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Gold down, US Dollar up – Here’s whats important

Cory
October 4, 2016

This morning with Chris Temple we cover the largest movers in the markets – gold and USD. Gold has broken the $1,300 level and sellers are dominating the market. We have been saying the breakdown would happen in gold and now we need to focus on where the drop will stop.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click here to visit Chris’s website – The National Investor.

Discussion
94 Comments
    b
    Oct 04, 2016 04:30 AM

    bird mentioned awhile back gold could drop as far as 1200. maybe lower?
    lets see what doc has to say at 1275

      Oct 04, 2016 04:05 AM

      Doc & Cory had a great conversation and forecast yesterday. Doc mentioned that he saw $1308, $1300 and $1275 falling in Gold and we are at $1269.90-$1270.90 at present.

      Doc saw the case in his technical analysis for a stronger dollar at is is up $.45 to $96.21.

      Great call Doc!

      Doc saw that the Dollar

        Oct 04, 2016 04:08 AM

        Excelsior,

        I posted a question to you in the first podcast yesterday, the one with 31 follow ups. I would like to hear your opinion about plutonium cleanup deal and possible impact to the uranium supply from Russia and Kazakhstan. Can you take a look and offer some advice? I have bought some more ur energy this morning.

          Oct 04, 2016 04:17 PM

          Hi Dragonite. Sorry about that – I didn’t even see that entire blog from yesterday.
          (Matthew – Now I realize why I hadn’t seen your similar post about desperate Uranium miners)

          Dragonite – I believe you are referring to this article that was released yesterday in the New York Times about Russia pulling out of the continuing disarming of nuclear weapons to convert it into nuclear fuel instead:

          Vladimir Putin Exits Nuclear Security Pact, Citing ‘Hostile Actions’ by U.S.
          By ANDREW E. KRAMEROCT. 3, 2016

          http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/04/world/europe/russia-plutonium-nuclear-treaty.html?_r=0

          _________________________________________________________________________

          It’s funny because I also debated posting this article yesterday when I saw it hit over at CEO in the Uranium room, but figured nobody really cared about it.

          As for the effects it may have on the Uranium sector demand, it can only help.

          There as a deal where the US sourced fuel from Russian warhead called “Megatons for Megawatts” that was supposed have concluded in 2013. Many pundits following the Uranium price felt that once that program ended that it would be very constructive for Uranium prices.

          Heres the problem – The US and Russia never stopped, and the US government has continued to dump Uranium into the spot market all through 2014, 2015, and some in 2016 at whatever price they could get for it, and this has been a major headwind towards pricing, and thus Uranium mining, jobs, and industry growth. They said they stopped, but they didn’t, and it really killed the entire industry the last few years. It’s hard to cure stupid – but what do you expect from world governments that don’t understand business.

          In 2013 the “supposed ending” of Megatons for Megwatts set up an expectation from the miners that demand would start creeping up. However, since they lied and just kept dumping Uranium into the markets on the cheap, then it set up rivaling expectations from utility companies that the prices in Uranium would just stay down for the foreseeable future.

          Marin Katusa also raised this same point in the past at the big Nuclear symposium last year, and mentioned that the motivation for Russian was to drive the spot prices down to the point where their Uranium tailings were profitable again, and that is EXACTLY what played out. As the prices dropped, the Russian and Ex-Soviet countries have had a field day supplying the world with their “now profitable” tailings and they didn’t give a crap about the rest of the Uranium mining industry. If the USA / Canada / and Australia had a clue they’d have put a stop to this back in 2013, but instead, the energy conglomerates & utility companies won big and got fuel on the cheap. U3O8 is less than 1% of the overall costs for Nuclear power, so by playing ball with this cheap Uranium spot price party, they’ve nearly killed the miners in this sector, and it is going to come back to bite them in the butt big-time.

          It was a good idea to dismantle the war-heads for nuclear fuel, but their complete disregard for the effect it was having on the price situation was a complete cluster. The supply destruction from closed mines, delayed or canceled projects, and moth-balled growth initiatives has been epic, and it will cause the Uranium prices to skyrocket down the road. They’ll get exactly what is coming to them….

          The future source of Uranium will be from the struggling miners on life support, and they should have stopped this deal back in 2013 like they said they would. I’m 100% for getting the government bureaucrats out of the way, and handing the reigns back over to the free markets and the mining companies for real price discovery when these longer term supply contracts get renegotiated in 2017-2019.

            Oct 04, 2016 04:23 PM

            Here is one of those old Marin Katusa articles describing the situation that has played out:

            The Future of Uranium: Three Major Takeaways from the 2015 World Nuclear Fuel Market Conference

            https://katusaresearch.com/future-of-uranium/

            Oct 04, 2016 04:33 PM

            Here is the other article Marin Katusa wrote last year and it unpacks the situation with more clarity about how the US has enabled Russian and Kazakhstan to steal the show and it did nothing but punish US / Canadian / Australian / and African miners.

            ________________________________________________________________________

            The Clintons, the New York Times, Uranium and the Truth
            Marin Katusa – May 15, 2015

            “Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium and has the second largest recoverable reserves of the mineral. Vladimir Putin’s relationship with the Russian-backed Kazakh President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has established Russia as the uranium market mover. If you haven’t read my book, which will help you understand what’s going on in this important sector.”

            “In addition to its large reserves and production, Russia has a stockpile of highly enriched weapons-grade uranium and plutonium—enough that the country is estimated to hold over 5 times the world’s annual uranium production of just under 134 million pounds.”

            ***The misunderstood Fact of Underfeeding

            “The linchpin of Russia’s nuclear energy dominance lies in its enrichment capacity. Russian enrichment facilities can take low grade uranium tails with grades between 0.2% and 0.3% and turn them into the 3%-5% grade uranium required for fission in nuclear reactors for energy. By 2016 Russia will be capable of producing over 15 million pounds of uranium per year, or 40% of the US’s uranium demand.”

            “Fukushima resulted in a fire sale of uranium into the spot market. Because of the rapid shutdown of the Japanese nuclear reactors, separative work units (SWUs) have traded at historic low prices, and have caused what is called an Underfeeding market. SWUs measure the amount of separation work necessary to enrich uranium. Most reactors require ~3-5% U-235 in uranium’s enriched form, from a natural concentration of about 0.7%.”

            “After enrichment from ~0.7% U-235 to ~3-5%, the material left behind is what the industry calls tails. Tails still contain up to 0.3% U-235. This is where the price is important of SWUs, and why the Russians are benefiting from underfeeding while the US uranium companies are suffering.” ****

            “The price of SWUs are much lower now than before Fukushima. Therefore the Russians can process tails with lower concentrations of U-235. In fact, the Russians have been able to produce 500% more uranium from tails post-Fukushima then just a year before the disaster at the same world uranium spot price. This is called an underfeeding market. We are currently in an underfeeding market.” [Bingo!]

            “Overfeeding would be the opposite situation; such that SWU’s are expensive and much less uranium would be produced from the tails because the grade of the tails would have to be much higher to be economic.”

            “Let us make something very clear: the Russians are the ones benefiting from an underfeeding market; the US is at a disadvantage and domestic US production is suffering.” **** [ding, ding, ding]

            “The reason is that the US DOEs not have the infrastructure in place that the Russians have, for the necessary enrichment that can take advantage of the underfeeding market we’re in. Underfeeding has contributed to the low price of Uranium, and that has created significant problems for US domestic production, which depends on mining rather than reprocessing tails.”

            “Moreover, the Russians benefit in yet another way. Because they can reprocess more tails, the Russians have less radioactive material to dispose of.”

            *****President Obama’s Unintended Consequences

            “Ironically, President Obama has done more to help the Russians to execute their global nuclear agenda than anyone else in the world. This was something completely neglected in the New York Times article. Pre-2013, the US Department of Energy (DOE) had a cap on its uranium sales. Historically, the DOE followed the following two guidelines:

            DOE sales would not exceed 10% of the total annual uranium fuel requirements of all US nuclear plants.

            The DOE sales of uranium to the nuclear utilities would not occur at a price below that of a domestic uranium producer’s cost of production.”

            President Obama changed those two guidelines in 2013, and he could not have chosen a worse time to do so. [Bingo!]

            “President Obama’s plan was well-intended but his advisers were short sighted. The president intended on using the DOE sales of uranium to generate $250 million annually for past clean ups on historic sites with environmental issues.”

            ****** “The unintended consequence of his actions is that President Obama has cannibalized the domestic US uranium production industry by selling strategic reserves into the open market, which in turn, has flooded the market. The uranium industry is a much smaller industry than oil, natural gas and coal. Thus, the uranium lobbyists do not have as much influence as the other sectors in Washington. For example, the four states involved in uranium production—Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah—are all Republican states, hence you can see why Obama cares little what they have to say.”

            “Therefore, Obama threw out both of the DOE’s historic guidelines listed above, and today we have a situation where the US has helped create the environment for the Russians to execute their global agenda on uranium. Way to go, Obama!”

            (to read the rest of the article click on the link below)

            https://katusaresearch.com/the-clintons-the-new-york-times-uranium-and-the-truth/

          Oct 04, 2016 04:03 PM

          Dragonite – To reiterate where things went off course in 2013 from Marin’s article:

          “Pre-2013, the US Department of Energy (DOE) had a cap on its uranium sales. Historically, the DOE followed the following two guidelines:

          1) DOE sales would not exceed 10% of the total annual uranium fuel requirements of all US nuclear plants.

          2) The DOE sales of uranium to the nuclear utilities would not occur at a price below that of a domestic uranium producer’s cost of production.”

          “President Obama changed those two guidelines in 2013, and he could not have chosen a worse time to do so.”
          _________________________________________________________________________

          So am I glad this insane partnership that destroyed US / Canadian / Australian / and African uranium production is over. Absolutely!

            Oct 04, 2016 04:09 PM

            Very valuable information indeed. I should follow Marin Katusa more since I know he is very good at looking into Uranium market.

            Do you think both Uranium and plutonium will stop flowing to US market? I am sure Russia will still continuing supply China with excess nuclear material. But there must be a limit Russians feel insecure. There is a new cold war even hot war going on. It no longer economically. Supplying their enemy with mass destruction material is dumb.

            Once Russian Kazakhstan supply is discontinued, there will be a huge short fall.

            Oct 04, 2016 04:12 PM

            Also, why does Russians refer the agreement as plutonium disposal? Is it separate from Uranium deal or just change of the name?

            Oct 04, 2016 04:31 PM

            Dragonite – Good point about Russia simply moving over to supply China. That could have been an additional motivating factor for Russia to pull out of the deal with the US.

            _____________________________________________________________________________

            From the article above – “In addition to its large reserves and production, Russia has a stockpile of highly enriched weapons-grade uranium and plutonium—enough that the country is estimated to hold over 5 times the world’s annual uranium production of just under 134 million pounds.”

            ____________________________________________________________________________

            The “Megatons for Megawatts” program was supposed to have officially ended in 2013, but that is when Obama changed the Department Of Energy rules and policy. They’ve been buying both Uranium and Plutonium from the Russians and dumping this into the energy markets for the last few years at any prices, and this has just decimated the spot prices, and given Utility and Nuclear power companies an indirect subsidy. It’s really a shame, because it has enabled Russian and their ex-Soviet countries to take over the markets, crippled the other US, Canadian, Australian, and African producers, and insane thing is that the US imports 90% of its nuclear fuel.

            If they would have stuck to the DOE rules, stopped this deal with Russians, and not dumped the Uranium and Plutonium onto the markets, then the price of these nuclear fuels would have already gone up, and the Russian tailings would not have been economical. That is the point Marin was making about Underfeeding versus Overfeeding in his article.

            Here are those snippets again:

            ____________________________________________________________________________

            “After enrichment from ~0.7% U-235 to ~3-5%, the material left behind is what the industry calls tails. Tails still contain up to 0.3% U-235. This is where the price is important of SWUs, and why the Russians are benefiting from underfeeding while the US uranium companies are suffering.” ****

            “The price of SWUs are much lower now than before Fukushima. Therefore the Russians can process tails with lower concentrations of U-235. In fact, the Russians have been able to produce 500% more uranium from tails post-Fukushima then just a year before the disaster at the same world uranium spot price. This is called an underfeeding market. We are currently in an underfeeding market.” [Bingo!]

            “Overfeeding would be the opposite situation; such that SWU’s are expensive and much less uranium would be produced from the tails because the grade of the tails would have to be much higher to be economic.”

            “Let us make something very clear: the Russians are the ones benefiting from an underfeeding market; the US is at a disadvantage and domestic US production is suffering.” **** [ding, ding, ding]

    b
    Oct 04, 2016 04:36 AM

    Another interesting thing, gold doesnt seem to be reacting to Russian “nuke drills” or them killing US and Israeli troops or the plutonium deal falling apart.etc

    Course we have seen golds non reaction to other evnets that at one time might have affected gold.
    bitcoin seems to have reacted.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:51 AM

    Yeup Cory, every time oil bumps the downtrend line it’s followed by a sharp turn south. And gold should continue south until the 14th. Then get a nice bounce.
    The dollar might get a nice bid, but it won’t last long. It’s heading south mid and long term.

    CFS
    Oct 04, 2016 04:52 AM

    SORRY TO SHOUT, BUT…..

    ALL THAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT CHINA IS ON HOLIDAY.
    They were the primary buyers. Now we get to know just how much they were buying.
    Take away buying, and guess what! Price goes down.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:53 AM

    When they say: ‘It’s a whole new economic paradigm,’ then it’s time to buy volatility, eh.

    That being said, the correction in mining stocks will probably take another week until done. Have to admit that the gold price sluggishness and lack of meaningful correction led me to think that this outcome was not warranted. But the inverse correlation with the gold/silver ratio did pick out the interim top. Just like the correction to the downside in the mining indece, we’ll see several ‘sell’ indications as we improve on the upside.

    http://schrts.co/zwmFYa

    CFS
    Oct 04, 2016 04:00 AM

    SGE.com.cn.
    According to the holiday schedule issued by the Exchange, the market will be closed from October 1st (Saturday) to October 9th (Sunday). The market will be opened on October 10th (Monday), and the last trading session before holiday will be the afternoon session on September 30 (Friday).

    To mitigate market risk during the holiday, we decide to make adjustment to the margin rates and price limits of deferred products according to Measures for the Administration of Risk Control of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Detailed adjustment is hereby given as below:……..

    Oct 04, 2016 04:03 AM

    OUCH! My investment butt it hurting! Wall Street took me to the wood shed!! NUGT, USLV, ASM, SLV, and DWTI!! Making some $ on DUST.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:03 AM

    Panic selling starts once 1300 gives way. Silver broke 18 so it heads to 17 and gold much lower lower toward 1200. It is down 3% or $40.

      CFS
      Oct 04, 2016 04:11 AM

      There are idiots that are highly leveraged, that are going to the slaughter.
      All I can say is”Greedy pigs, get slaughtered”.

        Oct 04, 2016 04:35 PM

        GDX and GDXJ are already (4 to 8 times) highly leveraged and then people go out and get 3x etfs to get 20x leverage. I mentioned oil is becoming the safehaven a few days ago and it has done quite well. In the aftermarket it just took off. I had to quickly cancel my big sell order for USO at 11.18 when I saw the big spike to 49+.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:04 AM

    I loosing too much money now. Doctor said down. But he dont say all one day finisc.

      Oct 04, 2016 04:12 AM

      Doc had a great call as $1308, $1300, and $1275 all fell today.

      It is better that we are getting all the selling exhaustion out in a major thrust down, to shake out the weak hands, and knock the froth out of the markets. I would much rather see this kind of exaggerated behavior than the slow boring grind down. Now, Gold is back in the headlines, and people will realize the miners just went on clearance sale.

      Yes, it is sad to take a haircut on miners, and I have my fair share of red today like most mining investors. However, I also did a little shopping and added to positions that I had trimmed back in the summer. I’m moving funds around to be able to capitalize on this corrective move throughout the remainder of October and need a few days before everything settles anyway. Really I’d like the correction to go on just a little bit longer this week and next, so that I can get fully positioned before the next leg up.

      b
      Oct 04, 2016 04:22 AM

      Its a gamble Kostyantyn.

      We have had a few of the “blogsters” and pundits saying Oct would be lower for some weeks now, maybe a month or two. (well, here it is)

      Once we hit a “low” we see which way it goes from there.

      Not that I know anything but I figure its all psychology which way gold goes, fundimentally we have about a 70 year? supply above ground right now.
      Demand is down and price should come down, but as they say ” no rush like a gold rush”.

        Oct 04, 2016 04:24 AM

        very sick today. not feeling so good. I can shoot self. Also I can buy more and shoot self later.
        like joke you know

          Oct 04, 2016 04:27 AM

          Lol, that’s the spirit, buy more now!

            Oct 04, 2016 04:46 AM

            BTFD

            Oct 04, 2016 04:56 AM

            +1. Also like the fact that the conventionals aren’t exactly showing any strength this afternoon. I’ve added GPL, ISVLF, and USERX in my IRA. Plan on holding for a while to see what 2017 brings, regardless of which bimbo gets elected. jmo

            Oct 04, 2016 04:59 AM

            Nice on the IRA selections Silverdollar. I agree that it is irrelevant to me which bimbo gets elected for the mining positions I’m invested in. Just a bunch of noise, not the signal.

            Oct 04, 2016 04:09 AM

            BTFD – I now understand and agree wholeheartedly!

            Oct 04, 2016 04:14 AM

            Neither bimbo will roll this bull so there will be more great gains in your future with those picks!

            GH
            Oct 04, 2016 04:46 PM

            If this is a PM bull, and I strongly believe it is, then this will be the best buying opportunity left in what seems likely to be one of the biggest bulls ever.

    CFS
    Oct 04, 2016 04:04 AM

    Only TA people think something has fundamentally changed. It has not. On Monday the Chinese will be back in again buying gold.

    Guess what! We in the West will soon run out of physical, and THEN the price will rise.
    And good luck getting some.
    I will be increasing my buying towards the end of this week.

      Oct 04, 2016 04:22 AM

      Not me, nothing has changed.

      b
      Oct 04, 2016 04:29 AM

      Not able to get any.
      Thats been said for years now.
      David Morgan was hollering that about silver on its way to 50.
      Later people said they saw line ups of people buying when it was line ups of people selling.

      I said many times, there is no shortage and all physical a person wants has been available.

      I believe you cant get any when I dont see any. lol

      Can you imagine the selling in silver as the price moves up?
      alot of people will want their money back.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:06 AM

    What if,, gold continues south for a while, and oil gets clobbered. ( margin calls galore ) And couple that with a surprise FED rate hike of 1-1.5%… What you got is an anialation of derivatives unlike anything ever seen..

    The ball is TEED-UP!

      CFS
      Oct 04, 2016 04:16 AM

      Chartster, what do you mean “oil gets clobbered”
      Considering the strength of the dollar, oil is showing good strength.

    CFS
    Oct 04, 2016 04:07 AM

    Big Al, there is nothing wrong with fundamentals.
    PMs are on a world market.
    You HAVE to know ALL the fundamental factors.
    The dollar is up partly because the Cinese are on vacation and not selling dollars.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:09 AM

    Two that I am following to buy more. ASM ave 2.04 USLV ave $21.34.

    ASM Fib retrace 2.17 for 40%
    ASM Fib retrace 1.91 for 50%
    ASM Fib retrace 1.68 for 60%

    USLV Fib retrace 20.95 for 40%
    USLV Fib retrace 19.32 for 50%
    USLV Fib retrace 17.35 for 60%

      Oct 04, 2016 04:14 AM

      Jason – I bought some ASM today in between your Jasonacci levels of 50% – 60% retracement. 🙂

    Oct 04, 2016 04:16 AM

    THE HORROR! THE HORROR!!

      Oct 04, 2016 04:48 AM

      It’s right in time for the Spooktacular pre-Halloween shopping season…..

    Oct 04, 2016 04:21 AM

    All things considered, the dollar remains unimpressive in my book. Even if it does manage to break above the nearby resistance, I doubt very much that it will break out of the downtrend that began in March, 2015.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p61448357603&a=480294658

      Oct 04, 2016 04:57 AM

      +1

        Oct 04, 2016 04:11 AM

        “371.25 fine grains of silver” should be the first part of your name. 😉

          Oct 04, 2016 04:49 PM

          +371.25

          I second that motion

    Oct 04, 2016 04:25 AM

    This chart should show to anyone that gold prices aught to be well supported, rather than on the run. With the close, it should be updated entirely. But I woukd acknowledge that the inherent fatal flaw is that gold prices should be at historic highs, if this chart were a complete reflection of interest rates vs. inflation. Since Stockcharts.com put Pring’s Inflation Index out of commission, this is probably one of the only sources that might demonstrate realtime a forecast for gold prices.

    http://schrts.co/4XWf4R

    Oct 04, 2016 04:25 AM

    I agree with Axel Merck that the dollar will go lower. Whether you also agree or not, this is worth reading:

    http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1475590140.php

      Oct 04, 2016 04:26 AM

      Sorry, Axel, I do know how to spell your name. 😐

      CFS
      Oct 04, 2016 04:51 AM

      Matthew, the US Dollar is difficult to call.
      Obviously, there will be some safe haven buying, as some currencies weaken and the US economic propaganda is first rate. People believe it.
      On the other hand the US has an awful lot of IOUs oustantanding by its overspending.
      Pundits say China won’t dump US treasury holdings. Maybe, maybe not.
      Saudi has accumulated a lot of US treasuries over the years, which it usually exchanges for arms sales. But now the US allows legal action over 911. Is there a possibility some judge might encumber Saudi holdings in the US. Saudis might choose pre-emotive action and sell. That would really hurt the dollar.
      US continues to overspend. The trade deficit sometime will hurt the dollar, especially as the US monetizes the debt increasingly.

      Will the safe haven buying exceed all the selling? Perhaps in the short run, but for how long?

    Oct 04, 2016 04:45 AM

    Ok Matthew

    Let’s hear the spin…take your best shot spin master…

    Oct 04, 2016 04:52 AM

    While Matthew is busy preparing his comeback how gold and silver are great investments let me mention two other things…

    Those who say nothing has changed, you are right, nothing has changed…
    God and silver are still in bear markets, nothing has changed.

    Those who think this is because China is on holiday…really?
    Does anyone really think if China wanted buy gold today they wouldn’t because of a holiday?

    Matthew I can’t wait to hear this one…

    Pitchforks, waves…want will it be?

      Oct 04, 2016 04:03 AM

      Guess what, James? Gold fell right to the fork support on the following chart (blue arrow).

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p91324948235&a=443006542

      Click on it again this evening after it has updated to show today’s action.

      For a horse guy, you sure are clueless when it comes to logically assessing odds.

        Oct 04, 2016 04:26 AM

        Heh heh, James.., ya got to admit, that chart was one helluva back@ya..

      CFS
      Oct 04, 2016 04:04 AM

      Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks. Time will reveal the truth.

      You do realize “pundits” are paid by the column inch, quite often, more than their ability to always be right. Of course they have to be right occasionally, and then they tout correctness.
      But those of us who live by proceeds from the market had better be more often right than wrong.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:57 AM

    So much for that great silver year of 2016…

    Silver once again proving why it’s the worlds worst investment.

    Actually it’s not fair of me to say that.

    I shouldn’t be classifying silver as an investment.

    It’s a joke

    Oct 04, 2016 04:58 AM

    Nothing has changed my $4 silver call

    Oct 04, 2016 04:59 AM

    First of all Matthew I don’t fall apart

    Second all there ever is are pullbacks.

    It’s a bear market with some dead cat bounces in between

      Oct 04, 2016 04:04 AM

      You completely fall apart.

        Oct 04, 2016 04:52 PM

        Matthew,

        The delusional elements of the herd never change. You and I and a few other well reasoned individuals fully understand that this pain we are experiencing is only temporary and should not only be welcomed, it is necessary for the PM bull to resume.

        The market is now and in the next few days going to offer fabulous entry points on a multitude of super nice mining stocks with enormous potential in the future.

        Stop trying to reason with the goofs who refuse to see beyond the daily fluctuations and periodic needed sell-offs to reset sentiment and price levels. Its a complete waste of time and energy and nothing more than a s**t slinging contest.

        You will be vindicated on your consistent bull thesis!

        V

        V

          Oct 04, 2016 04:15 PM

          Thanks V, I agree!

    Oct 04, 2016 04:02 AM

    I have to go…arrivederci

    Oct 04, 2016 04:38 PM

    The Bullish Gold Miners Percentage in now below 30. The last time it was that low was in January. Compare it to the indexes. Anytime it is below 30 it is almost always a great time to buy gold stocks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$bpgdm

      Oct 04, 2016 04:02 PM

      +1
      I couldn’t agree more.

        Oct 04, 2016 04:07 PM

        And since this is a bull market, a reading below 30 represents an even better opportunity. As FranSix mentioned, a zero reading is unlikely so the “sentiment may actually be reliable in forecasting the rebound.”

          Oct 04, 2016 04:23 PM

          I was too impatient. It was hovering around 50 for so long and gold was holding 1300 for so long that I thought it was not going to break down. I was wrong. I should have paid more respect to it. As far as I am concerned it is the best gold stock sentiment indicator available. Buy when it is below 30, sell when it is above 70. Keep your core positions and ride the bull. You can make a lot of money.

            Oct 04, 2016 04:33 PM

            I’ve been impatient countless times but I get away with it a lot more when playing individual stocks rather than ETFs since each usually has its own cycle.

    Oct 04, 2016 04:51 PM

    Unable to take out $1340 gold and silver are dropping like rocks.

    It stopped at the bottom of the pitchfork, yippie!

    Big deal

    Oct 04, 2016 04:55 PM

    Da Nile isnt just a river in Egypt

    Oct 04, 2016 04:00 PM

    Silver biggest drop in almost 2 years

    Spin it any way you want

    Oct 04, 2016 04:03 PM

    The only pitchfork that matters is the one stuck in silver

      Oct 04, 2016 04:07 PM

      James…quit horsing around..starting to sound like a nag….

    Oct 04, 2016 04:09 PM

    I guess this is another “back up the truck” moment.

    There’s been a lot of back up the truck moments from $48 down to $17

    How many trucks are there?

      Oct 04, 2016 04:27 PM

      The trucks have been re-possessed.
      Greed brought gold up and now greed is bringing it down as the huge profits have to be booked before they vanish so it is a race to the bottom just as it was a race to the top. There is a rush for the exits to book profits before the next guy. I had mentioned a long time ago gold was too far above the 200 day average. When things look to good to be true (the charts) it is time to get out and not a time get out your long ruler and start projecting to 1600 gold.
      Not really about gold supply and demand but just greed.

      Oct 04, 2016 04:29 PM

      For those who know what they are doing, there’s been a lot of chances to sell, too!

      b
      Oct 04, 2016 04:17 PM

      funny james, how many trucks?

      GH
      Oct 04, 2016 04:50 PM

      Of course it is, James!!!

      Back ‘er up!

    Oct 04, 2016 04:30 PM

    Exactly what bull market are we riding?

    In 5 years gold went from $1920 to $1270 and silver $48 to $17

      Oct 04, 2016 04:38 PM

      It really is a bull market if you turn your charts upside down and look from right to left and then take a long ruler and project to 5,000 like the experts.

      Oct 04, 2016 04:39 PM

      Hang it up. James. You can’t be reasoned with.

    b
    Oct 04, 2016 04:20 PM

    Maybe James figures you cant be reasoned with Mat.
    Other than the big move PMs have headed south.
    Bird may have been right, “dead cat bounce”
    He may also have been right about gold moving up when the euro tanks.

      Oct 04, 2016 04:54 PM

      B, not that you’d know what being reasonable looks, but when has James tried to reason with anyone? He makes emotion-driven assertions, not arguments.

      Oct 04, 2016 04:23 PM

      If 2016 is a dead cat bounce, then I have come to love dead cats.

        Oct 04, 2016 04:49 PM

        Not a chance, Paul. Mark my words and I’ll mark yours.

    b
    Oct 04, 2016 04:01 PM

    I have only seen James state facts.
    How can they be reasoned with?

    b
    Oct 04, 2016 04:08 PM

    Mat, not everyone sits in front of a screen all day.
    Some, might buy phyzz and forget it. Those people have been hit pretty good the last 5? years.

    b
    Oct 04, 2016 04:12 PM

    James says PMs grade is an “f”, compared to pot shares he is right.
    PMs this last month has been a horrible place to be.

    Im sure there are others that went up as much as pot.
    PMs is an “f” in comparison is all James has been saying.

    Heck, this site has been saying to be in cash, so even the depreciating cash has been wiser than PMs.