A technical outlook on the US Dollar, Copper, and Pretium Resources
Rick kicks off this Friday with a look at a couple sectors and a resources coming moving through the development stage. We also have a chat about the difference in formations of the runs we have seen your to date in gold vs. copper. Here are the charts we look at today:
- USD,
- Copper,
- Pretium Resources – PVG & TSX:PVG
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click here to visit Rick’s site and check out his technical services.
Also please remember to email me your questions on other stocks you would like Rick to look at – fleck[at]kereport.com.
Did you mean Nevsun?
Yes, thank you – I meant Nevsun
If I am wrong about this sorry but I believe nevsun right now is more of a zinc play.
I believe they are transitioning from more Copper focused over to the Zinc portions of their assets, but it is both. They just added the Zinc flotation circuit. There are also still large amounts of Gold and Silver at Bisha as well.
Keep in mind that as they expand the property in Serbia it will make them a multi-mine and multi-jurisdiction company.
On the Denver Gold Forum – they listed them as Copper, but lately they have been moving into the Zinc portion of the asset.
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf16/company-webcast/NSU:CN/
Don’t forget MUX
Mcewen started out as silver, but recently has gold and lots of copper.
And is cash flow positive.
MUX has a deposit in Argentina w/ 20 billion pounds of copper.
NGD produces lot of copper as well as gold.
I do not think Rick’s 1.86 target for copper will be reached but those who’d like to bet against it might consider doing so above 2.23…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=22&id=p17711947786&a=451232211
Xriva – I have a number of other good copper ideas, but I’m swamped today, so I may save those for this evening or this weekend.
I thought it may be nice to quickly mention the copper miners ETF if you want to spread the risk around. You can also follow up on some of these companies individually, but you can see how they are ranked by weighting (shows their conviction in each)
Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)
Fund Holdings Data as of 09/22/2016
% of Net Assets Name
8.44 TECK RESOURCES LTD-CLS B
6.359 FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LT
5.762 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
5.29 LUNDIN MINING CORP
5.136 GLENCORE PLC
4.914 OZ MINERALS LTD
4.851 HUDBAY MINERALS INC
4.785 KAZ MINERALS PLC
4.698 TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES
4.478 IMPERIAL METALS CORP
4.418 KGHM POLSKA MIEDZ SA
4.302 SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL
4.222 ANTOFAGASTA PLC
4.209 FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
4.145 GRUPO MEXICO SAB DE CV-SE
4.14 NEVSUN RESOURCES LTD
4.016 CAPSTONE MINING CORP
3.951 JIANGXI COPPER CO LTD-H
3.916 SOUTHERN COPPER CORP
3.588 ALTIUS MINERALS CORPORATI
3.227 NETMIND FINANCIAL HOLDING
0.969 CUDECO LIMITED
0.008 CASH
Global Copper Inventory Stabilizes, Supports Prices
By Mark O’Hara | Sep 22, 2016
once again gold cannot take out $1340
I don’t care what the charts “say”
this is the key level, this is the battle, the longer it goes the harder it gets
Gold: D
Silver: F
So,if Gold can not take out that level ,James
GO SHORT,
I agree Cory,always great to hear Mr Rick “Accurateman” and his technical analysis, Top notch.
Xriva,Long term, i think both,but if i had to select one of those,i say IVN.
Here’s an interesting copper happening that surprised me coming from the Fed: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-proposes-to-restrict-bank-involvement-with-physical-commodities-2016-09-23
It is not surprising that we tend to believe what is reported in newspapers and financial magazines.
Permit me to burst a bubble of belief.
I knew fairly well two reporters that write for marketwatch. (At least I did before they moved to New York.). They are not financial gurus by a long shot, but language/literature majors with reasonable writing skills. Had they had better financial/personal sales skills they might have been stockbrokers earning a heck of a lot more money than as newspaper/magazine writers.
Most of the stories they report/write about have some basis in fact, but they have a production requirement and deadlines. Neither of these constraints is conducive to the full truth and completeness of any story. I.e. Never fully believe any story, even if printed in black and white, until it is independently verifiable. That is even more true for “info” garnered over the Internet.
I mentioned oil and the markets should go down today. Oil should correct to near 44.20. Iran is not going to agree on a cap until they reach their normal production level. Bought back some GDX but it is doing poorly compared to gold.
We got to 44.23 which was the target I had yesterday. It is bouncing sharply from there. I added some USO.
Agreed about Iran not stopping until they get to their normal production level.
They were in the penalty box for so long, that now the gloves are off and they are pumping…
Technical analysis is a tool,(everybody can paint a picture,but the result will be different)depending on who you give the tool to,the results will be different.
“If you give a scalpel to a surgent,he will perform miracles, if you give the scalpel to me, you will end up with a lot of dead bodies”
Quote from this video,about the Andrews pitchfork.
There is a lot of bad charting to bee found on the internet.
Luckily we have some chart wizards near by.
The Andrews Pitchfork, how it came to be and where it is headed next…
Sorry,old link.
More archived and live presentations.
For those that enjoyed the Beaver Creek presentations, may I remind you that the Denver Gold Forum Conference is currently underway and presentations may be found at:
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf16/archived-presentation-stream-2016/webcast-live-stream/
ENJOY….
Yes, I picked up some Beaver Creek yesterday. Had another stink bid in today, but it bounced.
Here is a list format from the Denver Gold Forum. All the webcasts are up today if you just click on the word “Presenting” or “Fireside chat”.
Enjoy!
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf16/participating-companies/
E.g. Americas Silver Corp
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf16/archived-presentation-stream-2016/webcast-live-stream/
Here is a hotlink that will take you right into the Americas Silver Corp presentation:
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf16/company-webcast/USA:CN/
Apparently neither I or my iPad is smart enough to copy the exact broadcast material, but just click on the archive button….
I recommend listening to FSM at the Denver Gold conf.
Pete, I would never recommend shorting gold. In 17 years in the gold market I never shorted it.
But we need to take out $1340 and break out of this range.
I firmly believe if we do gold could move up faster than most people think.
But until then it is just hoping and wishing and praying…
I’m waiting for the great leap forward…
I am not that smart, that i would try to short gold in a bull market?
I will leave the shorting to the smart guys,James.
There are some key levels to watch,lets see how it plays out.
I do not hope and pray so much,just trying to find something else than watching my core miners do their thing.
Uranium is interesting.
EU Collapse on Schedule
Merkel admitted that the European Union is in a “critical situation” as the EU leaders met in Slovakia. I greatly appreciate all the emails asking why I do not go to Europe to push our solution to save the continent. But what you have to understand is we will ONLY get a call when there is blood on the streets and there is absolutely no other choice. I am not sure we could do much at that late stage in the game. Typically, you have to just capitulate in order to reverse the trend.
Hey Cory,
Can you guys bring Ronald Peter-Stoferle of Incrementum AG on your weekend show please? He’s an astute guy and would like to hear what he has to say about recent rate hike and november election. Thank you.
I meant to say, “no rate hike” lol
Pete, I not convinced we are in a bull market.
Until that trend line is broken we have to assume it is still a bear market.
I was bullish all year, but I am reserving final judgement until I get the confirmation I am looking for.
Right now the fed bounce didn’t seem to last very long
either this is a) profit taking or b) confidence is starting to fail
in which case it is no longer about hiking or not…
people are realizing the emperor has no clothes – this could sink all assets
It looks like the commodities markets are about to go back to “true fundamentals”, as the HFT machines are about to get “turned OFF!
I am 88.8 % convinced,James.
Interesting reading on 888.
I firmly believe that the number 8 has been chosen by God to emphasize to us about the infiniteness of God, and the veracity of the Trinity.
The number 8 is like the mathematical symbol for infinity (∞) in a vertical position. From Webster’s Third New International Dictionary, infinity means the quality of being infinite. And being infinite means being without limits of any kind, having no end, having no limit in power, capacity, knowledge, or excellence: immeasurable or inconceivably great; boundless, vast, immense, endless, inexhaustible, not finite: extending or lying beyond any preassigned value however large.
And this is what God is. He is infinite. He is the Alpha and the Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last. He is The Infinite. Immeasurably grand, exceedingly great, boundless.
The number of Jesus is composed of three 8s. This is as if to emphasize that Jesus is infinite, that Jesus is God. The number 8 is repeated three times which means very truly. Very truly, He is infinite. Infinity. Infinity. Infinity.
Yes, or, perhaps, infinity cubed.
What is God? Length, Breadth, Height, and Depth
http://locusiste.org/blog/2015/06/what-is-god-length-breadth-height-and-depth/
All is number
I never realized there was such an avoidance of beans with the Pythagoreans:
“To avoid that they not only avoided meat, but beans as well. Beans were so avoided that Pythagoreans were not even allowed to touch beans.”
“Bean fear was simple, they believed that beans held the souls of the dead, those who had yet to be reincarnated. ”
Interesting. Notice that the Beano link had 666, in contrast to the 888 discussed above.
Here’s what I’ve learned today. Stay the hell away from beans……..
8 is the luckiest number in China which is why their summer Olympics started on 8-8-08.
And my hero, Yogi Berra, wore number 8 and won more World Series than any player in history.
Yup, it’s gr8 m8 😉
Damn str8
lol
Matthew knows his numbers…… 🙂
8 represents the ,”new beginning” ,which represents Jesus.
Matthew,
I was also cought of guard by the capital raise by Energy fuels,i bought EFR.TO in the 2,60-2.80 range,so i am flat/underwater,sold some on the rips.
How low can it go,i know stocks can go to 0,but im thinking that we are Close to the bottom in Energy fuels.
Worst case scenario it could go to 1.00,but im thinking more likely 1,80-2,00.?
Pete, it just dropped about 30% due to dilution of less than 20% because the offering was done at $1.80 — a $1.20 below market. Adding some juice to the selloff was the letter to shareholders yesterday that began with talk about the uranium market being oversupplied.
On the plus side…
-Selloff volume was substantial enough to suggest that fear/panic might have been great enough to exhaust the sellers.
-Investor interest in the company is substantial and the company now has an extra $15M but trades for more than $50M less than it did two weeks ago.
So, I agree with you and wonder if it will even reach the offering price of $1.80.
Based on the weekly chart, I would be terribly surprised if $2.00 holds:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFR.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p57955719057&a=478585300
I have no exposure to EFR, btw.
Oops: “I would NOT be terribly surprised if $2.00 holds”
If it doesn’t I’m going to have to put on my Precious Metals depends just to trade in the Uranium stocks.
Pete – I was writing you on yesteday’s blog saying that the capital raise caught me off-guard in Energy Fuels.
I agree with Matthew’s assessment that the offering was done at such a low level, and then they put out a bearish sounding letter to shareholders about the macro picture in Uranium. It was a 1-2 punch….. ouch!
Oh well, I ‘m averaging down into these prices, but for the longer term, Energy Fuels is the leading US based Uranium company and they’ll do just fine. I still expect their stock to get up in the $10-$20 per share zone in the next 3-4 years.
Yes,thats why i said I was “also” cought of guard by the capital raise by Energy fuels,
Thank you,Excelsior
Yes, this recent plunge was unexpected, but longer term I see Energy Fuels as one of the most under-rated companies in the Uranium space.
For goodness sake, they are the largest US based producer, with 2 In-situ mines, and the hardrock mines, the mill, and so many other projects in their pipeline it is crazy. I have owned 3 different companies that they acquired (4 if you count the US based assets they split off of Denison). Energy fuels like the Cameco “mini-me” and like have 4-5 companies in one, yet there are explorers trading near them in share price and valuation. When the larger investing community finally comes down and evaluates the Uranium mining and production marketplace, I expect a massive re-rating in Energy Fuels. Like I said, I’m holding my nose and continuing to buy more, and if feels very much like what it was like in Dec of 2015 and Jan of 2016 buying Silver & Gold miners.
Thank you,Matthew i am nibbling all the way down from here.
That’s what I would do.
I am as well Pete. To me it is one of the last places left to find insane undervaluation.
Yes absolutely Excelsior,,what we don¨t need right now is a decade long flat period in uranium,i dont want to be that early.
http://img.wallpaperfolder.com/f/53E9A1251F12/scorched-desert-almost-martian-landscape.jpg
Ha! That is how it has felt the last 2 years. Again, I’ve been forced to trade in and out of them, because just holding would be a losing proposition. Luckily all the cross-training and strategies that worked in the Precious Metals bear markets, still work overall in the uranium miners. Normally the technical indicators being in overbought or oversold territories with them are in the normal ranges to expect turns.
I still expect some of my largest trading gains to come from both Resource and Energy stocks, and in the energy sector, Nuclear isn’t going anywhere. In fact it is quite compatible with the Renewable Energy initiatives.
The Nordic experience in nuclear power
08 September 2016
“There is a widespread myth that nuclear and renewables are somehow mutually exclusive options. This is far from reality. While the Nordic countries (especially Sweden and Norway) are blessed with an abundance of hydropower resources, they have had to rely on other energy sources when it became apparent that hydropower alone couldn’t satisfy the region’s growing electricity needs. Finland and Sweden decided to meet growing demand with nuclear power while Denmark became a global pioneer in wind power.”
“Today, almost 90% of the electricity produced in the Nordics (including Estonia) comes from CO2-free sources…..”
“The starting point for any country that wants to include nuclear energy in its generation mix is to require a political and ‘social’ operating licence for utilities running nuclear plants and facilities.
Political licence means stringent but transparent policies and technical frameworks that guarantee the whole sector operates with the utmost respect for nuclear safety.”
“When safety is the number one priority for the plant operator it tends to lead to higher performance from a business perspective, as safety becomes an integrated part of plant operations. The strength of this approach is evident from the historical capacity factor of the Finnish nuclear fleet which is one of the highest in the world – over 90%…..”
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/V-The-Nordic-experience-in-nuclear-power-08091601.html
The world’s use of nuclear power is set to rise, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in its latest forecast on Friday.
09.23.2016
https://m.sputniknews.com/world/20160923/1045633722/iaea-nuclear-power-forecast.html
SNC-Lavalin inks deal with 2 Chinese firms to build Candu nuclear reactors
Deal will see Candu technology used to build reactors in China
CBC News Posted: Sep 22, 2016
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snc-lavalin-nuclear-reactors-1.3774385
A nice graphic on those new Candu Reactors:
http://www.snclavalin.com/en/files/documents/publications/candu-infographics-afcr_en.pdf
Hinkley Point: UK Approves Nuclear Plant Deal
15 September 2016
Fifth Japanese power reactor restarted
12 August 2016
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Fifth-Japanese-power-reactor-restarted-1208164.html
Greenwashing after the Phase-Out
German ‘Energy Revolution’ Depends on Nuclear Imports
Germany’s decision to phase out its nuclear power plants by 2022 has rapidly transformed it from power exporter to importer. Despite Berlin’s pledge to move away from nuclear, the country is now merely buying atomic energy from neighbors like the Czech Republic and France.
By Laura Gitschier and Alexander Neubacher
Top 10 Nuclear Generating Countries
World Nuclear Generation and Capacity – Data is from total 444 Reactors
Nuclear Units Under Construction Worldwide – Total (63)
Uranium Mining in the United States
Kristen Moran • September 13, 2016
“The US may be ninth in world production of uranium, but many US-based companies are conducting exploration of uranium deposits. Here’s an overview of uranium mining in the US.”
“The US has been steadily increasing its domestic uranium output in recent years, though the country saw a draw in production last year. It came in ninth place in the top uranium-producing countries of 2015, producing 1,256 tonnes of uranium. Still, the increase in production in recent years makes sense considering the US is the world’s largest generator and consumer of nuclear power.
Most production in the United States has been from Wyoming and New Mexico with known resources estimated to total 167,000 tonnes in Wyoming and 155,000 tonnes in New Mexico. Arizona, Utah and Colorado each have around 50,000 tonnes and Texas has about 2,000 tonnes of uranium resources. With that in mind, here’s a look at a number of uranium companies operating in the US….”
Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ)
Cameco is the US’s largest uranium producer. It has two uranium mines in operation: the Smith Ranch-Highland mine in Wyoming’s Powder River basin and the Crow Butte mine in Nebraska, both of which are in-situ recovery mines. In 2014, the annual production at the Smith Ranch-Highland mine, which is the largest US producer, was 2.1 million pounds of U3O8; during the same period, Crow Butte produced 600,000 pounds of U3O8.
Uranium Resources (NASDAQ:URRE)
Despite being focused on its Turkish properties following a 205 merger with Anatolia Energy, Uranium Resources also holds about 212,000 acres of uranium mineral holdings in Texas and New Mexico. In Texas, there are the Kingsville Dome and Rosita projects; the company had a third mine called Vasquez, which produced 590,200 pounds of uranium from 2004 to 2008 until the deposit was depleted.
Uranium Resources also has five exploration projects in South Texas—Alta Mesa Este, Sejita Dome, Butler Ranch, Jack Pump and Nell. In New Mexico, the company has multiple properties including Churchrock/Mancos, Crowpoint, Nose Rock, West Largo/Ambrosia Lake, Cebolleta (Cibola project) and Juan Tafoya (Cibola project).
In addition to its uranium projects and properties, Uranium Resources announced in August that it had acquired its first lithium property in Nevada.
Uranium Energy (NYSEMKT:UEC)
Uranium Energy is also focused on Texas, with its Palangana mine operating in the state since 2010. The company also holds the Burke Hollow ISR project as well as the fully operational Hobson processing plant.
In May 2015, the company received permits for the planned expansion at Palangana and made further advancements in the development of Burke Hollow. The company also owns the right to quite a few other operations in Texas including the Goliad ISR project, the Salvo project, and the Nichols and Longhorn projects.
Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR)
Energy Fuels is the largest supplier of uranium in the US and the owner of the White Mesa Mill, the only fully-licensed and operating conventional uranium mill located in the US. The company has various uranium properties in the US, including the Roca Honda project in New Mexico, Sheep Mountain in Wyoming, the Wate project, and the Canyon Mine in Arizona, and Henry Mountains, La Sal and Daneros, all located in Utah.
The company also acquired Uranerz and all its assets in June 2015, including the Nichols Ranch ISR mine and plant in Wyoming. The company increased its output at Nichols Ranch a month later, boosting total uranium production there by 25 percent after commencing production at the fifth header house at the facility.
On June 17, 2016, Energy Fuels announced the completed acquisition of Mesteña Uranium, which effectively added the third US production centre to its portfolio. At full capacity, Mesteña is capable of producing 1.5 million pounds of uranium per year.
In September, the company announced its operational update and production guidance for 2017, with a goal to become the largest uranium producer in the United States.
Western Uranium (TSXV:WUC)
With a tolling agreement in place with Energy Fuels’ White Mesa mill, Western Uranium is a near-term uranium and vanadium producer. Through acquisition of a significant portfolio of uranium projects in Utah and Colorado from both Energy Fuels and Black Range Minerals, the company holds the second largest uranium resource in the US after Energy Fuels with 100 million pounds of compliant uranium resources.
That said, Western Uranium is advancing the Sunday Mine Complex located in Western Colorado. Western Uranium is targeting production in Q4 2016 and will also starting construction of the Piñon Ridge Mill during the latter half of the year.
Ur-Energy (TSX:URE)
Ur-Energy holds uranium projects in the Wyoming, Lost Creek and Shirley Basin.
In May 2015, the company announced a new and increased mineral estimate for Lost Creek, adding 2.308 million pounds of uranium, averaging 0.058 percent U3O8 which represented a 95 percent increase. The Lost Creek project, which has been producing since 2013, hit a major milestone recently when it shipped out its one millionth pound of uranium in the second quarter.
In January, the company provided an update to their preliminary economic assessment, in which it highlighted that the mine life for the Lost Creek project has been extended to 2031. And, then in June, the company announced that the Lost Creek project is projected to produce between 600,000 and 700,000 pounds of uranium in 2016. Ur-Energy has term contracts committing roughly 3.1 million pounds between 2016 and 2021, averaging $49.81 per pound.
Ur-Energy also owns the rights to two other uranium projects in Wyoming, the Lost Soldier project and the Lucky Mc mine site.
Peninsula Energy (ASX:PEN)
One of the more recent uranium producers to the US uranium space is an Australian-based company that owns the Lance projects in Wyoming. The Lance projects, which have a current resource of 53.7 million pounds of U3O8 with the potential for more, started producing uranium in December 2015.
Peninsula currently has five sales contracts set up, which were made for prices higher than the current uranium spot price. The company has 7.9 million pounds of uranium slated for delivery to major utilities in the United States. According to a March 2016 press release, projected revenue for the long-term contracts now exceeds $440 million.
As of July 12, 2016, uranium production at Peninsula’s Lance Projects is steadily increasing. During the quarter ending June 30, 2016, 28,858 pounds of uranium were extracted from the project, which is an increase of roughly 20,000 pounds extracted during the previous quarter.
Great articles,Excelsior,thanks
You got my wheels going on Uranium, and I couldn’t stop…… 🙂
Thanks Pete
If copper were to touch $1.86, then which stocks do you like for copper – Nesun or Ivanhoe ?