Where will the gold drop stop?
Doc is with us today to cover the continued fall in gold prices as well as the rising oil price. Gold is down to just above $1,250 and stocks are selling off along with this down move. Oil is also continuing its move higher with crude breaking above $50 a barrel. How long will these moves continue?
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Well, since most Gold producers (Majors, Mid-Tiers, Small) and the Near-term Gold Development projects went into the RED today or were flat, it is important to note the companies that bucked the trend and investors bid them higher today despite the macro backdrop of falling metals prices.
40.45% PATAGONIA GOLD PLC PATAF
14.04% INCEPTION MINING INCORPORATED IMII
8.73% ORVANA MINERALS CORPORATION ORVMF
8.52% EL CAPITAN PRECIOUS METALS INC ECPN
3.08% JAGUAR MINING INC JAGGF
2.87% PILOT GOLD INC PLGTF
1.81% MX GOLD CORPORATION MXLGF
1.07% TMAC RESOURCES INCORPORATED TMMFF
1.00% NAUTILUS MINERALS INC NUSMF
0.70% MANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION NEW MNDJF
0.58% CENTAMIN PLC CELTF
0.48% TIMMINS GOLD CORPORATION TGD
0.19% CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES CORP JINFF
0.15% MEXUS GOLD US MXSG
BTW – There were no primary Major Gold producers that were in the Green today.
Those are the only winners today out of about 150 Gold producer developer stocks.
Glad I had exposure to 4 of those. 😉
Darn, I had some low bids in for Orvana and jaguar.
I have a nice free ride position in Jaguar, but have considered buying more and raising my cost basis to just very low because I see it getting re-rated substantially.
As for Orvana, I’ve been eyeballing it for a while and made throw a small position in place.
I still have a small core position in Mandalay Resources that I’ve been trading in and out of over time. Sometimes I get a better dividend than others, but they are such a great and little known company.
Cheers!
P.S. – I still tip my hat to you CFS for bringing Mandalay Resources to my attention in the first place.
Many thanks.
Nice one Ex.
🙂
THE PAIN! THE PAIN!!
Blood bath coming to end…..=$1250….bottom ends decline this week,early next week…per GS
Yes…will be interesting to see who is right. Gary sees us testing this years highs in November.
Gary is smoking something. There is not enough time left in the year to do that. 1200 or near is almost a given. Once the interest rate hike has been announced buyers, a rally could start.
Maybe he read b’s post on pot stocks,and decided to snoop around.
The future is a bit hazy…..
G….is (s) pot on
U.S. plans to stockpile more Lithium compounds used in Batteries
Wed Oct 5, 2016 – Reuters
“The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) said it has a mandate to buy 600 kg of lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) and 2,160 kg of lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA) in the fiscal year starting Oct. 1.
The amounts were detailed by the DLA in its Annual Materials Plan for financial year 2016-2017, which runs from October to September, published on its website this week.
They are double the 300 kg of LCO and 1,080 kg of NCA it was mandated to buy in the 2015-2016 fiscal year.
Both compounds are used to make lithium-ion batteries. LCO batteries are used for mobile phones and laptops and NCA batteries are used for electric vehicles.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/lithium-us-stockpiles-idUSL8N1AW3NN
Interesting factoid, but irrelevant.
Even one tonne of extra stockpile is trivial.
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf
Come now CFS – every kg matters ! 😉
Reuters felt is was important enough to report, so I thought it was an interesting factoid. The key for me was that they doubled the mandate from last year. It shows the developing trend, and I’d say that is relevant….
I see the news clip as positive for Lithium batteries and electric cars, etc. This increase shows a continuing trend toward alternate technologies. It’s more evidence that the sector is improving.
Bingo.
This is looking like a very nice deposit,
I’m a shareholder (with an average in price of 10.17 cents), been a nice ride so far.
Looking forward to future drilling results forthcoming.
Cheers.
Thanks Skeeta – Do you think Kidman will spin this Lithium asset out separately, or maybe spin their Gold assets out separately? (similar to what Nevada Sunrise Gold is doing?)
I honestly have no idea at present what way management will lean towards Excelsior.
Cheers.
Or, and I find this hard to believe….
Government is acting efficiently and buying and stockpiling vital materials while they are abundant and relatively cheap.
Nah. I must have been out in the sun too long. That’s too improbable.
Ha! CFS – yes, you must have been out in the sun too long if you think the government ever does anything efficiently 🙂 Good one!
Ha, you over-estimate the knowledge and quality of the reporters.
But never mind the quality….it’s the column inches by which they are measured!
I choose to take in all the input first (because you can get good nuggets of information and data from those article inches) and make those kinds of subjective and qualitative judgments about the merits of the info after doing further research.
That is what the mantra “Do Your Own Due Diligence” is all about.
Many of the various political sources and Zero Hedge articles people post here are quite dodgy, and reek of having a distinct bias, but I’m in the camp that it is still better to have more options, opinions, and data than to limit posts to only the newspapers or sources one person deems acceptable.
China Battery Maker Lishen Banks on Electric Car Boom for IPO
– Bloomberg News – September 29, 2016
If it wasn’t for oligarchs we would already have the majority of cars running on electric
China gets it has just put in large fleets of electric buses to reduce smog in cities.
The self-driving cabs / Uber / Lyft whatever that they are developing are going to be electric.
“The Times They Are a Changing….”
It’s rush hour for urban electric buses
Barbara Grady – Wednesday, July 13, 2016
“Amid recent attention to the transportation emissions of the urban core — with the US and China announcing a “race to zero emissions” in electric bus deployment and California issuing $23 million in grants for manufacturers to build EV big rigs for ports — there’s also the private sector idea of sharing technology…. ”
https://www.greenbiz.com/article/its-rush-hour-urban-electric-buses
Chinese electric car maker enters US market by selling buses
April 20, 2016 by By Joe Mcdonald
“The Chinese automaker that sold more electric cars last year than Tesla, Nissan or GM is taking a back road into the American market on a battery-powered bus…”
http://phys.org/news/2016-04-chinese-electric-car-maker-buses.html
Electric Buses 2016-2026 Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment By Dr Peter Harrop and Mr Franco Gonzalez
http://www.idtechex.com/research/reports/electric-buses-2016-2026-000467.asp
China Electric Bus Industry Report, 2016-2020
NEW YORK, Aug. 15, 2016 /PRNewswire
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-electric-bus-industry-report-2016-2020-300313779.html
But yeah…… batteries and EVs are just a bubble….. right…..
Gold giants looking at Renewables
Mining.com | about 21 hours ago – #RenewableEnergy #GOLD
“Barrick Gold, IAMGOLD, AurCrest Gold, Goldcorp, TMAC Resources, Newmont Mining and Gold Fields are getting serious about renewables, says an Energy and Mines analysis published on Thursday.”
Copper: Why it Will Be a Key Metal in Our Renewable Energy Future
Posted By Smallcappower – September 30, 2016
http://smallcappower.com/top-stories/copper-will-key-metal-in-our-renewable-energy-future/
Lowell Copper, Gold Mountain Mining and Anthem United Announce Completion of Business Combination to Create JDL Gold Corp.
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Oct. 6, 2016)
I’m concerned by the amount of corporate borrowing going on in order to maintain high dividends.
Clearly, this goes on and can go on for quite a while, in order to smooth out fluctuations in sales figures, etc. However, if we have a sustained economic stagnation, such borrowing will stop. Dividends will drop the once a significant stock market fall happens this will be extended, by the drop in corporate borrowing and, indeed, having to pay back debt.
off Topic, but interesting :
https://oilandgas-investments.com/2016/natural-gas/there-is-less-than-one-days-surplus-of-natural-gas/
Thanks Xriva. That is interesting and relevant.
I’ve enjoyed our energy discussions on Uranium, Lithium, Solar over at ceo lately.
Cheers!
Interestingly today, the U.K. Government overrode protests and a county court order to allow permits to be given for fracking for shale gas in Lancashire, England.
If natural gas supply really is that tight, what would be some good natural gas plays ?
I have a substantial watch-list of Oil & Gas companies but it is too big to post here without the haters coming out of the woodwork. I haven’t pruned it down enough to have just a few top picks at this point, because I shelved my research on Oil/Gas earlier in the year.
There is the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)
For short term trading only I’ve used the leveraged ETFs – (GASL) and (GASX).
For general Oil & Gas exposure from larger, smaller, and service companies I generally just us (XLE) (XOP) and (OIH) There are some nat gas companies in the mix, and some companies producer or explore for both Oil and Gas.
I don’t know if the report on gas supplies is true. I remember a statement made a few years ago that at normal transmission pressures, there are 3 to 5 days supplies in the pipes before the pressure drops to zero. (Depending on the system and location, and that was a report in mid winter, made after there had been some pope had broken, or pressure drop or something like that.)-
I agree with Doc that while will not go over $60. However, things can happen in the fourth quarter. I believe that we will still see $1500 gold and $25 silver. I am expecting a volatile precious metals market in the next few weeks. It’s all about the dollar. Today, it is testing that long trendline. If it breaks below the trendline after doing this, look out. $89 will be coming. I understand what Doc sees but I am already preparing for a surge in precious metals. When gold and oil hit those higher targets, they are going to pull the rug out of this bull market. I still believe that a deflationary bust is coming that will take gold down to $500 and silver to single digits. And yes, the SPX will go below 666.
oil not go over $60, not ”while”
+1
Velma,
For the last few years I’ve had gold hitting the mid to upper 500s as the low. I have technical and fundamental reasons for that. Currently, I doubt it’s going that low. I would like to hear why you think it’s going that low. Thanks
60 is the target I have had for a long time for this year and higher next year. I have been buying the dips while people have been targeting the 30’s.
EX. off topic….have you been to BlackBerry Farms in Tennessee….thanks OOTB
No I haven’t. However, I just checked out their website. The photo tour looks amazing, but the Smokies are beautiful about anywhere you go.
What Makes the Smoky Mountains Smoky?
by Jason Fishman. Posted on April 26, 2016
http://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/what-makes-the-smoky-mountains-smoky/
My folks are from Tennessee, org.family 1760
Wow – true Volunteers.
A lot of pot was smoked there in the early days.
That is it Bonzo Barzini – Soon enough there will be smoky mountains all through Canada.
Mist among very dark green foliage.
It’s a beautiful thing.
Good ole smoky mountains.
Thanks…we have been going to Big Cedar Lodge at Table Rock Lake south of Branson Mo for last several years for Thanksgiving, and were looking for a change and someone suggested BlackBerry,….and I thought you might know….thanks again…..OOTB
It looks awesome OOTB. Again, anywhere in the Smokies is great for R&R. I’ve spent a great deal of time in them – stunned by the landscapes. Right now when the trees are starting to change is simply breathtaking.
Pictures of the Smoky Mountains in the Fall:
They are beautiful. Wish I could see well enough to drive. Been there often in mid- summer, but never in fall foliage time. That beat New Hampshire or Quebec foliage….
Maybe we could get OWL to spring for an investors retreat weekend, and hire a limo, drive Knoxville to Waynesboro via the Blue ridge parkway and Gatlinburg.
Now you are talking OOTB!
The KER Investor Retreat. Pop in, talk stocks, take a load off your feet. 🙂
But ,then again the Rocky Mountains is another subject, maybe a train ride to and through the Canadian Rockies would look better as a tax deduction.
We’ll get OWL some black bear meat and some dandelion wine and spring the Bill on him later
Ha ha! A Perfect Plan!
October Fest in the Smokies…
Irish just called and said he wanted to be the limo drive, he has a free weekend off in October seems the queen will be out of town.
With IrishTony as our limo-driver up the winding roads of the Smoky Mountains, and drinking Oktoberfest beers at high altitudes……. What could possibly go wrong?
Color me there…….
http://bit.ly/2dW7gNv Keep it simple.
Good dollar chart Velma. Do you expect the USD to break above that trendline on the wedge, or do you think it will get reflected back down and continue into a narrowing apex?
break back down
Keith Schaeffer of oil and Gas Investments Bulletin has been talking a lot about Nat Gas. 92 drill rigs turning now versus over 1600 in 2008, massive exports to Mexico now and a number of export facilities being constructed right now. He also talks about one day of reserves of Nat Gas in the U.S. Not a lot obviously. Corey, would consider some ongoing coverage on Nat Gas and Nat Gas companies like Advantage Oil and Gas and Peyto (low- cost producers)?
Doc you talk like a man analyzing a market. The problem is that gold and silver are no longer a market. So you believe that this week when China is closed and DB is hitting the wall all the gold investors decided to sell? Yes and I have a bridge to sell you. You say it will take a long time to repair this damage (to gold and silver). I say it will take as long as it takes to get to the next crisis. War with Russia, DB insolvency, Italy leaving the EU, Trump as president. Something will come along as this is not a market but an unstable manipulated excuse where there is no price discovery only fraud. Ask Wells Fargo.
Ron – Bingo. You hit it on the head. Too much corruption from the Wall Street carnival barkers for anyone to be able to attribute this move to technical analysis. The interesting thing is…the chartists, according to their own theory, feel that the charts account for all factors that impact on a price. But nonetheless, I agree with you wholeheartedly.
Yes, everything shows up on a chart. What we do with it is up to us. Leading up to Tuesday’s plunge, you can see negative divergences, weakening momentum/strength and, maybe most importantly, Monday’s close below the 100 day MA and 89 day EMA. Yesterday, we saw a bounce precisely from a fork support and now we have a close below the 200 day MA and 233 day EMA so tomorrow should see more selling and a new low. It should also see bargain hunters and short covering so I will watch the price action, volume, etc. for signs of a significant reversal.
I still maintain that the violence of the move could be our friend in that such scary action can shorten the time needed to reach a low as people capitulate.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p95400853570&a=443006542
On the weekly chart, gold plunged to a support level that I mentioned two days ago:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p89775130622&a=369192745
A 50% Fib-arc retracement of the move up would put gold at about 1202 next week (1197 if it gets there tomorrow). The 38.2% level is close at roughly 1245 tomorrow.
One more simple thing to note about the chart is the fact that the weekly MACD has been on a sell signal since late August. This indicator alone doesn’t tell us that gold WILL fall but it does tell us that the odds of a large decline are much greater. The big declines of 2013 all happened on such a signal.
Based on the following chart, there’s a case for 1175 next week:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=22&id=p18513822717&a=451259276
On this next one (as well as the one with the Fib arcs above), 1230ish comes into play tomorrow:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p07086601327&a=480746762
Now this is a couple of kilos worth something
http://www.geologyin.com/2016/09/feast-your-eyes-on-largest-blue-topaz.html#4ue0AwF8gXAfKcPz.99
Agreed. Please see my Mandalay Resources comment to you at the top.
You da man CFS!
The world’s largest gold project (Seabridge Gold), just got a whole lot bigger
Frik Els | about 16 hours ago
“The PEA calls for mill throughput of 170,000 tonnes per day, 40,000 tonnes more than the earlier study which Seabridge says can be done without significant redesign of facilities. Initial capital costs have been increased by just less than 10% to $5.5 billion.
In the PEA the bulk of the operations are moved underground and using the block-cave method Seabridge says it can reduce waste rock by a whopping 81% or 2.4 billion tonnes over the 51 year life of the mine.
By vastly increasing the amount of copper mined life of mine operating costs are now a negative $179 an ounce while all-in costs fall to just $358 an ounce.
Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources at KSM are estimated at 2.9 billion tonnes grading 0.54 grams per tonne gold, 0.21% copper and 2.7 grams per tonne silver which translates into 49.8 million ounces of gold, 13.6 billion pounds of copper and 253 million ounces of silver.
During the first seven years of operation annual gold output would top 1 million ounces and life of mine annual production is estimated at 592,000 ounces of gold, 286,000 pounds of copper and 2.8 million ounces of silver.”
http://www.mining.com/the-worlds-largest-gold-copper-project/
Physical gold demand will limit price decline: Goldman Sachs
Huileng Tan – 4 Hours Ago
Doc you finally made the right call on gold. Congrats. took some time but you finally got one. Now your saying gold isnt going over 1300 for the rest of the year. I dont think thats a good call. kinda reminds me of your call last december 1100 top for 2016.
How Low Can You Go – Gold Limbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSPuVFWiyhY