Has the rising tide that lifted all markets turned?
We wrap up the markets with Chris Temple today discussing the US markets, gold and oil. Chris brings up the fact that the upward trend for most markets may have turned and we need to be aware of the downside. We also address some of the fundamental factors that are driving oil and will play a bigger road in the long term.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Geez, your a barrel of fun. lol
Just paraphrasing Chris comments today. I agree with him.
you really are a broken record, Bird.
you understand the LBMA knockdown is now over for a month don’t you?
That’s is a rhetoric question, since I really don’t care about your answer.
No one knows for sure the future, but if there is bullion bank manipulation affecting gold price levels, then gold should go up tomorrow.
Funny, I was thinking the exact same thing about you with your daily anti-Muslim, anti-USA, and pro-white agendas. A broken record…..click click click. Most of you gold guys fit into the same small box and become an easy read after awhile. Guns, gold and freedom!!
As if freedom is not possible any other way.
Its repetitive as hell and always the same story about how the banks or the Fed or the government took your playthings away and stifled your liberties.
Anyway, someone around here has to represent the bear camp for metals and naturally I am happy to accept that role since it seems to be one I have great success with most of the time. And its not a very crowded area since almost nobody here ever supports my viewpoints despite the fact I am frequently arriving at the correct conclusions.
Gold and silver meanwhile are both enjoying weak corrective bounces this morning that may carry into Friday but these look to me like set-ups before the next legs down rather than the start of a genuine price recovery.
The market is still in a black mood where gold is concerned.
Sorry!
Birdman, I think you fit the bill here for teacher’s pet, what’s a classroom without the straight “A” student. You can’t blame this on me it was Andrew that gave you “The Teacher’s Pet’ modus operandi.
DT, bears like me perform a useful function where everyone is concerned because the things I watch are like an early warning system of trouble for everyone invested in precious metals.
I don’t just post negative comments on gold because I am an ass.
I won’t tell you what to do of course but what I can offer is a heads up when technicals are breaking down. You might have noticed I am almost the only person posting on the outlook at present. And I have done my homework. Virtually all the usual super-bulls go dead silent when metals take a turn for the worse.
They are of no use at all when the chips are down and probably prefer everyone just stays invested regardless of how bad things look. So be careful who you listen too. Some posters here run an obvious pro-gold agenda and will not be there to warn you when the tide turns.
That’s where I come in. Sorry I am not always perfect but outside of the shows guests nobody else here will give you the bad news as it happens…..especially when you might need it most.
Stanley Fischer’s Bizarre Justification For Negative Rates
With over $13 trillion in global bond yields trading in negative territory as a result of central banks’ negative rates policies, leading bank profits to tumble and forcing savers in both Japan and now Germany to pull their money out banks and put into safe deposit boxes in their homes, there is little doubt that NIRP has been a failure: even such establishment financial outlets as the WSJ admit as much. Which is why when listening to today’s Stanley Fischer interview on Bloomberg TV with Tom Keene, one particular section caught our attention, namely the Fed Vice Chairman’s attempt to justify negative rates and how, despite all the evidence to the contrary, “negative rates seem to work in today’s world.”
We found the following exchange fascinating:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-30/stanley-fischers-bizarre-justification-negative-rates
This is not the 1920’s when oil had a bright future, now electric cars and home energy systems will be the new Henry Ford. Oil does not fit into the future in a big way. Canada has enough oil to supply North America forever, but oil is not a necessary commodity anymore.
That day will come, D.T…but not for a while. And IMO it will take at least one more major spike higher in the oil price as well as future supply shortages we discuss and–tragically–one or more MAJOR environmental accidents due to the fracking craze to bring about the environment where alternatives can reach the kind of critical mass and wider usage you describe.
A substantial part of all auto production requires oil. There is no substitute for plastics and paints. Electric cars will be a small % of production for the next 20 years at least.
We all used to use milk paint before oil was discovered Paul. I mean we used milk paint for a few thousand years until the advent of the petrochemical industry and would probably go back to using it again if the environmentalists had their way. Its damned good stuff too. Lasts for years and years. Go look at the old doors in any pre 20th century house for an example.
Tom Cloud Precious Metals Update: Will China Announce They Have More Gold Than The U.S.?
In Tom Cloud’s precious metals update this week he discusses how a source in Europe, which he has known for more than 35 years, has told him that there is going be a surprise as China may announce they have more gold in their official reserves than the United States.
Additionally, Tom says in his 40 years of business he has never had so many top money managers ($100 million to $1 billion in funds) call about how their client can get into owning physical gold as an investment.
Thanks for the info
The strong season is coming for gold but I can’t see buyers coming in at these high prices this year as they may have already loaded up when prices were low.
There are billions of Asians that will be buying.
Gold is not an American-centric commodity.
As Europe disintegrates millions of Europeans will also be buying.
They will come in on a good dip down near the 200 day average or so.
BINGO..professor….bingo……why cant people figure that out?????
This time last year people were going on about India buying loads of gold about to start… and it just did not happen.
They say it EVERY year Bob. Its in the handbook that all gold bugs follow and the information ain’t worth snot.
Here is a so called expert predicting 35.42 for GDX by Sept. 1st. Quite hilariious as he is using astrology.
http://safehaven.com/article/42369/gdx-has-just-made-a-powerful-bull-flag
Even the experts are clueless.
Interesting article and embedded chart.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/30/irs-doesnt-tell-1-million-taxpayers-that-illegal-i/
And several million are registered to vote.
Department of Justice scum do nothing. They are Democrat appointed, at higher levels, of course.
Bammy is sneaking in another 10,000 Syrian terrorists…er…I mean migrants before his term is up.
Hillary want to bring in over 600,000 in her first term. George Sorrows wants to see millions come in.
Oh, the sorrows we will see…you can bet these immigrants will vote for the Demonrats, too. Just wait until the 2020 election…Hitlery by a landslide.
I hate to see my country being killed by corrupt political scum.
More Constitution violations contemplated by HSA.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-issues-transit-visas-surge-african-migrants-220640035.html
Why won’t the HSA protect the border?
ignore the first minute or so, if you would like to hear Nigel Farage discuss the current state of the EU:
http://s3cdn.panda-os.com/1305/content/entry/data/0/795/0_rzqlim8e_0_4m0n4zhe_12.mp3
I have another potential convert to the dark side of the bear camp.
Avi Gilburt has just introduced the idea to his readers that gold may yet post a lower-low if his wave counts fail at critical current levels. Certainly that is possible and of course I not only agree that gold at a new low is in the cards but also believe its a certainty.
Gold never hit its final bottom. All we have seen thus far is a big fat dead-cat-bounce with gold having been unable to break out above its bear trend line channel going all the way back to 2011.
And now some of the savviest investors in the world have dumped their stakes in GLD and GDX right near the top. Gold bugs should not be surprised. This is not a trick on the part of Soros to manipulate the thinking of the gold camp.
He got out because the charts told him to get out. For exactly the same reasons I have been telling you bugs all along that this is not a new bull market nor is it the continuation of the old bull market.
We still need to see a retrace back to the mean much as silver had already accomplished before we can even consider the carnage is over in precious metals. On that point, silver is still destined for 10 dollars before this is all over and nearer term watch for platinum to retest 1000 again.
—————————————————————
Here is Avi’s lower-low comment of today:
“However, if the market should break all the levels cited above, it would suggest that a much deeper and longer correction is taking hold in the market (as presented in the blue count on my GDX chart), and may even increase the probabilities that a lower low MAY be seen” ~~~ Avi Gilburt
What I really would like to know is how many gold and silver miners are hedging production at this stage of the game. Or are they (as usual) so enraptured by the bugs positive talk that they are sitting on their hands once again.
Prior to the gold crash in 2011 almost all the miners failed in that regard and there was a lot of bitterness among some investors who felt that the miners had failed shareholders by not taking evasive action at an OBVIOUS top.
So instead of share prices holding their gains because of savvy management decisions we instead saw most plummet in value as they just refused to believe that a recovery in price was not coming anytime soon.
Shareholders who held on lost substantial amounts of money as stocks dropped relentlessly in sympathy with the price of gold. This is how the rhetoric of the gold bulls hurts everyone because both buyers and the companies themselves keep getting swept up in all the oh-so-convincing arguments about a new gold standard, hard money and a return to asset based investing.
It is one of the stupidest and most repetitive games going on in the precious metals market but for some reason nobody ever learns. Now its happening again. The bulls are still claiming a big breakout is coming.
Oh really?
Wake me up when gold can bust through 1400 level on a monthly basis and hold there. Then I will declare this is bull market and we can all get serious about a buy and hold strategy again.
Until then, a word to the wise…..you might just want to hedge at these current prices.
“It is one of the stupidest and most repetitive games going on in the precious metals market but for some reason nobody ever learns”.
The answer is in Bob Ms recommended book Popular delusion and madness of crowds.
Maybe just know human nature seems to be doing the same thing over and over expecting differant results.
Herdthink I suppose.
And just a follow up note…..if this peak in gold prices turns out to be THE peak at this stage of the cycle as I believe it is then gold is very unlikely to achieve the seasonal bounce in January that most people here expect.
We may have already gone too far in the cycle for that bounce to happen which tells us the New Year could see declines generally continue. Those who follow gold will readily recall 2013 when the bounce failed to materialize and instead gold dropped relentlessly through the year eventually taking 500 dollars off the tape.
I don’t expect anything quite that severe however neither is assured seasonality will reward the bugs (most of whom will be hanging on tight on the probability that gold will be soaring above 1400 dollars an once when December is done).
This is still a bear market folks. Enjoy the gains you have taken so far but be careful not to overplay the great hand that was given to you. Gold still needs to prove itself.
It has not done that yet.
Thanks for the info oiseau! Always good to have some cold water thrown on our faces when the biggest pop in gold might or might not be around the corner. Is this another shake out so the bigboys can enjoy a 40+% jump in the miners this fall or is the big “plop” that so so so many folks are hoping is upon us? Either way, it is nice to see some solid chartists sounding the alarm. At the end of the day these markets have delivered massive gains that we should all consider as a gift weather the plop or pop happens next month. Having said that, one has to expect that if the Fed does NOT raise rates in September, that $1440+ will be a slam dunk. The ball is in their court. They MUST raise this Sept in order for new lows to occur.
I believe just the opposite when it comes to a September hike. Gold is going to be fine no matter what they do but a hike would be better than no hike. I have no doubt about that at all.
Matt,
Interesting take….are you refering to the theory of gold rises in rate-hiking environments like in the Adam Hamilton article last year?
While gold went up 25x in the 1970s, interest rates were going up the whole time. After the hike last December, gold blasted 20% higher in less than two months. In the months leading up to that hike, I commented many times that a hike would be good for gold while most people, including guests on KER, thought gold would tank.
The dollar did well for the last few years because it was “risk-on” in America, not because it is a safe haven as so many assume.
Ditto .Mathew..Gold will do fine
Keep your eyes on platinum, Confused. Its damned close to losing 1050 right now and if that happens she’s heading sub 1000 quick. What happens on that chart reflects on all the precious metals since they generally trade together. In this case platinum is fulfilling the megaphone pattern very nicely so the outlook for pm’s is quite negative over all if plat is our guide.
Should You Invest in Platinum?
Jocelyn Aspa • August 24, 2016
The platinum price has risen over 25 percent year-to-date, but has cooled off lately. Should investors still consider the precious metal?
Northern Shield Mobilizes Drill To Huckleberry
Ottawa, Ontario (August 26, 2016)
Northern Shield Resources Inc. [TSX-V: NRN] [OTC: NSHRF] is pleased to announce that a drill crew has been mobilized to the Huckleberry Ni-Cu-PGE project in northern Quebec.
Noront Resources Completes MacDonald Mines Acquisition and Provides Exploration Update
08/24/2016
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Heading To $1,000
Avi Gilburt – Aug. 25, 2016
Sentiment Speaks: An Investor’s Journey Through Fundamentals, Technicals, And Market Sentiment To Significantly Increase Profits
Avi Gilburt – Aug. 28, 2016
Sentiment Speaks: Gold Is Heading To $25,000
Avi Gilburt – Aug. 23, 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4001490-sentiment-speaks-gold-heading-25000
If you just read the heading and the dates, one might think he changes his mind every couple of days…. 😉
A discussion a bout GDP.
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/wp-content/uploads/ica2016-0831.mp3
Today is expiry day for the London’s OTC/LBMA contracts. Their contracts are much bigger in quantity than the Comex options. So hopefully the attack on PMs will soon be over!
1307 ….or. $1306.90…..holding ,what hoot, right on time …this is total manipulation by the machine
Andy H…..Will have a field day with this action 🙂
Looks like support to me,but, we will see
It’s right on a pretty good support region right now Jerry. Just where I was worried gold might stall out because if it bounces from here then its established a new declining channel that suggests the fall will be long, slow and painful instead of rip the band-aid off satisfying. And its very near Ricks pivot of 1309 which I was hoping would be soundly breached. The piercing of 1309 however tells us the bias is still negative.
Bird,….this is just man,with the help of the paper machine(comexing madness machine),thinking he / it is in control. 1307…was a line in the shifting sand. The shaking out the weak hands w/o do not have a long time horizon. Gold is going high.
Dang phone
W/o …where did that come from?
DT….was right, dang machines are taking control. 🙂
Not this time Jerry. Shaking out of the weak hands is just words that some people use to make gold buyers feel better about holding on even as price falls. That’s a way they trick you to stay invested when you should really be strapping on a parachute. Don’t buy it. This is something else altogether and we have the warning lights that we should get the hell out of Dodge. My pattern that Moriarty criticized is playing out accurately so far and that gives me conviction I am correct in the negative assessment on metals going forward.
The only thing that will save gold now is if the Yen is merely putting in a handle (cup and handle formation). If that’s the case then we have a big rebound coming in the fall. Check this weekly chart to see exactly what I mean. It could take until December to form a proper handle on Yen around the .90 mark.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=w1
Short term you might be correct, long term might be another question.
Think ..Long term..
Been saying that for years ,so far so good. 🙂
Hope the Indians have a good harvest, and the girls want to have a big wedding.
The rice farmers are not going to buy Government bonds
Real estate is starting to tank , another cycle is or has started. Chinese might be looking for a new place to park some cash
Gold testing 100 day moving average , at 1304, Notional gold futures dump of $5billion ,…zerohedge
Wheres the inflation Jerry? Gold is just proving we are still in a deflation led environment. And food proves it too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-30/food-deflation-driving-least-profitable-year-20-years-farmers-and-grocers-get-crushe
There is inflation in the “health food” section,in the US,…..not the GMO area. Read the article, where it says. FRUITS AND VEGETABLES PRICES HAVE HELD UP
Fat ass Americans are getting the message
All you have to do is Go to any organic food store today vs 15 years ago and the answer is obvious…..
Plus you are seeing more gardens people growing there own
Btw…..thanks for the article, I am going to show it to my wife, and ask her if we can start saving some cash on food ….. 🙂
Note that the Yen is still falling this morning. Any words from Japan this weekend that sinks it further will probably kill gold next week. It seems to be leading gold right now by about a week. Yen topped in late June but gold waited 7 more trading days before doing the same. So today’s Yen decline may already be telling us about next weeks gold weakness.
Yen Daily Chart — FINVIZ.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=d1
Hi Birdman. Larry Edelson is still the bear camp. Last count he had 24000 in his services and a limited number in his jr. service to keep from moving the market.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/pounding-fist-table-81455
Thanks Doug. He and Armstrong seem to be saying the same things lately.
I read that he trained under Armstrong. I cannot afford Armstrong but I know they both use long- time cycles in markets, war cycles about every cycle in the whole world with thousands of data points.
Doug, you can get his email alerts for free
Daily…
Thanks Jerry I get his email but he block you out on his gold reports.
Top Junior Resource Stock Picks From PearTree’s Trent Mell
Posted By Smallcappower – August 31, 2016
http://smallcappower.com/top-stories/top-junior-resource-stock-picks-from-peartree-trentmell/
Gold Miners Will Outperform A Lot To Stock Markets In The Next Few Years
Aug. 30, 2016 – Joaquin Gonzalez
Gold price correction brings renewed selling of mining stocks
Frik Els | about 20 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/gold-price-correction-brings-renewed-selling-mining-stocks/
This Aussie miner will pay shareholders in gold
Cecilia Jamasmie | a day ago
http://www.mining.com/this-aussie-miner-will-pay-shareholders-in-gold/
Coronation’s view on commodities and resource shares Nic Stein, equity analyst.
Nastassia Arendse | 29 August 2016
We call that a Gold Exit = Gexit
Not much effect..Gold down $4…..big deal,not
Copper drops to lowest in two months on ample supply And China woes.
Joe Deaux (Bloomberg) | 30 August 2016
Hedge funds bail on copper as Goldman sees ‘supply storm’ Money managers switch to net-short position, CFTC data show.
Luzi-Ann Javier (Bloomberg) | 29 August 2016
Ivanhoe mines seeks strategic advice in response to unsolicited interest In its projects.
Ivanhoe Mines | 30 August 2016
So they seek their advice from a bank? Are they the best experts one can find for this type of advice?
I believe that getting outside consulting when there is an unsolicited offer or “interest” in a project is the normal process to have a 3rd party review the offers, and this clears the company of concerns of insider deals and any potential conflicts of interest. Basically it is the idea that 2 heads are better than one, and it is lawsuit protection for if they do actually sell one of the assets, or if they were to get taken over.
BTW – There is always a banker someone must bend a knee to….. Even billionaire Friedland.
Site visit: Great Panther is poised for growth, Archer says
JOHN CUMMING AUGUST 30, 2016
http://www.northernminer.com/news/site-visit-great-panther-poised-growth-archer-says/1003776965/
Coeur CEO builds on 2016 success with exploration investment
SALMA TARIKH AUGUST 29, 2016
http://www.northernminer.com/news/coeurs-ceo-krebs-outlines-plans-mexico/1003776915/
Avino Silver & Gold hits milestones in Durango
TRISH SAYWELL AUGUST 26, 2016
http://www.northernminer.com/news/avino-silver-gold-hits-milestones-durango/1003776878/
Defiance Silver to resume drilling at San Acacio
SALMA TARIKH AUGUST 26, 2016
http://www.northernminer.com/news/defiance-resume-drilling-san-acacio/1003776864/
Cyprium picks up momentum at Potosi
Cyprium Mining (TSXV: CUG)
Wesdome management talks high-grade discovery at Kiena
MATTHEW KEEVIL AUGUST 29, 2016
http://www.northernminer.com/news/wesdome-management-talks-high-grade-discovery-kiena/1003776919/
Battle Mountain Gold Begins Drill Program on Schedule at Lewis Gold Project
Vancouver, British Columbia / TheNewswire / August 30, 2016
Barkerville Gold Mines Intersects 10.02 G/T (0.29 Oz/T) Au Over 22.20 Metres Including 13.01 G/T (0.38 Oz/T) Au Over 11.50 Metres In Cow Mountain Phase I Drilling
Roxgold Announces Positive Results from Definition Program at Zone 55
TORONTO, Aug. 31, 2016
Midland Signs Definitive Joint-Venture Agreement Near Eleonore Mine and Cheechoo Gold Discovery and Provides an Update on Exploration Work
MONTREAL, QUEBEC–(Marketwired – Aug. 30, 2016)
Premier Gold Mines extends high grade mineralization at McCoy-Cove
THUNDER BAY, ON, Aug. 31, 2016
Millrock Purchases Exploration Operations Facility, Stewart Golden Triangle District, BC, Canada
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, August 30, 2016
Paramount Gold Nevada Commences a Pre-Feasibility Study at its Recently Acquired Grassy Mountain Gold Project
Winnemucca, Nevada – August 30, 2016
Politics….close your eyes.
TRICKY OBAMA WANTS TO CONTROL THE ELECTION FROM WASHINGTON….zerohedge
By ..forming ….Central Election System….
So check the HUI on the ten year chart. At that level you can see that it pinged off the upper Bollinger Band very nicely. The lower Bollinger lies almost 150 dollars lower. This is why it pays to watch more than one kind of chart because you can get insights from the widest angle possible. You can’t really trade it at this level but it gives a good hint of what might be coming. If the HUI has refused to break through the upper band then it will want to retrace a great deal of its rise to date. How long that takes is anyone’s guess but the writing is on the wall.
Yes, thanks, we see those technicals. The HUI should get back to 190 or so, prior to resumption of the uptrend. From that point, I expect gold around $1,450. Maybe higher. At that juncture, I will re-assess where it goes from there. Maybe higher, maybe much lower, but I don’t know my opinion until it gets there. As you say, the writing may be on the wall, but for me right now, I still feel there is more upside over time.
Hello Richard (is that Doc talking?).
No, sorry, way back when, when I started reading this report, I did not realize DOC’s name was Richard. I attempted to change it, but the site would not allow me to since the email was already registered. Then I saw DOC changed his.
Oh right….now I remember. Been a long time since you have posted. Hope all’s well. I really have doubts about the 1450 level btw but if we get there I am a convert and my bear days will be over. The charts still tell me we are going to deflate further in metals though. To new lows probably. People who don’t take chips off the table soon are going to really regret it some months down the road…in my opinion of course!
Yes Bird, all has been well, thank you for asking.
Hope all is well on your end too.
Platinum and Yen very interesting. Platinum I am not too keen on and until more evidence here, looks like it could drop quite a bit, at least to 950, but am definitely watching right here very closely for any potential change of character.
Ah, you remember, I have not posted in a long time.
My initial objective was HUI 250 and I sold a good portion of mining shares and kept certain others. I simply believe this move is not complete. It could take off tomorrow or in 3+ months, I do not know. Gold began rally in December when interest rates were negative in Europe and then continued to drop here in US after rate hike. The FED continues to jawbone this idea of raising rates; however, in December of 2015, rates were running higher at the time, with 5’s, 10’s, 30’s at 1.7%, 2.25%, 3% noting a 5-10 spread of 55-60bps. Now, we got 1.19%, 1.575%, 2.25% with a spread around 35bps and a 30YR yielding what the 10YR yielded six months ago!
I would not be too sure about the FED raising rates anytime soon, meaning 2016.
Exactly Richard. Very few people believe them anymore. And yet the Fed insists on keeping the idea on the table so another hike is probably coming eventually.
Look at it this another way though……just imagine for a second that Chairman Yellen came out and stated that rate hikes are no longer being considered, that the economy and globe cannot take the hit and that for an indeterminate period we would remain at the zero bound.
The markets would go nuts.
It might not even be predictable what would happen. And that’s why I think they keep talking up hikes but doing nothing because it preserves this aura of stability and implies the rate threat is always waiting in the wings.
To do otherwise would create havoc with bonds and equities. So they are trapped repeating the same old thing month in and month out even though its distasteful to them too.
Exactly. Well said. That was the same feeling I had in 2015 when they spent a good six or nine months talking up rates. They almost had to raise in December because if they didn’t the markets would understand how weak the FEDS perception of the economy was and the markets would have gone nuts back then, probably a major selloff.
. Gold HELD…September mourn….in a few hours
So put your hands up if you think that a significant market sell off (say 10% or more) would be positive for gold mining stocks and precious metals. I think the whole lot will decline together as bonds stage a big rise and the dollar hits near .99 but hey….that’s just me.