Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 9 Sep, 2016

Margin calls can take all the markets down in an instant

In the second editorial with Chris today we focus more on the big picture of the moves today. Seeing massive selling in treasuries around the world is a change from the complacency of bond investors over this past year. If we start to see margin calls in the US the equity market as well as many other markets will feel the pain.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Here is the interview with Charles Biderman that Chris refereed to in the interview.

Chris TempleCory Fleck

  1. On September 9, 2016 at 2:25 pm,
    CFS says:

    Why should anyone trust a capricious Fed?

  2. On September 9, 2016 at 2:30 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Gold up for the week…..

    • On September 9, 2016 at 4:23 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Morris Hubbartt @ 321gold…..Superb Engulfing Candlesticks…..

      • On September 9, 2016 at 4:27 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Good for gold and silver

      • On September 9, 2016 at 5:50 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Great point OOTB – Friday = Morris Hubbart update on 321 gold.

        Gold Stocks: Superb Engulfing Candlesticks
        Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
        Morris Hubbartt – posted Sep 9, 2016

        • On September 9, 2016 at 5:52 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold & Silver Bullion Video Analysis
          Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
          Morris Hubbartt – posted Sep 9, 2016

        • On September 9, 2016 at 5:57 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Friday on 321 Gold also typically means a new Adam Hamilton article comes out. I like to at least consider his opinion and review his charts. He’s a sharp guy overall.

          Gold Stocks’ Massive Correction
          Adam Hamilton – Sep 09, 2016

          • On September 10, 2016 at 6:56 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:


          • On September 10, 2016 at 12:13 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Buying low is never easy..A .Hamilton

          • On September 10, 2016 at 12:14 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Two great articles for “bull support”.

          • On September 10, 2016 at 12:17 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Both guys are must read….CCF…

          • On September 10, 2016 at 2:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed The Claw….from Moscow….

        • On September 9, 2016 at 6:01 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Lastly, Friday also means that Gary Wagner has put out a new weekend review. He goes through periods where he is spot on, and other periods where his method has his way off course. However, I’ve learned a lot about Elliot Wave and Japanese Candlesticks by watching his analysis over the last 7 years or so…. Some people hate him, or rip on him, but at least the guy is positive, professional, and polite. Just in case anyone wants to check out the video analysis:

          Rumors Drag Down Markets Going Into Weekend
          Gary Wagner – September 9, 2016 – 5:15pm

          • On September 10, 2016 at 7:01 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Those Japanese candlesticks made with Elliott’s Beeswax Are the best

          • On September 10, 2016 at 9:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            They’re the Bees Knees…..

          • On September 10, 2016 at 11:38 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            They are the buzz about town. ……..

          • On September 10, 2016 at 2:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bee Careful or you’ll be Turning Japanese….


  3. On September 9, 2016 at 2:44 pm,
    Jason Weishaupt says:

    Anyone play UVXY today!? WOW!! I only netted 1.7% on a $510 purchase but I was fun. I got in at 20.01 and 21.05 stopping out at 20.99. Sucka run up to 22.50 at close and 23 after hours! I am holding DSLV, DUST, and DWTI over the weekend. Tried to take 1/2 profits on DWTI but got stuck on a phone call.

    • On September 9, 2016 at 2:47 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, I trimmed a part of my UVXY today on this strength @ $21.43, as an escape hatch, because I was getting a little nervous earlier in the week. I left a buck per unit on the table by trimming too early, but did leave a small position in place in case we get more volatility at the beginning of next week.

      ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)
      $22.45 up +5.52 (+32.60% gain)
      At close: 4:00 PM EDT

      • On September 9, 2016 at 2:59 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        In the spirit of this daily editorial, part of the reason I sold part of the UVXY today was because I did have a margin call to cover with that sale, so in my mind UVXY just did it’s job and spiked on the volatility and it diversified my portfolio today. However, I only jump into it for small windows of time when things look frothy in the markets and too low on the VIX to ignore.

      • On September 9, 2016 at 3:08 pm,
        Chartster says:


        • On September 9, 2016 at 3:10 pm,
          Chartster says:

          RYOOF (post)

          • On September 9, 2016 at 3:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Most of the move was just the OTC playing catch up to the Canadian ticker. There have been a few people discussing this stock over at Tommy’s site, so I’ve been watching it closely.


  4. On September 9, 2016 at 2:44 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    I posted a more complete list of the out-performers in the miners on the other blog, but this one seems worthy of reposting:

    Rio Silver is the clear winner in the Silver space today up almost 664% !!!!!!

    Rio Silver Inc (RYOOF)
    $0.11 up $+0.10 (+663.89% Gain)

  5. On September 9, 2016 at 2:45 pm,
    Jason Weishaupt says:

    Be careful when buying high and selling higher!

  6. On September 9, 2016 at 3:08 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Cory and Chris,
    This was a timely discussion about the margin calls that are coming. On September 1st the derivative regulations changed where the banks and trading houses need to have the collateral 1 to 1 of the amount of the derivative they are trading. And that put an end to derivative trading, as they don’t have the collateral to underpin the paper. So, why did those regs happen now? What is the purpose, now?

    There is so much derivative paper tied up in metals and oil, it’s sick! And here is the ” what if “. What if oil and metals drop hard next week? The oil drop will cause junk bonds to tank hard… What about gold? What happens to the paper written using that collateral?

    Check, and checkmate. The can’t use paper to falsify the collateral positions that they don’t have. And less collateral to use to do anything. Game over!

    If oil falls hard Monday, ( or when it does )lookout belowwwww…. Junk bonds get clobbered which starts the snowball rolling… There are so many junk bonds pinned to false stock prices it’s stupid! Time for a nice cleansing of the system.

    Who knows, maybe by March we won’t be able to bitch about manipulation..?!?

  7. On September 9, 2016 at 3:31 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Something went seriously Wrongo in the Congo:

    Main border crossing for Congo copper exports closed as riots kill three
    by Reuters
    Friday, 9 September 2016

    • On September 9, 2016 at 3:35 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      It will be interesting to monitor what effect (if any) this will have on Ivanhoe Mines share price as some may get concerned about Copper mining in the Congo. It has been a rough jurisdiction to operate in for quite some time, but things had been improving the last few years. It seems most of the fuss was over the death of a money changer, that then turned into the death of 3 total, and rioting that stalled and burned trucks exporting Copper across the border. It’s a wacky world out there.

      • On September 9, 2016 at 3:38 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Sorry I misread that and it seems that other vehicles & buildings got burnt up so they were simply holding the copper trucks from going through that crossing.

        “Congo, Africa’s leading copper producer, mined nearly 1 million tonnes of the metal last year. Nearly all of the country’s copper exports pass through the Kasumbalesa crossing.”

        • On September 9, 2016 at 4:18 pm,
          LPG says:

          FWIW, there had been some skirmishes a few days ago already, and in that instance, share price didn’t dip.
          Full disclosure, I’m long

          • On September 9, 2016 at 4:28 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for the heads up LPG. That is good to hear. What made this one a bit different is that the Kasumbalesa crossing is how they get Copper out of the country.

            As you know I’m a fan of Ivanhoe mines also and have been posting about their progress since the end of last year. I’m betting on Robert Friedland to make their well endowed Copper and Zinc projects in the Congo a big-time go.

    • On September 9, 2016 at 4:02 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Copper North Mining Commences Drilling at Thor Copper-Gold Project
      VANCOUVER, BC–(Marketwired – September 09, 2016)

  8. On September 9, 2016 at 4:02 pm,
    LPG says:

    If the market starts to really reverse, all the institutions which have been selling puts lately to increase returns will get PROPERLY bamboozed.
    My 2cts.

  9. On September 9, 2016 at 4:14 pm,
    LPG says:

    Great thoughts from Chris.

    According to Zero, Jeff Gundlach also seem to think that 10yr yield may top 2% by year-end:“-big-big-moment-gundlach-warns-fed-may-surprise-markets

  10. On September 9, 2016 at 4:51 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    The tone of excitement by Cory and Chris is interesting. For months we’ve viewed markets with the thought that we should stay nimble. How did that work out for you in those conventional markets today. I’ve been betting against the general markets since July. No surprise where today went since the sheep have now realized it’s not really a game anymore. With that jump in the VIX, it will be no surprise if we’re down another 500 big ones on the Monday DOW.

  11. On September 9, 2016 at 8:34 pm,
    CFS says:
  12. On September 9, 2016 at 11:41 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Two thoughts:

    1. I think Chris is spot on about the egos and narcissism of some of these Fed people. They love being feted by journalists, going on TV and having everyone waiting on their every word… and being able to move the markets with a few short sentences.

    2. I listen to loads of commentators on the markets each week but the only guy who understands Europe and the Euro – his words repeatedly for months now “…the Euro is toast!” – is Chris.

    Europe is an economic basket-case. Merkel, Juncker & Co are seemingly only interested in some mass social experiment involving mass immigration of millions of people into Europe without a second thought to the cost involved. Meanwhile, millions of French, Poles, Spanish, Greeks, Romanians, etc, have flooded out of Europe into the UK as the UK is the only place with jobs.

    All these commentators on the US side of the Atlantic expecting the Euro to suddenly surge just don’t get it. The USD will have to be deliberately weakened by the Fed to get it lower against the Euro because Europe is…. toast.

  13. On September 10, 2016 at 12:08 am,
    Bob UK says:

    Shame that Rick Santelli guy did not let that Biderman guy talk more – he clearly had important, interesting things to say.