A technical outlook for the S&P, AuRico Metals and Colorado Resources
Rick Ackerman is with us today with his technical outlook for the general US market and a couple resource companies. Here is what he takes a look at today…
- The S&P 500 (more specifically the mini S&P),
- AuRico Metals – ARCTF & TSX: AMI,
- Colorado Resources – CLASF & TSX.V:CXO
As always click here to visit Rick’s website and learn more about his services.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Jackson Hole today: http://imgur.com/jXacB3z
I keep going back to that picture above of the Yellenator for a laugh.
😮
Gold has been on a wild ride today (in green). Fedbabble rollercoaster…..
And we are only half way through the day. See what next half brings.
and back up we go!
These metals and miners are all over the map today (up/down/up/down). Goodness gracious!
As a trader I take great delight in all this volatility. Well…. back to the show (grabbing popcorn, and switching on another monitor to keep track of the madness).
Well the spot price of Gold didn’t end up so hot, but some of the miners did fine or better than expected under the circumstances, so I’d say that was encouraging.
Gold held up quite well considering th 1.3% rocket in the $USD @ 10:11am into the he 11 am hour
Agreed. Things could have been worse under those conditions, but overall the metals and miners held up OK.
No rate hike ….like everyone thought….Fed is a joke and will remain so.
There is no way in September ,either .
Gold and silver looking good….
Barron’s says:
It’s Time to Hedge Bets on Gold Positions
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=5599&ns=T&vid=10650&tws
They’re a little late with that advice.
Ha ha… yeah. 3 weeks ago would have been good.
They’re just trying to close their hedges into fresh dumb-money hedging.
Here we go loop de loo
Here we go loop de la…
Gold and silver…dumb and dumber
She hikes, she hikes me not, she hikes, she hikes me not…
It’s all laughable
Anyone who thinks they can play technicals or fundamentals has a screw loose.
The charts tell me gold is going up, it is breaking out, oh wait, someone just dumpedm1.5 billion gold, didn’t see that on the charts.
Wake up people!
I netted just shy of 3% on DSLV this morning. Took up a small position in ASM, UWTI, USLV, and DUST just for fun. Been dealing with blanktards all day on the help desk. Hope to make a few more bucks today but we’ll see.
Jason – I also have added a bit more (ASM) last week and this week.
Good luck with you ETF adventures you madman.
Hey Ex, how’s it going? Here is a buy cheat sheet for you for ASM on the possible Fibonacci retracement. First buy area is 2.17 which we hit yesterday. I bought a 1/4 position today when she went into launch mode. But as you know the rocket crashed back on the launch pad shortly after lift off. I bought back in at 2.29. You are right about me being crazy. I am playing today with no stops! Kinda like no condom sex but with stocks!
ASM Fib retrace 2.17 for 40%
ASM Fib retrace 1.91 for 50%
ASM Fib retrace 1.68 for 60%
Funny Jason. I don’t typically use stops either. Living the extreme.
Yes, I purchased some ASM around $2.18 yesterday.
As for Fib retracements they are at 23.6% , 38.2%, (some throw in 50%), and 61.8% , so I don’t quite understand the 40%/50%,60% targets.
I considered selling some of that position earlier today when it took off, but decided to hang on to it for further upside. That was a bad decision as it has pulled back to $2.18 where I bought it yesterday. Booo Hisss. 🙁
Oh well, “Momma said you gonna have days like this.”
I was trying to fight the urge of trimming the winners too early and letting them run, but now I have the runs as I’m climbing the wall of worry….
Gosh (ASM) has just camped out in that $2.17-$2.19 support zone – I guess everyone had the same idea to scout it out at the 38.2% retracement.
“Oh waiter, I’ll take bounce from this level over a trounce please…”
Always on the run,
with the runs.
I´m up on the wall too…
NIce one Pete!
USO please
Higher gold price will add 10m annual ounces by 2020
Frik Els | 20 minutes ago
http://www.mining.com/higher-gold-price-will-add-10m-annual-ounces-2020/
I use the 40, 50, 60% for retracement since I have a small brain that does not do math well. Be proud Shad! I just made a WHOPPING 77 cents on a DUST stop out! Well I guess it’s better than a loss any way. Just for the record I pulled down 17% net and 21% net profits on ASM in July and August. Will average down my 2.29s later.
Nice work on the ASM profits sir. Funny on the $0.77 profit in DUST. (now you know where it get’s it’s name 😉 )
Jason – If you want some weekend reading…..
Fibonacci Retracements
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:fibonacci_retracemen
Excellent, thanks!
We will rename the 40% / 50% / 60% levels as Jasonacci Retracements moving forward.
Ex, I think I am mixing up Fib with Dow theory. But it works for me!
40% is close to 38.2% and 60% is close to 61.8% , but I shared that link just so you’d see the mathematics behind Fibonacci Retracements is the mathematical language of the universe:
Thanks Pete. Hadn’t seen that yet – going to catch up on all the news later this evening.
Thank you,Excelsior for all the work/research that you do,and share here.
Glad to share ideas with the sharp investors on here.
MXSG, steady as she goes now.
The next real catalyst will be once we get an update on when production will start.
BITCF a penny stock scam just bought 4 gold mines in Venezuela along with some oil rigs in the US. I have about 43K shares averaged at 1.3 cents. Stock is sitting at 0.0073 today. Would love for this to get bought out.
What do you think of Thor? A buddy of mine “MiningBookGuy” over at ceo dot ca posted a similar article on them and seems animated by their story:
Here’s that article for reference:
Thor completes transformational acquisition of Nigerian gold project
19TH AUGUST 2016 – HENRY LAZENBY
I haven´t done any research on Thor.
Defiance Silver (TSXV: DEF) remains determined to keep advancing the past-producing San Acacio silver mine in Zacatecas’ historic silver district in central Mexico, as investor sentiment and precious metal prices pick up, ahead of its next drill program.
“There’s a lot more smiles on people’s faces these days,” Bruce Winfield, the company’s president and CEO, says. “It’s really nice to see the difference in people’s attitudes. So that’s going to assist us all.”
Winfield, a professional geologist who has worked for both major and junior mining firms, has been involved in the exploration and development of five mines in Latin America, including La Libertad in Nicaragua and La Colorado in Mexico. He’s now looking to make San Acacio his sixth success story.
Defiance, which became a public company in 2008, signed an option agreement to earn a 100% interest in San Acacio from a private Mexican firm in October 2011. Given the tough capital markets, Defiance revised the payment terms for San Acacio several times, to provide it enough financial flexibility to keep working on the deposit.
The historic mine contains 10 mining concessions, covering 7.5 sq. km. It controls about 65% of the 8.6 km long Veta Grande vein system, one of the three main vein systems in the Zacatecas silver district, where silver production started in 1546.
Defiance describes Veta Grande as a “classic epithermal silver-rich vein system with accessory gold and base metal credits.” Historically, Veta Grande churned out more than 200 million oz. silver, with about half of that coming from the San Acacio mine.
Past mining at San Acacio occurred over a strike length of 1.2 km and at an average depth of 210 metres, meaning much of the property has yet to see modern exploration.
“What we have been postulating is we can drill underneath and along strike and increase the resource,” Winfield says, adding the company plans to kickoff its largest drill program ever this year.
But, the ride to this point has been rather slow, given the junior’s limited cash.
Defiance had split its original focus on validating San Acacio’s historic resource and earning into the nearby Santa Gabriela mill from Impact Silver (TSXV: IPT).
In late 2012, it updated San Acacio’s historic open-pit resource to National Instrument 43-101 standards, using a silver equivalent cutoff grade of 65 grams per tonne.
At the end of 2013, Defiance dropped its option on the mill to concentrate on San Acacio, citing “difficult market conditions.”
It wasn’t until December 2014 that the junior initiated the first phase of its 5,000-metre drill program, designed to test the San Acacio deposit at depth.
Meanwhile, a month later, it replaced the previous resource estimate, using a higher silver equivalent cutoff grade of 100 grams to support its vision of mining the deposit from underground instead of from surface. It also eliminated some of the lower-grade stockwork mineralization to increase the resource grade.
As of January 2015, San Acacio contained an inferred resource of 17.9 million silver equivalent oz. (2.9 million tonnes at 192.5 silver equivalent grams), with results from the first phase of drilling, showing further expansion potential.
Between 2014 and 2015, Defiance completed 11 holes totaling 3,000 metres on the deposit.
The first eight holes extended mineralization by 140 metres below the current resource, bringing the mineralization to roughly 300 metres at depth, Winfield says, adding the silver equivalent grades were significantly higher than the current resource. For instance, hole no. 2 intersected 16.7 metres of 235.5 silver equivalent grams, including a 3.2-metre intercept grading 499.4 silver equivalent grams.
The remaining three holes, released this March, extended mineralization 550 metres to the southeast of the eight holes as well as 140 metres below the current resource.
“We were very successful. We had a series of impressive intersections, wide widths and high grades of silver equivalent,” Winfield recalls.
The mineralized intersections averaged 5 to 12 metres wide, which is roughly the length of a large school bus with a 72-person capacity.
Defiance notes San Acacio is at an early development phase similar to Capstone Mining’s (TSX: CS; US-OTC: CSFFF) nearby Cozamin copper-silver underground mine before it started producing.
The company expects to receive its drill permit for its new program shortly. That program will focus on finishing the first phase of drilling or testing the 1.2 km vein under the San Acacio mine to grow the existing resource, as well as starting the second phase of exploration to test the 900-metre extension to the southeast, “where there are some intermittent old workings, but no past production,” Winfield explains.
The new program will include between 5,000 and 10,000 metres and could start in the fall, depending on permitting and financing.
Meanwhile, Defiance has signed another surface rights agreement, which allows it to explore the entire 5.6 km strike length on the Acacio property. It has also renegotiated its US$5.95 million San Acacio purchase agreement to defer US$300,000 in payments due this year to September 2018.
Under the revised terms, the junior will pay four quarterly payments of US$37,500 totaling US$150,000 by year-end. It has two quarterly payments remaining for 2016, and enough funds on hand to meet its commitments for the next 12 months, Winfield says.
That said, he adds the firm will look to raise more funds for its renewed drill efforts. Defiance last replenished its treasury in April, after receiving $1.2 million in proceeds from the exercise of warrants.
The northern miner Fri 26 Aug 2016.
Pete – Do you have a position in Defiance Silver? I’ve been watching it go like crazy and know that their land has high grade resources on ground that had past producing mines. I saw an interview a few months back where Brent Cook asked them how they are going to continue to drill out and prove their concept, and it seemed like getting the funding was a challenge.
I’ve also mentioned their recent press release where Peter Hawley was added to their board of directors at Defiance Silver. Peter was the guy behind Scorpio Mining that split into Scorpio Gold and Scorpio Silver (which became US Silver & Gold and now it is Americas Silver Corp) .
I was wondering if either Scorpio Gold or more likely Americas Silver Corp may make a move at taking over Defiance sometime down the road. (?)
I went and dug up that video with Brent Cook checking into Defiance Silver from March:
Brent Cook likes this Mexican silver deposit – Defiance Silver
Published on Mar 28, 2016
Exploration Insight’s Brent Cook takes a closer look at Defiance Silver’s San Acacio silver project in Mexico, sharing ideas on both the pros and cons of the junior’s chief asset.
Thanks for the video,Excelsior.
I thought Brent did a good job of getting right to the crux of the matter and challenging them on how they would prove out their resource with the previous mine working scattered around the land, and how they’d fund the exploration. In general I felt content with the answers the company gave, and I agree with Brent that the best path forward for Defiance would be a JV partner (as mentioned below).
Excelsior,
I like Defiance ,but don´t have a position at present.
Their Connection to Impact is interesting.
I hope that some bigger fish dont swallow them,
Well, a win-win would be if they JV’d the project out to a larger company with the finances to move forward their exploration goals. They’d give up partial ownership but would advance things without as dilutive of a financing, and bring in other experience from the partnering company. That’s the route I’d like to see play out – very similar to the approach Kootenay is taking on JVing their project out to Pan American Silver.
Go long copper ?
What do you see as a catalyst for Copper in the near term?
Longer term I plan on going long Copper, but it hasn’t been that strong recently.
There are a few Copper/Nickel/PGM and Copper/Gold projects I do like with certain miners, but overall I’m not ecstatic about Doctor Copper for the near future.
I think we’re both glad that silver hadn’t “been that strong recently” when we were buying our silver juniors at the lows in January. Once silver had been strong for a very short time, those juniors were up three to five fold.
The copper miners are telling us that copper bottomed in January.
COPX priced in copper:
Short term, copper looks like it will soon turn up.
Oops, that should have been this one:
Screwed up again – that’s the loonie, not copper.
Short term maybe. Longer term copper still has a downward trajectory.
Nice chart, yes i have some long term copper miner positions that i wont sell for years.
Agreed Matthew. This may be the contrarian time to start eyeballing solid copper projects, and I have been working on that sector. I’ve just spent most of my time the last few weeks on Zinc and PGMs and doubled the scope of the companies I was aware of and found a few new gems in the rough….. I’ll be working on Copper next.
As you know, my main focus is the gold and silver juniors because that’s where the real action is going to be for quite awhile but zinc and copper juniors have plenty of potential, too.
I still like Constantine Metals for their copper/zinc/gold/silver Palmer project and their gold properties.
Agreed on Constantine for the Copper/Zinc/Gold/Silver mix.
Yes, I’m liking Silver miners with good Zinc credits, and Copper miners with good Gold credits, and Copper/Nickel/PGM/Silver miners. There are so many more that I even realized existed, and I’m going through a vetting process to narrow down the mining universe into something more manageable.
Really there are dozens and dozens of interesting exploration and development stories I’m reviewing at present and wish I could own them all, but am trying to narrow it down to 2 groups. Companies that are so solid I can set it and forget it and dump in money for the long term, and companies with near – mid term advantage over their peer group. In both cases I’m looking for management teams that are capitalizing on their strengths that the market has not given them credit for yet. Some companies are great companies, but their moves have priced in a lot of the short-term upside, and there are some companies that haven’t moved for good reason, or because they have a legal or economic hurtle blocking the way, or the need a financing/assay results/partner/milestone announcement to move the needle again. There is also this group that moved a little, but not as much as their peers, but they have intriguing stories & opportunities, but are not covered by an ETF or hyped by a newsletter writer. I tend to like those low volume and unloved companies that are well run and making nice progress under the radar. Eventually, the rest of the market will reward good results and wake up to their opportunity, but I like to have built into a position over time before it is quite so obvious, and then sell when the company is more properly valued.
Th there are also the polymetallic small to mid-size producers (with a Copper/Gold/Silver/Lead/Zinc mix) that are in themselves a form of diversification amongst different metals.
I agree with you though that most of my focus is on the primary Gold and Silver stocks. Every week I find more and more small producers, development stage companies, and advanced exploration stories that look really interesting. I’m trying to select a few winners in each subsector, but there are just so many to choose from that I’m working on just narrowing down a dirty dozen in each of the subsectors to follow on a move-forward basis.
I¨m just playing with charts,and was thinking of going long for a bounce,i see no near term catalyst.
Interesting. Yes, there are some miners that I just like their exploration or development stories, and a few polymetallic producers that have really trimmed the fat and have their business in order, even if prices hang out in this area for Copper, Nickel, Lead, Zinc, Silver, Gold. There are always businesses shuffling for position, so I’ll probably nibble at a few miners with strong copper components in the near future.
Cheers!
The bears were able to keep the loonie in check one more time.
Thanks Matthew,for posting the charts.
http://www.tmacresources.com/Home/default.aspx
Sabina gold & silver-SBB (with all their issues)the next Tmac-TMR?
I played the rebound in Sabina when the markets over-reacted to the downside on their decline due to First Nations concerns and the effects on the caribou.
There have been further concerns voiced in the mining community, and so there is still the outside chance this one could get shut down. I’m in the camp with most observers that expect the project to move forward, and I feel they’ll get the concerns addressed, and transition their asset into a producing mine over the next 2 years.
Well, it only took 2 hours for the market to realize Janet was blowing hot air.
Bjut it did allow me to dump some more stock.