,Gucci bag she needs.
Down sizing,means smaller closets,and no more room for overpriced merchandise junk from China.
I’ve even been hand-knitting my Precious Metals Depends, with earnings from Profit Dumpsters, to save where I can……
You’re gonna need a bigger dumpster
Its from all the Almond Joy and Mounds we discussed yesterday…..
Joy for Klondike, mounds of profits ,yesterday’s memory. All good.
Mr. Temple, Fireye looks like it might be coming out of its correction already!
My iPad didn’t like two e’s. FireEye. FEYE
GSV and OCANF just proved that regardless of what gold and the dollar do, a good drill hole can make a stock blast higher. And GSV’s chart did not predict its doubling in 2 days.
I agree Bonzo, nothing beats good drill holes in the long run or potential thereof.
Good analyst publicity can also boost price temporarily, of course.
Silver. Interesting $118 potential, but not likely soon.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/silveranalyst/silveranalyst081116.html
http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com
I don’t want to disagree with silverAnalyst, but I believe David Morgan thinks this time is different. I don’t know. My trailing stops will kick me out perhaps, and I will look for a bottom and turnaraound. If I don’t get kicked out, then I will enjoy the ride.
Thanks for that link, DFS. I agree with that guy, silver is due to plummet. Just look at the August 2008 chart. Silver got hit right before the conventional markets got rocked. And history does ryme…
That’s what makes life interesting. People have different opinions.
I don’t believe charts are good at predicting fundamental change, until after it happens.
Is this time different?
I really don’t know, but I’m kepping my options open. (And I’m not selling until I’m stopped out, as regards precious metal stocks. I will rotate between stocks if I have a reason)
I will sell regular stocks, if given a reason.
p.s. I have tried to get a discussion going on where to place trailing stops based on stock volatility, beta, but no one seemed to want to discuss it. I guess this blog is mostly for traders using charts.
I think Rick Ackerman is your man for options.
DFS – I strongly disagree. From price action to volume, the charts clearly do reflect and predict fundamental changes. For example, the quick, large, high volume moves in the miners back in January/February showed us that things had changed for the miners themselves as well as for the metals that they mine. Likewise, the massive, rising volume in 2014 and throughout 2015 was an early indication of the good times to come – and I pointed it out many times when it mattered, I might add.
Here’s one of the many relevant charts that I posted last year:
Btw, notice that the volume almost disappears above the current level. While many are selling in anticipation of an intermediate term top and correction here, I am rebalancing and remaining all-in for even more spectacular gains.
Thanks, Matthew, unknowingly, you prove my point. I was seeing change and moving in in December, taking full advantage of tax loss selling, which was lower volume than usual.
I could not “prove” the change by price action, and it did not show up in the charts until later, but the character of the market was changing.
There’s also a problem with using ETFs as a proxy, because of rotation and rebalancing.
They are better for giving smoother charts because of high volume, but they also hide stock information.
I think Chris Temple expressed that when he said the S&P index was up but there were more stocks down than up this year.
I wish I had learnt how to read charts, but I was buying and selling stocks back before charting was made so easy, and got stuck in my rut that seems to work, at least more than not work.
Silver ETF returning 280% says party not over in yield-less era Rally in silver prices could be sustained, Fresnillo says.
Luzi Ann Javier, Bloomberg | 11 August 2016
http://www.mineweb.com/news/silver/silver-etf-returning-280-says-party-not-over-in-yield-less-era/
Charter/DFS:
The very best thing that could happen is a hard correction and I see it coming as well.
This could be the “Black Swan” blamed for the drop in all markets including the Bond market, S&P and metals.
The Brexit Vote And Endgame Time For The EU
London closes and then US hammers the price down.
They don’t even hide it in the middle of the night anymore!
M-a-n-I-p-u-l-a-t-i-o-n.
Yep, we’ve been talking about (MAN) (MMNGF) Monster Mining Corp. over the last few days, as it is adjacent to Alexco. Well it’s up 100% today and I did my best to encourage people to look into it.
Cheers!
Monster Mining Corp. (MMNGF)
$0.4197 up +$0.2106 (+100.72% gain) As of 2:01 PM EDT
We’ve been discussing some good Royalty aggregation companies and Prospect generators on here most of them have done well without newsletter hype, because they are good value.
Here is a Year-To-Date composite Bar Chart of 10 Prospect Generator companies that have had a fair amount of discussion on here and still had a nice run so far this year (but remain less risky than an individual stock because they are diversified).
Companies included are: $KSK $EMX $SMD $GZZ $TEN $EPL $MRO $RZZ $CMJ $OSK
There are, of course, other great prospect generators not on that chart, but you can only fit 10 and these were one’s I was discussing elsewhere and had already made the chart and thought I’d post it. If I do another one, I’ll include Altius and Globex.
Cheers!
That is a nice list with some pretty spectacular gains.
With those kind of gains,it is pretty hard to pull the trigger.
How much longer are we going to have to wait for a correction so we can buy some more?
There are more attractive gains of course in the Silver, Gold, and Lithium sectors, but someone on a different discussion board was insinuating there was no money to be made in prospect generators, so I felt a year to date visual would help him out. ๐
As for how much longer until a meaningful correction, I have no idea but am planning for one in the fall. I’m still trying to Figure out if Gold is going to lunge for $1400 or if it is going to consolidate and then dip. Certain stocks have decoupled from just the metal prices, and are trading on news and fundamentals again, so that is refreshing to see.
Monster Mining Update (MAN) (MMNGF)…
Monster Mining Corp. (MMNGF)
$0.36 up +$0.15 (+70.54% gain)
As of 2:38 PM EDT. Market still open…
I trimmed some here in case things have become a bit over done…. ๐
Maybe it will correct back down tomorrow so I can buy some more back. If not, the rest of the position will just need to cruise on…..
Nice catch Shad.Monster has been flying under the radar.Looks like it just got spotted.
It was also number #1 on yahoo finance top % gainer. The volume is a little suspect for me.I haven’t found any news. Tomorrow should tell us more.
I could have just been the Monster stretching it’s legs…….
It’s positioned right next to Alexco’s mine on Keno Hill, on the same trend. (MAN) (MMNGF) has a 2nd property adjacent to ATAC resources. They’re just in the right neighborhood and investors are finally waking up to (AXU) (AXR) and possibly just realized who their neighbor is.
Shad,
Hope the week’s been good thus far.
Re: Monster Mining, if you know w. 100% CERTAINTY what…
1) is the amount of outstanding shares
2) the weighted average price of the warrants out there
…I’m game.
Personally.. I can’t figure out any of these.
PS: anyone who looked at it and has the answer w. 100% CERTAINTY – I insist on this – I’m also game.
Best to you & to all,
LPG
LPG,
I do not own or follow Monster Mining but several sources match the 3,181,751 post-consolidation number claimed in the following press release:
However, there has since been a private placement of 29,870,000 shares at a nickel along with a full warrant at ten cents.
So it looks like there are 33,051,751 shares out with 29,870,000 warrants and no options.
You can view the details about the warrants here:
Thanks Matthew that is a good point about the recent press release with the warrants to raise funds. My initial search on their website under “Share Structure” was this:
It was dated Wed Aug 3, 2016:
Current Issued and Outstanding: 31,817,519
Warrants: 0
Options: 0
Fully Diluted: 31,817,519
http://www.monsterminingcorp.com/s/ShareStructure.asp
* Clearly that doesn’t account for the 29,870,000 warrants.
I’d call it roughly 65,000,000 fully diluted then, but I guess that isn’t really 100% certain. ๐
Here are the stats from Yahoo Finance for Monster Mining (MAN.V):
Stock Price History
Beta 2.80
52-Week Change 3 200.00%
S&P500 52-Week Change 3 4.29%
52 Week High 3 0.54
52 Week Low 3 0.07
50-Day Moving Average 3 0.12
200-Day Moving Average 3 0.13
Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month) 3 15.5k
Avg Vol (10 day) 3 66.34k
Shares Outstanding 5 33.05M ********** [They have the outstanding shares at 33.05 which matches the number from their recent news release at 33,051,751 shares]
Float 2.91M
% Held by Insiders 1 0.84%
% Held by Institutions 1 97.80%
Shares Short 3 1.07M
Short Ratio 3 1.4
Short % of Float 3 1.90%
Shares Short (prior month) 3 989.57k
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAN.V/key-statistics?p=MAN.V
As I mentioned during the trading day, “I trimmed some here in case things have become a bit over doneโฆ. ๐”
If it pulls right back down, then I’ll likely buy that part of the position right back.
Alexco has been quite the buzz lately, so I think people are just coming to realize the Monster Mining land package adjacent the mine. The Keno Hill district seems very likely to be consolidated at one point. If nothing else (MAN.V) is on the exact same trend and should have the same insanely high grade ore.
In addition, their 2nd property adjacent to the ATAC Resources land, is their exploration target for Gold/Silver. Also very interesting proximity to another player.
Is Monster Mining speculative. Yep – I can barely take the name seriously….. ๐ฎ
In contrast, I take making a 70% return on that portion of the investment in one day very seriously. That doesn’t happen often so I’m all good with it.
However, I can’t ignore the fact that they are literally sitting next to an incredibly well endowed Precious Metals mine, and 65M shares is not too many shares considering the Bear market we’ve been in for 5 years…..especially when I see so many other companies that are at in the 200-500M range.
What is a monster?
So it sounds like all we have to do is marry off the Monster……
Sounds like M&A…..
You know, Monster & Alexco = Rich
Matthew,
Thanks for pointing out to the press release re: latest P.P.
Spent some time on the site yday… I totally missed that… duhhhhh…
The ONLY thing that I am personally unsure is the share count. That’s all.
It is 6mn something… or is it 6mn something ?
Decision to regroup/consolidate shares was in May indeed. So one “might” think that the current share price today reflects the regrouped share price.
However the latest P.P at the end of July suggests, imho, that shares were not regrouped/consolidated at that time. At the “current” Corp Pres dated August indicates c. 65mn shares fully diluted.
FWIW, my suspicion is that the shares have not been regrouped yet.
Reason why I focus on this is that in case of M&A/takeover, as Shad suspect will occur, the share count has its importance ( ๐ ).
Whether an acquirer would pay, for ex. today c.65mn shares x (say) 50cts = C$30mnish or 6.5mn x 50cts = C$3mnish makes a “little bit of a difference”, imho for an acquirer – esp. for a name such as Alexco (again, imho).
Not talking down Monster as I have no position. Just sharing thoughts from an investment perspective. From a trading standpoint, that’s a different discussion obviously – and nice one Shad on that one.
Thanks again Matthew, and best to you.
LPG
Good thoughts LPG. So I spent more time this morning checking into this share count, because as you mentioned, it would be important for whichever party would consider a takeover.
LPG as you mentioned in their May press release they discussed rolling back the 33M shares to 3 million shares.:
___________________________________________________________________________
May 24, 2016 – Vancouver, BC – Monster Mining Corp. (TSX-V: MAN; US OTC: MMNGF) announced that, further to its news release dated April 29, 2016, effective May 25, 2016 at market open, the Company will consolidate its common shares on the basis of one (1) post-consolidation common share for every ten (10) pre-consolidation common shares.
The Company will have a total of approximately 3,181,751 post-consolidation common shares issued and outstanding.
___________________________________________________________________________
This said it was effective on May 25th, 2016.
When I look at TD Ameritrade stats I see this:
Market Cap – 11.8M
Shares Outstanding – 33.1M (this would indicate the shares haven’t been rolled back yet)
When I look at Scottrade stats, I see this :
Market Cap Micro Cap | 3M
Shares Outstanding 7.95M (?) I’m not even sure what this indicates, because even if one includes the warrants it doesn’t explain this number, but Scottrade is odd)
Float 2.5M
Here is Bloomberg’s stats:
MARKET CAP (M CAD) $15.534
SHARES OUTSTANDING (M) 33.052 – (again we see 33 million shares)
________________________________________________________________________
LPG based on their most recent press release and that Yahoo finance, TD Ameritrade & Bloomberg are all in agreement, then it would appear that there are 33 million shares outstanding, and that the rollback (scheduled for May 25,2016) has not occurred yet.
You got me concerned about this, so I cashed the rest of the position out today on a direct channel sale in the Canadian market.
I’ll still probably buy it back, but I want guidance on when the share rollback will happen first.
Ex, according to Morningstar, Interactive Brokers, and another source, the rollback has happened. IB shows the MCap to be $1.5M and, considering the size of the moves lately, 3.18M shares out makes sense.
Don’t forget that there’s the usual 4 month hold on the newly issued 29.87M shares so volatility could remain unusually high until those shares are free-trading.
It is just very odd that 3 different sources say 33 million shares out as of this morning, but you listed 2 sources I feel better about showing 3 million. ๐
Base on their press release, if they stated it would be done on May 25th, you’d think they’d be required by law to do so.
Even their most recent Corporate Presentation says as of:
Share Structure โ August 2016
Shares Issued & Outstanding: 34,051,753
Warrants: 30,870,000
Options: 0
Shares fully diluted: 64,921,753
It’s just very strange that in August, they would state this is their share structure (long after May 25th).
I think there would have been another press release if they had not done the rollback.
As for the new Corporate presentation that you mentioned, I think it IS accurate since the numbers are close to my calculation above: 33,051,751 shares out with 29,870,000 warrants and no options (post rollback 3.18xx + 29.87xx from the new offering). The 29.87M shares have been issued but they just aren’t trading yet.
Lucky bastards took those shares down for a frickin’ nickel each! ๐
Shad/Matthew,
Thanks for your input on that one.
Company is issuing press releases it does’t put on its website… (…)
So I went to Sedar –> should have done that earlier as far as Press Rel are concerned.
There was one press release on August 5 – I paste here some of the text, which will help reconcile some # for Matthew and also vis-a-vis what is mentioned in their corp pres:
“August 5, 2016 – Vancouver, BC โ Monster Mining Corp. (TSX-V: MAN; US OTC: MMNGF)
clarifies that further to its news release of July 29, 2016, the total number of units issued
was 30,870,000 for total gross proceeds of $1,543,500. This amendment corrects the
previously announced numbers. The private placement closed on July 29, 2016.”
Best and Thanks again to the both of you.
LPG
Ah-ha. OK well that 30,870,000 jives with their August Corporate presentation for the number of warrants.
My question is still why on their August presentation they still show 34,051,753 shares and not 3.4 M. They show as of August (with the warrants)that the shares fully diluted: 64,921,753.
If there was a rollback of 10 to 1 in May, then there should be 3.4M shares not 34,051,753. It is also still bizarre to me that 3 different financial sites still show 33M shares as of this morning, one site shows 7.9M, and then the 2 sites Matthew mentioned only show 3.18M. (not 3.4M). What an odd monster…..
Thanks, LPG. That’s exactly what I thought had happened. Private placements rarely turn out to be exactly as initially reported.
Ex, the rollback took the number to 3.18M shares:
May 24, 2016
Monster Mining Corp. Announces Share Consolidation
May 24, 2016 – Vancouver, BC – Monster Mining Corp. (TSX-V: MAN; US OTC: MMNGF) announced that, further to its news release dated April 29, 2016, effective May 25, 2016 at market open, the Company will consolidate its common shares on the basis of one (1) post-consolidation common share for every ten (10) pre-consolidation common shares.
The Company will have a total of approximately 3,181,751 post-consolidation common shares issued and outstanding.
—————————————————-
Then, the recent financing added 30.87M shares.
3.18 + 30.87 = 34.05
+ 30.87M warrants = 64.92M fully diluted shares
Got it. I wasn’t factoring in the financing for 30.87M shares, I was mentally stuck on just the 30.87M warrants. So their corporate presentation is correct and these are the real numbers and they do indeed have $34M shares outstanding + 30.87M warrants.
Share Structure โ August 2016
Shares Issued & Outstanding: 34,051,753
Warrants: 30,870,000
Options: 0
Shares fully diluted: 64,921,753
Thanks Matthew.
LPG I’ve circled all the way back around to my initial response to you:
“Iโd call it roughly 65,000,000 fully diluted…” and this time I’m 100% certain ๐
BUT, only 3.18M are trading ๐
Shad,
Glad you’re clear on that one now – I’m clear too, so thanks to you & Matthew.
Matthew’s right: only 3mnish are trading at the moment…
So Shad, you can have some fun until Nov. 28 trading. After that date, be careful of the “avalanche warning” ๐
Best to the both of you.
LPG
I just took the “Monster” proceeds and stored them in a little more (ASM) Avino Silver & Gold, and a little more (BXTMF) Brixton Metals. I feel safer with it in those two for upside appreciation.
Srsrocco. Must listen
Sprout buys EXCELLON.
EXLLF.
https://soundcloud.com/kingworldnews/excellon-resources-inc/s-Gx3r8
C/DFS,
E. Sprott bought Excellon shares a few months ago…
Best,
LPG
Fighting my iPad again! Sprott not sprout…I hate apple, made for idiots, bought by idiots .
‘M stupid!
Don’t worry about your iPad misspells. We know exactly what you’re saying.
I love my Imac. Worked for 8 years without a glitch.
Platinum down $35….,what a joke
Sold a portion of my (PLM) Polymet Mining stock yesterday @ $1.09, and bought it back today at $.92. I love the volatility as a trader.
Super,…sounds good to me. ๐
The PGMs have been on a tear lately, so today they were just taking a breather.
Taking a breather , or sucking the wind out of your sails
Ha! It was the wind between my cheeks….. I was a seller yesterday and buyer today. The only thing that sucks the wind out of my sails is a flat market. ๐
Ha ,Ha. Good One
South Africa output topples platinum, palladium prices
Frik Els | about 9 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/south-african-output-topples-platinum-palladium-prices/
Surprise, surprise, I just had a look at Cameco, (CCO) there stock has been battered. DT
Dick Tracy – Agreed. It is the small producers, near term development stage companies, and in particular the exploration companies that have fared best for the Uranium Miner. I haven’t owned Cameco in years, and don’t see any reason to with so many other choices with more torque. (I am a short duration trader though)
Today which was a bullish day for Uranium overall though:
UEX Corp (UEXCF)
$0.164 up +$0.0012 (+0.74% gain)
Western Uranium Corp (WSTRF)
$1.684 up +$0.014 (+0.84% gain)
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)
$9.78 +$0.34 (+3.54% Gain)
Denison Mines Corp. (DNN)
$0.5335 up +$0.0235 (+4.61% gain)
UR-Energy Inc. (URG)
$0.5599 up + $0.0274 (+5.15% gain)
NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXGEF)
$1.9687 up +$0.0987 (+5.28% gain)
Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU)
$2.42 up +$0.18 (+8.04% gain)
Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC)
$1.20 up +$0.14 (+13.21% gain)
Uravan Minerals Inc. (URVNF)
$0.30 up +$0.05 (+21.46% gain)
Uranium Resources, Inc. (URRE)
$1.69 up +$0.42 (+33.07% gain)
Purepoint Uranium Group Inc (PUMGF)
$0.0821 up + $0.0263 (+47.13% gain)
A New Wrinkle In The Paper CON GAME….by Turd..@ zerohedge
LME to include copper and aluminum..starting 1st half 2017
World Gold Council ,must be getting ready to mix the metal……alummee gold . Lol
CFS. It was in the top left corner..at the time l posted…but thanks for the follow up
TURD..needs to post the dang article here first
It’s not over at zerohedge.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7794/interesting-development-gold-and-all-other-markets
The SGE gold and silver ended fairly high, and ignored the US dropping prices, so we have one of the biggest differences in prices since the SGE opened.
Will US prices rise or Chinese prices fall? (Or are we going to see exchange rate change over the weekend?). We may find out tomorrow, or after the weekend!
The latest Palisade radio.
DFS – That link takes me to a show from May.
Did you mean the Rick Rule show from yesterday on Palisade?
Palisade โ Sprott Monthly Market Update: How to Identify a Worthy Private Placement Investment
BY COLLIN KETTELL ON AUGUST 10, 2016 – Palisade Radio
Forgive him , he said he was working off a cheap IPhone.
Ha! no worries, just thought if others went to the May show they may miss Rick Rule.
Thanks, I copied I thought their share link, but obviously did not.
I can’t wait to get back to Windows!
I sure appreciate your posts DFS. Thanks!
Erdogan Threatens To Abandon US Dollar In Trade With Russia
by Tyler Durden
Aug 11, 2016 3:26 PM
Doc was mentioning the dollar.
A few countries have begun bypassing the dollar, ya gotta wonder how long utill the purchasing power really declines.
TGD just came out with a bunch of news. I’m no accountant, but geeze!
Karl – Thanks for the head up!
I’ll post it here in case anyone else is interested:
Timmins Gold Outlines Complete Pre-Construction Program for Ana Paula
US$9.2 Million Budget Approved to Complete Drilling, Feasibility and Permitting
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Aug. 11, 2016)
TPRFF: Nobody backing up the truck? This year has some volume though.
Silver:gold still struggling at the 200 week MA:
It will be very good for the whole sector when that level is finally below the ratio.
+200. I know, let’s have Silver just get on with it and start definitively moving above the 200 Week MA. It is also right in that congestion zone where the 2013 and 2014 troughs bottomed, and the where the late 2014 final mini-peak topped out. If silver can blast through this area eventually it will be good, but it is serving as resistance at present.
Ha! I still feel the same way I do up above, but just realized that was a Silver:Gold ratio chart. Funny, it has the exact same kind of pattern that Silver itself does, where I want it to break out of the congestion zone from prior troughs/peaks, and break above that neckline. I was thinking Silver already did break out above the 200 Week MA, but that may be Gold. There are so many things breaking out with the general stock market, Gold, Silver, the PGMs, I can’t keep it all straight.
You’re right, $silver is also at the 200 week MA:
OK – YES, Silver already had broken above it’s 200 week average, but is right in the middle of the 2013/2014 congestion zone, and that has put a cap on things. A breakout on a closing basis for Silver up above $21.63, $22.18, and $23.09 (the 3 old prior peaks) would be very constructive.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99294196538
I know why I’m thinking we broke above it on Silver. I typically use the 200 Day EMA and 200 Week EMA. If it is substituted with the 200 Week SMA then we’re in the thick of it. Sorry, I’m on the same page now. [getting sleepy]
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04010533266
Yes, using the EMAs, silver is clear for take-off:
“Got clearance, Clarence”
Guyana Goldfields Posts 2Q Profit, Hikes Output Guidance
Friday August 12, 2016
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-08-12/Guyana-Goldfields-Posts-2Q-Profit-Hikes-Output-Guidance.html
A strong close for the Canadian dollar tomorrow would also be good for the sector:
Another angle:
…and another:
The 80.xx area should fall easily next time:
So Matthew, you think the Jan 2016 low in Canadian dollar is a multi-year low not to be breached a few years?
Hi Murray, yes I do.
JAG traded a whopping 13 million shares today.
It is under heavy accumulation (bottom of chart):
Well it did graduate just recently after all. Once investors saw it dressed in it’s cap and gown, they realized it’s been through the school of hard knocks, and now it is ready for the business of mined rocks.
The weekly chart is a picture of strength:
Macy’s comparable sales were down 2.6%
Projected close of.?…..One hundred stores. How many people? Macyโs Inc. (NYSE: M) did not say how many it will lay off when it shuts the locations. The number could be 200 employees a store or, by another calculation, a percentage drop of Macyโs total employee pool of just over 150,000 workers. Either way, the figure has to be close to 20,000 people, which would be one of the largest job cuts by any American publicly held company in this year. Macy’s will become lean and mean, but this is a trend which will not stop as people use the Internet to buy things.