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Which Countries Are Damaged Most by Low Oil Prices?

Cory
August 29, 2016

This info-graph comes courtesy of Jeff Desjardins, founder of Visual Capitalist. Jeff outlines the countries who produce the most barrels of oil then further breaks it down to their cost per barrel. I think this breakdown is very important for investors to consider each Country’s motivation for the future of oil prices.

Let us know what you think of the breakdown and click here to visit Jeff’s site.

Chart: Which Countries Are Damaged Most by Low Oil Prices?

This week’s chart looks at costs per barrel, exports, and total oil production.

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Oil is by far the world’s most-traded commodity, with $786.3 billion of crude changing hands in international trade in 2015.

While low commodity prices can hurt any major producer, oil prices can have a particularly detrimental effect on oil-rich economies. This is because, for better or worse, many of these economies hold onto oil as an anchor for achieving growth, filling government coffers, and even fueling social programs.

If those revenues don’t materialize as planned, these countries turn increasingly fragile. In the worst case scenario, an extended period of low oil prices can cause the fate of an entire regime to hang by a thread.

Which Countries are Damaged Most by Low Oil Prices?

This week’s chart explores three key pieces of high-level data on the oil sector from 2015: the cost of production ($/bbl), total oil production (MMbbl/day), and the world’s top exporters of oil ($).

The general effects of these factors are pretty straightforward:

  • Countries that have a high cost of production per barrel are going to find it tough to make money in a low oil price environment
  • Countries that are major producers or exporters tend to rely on oil revenues as a major economic driver
  • Oil producers that are major exporters also have to deal with another factor: the effect that low oil prices may have on their currencies

Here are some particular countries that are under duress from current energy prices:

Venezuela
Back in the Hugo Chávez era, things were better in Venezuela than they are today. Oil prices were mostly sky-high, and this enabled the socialist country to bring down inequality as well as put food on the table for its citizens. However, as the World Bank described in 2012, since oil accounted for “96% of the country’s exports and nearly half of its fiscal revenue”, Venezuela was left “extremely vulnerable” to changes in oil prices.

And change they did. Oil prices are now less than 50% of what they were when the World Bank wrote the above commentary. Partially as a result, Venezuela is having all sorts of problems, ranging from runaway hyperinflation to shortages in almost everything.

Venezuela’s cost per barrel isn’t bad at $23.50, but the country is the world’s ninth-largest oil exporter with $27.8 billion of exports in 2015. If oil prices were north of $100/bbl, Venezuela’s situation would be a lot less dire.

Russia
Russia is the world’s second-largest crude oil exporter, shipping $86.2 billion to countries outside of its borders in 2015. That’s good for 11.0% of all oil exports globally. Russia’s cost of production in 2015 was relatively low, at $17.30 per barrel.

But is declining oil revenue influencing foreign policy? It’s hard to say – but we do know that, historically, leaders have turned to nationalist projects during tougher economic times. In this case, Putin may have focused Russia’s national attention on Ukraine as a way to deflect from a less-than-rosy economic outlook.

Brazil
All is not well in Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff could be impeached by as early as next week.

Brazil is the ninth-largest producer of oil globally, pumping out about 3.2 million barrels per day. However, a bigger concern may be the cost of producing oil in the country. The production cost in 2015 was a hefty $48.80/bbl, among the most expensive of major oil producers.

The post-Olympics hangover will be a challenging one in Brazil, as it faces its worst economic crisis in 30 years. The largest country in Latin America had its economy shrink 5.4% in the first quarter of this year.

Nigeria

Nigeria, which will soon be one of the three most populous countries in the world, is also very reliant on oil revenues to prop up its economy.

The country has a $7 billion budget deficit due to lower oil revenues, and it recently also dropped its peg to the U.S. dollar on June 15th. The naira fell 61% against the dollar since then, wreaking havoc throughout the economy. Nigeria also recently lost its title of “Africa’s largest economy”, handing it back to South Africa.

Nigeria is the sixth-largest exporter of oil, with annual exports of $38 billion in 2015. Its cost of production is higher than average, as well, at $31.50 per barrel.

Canada

Canada’s economy is largely diversified, but it is also the world’s fifth-largest exporter of oil with $50.2 billion of exports in 2015. Costs are also high in the oil sands, and the average cost of production per barrel was $41.10 throughout the country.

The oil bust has dragged the energy-rich province of Alberta into a recession, and the Canadian dollar is also severely impacted by oil prices for multiple reasons. Alberta’s economy is about to have its largest two-year contraction on record, while the provincial government’s deficit has exploded to $10.9 billion.

Energy investment in Alberta is forecast to be about half of the total from 2014. Meanwhile, economic conditions elsewhere have also been impacted, as areas such as housing, retail, labor markets, and manufacturing have all felt the pinch.

Discussion
4 Comments
    Aug 29, 2016 29:31 AM

    This article seems to be mostly from the production/industry point of view. Low prices in most places are passed through to consumers. Since Americans drive far more than most, the advantage to those drivers isn’t mentioned. It would seem to me that Chinese imports must surly be an advantage. Venezuela’s people are bearing the brunt of low revenues simply because their government subsidized most cost of living from oil sales. It’s an industry pain in the US and Canada and an oligarch pain in Russia and most of the middle east. JMO

    Aug 29, 2016 29:15 AM

    Great article well done. S

    Aug 29, 2016 29:11 PM

    Alberta will no longer be a have province in Canada, they were once called “The Blue Eyed Arabs”. They will survive but only as a grain and cattle producer. They had their chance with “The Heritage Fund” when oil was riding high but the Canadian prairies aren’t suited for much else and besides they have strong socialist ideas. DT

    Aug 30, 2016 30:33 AM

    The $USD used to be silver coin. 1 USD Silver Dollar says “UNITED STATES”.

    The paper fiat dollar is different in that it says “The United States Of America”.

    Seems insignificant, except the word “The” is a device that changes the status of the word ‘United’, which means when used as an Adverb is changes the meaning of the word next to it which means its status changes the entire LEGAL meaning of the words on the piece of paper used as money. It’s the perfect fraud in a sense. but why?

    When the United States money ceases to have monetary value as a circulating currency it will begin to lose its status as a collateral value in trade between entities like government or corporate contracts. That may not materialize for several more years, but as the USD loses purchasing power the Energy stored in the material called oil will take more units of paper currency to purchase the same quantity of Oil in a barrel.

    The Effect of the gradual destruction of the USD will be caused by numerous failed economic policies. When Helicopter money, QE Forever, and other ideas start, the quantity of dollars needed to buy a barrel of Oil will increase.

    A stronger Dollar will shrink the demand for dollars to purchase Oil. A weaker Dollar will raise the qty of dollars required to purchase Oil. The Saudi Arabia 2Trillion Asset sale will need to outrun the collapse of the USD or that country and it’s leaders will be in an economic corner with zero friends in military or Washington. by that time Iraq will be up and running for global export of energy. Any future conflict in the region of Saudi will not be supported with military defense by America because the entity “The United States of America” will likely be bankrupt and unable to finance its military abroad.
    as 9-11 truths are revealed, the public support to come to the aid of Saudi Arabia will diminish militarily and publicly to zero. they will be on their own.

    The south half of Iraq holds enough resources for the United States to no longer need Saudi Arabia on a go forward basis. the gas found in the Mediterranean is large enough to no longer need putin to supply gas to europe.

    As the USD falls in exchange rate the Canadians will collect more USD for their oil which is fed into the US Refinery network for export or consumption. meanwhile the falling dollar will raise prices for American oil to the break-even point, as this occurs the USA can bring back drilling and production of its tight oil and shale deposits. The transition you are about to witness is going to defy belief. The production rates from Canada to the USA will increase to the magic number of 1.6% of total global production by 2022, but it won’t be enough to drop down the price, because security of supply from cheaper imports will no longer exist.