Wrapping up the market moves on Super Wednesday
On today’s market wrap we look at some of the biggest movers. Gold, US markets and oil all had good days on the back on the BOJ and Fed announcements. Let’s all not read too much into the daily moves on central bank days but the follow-through is what is important.
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Nice article.
Our friends over at Deutsche Bank are running this little puppy; short euro banks etf.
Could do well, until it doesn’t 🙂
I agree that “Round Two” will be even more serious than the first round.
The stockmarket and real things also increased in price during the Weimar Republic as the German economy was over-extended and collapsing. Do you think the laws of economics have changed that much?
Of course they have not changed “all that much” and that is very much the terrifying point!
Ok guys, longggg time listener here, but I hardly ever comment. I feel the need for some constructive criticism. Back in the old days I could come on here and listen to Doc, Gary, Temple and Rick. Always felt I learned something. Ok, Gary’s gone, I get it. He’s not coming back. Doc is down to one or two segments a week. Temple doesn’t do technicals. Rick is still ticking.
Here’s the bottom line fellas. I’m not learning stuff every day anymore. I own a financial services firm so I already get much of the info you’re passing along these days. I need more commentary regarding technical analysis like you used to do. If Gary is gone and Doc is semi retired you NEED to get some new daily regulars on the show to talk technicals. I repeat, you guys NEED to. It’s a shame the whole Gary/Avi thing caused gary to leave. Especially since Avi doesn’t even make it on the show once a quarter.
Cory, I think you may be discounting the potential devaluation of the USD in your forecasts on commodities
Counting All Discouraged/Displaced Workers, May 2016 Unemployment Rose to About 23.0%.
PUBLIC COMMENTARY ON UNEMPLOYMENT MEASUREMENT
June 8, 2016
The following material largely was excerpted from Regular Commentary No. 810 of June 5, 2016.
ALTERNATIVE UNEMPLOYMENT MEASUREMENT
Counting All Discouraged/Displaced Workers, May 2016 Unemployment Rose to About 23.0%. Discussed frequently in the regular ShadowStats Commentaries on monthly unemployment conditions, what removes headline-unemployment reporting from common experience and broad, underlying economic reality, simply is definitional. To be counted among the U.S. government’s headline unemployed (U.3), an individual has to have looked actively for work within the four weeks prior to the unemployment survey conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS). If the active search for work was in the last year, but not in the last four weeks, the individual is considered a “discouraged worker” by the BLS, and not counted in the headline labor force.
ShadowStats defines that group as “short-term discouraged workers,” as opposed to those who, after one year, no longer are counted as “discouraged” by the government. Instead, they enter the realm of “longterm discouraged workers,” those displaced by extraordinary economic conditions, including regional/local businesses activity affected negatively by trade agreements or by other factors shifting U.S. productive assets offshore, as defined and counted by ShadowStats (see the extended comments in the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Measure).
In the ongoing economic collapse into 2008 and 2009, and the non-recovery thereafter, the broad drop in the U.3 unemployment rate from its headline peak of 10.0% in 2009, to the May 2016 headline 4.7%, was due largely to the unemployed giving up looking for work (common in severe economic contractions and major economic displacements). Those giving up looking for work are redefined out of headline reporting and the labor force, as discouraged workers. The declines in the headline unemployment rate often reflect that, as opposed to unemployed individuals finding new and gainful employment, as was reflected in the headline May 2016 data.
As new discouraged workers move regularly from U.3 into U.6 unemployment accounting, those who have been “discouraged” for one year also are dropped from the U.6 measure. As a result, the headline U.6 measure has been declining along with headline U.3 for some time, but those being pushed out of U.6 still are estimated in the ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Measure, which has remained relatively steady, near its historic-high rate for the last couple of years.
continued….http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c810x.pdf
Markedtofuture,
I no longer trust ShadowStats unemployment rate. How can you have a 5% increase in GDP from the depths of the recession in 2009 (according to ShadowStats alternate GDP) and have many areas of the country that have had a noticeable improvement in the labor market in which about 10 million full-time jobs were added (yes, many of them lower paying jobs) and still have the unemployment rate stay at 23% for 8 years and not change? Does not make sense.
If you take the U-6 unemployment rate of 9.7% and add the 5 million of long-term discouraged workers that are no longer counted as being unemployed by the government, you get an unemployment rate of around 13%. So I think the unemployment rate is closer to 13% than 23%.
More 16-20 YR olds entering work force. There are More millienials than boomer now.
Alternate Unemployment Charts
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.
The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate for August 2016 is 23.0%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Thanks for the reply Markedtofuture but I do not believe that the SGS-estimated number of long-term discouraged workers is accurate. I do not believe that there are any where near 20 million adults, who are mostly between the ages of 18-65, who are AVAILABLE and ABLE to work but have not had a job in over one year nor are they even looking for a job even though they want a job. And that is about what you would need for ShadowStats to get a 23% unemployment rate. U-6 unemployment rate which is at 9.7% plus an estimated 20 million long-term discouraged workers. Way too high of an estimate today for long-term discouraged workers especially with the improvement of the labor market since the depths of the Great Recession of 2009. The government estimate of long-term discouraged workers is 5 million. Sounds more sounds more realistic than the ShadowStats estimate.
2016-09-20 06:17 ET – News Release
Mr. James Anderson reports
NULEGACY EXPANDS AVOCADO CARLIN-TYPE GOLD DEPOSIT
Goldmoney changes OTC ticker symbol
2016-09-21 07:47 ET – News Release
Mr. Josh Crumb reports
GOLDMONEY INC. ANNOUNCES OTC TICKER SYMBOL CHANGE TO “XAUMF”
Riverside Resources samples up to 1.47% Cu at Thor
2016-09-20 09:38 ET – News Release
Dr. John-Mark Staude reports
RIVERSIDE SAMPLES UP TO 1.47% COPPER AT THE THOR PORPHYRY COPPER PROJECT, SONORA, MEXICO AND BEGINS NEXT STAGE OF EXPLORATION
Gary savage
Thanks, I think Savage is right.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-21/irs-chief-requests-not-be-impeached-despite-admitting-he-misled-congress
IRS Head says don’t impeach me because it would be a disincentive to good guys.
What absolute BS! Don’t you realize “good guys” would never abuse the system for political gain, like YOU did.
That goes for Hillary, too. Jail time is needed to correct corruption.
Agree CFS,
One would think that supporters of Clinton would be considered guilty as well and people that donate money should actually be interrogated for supporting a criminal. But in this country, it doesn’t matter what you do, it is who you know.
Anyhow, as the economy grows darker, and social mood deteriorates more, more of this corruption will be focused on by the people and begin to take a front seat.
FYI & FWIW:
I am pleased to report that my reason for leaving has unexpectedly disappeared, so I will continue to participate as usual.
I sincerely appreciate those who voiced their support. I knew I had some support but I did not expect many of you to respond as decisively as you did. So thank you.
Good man Matthew. Order is restored!
to be perfectly honest, you are the one of the main reasons I come to this forum.
You have been the most accurate bar none with your calls since January.
First thing I do us hit ctrl-f and type in matthew to look for your posts.
My advice is completely ignore anyone who gets under your skin.
It is the same old same old. Back on the old kitco forum, rebel rousers chased away the likes of Richard Russel, Ted Butler. Ted Butler by the way had his clients buying silver at 4.50 in the year 2000.
I simply refuse to get into the trash talking anymore. When I was younger i had the energy. But now I realize it is a complete waste of effort. Wisdom has taught me, I will not change their point of view anyway.
Regardless, keep posting, you are a valuable asset.
Thank you Dave and thanks again Jerry, Vortex, Pete, GH, DT, Irish Tony and everyone else who’s been supportive, I did see all the comments yesterday and the day before.
Let’s make the most of this bull market, it’s going to be a big one.
Ditto on making the most…
Welcome home mate 🙂
Thanks Tad.
Matthew I too find you to be one of the more valuable posters.
Super…glad to hear that….makes my day, ….heck makes my week.
Thanks Big OWL
Now…if we could only get our gov’t back..
Oh Shad….Irish TONY said get your arse back here…. 🙂
See below – I must have missed a key announcement over the last 2 days. If the coast is really clear, then that would change things for the better for the blog.
Phew!!! Welcome home mang!
Thanks Confused!
What a relief, Matthew!
Matthew, glad to hear it. Your contributions to this blog, as well as Excelsior’s and LPG’s is what keeps me coming back and reading.
Thanks Sovereign, I appreciate that.
Good news,Matthew
Matthew….As I always say , Never let the bastards get to you. Welcome back.
Matthew, your presence is most welcomed on this site as a person that adds information.
Thank you CFS, I appreciate that.
+1
Al Korelin, I have to disagree with your comment where you say “we basically agreed pretty well and the conclusions we came to”
Corey Fleck clearly wrong on his rate hike call.
Chris Temple left impression fed was going to hike.
Richard Postma’s comments were construed by me as the fed was going to hike.
Al Korelin correct – said fed will NOT raise rates
George Gero left impression fed would NOT raise rates
Jeffery Christian left impression fed would NOT raise rates.
So in the end half got it right.
As for me, I clearly believed the Fischer cr@pola and thought they would raise by 1/4
But I did not change my asset allocation and was willing to take the drawdown.
So anyways…….
+1
Matthew, welcome back you were missed buddy, now we need to get Excelsior back in the loop, I’m sure that will happen today. DT
+1
Yeah… hope so.
+2
+3
I must have missed what happened. Was there a big announcement?
Confused – I am not sure if you saw my continued review of K92 Mining that we’ve been discussing. There was an updated I posted on Monday in the Exeter Resources blog, but it was important to note that the 200 day EMA did in fact hold at $1.08 as predicted, and the stock just gapped up over the 34 day EMA which is significant.
Here’s the repost so you can see the rationale and the chart:
_________________________________________________________________________
—-> On September 20, 2016 at 9:18 am,
Excelsior says:
P.S. – I just remembered to check in on KNT (K92) That we discussed last Thur/Frid.
—-> On September 16, 2016 at 7:47 am,
Excelsior says:
“So for KNT it is at next support at the 200 day EMA @ $1.08. K92 will still need to prove itself by breaking above the 34 day EMA to the upside when it does bounce and go back up to test that next time.”
“As a clarification I was using the 200 day EMA at $1.08, but after reading his [Matthew’s] response more carefully he was discussing the 200 day SMA at $.93. Both are levels worth considering for where support will come in, but first stop is $1.08.”
______________________________
So far so good with K92 bouncing as expected at the 200 day EMA. Not surprisingly, KNT went down and tagged $1.08 and bounced, but it hasn’t had a ton of conviction. I’d get more bullish if it can pierce through the 34 day EMA resistance.
I included all 3 moving averages (34, 200 EMA, 200 SMA) for illustrative purposes.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p10419731679
Thanks Matthew, for regaining focus on this site. I hope Ex comes back also. There has been way too many posts that are drama and not ideas or thoughts.
Thanks Dan, I don’t see why Ex would stay away now that Cory has dealt with the situation.
I may have missed what happened. How has the situation been dealt with?
I think tweety has been sent to an island without wifi
Oh. That would change things in a constructive way then. I wondered why Matthew was back.
If the coast is really clear, then that would be a different scenario for the blog moving forward.
Ex, the coast IS clear. 🙂
Wow. Refreshing.
I had just posted our first big chat between you, and Jerry and I on Doc’s blog yesterday as a final tribute to you two characters, and felt like a chapter had wrapped up in my life.
Thanks Dan, calgary. I agree there was too much drama lately, and apologized on Tuesday’s Doc editorial for the part I played, but it needed to be escalated to the attention of Big Al & Cory.
If people went back and looked at the weekend show now, the drama was removed by Cory, and the remaining 400+ posts are cram-packed with investing ideas. Despite the drama, it really was one of the best weekend shows for content on the miners in quite some time.
As a refresher – we had one the most compelling Zinc threads on record, with dozens of suggestions, tons of video corporate presentations from Beaver creek, a number of mining stocks were individually reviewed by different contributors with the benefits/risks, there were dozens of editorials and interviews posted from various publications and experts, there was a small Uranium news thread, and a whole thread on Prospect Generator companies.
That was more information on the Weekend show than we normally get in several days weekday threads combined. If people missed those, then there is no harm in going back and revisiting the weekend show, as it took a lot of effort from everyone to post all that content, and I seriously doubt most digested all of it.
On Monday in the Exeter Resources editorial, I included about 30 post from various companies that were packed with many many investing ideas and thoughts. Again, I seriously doubt everyone has digested all that content either.
My reason for participating has always been to share good investing ideas.
Cheers!
You know, Ex, consciously or not, Bird purposely tried to anger those he wished to discredit. I’ve had enough bad calls in my past that he could have put in the effort to use my actual words to make some points rather than twisting them or outright making things up. Instead, he consistently lied and slandered in order to (attempt to) win a debate. Not surprisingly, he also routinely lied when he repeatedly revised his own record for the better.
In addition to that, I’ve never seen a more brazen pretender on this or any other financial site.
He was so diabolical that I thought he was a team of people.
It’s a relief to know that I wasn’t the only one who could see it – I often really wondered!
Agreed Matthew. It was the lying and twisting of info and attacks that really got to me. I was just done with it since nobody was halting his advances, but finally there is some order on the blog again…. for now 🙂
Dan, calgary – I often wandered that same thing….. (LEGION).
Now I want to address one of Birdman’s deleted comments. He asserted that threatening to leave was manipulative and amounted to blackmail and Bob Moriarty agreed.
First of all, I did not threaten to leave (as Bird had several times in the past), I did leave. There’s a difference.
Second, it is wrong and more than a little “drama-queenie” to call it blackmail even if leaving WAS threatened. It should be obvious why:
black·mail (blăk′māl′)
n.
1.
a. Extortion of money or something else of value from a person by the threat of exposing a criminal act or discreditable information.
b. Something of value, especially money, extorted in this manner: refused to pay blackmail.
Third, ultimatums can be righteous. Would it be wrong to send Heinze a note to inform them that you will not buy their ketchup unless they offer it with out high fructose corn syrup? Of course not, and legitimate businesses APPRECIATE such feedback about their customers preferences. THAT is how this situation at KER should be viewed. Market preferences were expressed and addressed. There is no purer form of democracy.
The KER label can now proudly state: “Now with no Birdman!”
Maybe I need to buy a bottle of champagne tonight ! 🙂
Bubbly time…..
Again Alex Merk was right. I imaging he might know a bit more that most folks on the site about U.S.D VS Euro trades. I would like to have him on the show in 2 or 3 weeks to see what he thinks about the USD’s next move.
I agree about Axel and have been in his corner on the euro for quite awhile. He’s a smart guy.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p17568315702&a=477637674
The loonie is trying to get a move higher going and just flipped the parabolic SAR to long…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p89150774743&a=477198301
Edit: wow what was I smoking on that last one;}
Yet again Alex Merk was right. I imagine he knows a bit more than most folks how to trade the U.S.D/Euro. I hope Korelin has him back in a few weeks to predict the USD’s next move. Maybe recent Russian+Chinese treasury dumping is a macro play on the dollar?
Confused:
If you have a link for your treasury data I would appreciate it.
The Data I have shows the Russians buying 6.1B.
The largest sellers according to my data
1. China -50B
2.Japan -45.4B
3. Mexico -37.6B
John,
It was a question. I guess my “recent” comment was way off….refering to the 192 Billion sold off in the first six months of the year. Are you getting you numbers off the U.S treasury department?
Confused:
The data came from treasury.gov.
Here is the link.
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
John,
thanks!
The silver-gold ratio is once again above the 200 week SMA and EMA and the 20 week SMA is above the 150 week SMA for the first time in over four years.
This picture bodes very well for the miners:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=22&id=p57520014195
The Venture Composite Index has been capped by the 200 week MA for the last two months:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p68507303399&a=370749134
Once through that level, I think the index will make its way to 1150+
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&id=p69056738362&a=379558732
Novo just released some good news, the stock was getting rocked this morning but not for long. http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aNVO-2408536&symbol=NVO®ion=C
Looks like it’s still dropping to me.
OFF TOPIC:
If you don’t believe, The Big Zero is a Marxist Traitor, out to destroy America, as we know it, you have not read:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/20/address-president-obama-71st-session-united-nations-general-assembly
How else could one describe a one-world government believer, other than a traitor to his country, out to destroy that country’s freedoms.
One world government will work no better than the EU. And we all know how well that works.
Matthew, welcome back where you belong. Did you hear Rick Ackerman talk about Barsele BRSLF yesterday? Would you buy a stock that is up 20-fold since jan? I think I’d rather buy Auryn(which I don’t own yet) or NSRPF(which I do).
Thank you, Bonzo. Except for very special situations, I would have a very hard time buying a stock that is up 20x when there are still bargains to be had.
Agreed. And AEM has 55% of Barsele’s deposit with the right to go to 70%, so I’ll take part with my AEM shares.
Smart.
The GSCI Commodity Index looks very good here and is likely on its way to completing a big, bullish reverse head and shoulders bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25211150204&a=380003501
WOW NOVO was on sale for a few minutes this morning…went down %15.5 to $1.54 CND on the TSX then rocketed back up to $1.78. I wonder what happened? Anyway the new release soom positive at first blush… .01-200 grams per tonne on their Talga Talga property.
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6668430050129399&qm_symbol=NVO
Bloomberg reports:
Russia picked up 700,000 oz or 21.77 tonnes of gold last month, its largest monthly increase this year.
(From Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)
Switzerland shipped gold to London: 84.6 tonnes. Probably indicating London is now out of gold and needs replenishment from Switzerland. Indications have been that London was pretty much out of silver almost two weeks ago.
VAL-D’OR, QUEBEC–(Marketwired – Sept. 22, 2016) – Metanor Resources Inc. (“Metanor”) (TSX VENTURE:MTO) is pleased to present the highlights from the positive preliminary economic assessment study (PEA) completed by GoldMinds Geoservices Inc. on its Barry gold project (Mining Lease BM number 886) which is located 100 km east of Lebel sur Quévillon and 115 km south of the Bachelor Mine in Quebec.
Highlights of PEA Barry (*) all in CAD dollars, include:
Net present value (NPV) before taxes (at 6%) of $53.5 million;
Internal rate of return (IRR) before taxes of 198%;
NPV after taxes (at 6%) of $25.9 million;
IRR after taxes of 94%;
Capital startup of $8.5 million;
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-21/ignore-fed-something-massive-brewing-europes-banks