A technical outlook for New Gold, Oceanagold and B2Gold
To kick off today with Rick we take a look at gold and some mid to large cap gold companies. We wanted to get Rick’s outlook on the underlying metal after the technical damage that has been done this week. He has some lower targets that he thinks would still have a bullish outlook for the metal.
Here are the charts we look at:
- Oceanagold – OCANF & TSX: OGC,
- New Gold – NGD & TSX:NGD,
- B2Gold – BTG & TSX: BTO,
- Gold,
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who dumped $2 billion gold in 1 minute?
chartster was it you? hoping to get gold down to your $500 target
Yesterday’s TFMetals podcast.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/7906/a2a-jeff-berwick-dollar-vigilante
Pot shares had profit taking yesterday, but we are on our way back up again today.
Im sure glad I decided to park in potshares instead of cash for awhile.
Especially with medical research really beginning to come out in the open.
Not that it hasnt always been available its just few people bothered to look,
only dopes smoke dope and all.
Hard to find a better example of herdthink.
According to Bob M 1150 – 1200 might be the time to move back into gold, his last interview actually focused on silver price more. Came across that way to me anyway. 16 I think he said.
So, maybe whatever gold is when silver hits 16.
SLV reversed at the 200 day MA – to the penny:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p81097637193
Impact Silver also turned at the 200 day MA after briefly poking through it:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p74656706541
Thanks Matthew. I wrote you back clarification and thank you regarding Impact on yesterday’s market wrap. Cheers!
Americas Silver has still not reached the 200 dMA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p70113310368
Good ole Americas Silver has sold off more than expected, and even though I’ve got a free ride, I’ve added a bit today and will likely buy even more next week.
I already took profit on Impact and bought Americas today. Wack- a- mole form the other side.
Nice Dan. I was considering doing the same, but want to hang on to the larger position I have in Impact, so I just added to Americas. I added to Avino, Brixoton, and Aurcana earlier in the week (but Brixton has sold off a bit more, so I may add more to it). I’m trying to get started with Bayhorse Silver and that stock has barely pulled back as much as I was hoping for.
Alexco has had a nice rout so I may add some more there as well.
I’m also sitting on a nice position of Cyprium Mining shares waiting for a news update on how their ramp up into commercial Silver production is going. They are now the new kid on the block in the Small Silver producer sub-sector. Nobody seems to have even noticed, but if they continue to ramp up production when the metals start recovering, then I would be surprised if it doesn’t get re-rated in a whole new light. There isn’t much data yet on what their actual costs have been or how much they have produced, but once that is out it will help clarify expectations for next year.
I just checked and it just went down 27%. Ouch – that hurts. 🙁
There doesn’t seem to be any news out that would have caused the selloff, but maybe I’ll check it out on Tuesday or Wednesday to see how it looks. I may have to pick up some more.
The main ticker (CUG) has been flat all day, so it must have just been the OTC correcting to the mean since it didn’t have heavy trading earlier in the week hand not done it’s correction yet. Now it has…..
Luckily Silver Bear Resources (SVBRF) was up over 26% today and was the #1 Performing Silver stock on the OTC to make me feel a little better. Most my other Silver stocks were up double digits today (see Dirty Dozen Silver Stocks below).
Losses Mount in Metals as Silver Suffers Worst Week Since 2013
Eddie Van Der Walt – Ranjeetha Pakiam
October 6, 2016
It is not a severe pullback. Gold rallied 30% and is not even having a 10% pullback. Things do not go straight up.
Sentiment got way too bullish. Most of these mining shares are up 200 – 400%!
This interview makes it sound like this gold rally is now a bear market rally. Which is it?
Gold did what it should have, poked under 1250. If you go much lower, things must be reassessed. I would be more inclined to purchase metals here rather than looking lower.
I would not be so quick to say NGD gave up the 200DMA. It closed a couple of pennies below and is trading at the 200DMA, so it is showing support.
Today the COT data on gold will come out and they will decide next week whether to hit it or buy it based on sentiment.
+1
Gold is sitting just below the 200 day MA at the moment:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p96569994666
Thanks.
Ahh, let it poke under for a day or two to really scare people! That will flush out all of the nervous nellies 😉
In the spirit of the season …
200 DMA says ” BOOOOO !!!! “
Spooktacular!!
Matthew,
I saw below you had a $1,245 target on the gold. That was you, right? If so, nice! Congrats.
IRich,
it looks like New Gold is at least a two baggar within 12 months from here. So what if there is another 8-10% drop. Good assets, good management and safe locals.
Thanks.
I am not fond of the price action here. I would expect a bounce around 3.70, but that has the potential to fail and go lower. Let’s see what 3.70 can support.
Jaguar Mining is a picture of strength so it could be a very long time before it is has a meeting with the 200 dMA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p60137713617
Yep looks like a bullish pennant pattern about to break out to the upside. Where is Morriss Hubbartt at time like these to narrate? 🙂
Ah…… he’s already got his weekend special posted on 321gold….
WARNING: Morris is not a “Professional” analyst, and thus investors should realize he has a paid subscription service. He also may at times Pump or Tout stocks that he follows and based on his interpretation of technical analysis and his own biases.
(hopefully that is an acceptable disclaimer for all and keeps the peace)
Gold Stocks Meltdown: Key Tactics
Morris Hubbartt
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Oct 7, 2016
(Click on the Blue links for the various embedded TECHNICAL ANALYSIS VIDEOES)
lol
Uh oh. To the bat phone. Call Bob Prechter!
haha! Good one Richard.
Speaking of Jaguar Mining – earlier this week I had a long winded response to a guy on CEO recently regard JAG and figured I’d post it here as part of this thread for investors that follow Jaguar.
A poster had asked me how Jaguar stacked up to Helio Resource group, because they saw the news release about the JV on their Gurupi project and must have thought that was their primary flagship property. Anyway I did my best to encapsulate the JAG story here in my response:
________________________________________________________________________
@Excelsior – “@bullionaire – It is difficult to compare $HRC Helio Resource Group #exploration to $JAG $JAGGF Jaguar Mining #production [apples and oranges].
Even though they are currently trading like a penny stock, Jaguar is a previous Mid-tier miner (that was trading at $6), that crashed and burned in the last cycle when the #GOLD prices collapsed. They were forgotten, but have restructured, retained all their mines & projects and are starting to be remembered once again. Jaguar will likely get re-rated in a major way over the next year or so. $JAG has 4 mines (Turmalina, Pilar, Roca Grande, and Paciencia) in 3 complexes, along with the Gurupi development project, and the Pedra Branca exploration project.
• 2016 production guidance: 90,000-95,000 oz
• 2015 production of 90,421 oz Au in the most active mining state in Brazil.
• 2.7 Moz Au Proven & Probable Reserves (includes Gurupi)
• 4.6 Moz Au Measured & Indicated Resources (includes Gurupi)
• Mar-2016 Pilar Gold Mine (Caeté Gold Complex) increased
Reserves 310% to 172,000 oz, grade 63% to 4.39
*They just had some great discovery results at the Pilar Gold mine released last week:
Jaguar Intercepts High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Pilar Gold Mine; Strong Potential to Convert Additional Mineral Resources and Reserves
Toronto, Canada, September 26, 2016
The AISC at Turmalina is $860 but at Caete (Roca Grande Mine + Pilar Mine) it is $1,468 for a combined AISC of $1203. The work is really focused to bring down costs at Caete’ and the recent exploration work at Pilar is well on the way to do so. They also have their Paciencia mine and complex on care and maintenance waiting for higher metal prices, but all infrastructure is in place and they can restart things rather quickly there.
The Gurupi JV and earn-in announced today simply allows them to move that development project along while they focus on their primary mines.
from #hrc, 4 Oct 2016,
WARNING: This is an Editorial and the author gets compensated by selling you a subscriptions service, so it is probably worthless noise.
However, for those that are interested in Marin Katusa’s thoughts on Gold stocks….
Here ya go….. it is a quick read:
Why Gold Stocks Have 300%+ Upside From Here
Marin Katusa – SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
Matt,
now that all the bad noise news is behind us and gold dropped,
are we seeing a mini “dead-cat bounce in silver? I expected us to bottom today and we have your struck/surpassed your $1245 target. The silver stocks are up %5-10 here. With this action in mind, do you think we have upward follow though next week or a resumption of this quick and heavy face-punch decline. I imagine the puffy dollar is about to crack starting next week. If it doesn’t and instead goes up from here I guess gold and Silver get smacked some more? I forgot to mention that there is a good chance that China sells more treasuries and buys some gold over the next few weeks. Too many moving parts yo!
There’s nothing definitive yet about today’s action. It is simultaneously positive and “dead-cat bouncey.”
So we could easily see at least the metals make new lows next week even if many miners do not. This low looks like it will be a somewhat drawn-out process rather than an event.
The dollar is trying to deal with the 50 week MA right now and is looking like it can go a little higher before disappointing the bulls.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=13&id=p06745338023
If you think it’s a bottom it isn’t.
When you know it’s a bottom it’s too late.
HUI: 250 before 180. Condition for bull market. If it fails, I will go neutral.
Richard, I like your approach–empirically based, no pretense at a crystal ball.
But I would suggest that 180 is a bit rigid. Flanagan (Gann Global) says that of the past four gold bulls, the average retrace after the first upleg in a new bull market, is 59%. That means a pullback to about 176. And if that is the average then, obviously, a retrace to lower than that wouldn’t be out of the question.
Here’s the long-term gold chart, with very precisely drawn trendlines. As long as gold is above these lines, the gold bull is not in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=1998-12-03&en=today&id=p39308908365&a=441277001
Ugly market. It has essentially gone nowhere in 3 months, exactly nowhere. Talk about paint drying. One hiccup and right back to average price.
WARNING: This is an Editorial and the author may have been compensated in some way for writing it, so it is probably worthless noise. However, for those that are interested in someone else’s thoughts on volatility, that has given it some thought…. Here ya go….. it is a quick read:
Is The VIX Ready To Pop Again?
Oct. 7, 2016 – The VIX Channel
I am very much of the opinion that a pop is imminent.
Look at $VXO vs UVXY. There is a very positive divergence going on
Of course, I might get schooled once again, but that’s the odds as I see them.
I’m holding a UVXY position that is slightly underwater, but it would only take a dollar or two to put it back into the money. I have little doubt will see a pop soon in volatility.
I said yesterday I believed the selling was extreme, over done and not based on anything.
I then said I believed we were at or near the end of this selling attack.
I also added that the $1250 level was around good support.
My $1212.80 bottom call WAS NOT VIOLATED.
I stand by that call.
I believe we had one more cascade down event earlier today, call it a shooting star or whatever you technicians call it and it failed.
Probability of November and December rate hike greatly reduced due to “goldilocks” NFP print.
The bottom is in. IMHO.
Nice!
Rate hike, shmake hike, who cares? Blah… My friend, just watch the 2s, 5s, 10s, 30s.
Before the close on Friday, I wanted to mention that I added ROC to the discussion on the weekly $VIX chart. If gold and gold miners are being absolutely eviscerated in the week of the Chinese holiday, then this is in preparation for something else. Looking to the VIX, you have a pair of dojis after the ‘A’ pattern, and a positive ROC.
what comes first the chicken or the egg?
did you ever see all those karate places where kids go to learn karate?
do you see all the trophies they all have in their windows?
Wasn’t somebody talking about bizarre comments???
Yes the trophies are handouts for all of the kids that pay good money to learn karate 😉 Everybody is a winner.
events happen, robots react, price moves.
keep repeating that to yourself
events happen, robots react, price moves
absolutely true! Problem is the robots outnumber the humans now 😉
Everybody might be a winner in karate, not in trading…
value and edge
– Pittsburgh Phil
value and edge
The Top “Dirty Dozen” Silver Stocks on the OTC that pushed out of the starting gates fastest today (10/07/2016) after a very bearish week in the metals complex.
KER readers may note that very few are ever featured on the Kitco lists, and most ETFs have very small to no exposure in these companies, and yet, we’ve discussed all of them on the KER and most of them earlier this week 🙂
% GAIN Top Silver Stocks – 10/07/2016 Symbol
26.05% SILVER BEAR RES INC SVBRF
24.28% SILVERCREST METALS INC SVCMF
18.12% IMPACT SILVER CORPORATION ISVLF
12.64% AURCANA CORPORATION AUNFF
10.92% EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXLLF
10.92% AVINO SILVER & GOLD MINES LTD ASM
10.60% MAYA GOLD MYAGF
10.28% CANASIL RESOURCES INC CNSUF
10.12% DEFIANCE SILVER CORP DNCVF
7.84% SANTACRUZ SILVER MINING LTD SZSMF
6.38% SIERRA METALS INC DBEXF
6.01% GOGOLD RESOURCES INC GLGDF
Now that’s a great way to head into the weekend !!
Oh…..it was also a great week to be “selective” and adding to positions in many of these companies that just closed quite a bit higher than their sale prices on Tues-Thurs.
Cheers!
IPT.v looks great when priced in GPL and is up sharply in the last few days:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AGPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54434865340
I like the prospects for them both, but hold a nice Impact Silver position at present, and sold out of my Great Panther a few months back. I may still pick up some Great Panther, but will remain much more heavily weighted in Impact on a move-forward basis.
Darn it ! I was going to open a position in Silver Crest, but was traveling today. No trophy for me.
Well there is always next week. If the Chinese don’t buy up a storm when they are back from holiday, then we may get another chance to catch a clearance sale. Honestly, most miners have pulled back substantially from their Summer highs, so buying anywhere around these levels or lower makes sense to me.
“If you can’t own all of them, at least own some of them…”
“buying anywhere around these levels or lower makes sense to me.”
I agree. Nailing the bottom perfectly is a matter of luck, not skill. There is all kind of uncertainty about where the gold price, and PM miners, will go from here until tomorrow or next week.
But from here to the peak of the next upleg in PM miners will be a strongly positive trajectory, I believe. That’s about as good as it gets.
Agreed GH. That’s why I start tiering into the position when it’s corrected 20-30%. If a stock goes back 50% like some of the mining stocks have, then it is even easier to start positioning. The next upleg will take us much higher, so the key is to get into at least some position. I’m about 50-60% in at this point, and plan on taking that up to 80% in the next week or so. I’ll save one last tranche for if the metals fall out of bed, but I’m more than half way invested. I’d actually like one further thrust down to deploy my next tranche and then I’d like the next leg higher. Hopefully those Chinese don’t get too carried away next week but if they do, I’ll trim 10-15% into the strength. 🙂
Brixton Metals primary ticker (BBB) was also up 10%, but on the OTC (BXTMF) was down 1.47%. Maybe the OTC will play catch-up to the Canadian ticker next week.
Thanks for the update…..and hard ass et work this week.
Yes, a good reversal to the week for the Silver miners that we often discuss here on the KER
better to own part of a good horse than all of a bad horse
There is no way gold bottomed today. The weekly candle is just too large to be the basis for a swing low.
The best we can hope for is a marginal new low next week. On the weekly chart the lower bollnger and 50 WMA ($1230) are so close, I don’t see how they aren’t hit.
The 100 WMA is at $1205. I don’t think gold gets that low, but it is a realistic possibility.
Sounds reasonable Spanky. Where you been man? It’s been a while.
+1, very reasonable.
I totally agree, Spanky. The weekly gold chart, as well as Matthew’s silver:gold chart posted below, suggest a bit more weakness at least.
I’m still watching out for Flanagan’s targets, which would be roughly 20 in the GDX.
I find this kind of technical analysis ridiculous. How can you say anything about a miner like Oceanagold without looking at what has happened in the Philippines with the DENR audit or the Haile Mine coming online? Oceanagold was hammered the last few months but the DENR is now back tracking and it looks like the Didipio mine will not be shut down as first thought. Looking at the past chart tells you none of this. Rick did the same thing a while ago when he analyzed Royal Gold without any knowledge of news coming out of the Mount Milligan mine and Centerra’s merger. Doing technical analysis on stocks that move on news orbinary events tell you no more than what a rear view mirror tells you when you drive a car. It is an indicator only. You need to see fundamentals first….then look at technicals. If you don’t do this, you are going in to a street fight with one arm tied behind your back.
TA on individual companies is dodgy. Of course company-specific events can throw a wrench in the works of any TA prognosis. That said, if the fundamentals are a go, then TA can help with entries and exits.
+1 GH. I look at the fundamental back drop of a stock first, and any major news flow (bullish or bearish) than can affect the stock in the short to mid term. If everything is plodding right along, then I use technical analysis to assist with entry and exits.
Or going into a fight carrying a briefcase
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/06/altercation-amid-pro-brexit-party-meeting-leaves-rising-star-floored/
I always think of Indiana Jones when a guy pulls a knife and Indiana shoots him!
The silver-gold ratio has precisely retraced 50% of its move up this year and managed to close the week above the 55 and 89 week EMAs but still closed below its uptrend support.
SLV:GLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=p53916317817&a=479600340
The bears were able to stop the CRB from breaking out for the third day in a row:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p69104485612&a=462466862
Commodities versus gold, $CRB:$GOLD, shows another story:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20668651564&a=448425403
But this commodity index shows yet a different picture. I believe GCC is less heavily weighted toward oil. It looks ready for a breather…or a breakout.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC%3AGLD&p=D&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67417549666&a=479694081
OTC metals may have been up but what were the bid/ask spreads? Were they tradable?
I bought half of those stocks for much lower Tues – Thurs, so yeah, they were tradable.
Jason, I just use limit orders, place my stink bids and hope they get filled, or at least partially filled. That way no matter if I’m sidetracked the orders go through. Sometimes I don’t get the whole amount I asked for, but I just keep chipping away at it. (Nibbling as Doc would say).
Oil is interesting, and somewhat surprising….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-07/us-oil-rig-count-rises-15th-straight-week-8-month-highs